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Most proteins fold into 3D structures that determine how they function and orchestrate the biological processes of the cell. Recent developments in computational methods for protein structure predictions have reached the accuracy of experimentally determined models. Although this has been independently verified, the implementation of these methods across structural-biology applications remains to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of AlphaFold2 (AF2) predictions in the study of characteristic structural elements; the impact of missense variants; function and ligand binding site predictions; modeling of interactions; and modeling of experimental structural data. For 11 proteomes, an average of 25% additional residues can be confidently modeled when compared with homology modeling, identifying structural features rarely seen in the Protein Data Bank. AF2-based predictions of protein disorder and complexes surpass dedicated tools, and AF2 models can be used across diverse applications equally well compared with experimentally determined structures, when the confidence metrics are critically considered. In summary, we find that these advances are likely to have a transformative impact in structural biology and broader life-science research., Nature Structural & Molecular Biology, 29 (11), ISSN:1545-9993, ISSN:1545-9985

The continual emergence of novel influenza A strains from non-human hosts requires constant vigilance and the need for ongoing research to identify strains that may pose a human public health risk. Since 1999, canine H3 influenza A viruses (CIVs) have caused many thousands or millions of respiratory infections in dogs in the United States. While no human infections with CIVs have been reported to date, these viruses could pose a zoonotic risk. In these studies, the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS) network collaboratively demonstrated that CIVs replicated in some primary human cells and transmitted effectively in mammalian models. While people born after 1970 had little or no pre-existing humoral immunity against CIVs, the viruses were sensitive to existing antivirals and we identified a panel of H3 cross-reactive human monoclonal antibodies (hmAbs) that could have prophylactic and/or therapeutic value. Our data predict these CIVs posed a low risk to humans. Importantly, we showed that the CEIRS network could work together to provide basic research information important for characterizing emerging influenza viruses, although there were valuable lessons learned., Author summary The 2009 influenza pandemic was a stark reminder that ongoing vigilance is critical to protect the public from an influenza pandemic. The continual evolution of influenza viruses and emergence from animal reservoirs, leads to the need to quickly identify strains that pose a public health risk. In these studies, members of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Centers for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (CEIRS) network worked together to demonstrate that the emerging canine H3 influenza viruses posed a low risk to public health and identified several therapeutic options in the event of an emergence. In addition to providing important new basic research, many lessons were learned that may be important in dealing with any emerging disease outbreak.

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines against circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses has been modest in recent years, despite the absence of antigenic drift of HA, the primary vaccine component. Human monoclonal antibodies identified antigenic sites in NA that changed early after the new pandemic virus emerged. The reactivity of ferret antisera demonstrated antigenic drift of A(H1N1)pdm09 NA from 2013 onward. Passive transfer of serum raised against A/California/7/2009 was less effective than ferret serum against the homologous virus in protecting mice against a virus with the NA of more recent virus, A/Michigan/45/2015. Given the long-standing observation that NA-inhibiting antibodies are associated with resistance against disease in humans, these data demonstrate the importance of evaluating NA drift and suggest that vaccine effectiveness might be improved by selecting viruses for vaccine production that have NAs antigenically similar to those of circulating influenza viruses., The effectiveness of influenza vaccines against circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses was modest for several seasons despite the absence of antigenic drift of hemagglutinin (HA), the primary vaccine component. Since antibodies against HA and neuraminidase (NA) contribute independently to protection against disease, antigenic changes in NA may allow A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses to escape from vaccine-induced immunity. In this study, analysis of the specificities of human NA-specific monoclonal antibodies identified antigenic sites that have changed over time. The impact of these differences on in vitro inhibition of enzyme activity was not evident for polyclonal antisera until viruses emerged in 2013 without a predicted glycosylation site at amino acid 386 in NA. Phylogenetic and antigenic cartography demonstrated significant antigenic changes that in most cases aligned with genetic differences. Typical of NA drift, the antigenic difference is observed in one direction, with antibodies against conserved antigenic domains in A/California/7/2009 (CA/09) continuing to inhibit NA of recent A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses reasonably well. However, ferret CA/09-specific antiserum that inhibited the NA of A/Michigan/45/2015 (MI/15) very well in vitro, protected mice against lethal MI/15 infection poorly. These data show that antiserum against the homologous antigen is most effective and suggest the antigenic properties of NA should not be overlooked when selecting viruses for vaccine production.

We previously showed that single amino acid substitutions at seven positions in hemagglutinin determined major antigenic change of influenza H3N2 virus. Here, the impact of two such substitutions was tested in eleven representative H3 hemagglutinins to investigate context-dependence effects. The antigenic effect of substitutions introduced at hemagglutinin position 145 was fully independent of the amino acid context of the representative hemagglutinins. Antigenic change caused by substitutions introduced at hemagglutinin position 155 was variable and context-dependent. Our results suggest that epistatic interactions with contextual amino acids in the hemagglutinin can moderate the magnitude of antigenic change.

We characterized influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 isolates from large-scale outbreaks that occurred in Nepal and India in early 2015. Although no specific viral features, which may have caused the outbreaks, were identified, an S84N substitution in hemagglutinin was frequently observed. Chronological phylogenetic analysis revealed that these Nepalese and Indian viruses possessing the S84N substitution constitute potential ancestors of the novel genetic subclade 6B.1 virus that spread globally in the following (2015/16) influenza season. Thus, active surveillance of circulating influenza viruses in the Southern Asia region, including Nepal and India, would be beneficial for detecting novel variant viruses prior to their worldwide spread.

The Influenza Research Database (IRD) is a U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)-sponsored Bioinformatics Resource Center dedicated to providing bioinformatics support for influenza virus research. IRD facilitates the research and development of vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics against influenza virus by providing a comprehensive collection of influenza-related data integrated from various sources, a growing suite of analysis and visualization tools for data mining and hypothesis generation, personal workbench spaces for data storage and sharing, and active user community support. Here, we describe the recent improvements in IRD including the use of cloud and high performance computing resources, analysis and visualization of user-provided sequence data with associated metadata, predictions of novel variant proteins, annotations of phenotype-associated sequence markers and their predicted phenotypic effects, hemagglutinin (HA) clade classifications, an automated tool for HA subtype numbering conversion, linkouts to disease event data and the addition of host factor and antiviral drug components. All data and tools are freely available without restriction from the IRD website at https://www.fludb.org.

Swine influenza presents a substantial disease burden for pig populations worldwide and poses a potential pandemic threat to humans. There is considerable diversity in both H1 and H3 influenza viruses circulating in swine due to the frequent introductions of viruses from humans and birds coupled with geographic segregation of global swine populations. Much of this diversity is characterized genetically but the antigenic diversity of these viruses is poorly understood. Critically, the antigenic diversity shapes the risk profile of swine influenza viruses in terms of their epizootic and pandemic potential. Here, using the most comprehensive set of swine influenza virus antigenic data compiled to date, we quantify the antigenic diversity of swine influenza viruses on a multi-continental scale. The substantial antigenic diversity of recently circulating viruses in different parts of the world adds complexity to the risk profiles for the movement of swine and the potential for swine-derived infections in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.001, eLife digest Influenza viruses, commonly called flu, infect millions of people and animals every year and occasionally causes pandemics in humans. The immune system can neutralise flu viruses by recognising the proteins on the virus surface, generically referred to as antigens. These antigens change as flu viruses evolve to escape detection by the immune system. These changes tend to be relatively small such that exposure to one flu virus generates immunity that is still effective against other related flu viruses. However, over time, the accumulation of these small changes can result in larger differences such that prior infections no longer provide protection against the new virus. Influenza A viruses infect a wide variety of birds and mammals. Viruses can also transmit from one species to another, which may result in the introduction of viruses with antigens that are new to the recipient species and which have the potential to cause substantial outbreaks. Pig flu viruses have long been considered to be a potential risk for human pandemic viruses and were the source of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. Importantly, humans often transmit flu viruses to pigs. Understanding the dynamics and consequences of this two-way transmission is important for designing effective strategies to detect and respond to new strains of flu. Influenza A viruses of the H1 and H3 subtypes circulate widely in pigs. However, it was poorly understood how closely related swine and human viruses circulating in different regions were to one another and how much the antigens varied between the different viruses. Lewis, Russell et al. have now analysed the antigenic variation of hundreds of H1 and H3 viruses from pigs on multiple continents. The antigenic diversity of recent swine flu viruses resembles the diversity of H1 and H3 viruses observed in humans over the last 40 years. A key factor driving the diversity of the H1 and H3 viruses in pigs is the frequent introduction of human viruses to pigs. In contrast, only one flu virus from a bird had contributed to the observed antigenic diversity in pigs in a substantial way. Once in pigs, human-derived flu viruses continue to evolve their antigens. This results in a tremendous diversity of flu viruses that can be transmitted to other pigs and also to humans. These flu viruses could pose a serious risk to public health because they are no longer similar to the current human flu strains. These findings have important implications not only for developing flu vaccines for pigs but also for informing the development of more-effective surveillance and disease-control strategies to prevent the spread of new flu variants. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12217.002

Receptor-binding preference and stability of hemagglutinin have been implicated as crucial determinants of airborne transmission of influenza viruses. Here, amino acid substitutions previously identified to affect these traits were tested in the context of an A/H7N9 virus. Some combinations of substitutions, most notably G219S and K58I, resulted in relatively high affinity for α2,6-linked sialic acid receptor and acid and temperature stability. Thus, the hemagglutinin of the A/H7N9 virus may adopt traits associated with airborne transmission.

UNLABELLED: The majority of currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are antigenically similar to the virus that caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. However, antigenic variants are expected to emerge as population immunity increases. Amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein can result in escape from neutralizing antibodies, affect viral fitness, and change receptor preference. In this study, we constructed mutants with substitutions in the hemagglutinin of A/Netherlands/602/09 in an attenuated backbone to explore amino acid changes that may contribute to emergence of antigenic variants in the human population. Our analysis revealed that single substitutions affecting the loop that consists of amino acid positions 151 to 159 located adjacent to the receptor binding site caused escape from ferret and human antibodies elicited after primary A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. The majority of these substitutions resulted in similar or increased replication efficiency in vitro compared to that of the virus carrying the wild-type hemagglutinin and did not result in a change of receptor preference. However, none of the substitutions was sufficient for escape from the antibodies in sera from individuals that experienced both seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1) virus infections. These results suggest that antibodies directed against epitopes on seasonal A(H1N1) viruses contribute to neutralization of A(H1N1)pdm09 antigenic variants, thereby limiting the number of possible substitutions that could lead to escape from population immunity. IMPORTANCE: Influenza A viruses can cause significant morbidity and mortality in humans. Amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein can result in escape from antibody-mediated neutralization. This allows the virus to reinfect individuals that have acquired immunity to previously circulating strains through infection or vaccination. To date, the vast majority of A(H1N1)pdm09 strains remain antigenically similar to the virus that caused the 2009 influenza pandemic. However, antigenic variants are expected to emerge as a result of increasing population immunity. We show that single amino acid substitutions near the receptor binding site were sufficient to escape from antibodies specific for A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses but not from antibodies elicited in response to infections with seasonal A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. This study identified substitutions in A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses that support escape from population immunity but also suggested that the number of potential escape variants is limited by previous exposure to seasonal A(H1N1) viruses.

Influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in eastern China in February 2013 and continues to circulate in this region, but its ecology is poorly understood. In April 2013, the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) implemented environmental and human syndromic surveillance for the virus. Environmental samples from poultry markets in 21 city CDCs (n=8,942) and respiratory samples from persons with influenza-like illness or pneumonia (n=32,342) were tested; viruses isolated from 6 environmental samples and 16 patients were sequenced. Sequence analysis showed co-circulation of 4 influenza A(H7N9) virus strains that evolved by reassortment with avian influenza A(H9N2) viruses circulating in this region. In addition, an increase in human cases starting in late 2013 coincided with an increase in influenza A H7 virus isolates detected by environmental surveillance. Co-circulation of multiple avian influenza viruses that can infect humans highlights the need for increased surveillance of poultry and potential environmental sources.

Polymorphisms in ovine PrP at amino acid residues 141 and 154 are associated with susceptibility to ovine prion disease: Leu141Arg154 with classical scrapie and Phe141Arg154 and Leu141His154 with atypical scrapie. Classical scrapie is naturally transmissible between sheep, whereas this may not be the case with atypical scrapie. Critical amino acid residues will determine the range or stability of structural changes within the ovine prion protein or its functional interaction with potential cofactors, during conversion of PrPC to PrPSc in these different forms of scrapie disease. Here we computationally identified that regions of ovine PrP, including those near amino acid residues 141 and 154, displayed more conservation than expected based on local structural environment. Molecular dynamics simulations showed these conserved regions of ovine PrP displayed genotypic differences in conformational repertoire and amino acid side-chain interactions. Significantly, Leu141Arg154 PrP adopted an extended beta sheet arrangement in the N-terminal palindromic region more frequently than the Phe141Arg154 and Leu141His154 variants. We supported these computational observations experimentally using circular dichroism spectroscopy and immunobiochemical studies on ovine recombinant PrP. Collectively, our observations show amino acid residues 141 and 154 influence secondary structure and conformational change in ovine PrP that may correlate with different forms of scrapie.

Polymorphisms in ovine PrP at amino acid residues 141 and 154 are associated with susceptibility to ovine prion disease: Leu141Arg154 with classical scrapie and Phe141Arg154 and Leu141His154 with atypical scrapie. Classical scrapie is naturally transmissible between sheep, whereas this may not be the case with atypical scrapie. Critical amino acid residues will determine the range or stability of structural changes within the ovine prion protein or its functional interaction with potential cofactors, during conversion of PrPC to PrPSc in these different forms of scrapie disease. Here we computationally identified that regions of ovine PrP, including those near amino acid residues 141 and 154, displayed more conservation than expected based on local structural environment. Molecular dynamics simulations showed these conserved regions of ovine PrP displayed genotypic differences in conformational repertoire and amino acid side-chain interactions. Significantly, Leu141Arg154 PrP adopted an extended beta sheet arrangement in the N-terminal palindromic region more frequently than the Phe141Arg154 and Leu141His154 variants. We supported these computational observations experimentally using circular dichroism spectroscopy and immunobiochemical studies on ovine recombinant PrP. Collectively, our observations show amino acid residues 141 and 154 influence secondary structure and conformational change in ovine PrP that may correlate with different forms of scrapie.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are genetically highly variable and have diversified into multiple phylogenetic clades over the past decade. Antigenic drift is a well-studied phenomenon for seasonal human influenza viruses, but much less is known about the antigenic evolution of HPAI H5N1 viruses that circulate in poultry. In this study, we focused on HPAI H5N1 viruses that are enzootic to Indonesia. We selected representative viruses from genetically distinct lineages that are currently circulating and determined their antigenic properties by hemagglutination inhibition assays. At least six antigenic variants have circulated between 2003, when H5N1 clade 2.1 viruses were first detected in Indonesia, and 2011. During this period, multiple antigenic variants cocirculated in the same geographic regions. Mutant viruses were constructed by site-directed mutagenesis to represent each of the circulating antigenic variants, revealing that antigenic differences between clade 2.1 viruses were due to only one or very few amino acid substitutions immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Antigenic variants of H5N1 virus evaded recognition by both ferret and chicken antibodies. The molecular basis for antigenic change in clade 2.1 viruses closely resembled that of seasonal human influenza viruses, indicating that the hemagglutinin of influenza viruses from different hosts and subtypes may be similarly restricted to evade antibody recognition., IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are responsible for severe outbreaks in both commercial and backyard poultry, causing considerable economic losses and regular zoonotic transmissions to humans. Vaccination is used increasingly to reduce the burden of HPAI H5N1 virus in poultry. Influenza viruses can escape from recognition by antibodies induced upon vaccination or infection through genetic changes in the hemagglutinin protein. The evolutionary patterns and molecular basis of antigenic change in HPAI H5N1 viruses are poorly understood, hampering formulation of optimal vaccination strategies. We have shown here that HPAI H5N1 viruses in Indonesia diversified into multiple antigenic variants, that antigenic differences were due to one or a very few substitutions near the receptor binding site, and that the molecular basis for antigenic change was remarkably similar to that for seasonal human influenza viruses. These findings have consequences for future vaccination and surveillance considerations and contribute to the understanding of the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses.

Comparisons of residues between sub-types of influenza virus is increasingly used to assess the zoonotic potential of a circulating strain and for comparative studies across subtypes. An analysis of N-terminal cleavage sites for thirteen subtypes of influenza A hemagglutinin (HA) sequences, has previously been described by Nobusawa and colleagues. We have expanded this analysis for the eighteen known subtypes of influenza. Due to differences in the length of HA, we have included strains from multiple clades of H1 and H5, as well as strains of H5 and H7 subtypes with both high and low pathogenicity. Analysis of known structures of influenza A HA enables us to define amino acids which are structurally and functionally equivalent across all HA subtypes using a numbering system based on the mature HA sequence. We provide a list of equivalences for amino acids which are known to affect the phenotype of the virus.

Wild waterfowl form the main reservoir of influenza A viruses, from which transmission occurs directly or indirectly to various secondary hosts, including humans(1). Direct avian-to-human transmission has been observed for viruses of subtypes A(H5N1), A(H7N2), A(H7N3), A(H7N7), A(H9N2) and A(H10N7) upon human exposure to poultry(2-7), but a lack of sustained human-to-human transmission has prevented these viruses from causing new pandemics. Recently, avian A(H7N9) viruses were transmitted to humans, causing severe respiratory disease and deaths in China(8). Because transmission via respiratory droplets and aerosols (hereafter referred to as airborne transmission) is the main route for efficient transmission between humans, it is important to gain an insight into airborne transmission of the A(H7N9) virus. Here we show that although the A/Anhui/1/2013 A(H7N9) virus harbours determinants associated with human adaptation and transmissibility between mammals, its airborne transmissibility in ferrets is limited, and it is intermediate between that of typical human and avian influenza viruses. Multiple A(H7N9) virus genetic variants were transmitted. Upon ferret passage, variants with higher avian receptor binding, higher pH of fusion, and lower thermostability were selected, potentially resulting in reduced transmissibility. This A(H7N9) virus outbreak highlights the need for increased understanding of the determinants of efficient airborne transmission of avian influenza viruses between mammals.

Background Genome-wide association studies of common diseases for common, low penetrance causal variants are underway. A proportion of these will alter protein sequences, the most common of which is the non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (nsSNP). It would be an advantage if the functional effects of an nsSNP on protein structure and function could be predicted, both for the final identification process of a causal variant in a disease-associated chromosome region, and in further functional analyses of the nsSNP and its disease-associated protein. Results In the present report we have compared and contrasted structure- and sequence-based methods of prediction to over 5500 genes carrying nearly 24,000 nsSNPs, by employing an automatic comparative modelling procedure to build models for the genes. The nsSNP information came from two sources, the OMIM database which are rare (minor allele frequency, MAF, < 0.01) and are known to cause penetrant, monogenic diseases. Secondly, nsSNP information came from dbSNP125, for which the vast majority of nsSNPs, mostly MAF > 0.05, have no known link to a disease. For over 40% of the nsSNPs, structure-based methods predicted which of these sequence changes are likely to either disrupt the structure of the protein or interfere with the function or interactions of the protein. For the remaining 60%, we generated sequence-based predictions. Conclusion We show that, in general, the prediction tools are able distinguish disease causing mutations from those mutations which are thought to have a neutral affect. We give examples of mutations in genes that are predicted to be deleterious and may have a role in disease. Contrary to previous reports, we also show that rare mutations are consistently predicted to be deleterious as often as commonly occurring nsSNPs.

Voronoi tessellation has proved to be a useful tool in protein structure analysis. But a versatile, public-domain tool for calculating and visualizing tessellations at various levels of granularities is not available. To meet this requirement, we developed PROVAT, a set of Python scripts, which integrate freely available specialized software (Qhull, Gromacs, Pymol etc.) into a pipeline that can be easily manipulated at command-line or web-server.

Background Although comparative modelling is routinely used to produce three-dimensional models of proteins, very few automated approaches are formulated in a way that allows inclusion of restraints derived from experimental data as well as those from the structures of homologues. Furthermore, proteins are usually described as a single conformer, rather than an ensemble that represents the heterogeneity and inaccuracy of experimentally determined protein structures. Here we address these issues by exploring the application of the restraint-based conformational space search engine, RAPPER, which has previously been developed for rebuilding experimentally defined protein structures and for fitting models to electron density derived from X-ray diffraction analyses. Results A new application of RAPPER for comparative modelling uses positional restraints and knowledge-based sampling to generate models with accuracies comparable to other leading modelling tools. Knowledge-based predictions are based on geometrical features of the homologous templates and rules concerning main-chain and side-chain conformations. By directly changing the restraints derived from available templates we estimate the accuracy limits of the method in comparative modelling. Conclusion The application of RAPPER to comparative modelling provides an effective means of exploring the conformational space available to a target sequence. Enhanced methods for generating positional restraints can greatly improve structure prediction. Generation of an ensemble of solutions that are consistent with both target sequence and knowledge derived from the template structures provides a more appropriate representation of a structural prediction than a single model. By formulating homologous structural information as sets of restraints we can begin to consider how comparative models might be used to inform conformer generation from sparse experimental data.