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Bayesian inference provides a powerful tool for leveraging observational data to inform model predictions and uncertainties. However, when such data is limited, Bayesian inference may not adequately constrain uncertainty without the use of highly informative priors. Common approaches for constructing informative priors typically rely on either assumptions or knowledge of the underlying physics, which may not be available in all scenarios. In this work, we consider the scenario where data are available on a population of assets/individuals, which occurs in many problem domains such as biomedical or digital twin applications, and leverage this population-level data to systematically constrain the Bayesian prior and subsequently improve individualized inferences. The approach proposed in this paper is based upon a recently developed technique known as data-consistent inversion (DCI) for constructing a pullback probability measure. Succinctly, we utilize DCI to build population-informed priors for subsequent Bayesian inference on individuals. While the approach is general and applies to nonlinear maps and arbitrary priors, we prove that for linear inverse problems with Gaussian priors, the population-informed prior produces an increase in the information gain as measured by the determinant and trace of the inverse posterior covariance. We also demonstrate that the Kullback-Leibler divergence often improves with high probability. Numerical results, including linear-Gaussian examples and one inspired by digital twins for additively manufactured assets, indicate that there is significant value in using these population-informed priors., Comment: Corrected typos

We present a novel method for generating sequential parameter estimates and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in dynamical systems within a data-consistent (DC) framework. The DC framework differs from traditional Bayesian approaches due to the incorporation of the push-forward of an initial density, which performs selective regularization in parameter directions not informed by the data in the resulting updated density. This extends a previous study that included the linear Gaussian theory within the DC framework and introduced the maximal updated density (MUD) estimate as an alternative to both least squares and maximum a posterior (MAP) estimates. In this work, we introduce algorithms for operational settings of MUD estimation in real or near-real time where spatio-temporal datasets arrive in packets to provide updated estimates of parameters and identify potential parameter drift. Computational diagnostics within the DC framework prove critical for evaluating (1) the quality of the DC update and MUD estimate and (2) the detection of parameter value drift. The algorithms are applied to estimate (1) wind drag parameters in a high-fidelity storm surge model, (2) thermal diffusivity field for a heat conductivity problem, and (3) changing infection and incubation rates of an epidemiological model., Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, Code available at https://github.com/UT-CHG/pyDCI

We formulate a novel approach to solve a class of stochastic problems, referred to as data-consistent inverse (DCI) problems, which involve the characterization of a probability measure on the parameters of a computational model whose subsequent push-forward matches an observed probability measure on specified quantities of interest (QoI) typically associated with the outputs from the computational model. Whereas prior DCI solution methodologies focused on either constructing non-parametric estimates of the densities or the probabilities of events associated with the pre-image of the QoI map, we develop and analyze a constrained quadratic optimization approach based on estimating push-forward measures using weighted empirical distribution functions. The method proposed here is more suitable for low-data regimes or high-dimensional problems than the density-based method, as well as for problems where the probability measure does not admit a density. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the performance of the method and to compare with the density-based approach where applicable., Comment: 26 pages, 19 figures

This work presents novel extensions for combining two frameworks for quantifying both aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) and epistemic (i.e., reducible) sources of uncertainties in the modeling of engineered systems. The data-consistent (DC) framework poses an inverse problem and solution for quantifying aleatoric uncertainties in terms of pullback and push-forward measures for a given Quantity of Interest (QoI) map. Unfortunately, a pre-specified QoI map is not always available a priori to the collection of data associated with system outputs. The data themselves are often polluted with measurement errors (i.e., epistemic uncertainties), which complicates the process of specifying a useful QoI. The Learning Uncertain Quantities (LUQ) framework defines a formal three-step machine-learning enabled process for transforming noisy datasets into samples of a learned QoI map to enable DC-based inversion. We develop a robust filtering step in LUQ that can learn the most useful quantitative information present in spatio-temporal datasets. The learned QoI map transforms simulated and observed datasets into distributions to perform DC-based inversion. We also develop a DC-based inversion scheme that iterates over time as new spatial datasets are obtained and utilizes quantitative diagnostics to identify both the quality and impact of inversion at each iteration. Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space theory is leveraged to mathematically analyze the learned QoI map and develop a quantitative sufficiency test for evaluating the filtered data. An illustrative example is utilized throughout while the final two examples involve the manufacturing of shells of revolution to demonstrate various aspects of the presented frameworks., Comment: 35 pages

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of "true" parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs "selective regularization" only in the parameter directions not informed by data. The solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters., Comment: Code: github.com/mathematicalmichael/mud.git

Dynamical systems arise in a wide variety of mathematical models from science and engineering. A common challenge is to quantify uncertainties on model inputs (parameters) that correspond to a quantitative characterization of uncertainties on observable Quantities of Interest (QoI). To this end, we consider a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) with a solution described by a pullback probability measure. We call this an observation-consistent solution, as its subsequent push-forward through the QoI map matches the observed probability distribution on model outputs. A distinction is made between QoI useful for solving the SIP and arbitrary model output data. In dynamical systems, model output data are often given as a series of state variable responses recorded over a particular time window. Consequently, the dimension of output data can easily exceed $\mathcal{O}(1E4)$ or more due to the frequency of observations, and the correct choice or construction of a QoI from this data is not self-evident. We present a new framework, Learning Uncertain Quantities (LUQ), that facilitates the tractable solution of SIPs for dynamical systems. Given ensembles of predicted (simulated) time series and (noisy) observed data, LUQ provides routines for filtering data, unsupervised learning of the underlying dynamics, classifying observations, and feature extraction to learn the QoI map. Subsequently, time series data are transformed into samples of the underlying predicted and observed distributions associated with the QoI so that solutions to the SIP are computable. Following the introduction and demonstration of LUQ, numerical results from several SIPs are presented for a variety of dynamical systems arising in the life and physical sciences. For scientific reproducibility, we provide links to our Python implementation of LUQ and to all data and scripts required to reproduce the results in this manuscript., Comment: 38 pages, 14 figures. Submitted to Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering

A previous study analyzed the convergence of probability densities for forward and inverse problems when a sequence of approximate maps between model inputs and outputs converges in $L^\infty$. This work generalizes the analysis to cases where the approximate maps converge in $L^p$ for any $1\leq p < \infty$. Specifically, under the assumption that the approximate maps converge in $L^p$, the convergence of probability density functions solving either forward or inverse problems is proven in $L^q$ where the value of $1\leq q<\infty$ may even be greater than $p$ in certain cases. This greatly expands the applicability of the previous results to commonly used methods for approximating models (such as polynomial chaos expansions) that only guarantee $L^p$ convergence for some $1\leq p<\infty$. Several numerical examples are also included along with numerical diagnostics of solutions and verification of assumptions made in the analysis.

The response of a vibrating beam to a force depends on many physical parameters including those determined by material properties. Damage caused by fatigue or cracks result in local reductions in stiffness parameters and may drastically alter the response of the beam. Data obtained from the vibrating beam are often subject to uncertainties and/or errors typically modeled using probability densities. The goal of this paper is to estimate and quantify the uncertainty in damage modeled as a local reduction in stiffness using uncertain data. We present various frameworks and methods for solving this parameter determination problem. We also describe a mathematical analysis to determine and compute useful output data for each method. We apply the various methods in a specified sequence that allows us to interface the various inputs and outputs of these methods in order to enhance the inferences drawn from the numerical results obtained from each method. Numerical results are presented using both simulated and experimentally obtained data from physically damaged beams.

We compute approximate solutions to inverse problems for determining parameters in differential equation models with stochastic data on output quantities. The formulation of the problem and modeling framework define a solution as a probability measure on the parameter domain for a given $\sigma-$algebra. In the case where the number of output quantities is less than the number of parameters, the inverse of the map from parameters to data defines a type of generalized contour map. The approximate contour maps define a geometric structure on events in the $\sigma-$algebra for the parameter domain. We develop and analyze an inherently non-intrusive method of sampling the parameter domain and events in the given $\sigma-$algebra to approximate the probability measure. We use results from stochastic geometry for point processes to prove convergence of a random sample based approximation method. We define a numerical $\sigma-$algebra on which we compute probabilities and derive computable estimates for the error in the probability measure. We present numerical results to illustrate the various sources of error for a model of fluid flow past a cylinder., Comment: 26 pages, 24 figures