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Several early childhood obesity prediction models have been developed, but none for New Zealand's diverse population. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting obesity in 4–5-year-old New Zealand children, using parental and infant data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) cohort. Obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI) for age and sex ≥ 95th percentile. Data on GUiNZ children were used for derivation (n = 1731) and internal validation (n = 713). External validation was performed using data from the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy Study (POI, n = 383) and Pacific Islands Families Study (PIF, n = 135) cohorts. The final model included: birth weight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, paternal BMI, and infant weight gain. Discrimination accuracy was adequate [AUROC = 0.74 (0.71–0.77)], remained so when validated internally [AUROC = 0.73 (0.68–0.78)] and externally on PIF [AUROC = 0.74 [0.66–0.82)] and POI [AUROC = 0.80 (0.71–0.90)]. Positive predictive values were variable but low across the risk threshold range (GUiNZ derivation 19–54%; GUiNZ validation 19–48%; and POI 8–24%), although more consistent in the PIF cohort (52–61%), all indicating high rates of false positives. Although this early childhood obesity prediction model could inform early obesity prevention, high rates of false positives might create unwarranted anxiety for families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Improving dietary intake early in life is a common behavioural target in obesity prevention trials. We undertook a systematic review of randomised controlled trials aiming to improve dietary intake of complementary foods during infancy (0–24 months). PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Medline, and PsycInfo were searched for trials focussed on obesity prevention conducted between January 2000 and August 2019 where dietary intake was an outcome. Two reviewers screened studies and extracted data from selected articles. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias 2 tools. The protocol was registered on Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/6srg7/). Seventeen articles from 12 trials were selected for data extraction. Statistically significant group differences in outcomes were observed in 36 of 165 (21.8%) of dietary variables examined. Measurement and analysis of outcomes varied between studies. Overall risk of bias was rated as high, primarily due to missing outcome data. Improving dietary intake at this age appears challenging based on a relatively limited number of studies. Future research could consider dietary pattern analyses, which may provide more meaningful outcomes for this age group. Opportunities exist for further exploration of maternal‐focussed interventions, responsive feeding interventions, and interventions delivered outside of homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]