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We use unique survey data from Bulgaria to investigate the effect of recent bailouts on the perceived benefits of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU). The data show that the EMU is perceived as an insurance mechanism where member states can receive financial assistance in times of crisis. Notwithstanding the conditions attached to such help and the expected negative impacts of adopting the euro on the economy, the perception drives the public support for eurozone membership in Bulgaria. Comparative Economic Studies (2014) 56, 452-468. doi:10.1057/ces.2014.1; published online 6 March 2014 Keywords: euro, European Monetary Union, survey data, Bulgaria JEL Classification: F33, E5, INTRODUCTION Countries deciding whether or not to join a monetary union have to weigh the benefits of greater economic integration against the loss of independent monetary policy. A number of [...]

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility of a fixed exchange rate regime grows over time partly because fewer people pay attention to the workings of the monetary regime. These results are derived in a rules-versus-discretion model of a fixed exchange rate regime with heterogeneous agents, We provide unique supporting evidence using data on expectations and information about the monetary regime from Bulgaria's currency board. JEL classification: E5 F3 Keywords: Endogenous inattention Fixed-exchange-rate credibility Heterogeneous expectations Currency boards

The article examines the domestic reasons for the lagging behind of Eastern European countries like Bulgaria and Romania in complying with the European Union (EU) accession criteria, and the limits of the EU's leverage in the matter.

Movement from 'Partial-Reform Equilibrium' (PRE) to 'Equilibrium of Competitive Capture' is analyzed in the light of Bulgaria's experience. It was observed that in post-communist political economies there are more paths out of state capture and more actors competing for influence than predicted by the PRE argument.

The effects of economic liberalization on the domestic markets and economy of Bulgaria and Poland are discussed and analyzed. The impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations during transition phase is examined.

Monthly data from a panel of households in Bulgaria in 1994 is studied to analyze the extent to which the households are able to protect their consumption, from fluctuations in real income. The study revealed that households smooth food consumption by adjusting their non-food expenditures and by borrowing through formal and informal credit markets.

The determinants of wages of employees in the private and public sectors in Bulgaria using 1995 data are investigated. It is revealed that individuals have a lower probability of employment in the private sector if they have more experience, if they have higher education, and if they are ethnic Bulgarians.

The Currency Board Authority did resolve Bulgaria's financial crisis during 19996-7.

In transitioning to a market economy, Bulgaria has developed a larger wage gap between men and women.

In the early 1990s people in emerging markets were thrilled to be showered with a confetti of colorful western advertising images. But, in those exhilarating early post-wall years, ads were [...]

The author is with the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology in Berlin. This paper was presented at the conference 'Eine unterschatzte Dimension? Zur Rolle wirtschaftskultureller Faktoren in der osteuropaischen Transformation' in Bremen December 7-8, 1998. The author would like to thank the participants of this conference and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions on an earlier draft. The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the author., ********** The Heterogeneity of Progress and Performance Assuming that Central and Eastern Europe lacked the political, legal, economic, and social institutions of a market economy, it has generally been argued [...]

Byline: Tihomir Enev (1), Kenneth Koford (1) Keywords: incomes policies; transition; Bulgaria; Poland Abstract: Transition countries, and many other countries with incomplete markets, have faced long periods with both high inflation and unemployment. Policies to reduce inflation without high unemployment include incomes policies, which were widely employed in transition countries. This paper studies the effects of incomes policies on inflation in Bulgaria and Poland in 1990-1993. The actual policies, which were complex and changing, are examined. The policies do not appear well-designed in a technical sense to reduce inflation. A time-series analysis is made which includes standard determinants of inflation including past inflation, wage increases, exchange rate changes, and monetary changes, plus a dummy for incomes policies. The regressions are fairly successful in fitting standard factors that should influence inflation, particularly the exchange rate and unemployment in Bulgaria and wages and unemployment in Poland. They find a fairly substantial inflation-reducing effect from the Bulgarian policy but no significant results from the Polish policy. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19716, U.S.A. Article History: Registration Date: 08/10/2004

A study of the Bulgarian rose-oil trade between 1771 and 1941 is presented. Rose oil, an essential oil made by distilling rose flowers and re-distilling the rose water in turn, provided indispensable feedstock for perfumes in the 19th century, and Bulgaria was its primary international source until the 1970s. Evidence is presented tracing the history of rose essence and its discovery by European traders; by 1787 the town of Grasse was exporting the product throughout Europe. Production trends are tracked. Political upheavals periodically affected the trade, especially the collapse of Ottoman rule Areal yields began declining in the 1880s. Adulteration and eventual competition from synthetic materials are discussed extensively. Mercantile agents collected oil from growers and bulked it immediately; adulteration was so heavy that the best available had only 20 percent palmarosa, the active ingredient. The transition to synthetics was slow, and all rose oil was distilled in simple peasant stills until 1903, when industrial distilleries emerged. Crisis began in the 1930s due to political problems, economic weakness and eventually World War II. Statistical tables and charts are included.

This paper describes Bulgarian macroeconomic performance from early 1991 through early 1997 and provides insights into the macroeconomics of unsatisfactory performance and the political-economy of poor decision-making. There are two leitmotifs: failure to face structural problems and inherited foreign debt; the factors generating Bulgaria's business cycle were interest rate policy and the IMF's varying standoffishness. Bulgaria's macroeconomic problems were unusual in that the flawed policy regime involved interest rate policy, and the collapse of the lev in 1996 and 1997 was not preceded by growing current account imbalances. The political economy of the situation was distinctive because the cycle was driven by monetary policy and because of the large role played by international financial institutions. We find a model by Roberto Perotti of shifting coalitions among three interest groups -- rich, poor, and middle class segments -- in a poor, inegalitarian society relevant for explaining Bulgarian events., Introduction Bulgaria's macroeconomic performance between the fall of communism and early 1997 was singularly poor. It is the only former Soviet satellite where governments of both left and right proved [...]

Bulgaria's economy may be headed for an economic collapse if it does not reinforce its economic developments with a dynamic social policy. Market mechanisms and institutions are critical to the revitalization of economic development in the country. Furthermore, Bulgaria should not expect to curb inflation with the introduction of a monetary board, since inflation will probably maintain its high level in the first few years after the introduction of the currency board., The mid-1990s: Bulgaria facing a turning point in its economic development? Since the late 1980s the year 1995s the year 1995 provided the best conditions ever for a turn in [...]

The weakening of social integration and anomie are unavoidable in the transformation of societies. The effect is a decrease of quality of life accompanied by disenchantments, aggressiveness and escapism. In some countries in Eastern Europe like Bulgaria the anomie effects of transformation became particularly strong. The major reason is the political instability. The dissolution of the previous state-centered over-integration of society developed into a dissolution of major mechanisms of political integration. The prospects for improvement of quality of life are focused on the balance of economic, political and cultural re-integration of Bulgarian society. KEY WORDS: transformation, anomie, social integration, state, quality of life

Byline: Will Bartlett (1), Rossitsa Rangelova (2) Abstract: The pace of transition to a market economy has been slower in Bulgaria than in some other east European countries in the 1990s. Output levels in the state owned sector, which has not yet been subject to mass privatisation, have fallen sharply and there has been a dramatic increase in unemployment. There has however also been a rapid growth in the number of small firms, and the ability of this sector to generate new jobs will be an important component of labour market dynamics in the future. Some of the main characteristics of this emergent sector are identified on the basis of a sample survey of nearly 400 small Bulgarian firms, covering competitiveness, entrepreneurship, innovation, networking, labour relations and business performance of the small firms. Key features of a subset of small firms with an orientation towards employment growth are identified. Author Affiliation: (1) School for Policy Studies, University of Bristol, United Kingdom (2) Institute of Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria Article History: Registration Date: 29/09/2004

Podkaminer's hypothesis postulates what will happen as a result of comprehensive price liberalization in economies previously subjected to widespread price regulation. The hypothesis was confirmed in the Bell and Rostowski study of Poland. The same hypothesis applied in Bulgaria yielded conclusions along the lines suggested by Podkaminer but with significant differences. The differences in results were attributed to limitations posed by government manipulation in price liberalization., Bell & Rostowski (1995) undertake an empirical test of Podkaminer's hypothesis that administered food prices in Poland during the period 1965-78 were substantially higher, and the administered prices of both [...]

Trader-tourism is a massive survival strategy practiced in East European countries, in this case Bulgaria. 'Trader-tourists' import Turkish goods that are sold at Bulgarian open-air markets. Profit is made by circumventing customs control through the bribing of officials - a loophole facilitated by widespread corruption and engendered 'from above' by the more powerful transitional actors. The picaresque role that former state employees have adopted as present-day trader-tourists accentuates a deficit of legitimacy and absence of normative institutional support. Trader-tourists attempt to overcome this deficit of authority through imaginative treatment (poetization) of entrepreneurial materials in order to attain a reinterpreted form of the previous stability, normativeness, and order. [economic anthropology, trader-tourism, Bulgaria, Balkans, transition]

Bulgaria provided its citizens with a comprehensive social safety net which included retirement and disability pensions, and free health and education services. It also had full employment with highly compressed wages. However, with its transition to a market economy, output declined, wages dropped, and unemployment rose. Meanwhile, self-employment income increased as sharply as unemployment and in-kind income has become a successful coping mechanism, but there was hardly any change in social transfers. Moreover, the social safety net benefits mostly the wrong target, the middle income group. Reforms in social services are clearly needed., Bulgaria is a lower-middle income country with a population of about 8.5 million. In late 1989 it began introducing radical political and economic changes aimed at transforming the country into [...]

In this paper, I reexamine the finding that the collectivization of agriculture in Eastern Europe resulted in its feminization. Using Bulgarian data, I find that, despite an increase in women's formal labor force participation, women remained concentrated in the least-mechanized, low-wage jobs. I argue that the Bulgarian state did little to break the pattern of women's responsibility for household labor and weak income opportunities. Despite its claim of promoting gender equality, the Bulgarian state incorporated women's subordinate role into a development strategy based on the extraction of surplus from agriculture.

While the economic voting literature is extensive, scholars have paid relatively little attention to the question of how or whether the economy affects voting behavior in non-Western democracies. I address this issue by examining national elections in three recent East Central European democracies: Bulgaria, the former Czech and Slovak Federated Republic, and Poland. Using aggregate interregional data, the macroeconomic impact on turnout and voter choice is assessed in elections held from 1990 to 1992. I argue that the effect of economic adversity on turnout is withdrawal and that the effect on party choice is punishment for incumbents held responsible for economic reform and reward for both mainstream and extremist challengers. Implications for the study of elections and the future of electoral politics in East Central Europe are discussed.

The effects of cash social transfers and direct taxation on income distribution in the hitherto communist countries of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia are discussed. Social transfers have been found to decrease income inequality but to a much lesser degree than transfers effected in free market economies. The impact of direct taxation, on the other hand, is proportional to wages earned.