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Stock prices have soared in the last few years, and the debate between those who claim that investors are paying too much and those who believe stocks are worth even more continues unabated. Because stock prices are determined by people's perceptions of their worth, and these, in turn, are based on their predictions for the future, the possibility that expectations will exceed reality always exists. While we cannot know for certain whether the market is over-or undervalued, we can clarify the factors that determine stock prices and discover the assumptions which underly our expectations. Assessing the consistency of our assumptions may keep our exuberance in check., '... how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions? ... We have not been able, as yet, [...]

Political and economic developments helped equities in the US reach a value of $10 trillion in 1997, ten times the value of equities in 1982. The stock market has continually hit new highs in 1997 because of a good economy. The popularity of mutual funds contributes to the high valuation as well.

The bull market will continue through October-November (the election period) of 1996. A bear market is inevitable but unlikely until 1997. Understanding when a stock has cratered, hit its cyclical low before rebounding, is instructive in understanding the overall market cycles.

Traditional market analysts have suggested stock assets are superior to all other forms of investment, with around 9% in annual returns. However, it must be noted that such results assume investors to place their money in the market for extended time periods. Thus, a balanced portfolio must also have holdings in bonds and cash to ensure financial safety. The 1929 stock market crash and the ensuing Great Depression has made investors more cautious in evaluating and reacting to bull and bear periods.

Ned Davis, owner of Ned Davis Research sees increasing risks as the bullish market continues to rise. Although not predicting a crash, he compares the behavior of the market since January 1995, with its behavior in 1929 just before the crash. Davis' advice is to be half invested at this time.

A study was conducted comparing the relationship between dividend yields and stock returns across bear and bull markets. A total of 1,107 companies that have uninterrupted records for dividends, prices and firm size in the 1988 Compustat PDE and INDUSTRIAL tapes from Jan 1969 to Dec 1984 were used as sample. The long-run, annual-basis used by Donald Keim was adopted as yield measure. An alternative dividend yield measure that excludes extra dividends was also utilized. The January effect, market risk and firm size were controlled for. Results show that there is a positive relationship between average monthly stock returns and dividend yields during bear markets while a negative relationship exists between the average monthly stock returns and dividend yields during bull markets. High-yield stocks do better during bear markets than a constant-coefficient market model will predict and are therefore more resistant to market declines than low-yield stocks.

The first correction in the 14-month-old U.S. bull market which happened in the week ended May 21, 2010 is attributed to investor worry about Europe's belt-tightening and credit constriction in China. The prospects of the lumber industry and United Technologies is also discussed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5 percent or 247 points for the week ending November 13, 2009 and one investment officer believes that the market's inertia has support unless there are widespread data to cause investors to change their outlook. The shares of FMC have lagged but the company could benefit from a big rebound in U.S. economic growth.

Stocks fell 1.8 percent for the week ending October 2, 2009 and after rallying 58 percent since March, the first leg of this rally was run by the fiscal stimulus and the consumers and business spending may need to run the next leg of this rally. The prospects of the shares of Yum Brands are also discussed.

Although trend following has been a popular trading philosophy for many years, surprisingly little has been written about its origins and history. This is partly due, no doubt, to the [...]

Eighty-four percent of stocks have risen above their 50-day moving averages which is a sign for at least a pause in the five-week stock market rally leading up to April 10, 2009. The Federal Reserve's plan to buy more than $1 trillion in mortgage securities could force mortgage rates lower. The performance of the shares of BB&T are also discussed.

The U.S. stock market rose 17 percent for the week ending March 20, 2009 and traders reckon that at least one or more banks must fail the government's stress test to be credible. What makes this rally different from its predecessors is that it is spearheaded by financial stocks.

The recent Barron's Smart Money survey of institutional investors revealed that 75 per cent believe that 1992 will bring an improved stock market. Most are convinced that the economic recovery has begun and that market indexes will rise 15 per cent next year. A bull market is forecast.

The earning reports of January 2005 from important companies and audacious mergers involving blue chip companies offered great opportunities for the bulls. However, the result of this was a virtually flat market, as most every upside foray was met with a headwind of selling.

The technological charge of the 1990s, led by information technology and the phenomena! rise of the dot-coms, triggered a remarkable bull market. In 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Index stood [...]

In the US, stock markets have roared to life again moving ahead of other markets and there seems no imminent end to the bull market run that began in March 2003. However, Australians are advised to keep away from destructive investment behavior, the key level advised is $2 and any strong move below that would be very bearish and it would be best to run, not walk, for the exits.

Bonds are a risky investment in mid-2003.

Analysis of several prominent stock indices following the technology-mediated collapse of equities in 2000-2001 is presented. The Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Composite, and Standard and Poor's 500 provide a reliable basis to forecast performance for the remainder of the year. Financial services and pharmaceuticals are the most inviting, but stubborn unemployment and disappointing profits in most industries continue to drag valuations down.

Tom Galvin, chief investment officer for Donaldson Lufkin and Jenrette, describes why he believes the stock market is still very bullish. He believes the stock market will continue to experience some declines, but that overall market conditions are still strong. He examines economic conditions as well.

The value of the stock market has declined 18% since its peak in Jul 1998, which puts the market on the verge of entering a bear market. Some analysts believe the bear market will not emerge and that the bull market will recover, although not to the degree at which it has performed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the other two US markets hit record highs in Jul 1998, elating investors. Solid earnings reports from numerous companies drove the spike. Some analysts, however, are advising caution.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 309 points during the week of Nov. 17-21, 1997, fueling hopes that the market's Oct '97 woes were finally behind Wall Street. However, most mutual funds still lag behind the resurgent S&P 500 stock index.

The urge for corporate profits downplayed the effect of Greenspan's long-term forecast that the bull market may be running out. The financial situation of several companies is examined. They include General Electric, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford Motors and North Fork Bancorp.

The stock market broke another record on Jul 11, 1997. Its 24% gain since Apr 11, 1997, marks its strongest 3-month advance since Nov 1982. Because stocks are trading at an average of six times book value, such a rally was unexpected.

What many considered to be the beginning of a serious market correction turned out to be a small bump. A plunge of close to 10% frightened some investors, but the Dow was back up to 7071 by May 2, 1997. Several specific companies are discussed.

Continued economic growth caused the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates in Mar 1997 and analysts who believe the stock market will enter a bear phase may have been proven wrong. The correction experienced by the bull market was based on the valuation of stocks, not fundamentals.

A variety of formerly high-flying stocks and growth funds, that glided upward into 1996 on market momentum and earnings growth, have been losing money for nearly a year. Managers of funds such as PIMCO Opportunity, PBHG Growth, and Parkstone Small Cap commiserate.

Strong corporate earnings reports, along with moderate job creation and inflation data, helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 to soar higher. The Nasdaq index fell 22 points, as dominant index firms such as 3Com, Cisco Systems, Intel and Microsoft all retreated.

The continued bull market has caused many investors to be overconfident of the buy-and-hold strategy. However, a look at past bear markets shows that it would not be prudent for investors to hold indefinitely because of the potential risk involved. A brief overview of volatility analysis and how it can be used to predict market behavior is presented., The consistently record-breaking stock market continues to baffle and entice traders, many of whom think the bull will never stop. Here we take a hard look at past bear markets [...]