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Mathematical transmission models are useful tools for predicting the magnitude, duration, and severity of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. However, widely used national-level models might not capture [...]

There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of viral pneumonia and bronchiolitis during the first 6 months of life. Placentally transferred antibodies can prevent severe RSV illness, and maternal immunization may reduce illness in young infants. Identification of protective antibody levels facilitates the advancement of vaccine candidates and maternal immunization. Methods We conducted a nested case-control study with 587 Malian mother–infant pairs, followed from birth to age 6 months. RSV cases were infants who developed influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia and were RSV-positive by polymerase chain reaction. Cases were matched to healthy controls and RSV-negative ILI controls. RSV-A and RSV-B neutralizing antibodies were measured in maternal, cord blood, and infant sera at age 3 and 6 months. Results Maternal antibodies were efficiently transferred to infants. Maternal and infant RSV titers were strongly correlated. Infant antibody titers against RSV-A were 3 times higher than those against RSV-B. At birth, infants who remained healthy had significantly higher RSV-A and RSV-B titers compared with infants who subsequently contracted RSV. RSV-A inhibitory concentration (IC)80 titer >239 or RSV-B titer >60 at birth was significantly associated with being a healthy control compared with an RSV case within the first 3 months of life. RSV-A IC80 titers in cord blood were associated with decreased episodes of pneumonia. Conclusions Maternally acquired RSV antibodies were associated with protection of infants against community-detected cases of RSV-ILI and pneumonia. RSV titers in cord blood can predict whether an infant will be infected with RSV or remain uninfected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Few studies describe the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden in African populations, and most have utilized hospital-based surveillance. In Mali, no community-based studies exist of the incidence or epidemiology of RSV infection. This study provides the first estimates of RSV incidence in Mali. Methods In a cohort of infants enrolled in a clinical trial of maternal influenza vaccination, we estimate incidence of RSV-associated febrile illness in the first 6 months of life and identify risk factors for RSV infection and progression to severe disease. Infants (N = 1871) were followed from birth to 6 months of age and visited weekly to detect pneumonia and influenza-like illness. Baseline covariates were explored as risk factors for RSV febrile illness and RSV pneumonia or hospitalization. Results Incidence of RSV illness was estimated at 536.8 per 1000 person-years, and 86% (131/153) of RSV illness episodes were positive for RSV-B. RSV illness was most frequent in the fifth month of life and associated with having older mothers and with lower parity. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalizations was 45.6 per 1000 person-years. Among infants with RSV illness, males were more likely to be hospitalized. The incidence of RSV pneumonia was 29 cases per 1000 person-years. Conclusions In the first 6 months of life, Malian infants have a high incidence of RSV illness, primarily caused by RSV-B. Prevention of early RSV will require passive protection via maternal immunization in pregnancy. Mali is the first country where RSV-B has been identified as the dominant subtype, with potential implications for vaccine development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few data exist on the incidence or duration of natural Plasmodium falciparum infections in high-transmission settings. School-aged children (SAC) carry a disproportionate burden of infections, suggesting either increased incidence or increased duration. We estimated the incidence and duration of unique infections according to age groups. The Mfera Cohort Study (2014–2017) in Malawi had 2 years of follow-up, with 120 participants tested monthly and during sick visits. Blood samples were collected to detect P. falciparum by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction. Positive samples underwent genotyping. Simulation was used to account for high rates of nondetection of infection among low-parasitemia infections, which increase in frequency with age. Adults had significantly fewer unique infections per person per year (median, 2.5) compared with SAC and children younger than 5 years of age (6.3 and 6.6, respectively). Over half of all genotypes were persistent. Infections lasted significantly longer in adults (median, 180 days) and SAC (median, 163 days) compared with children younger than 5 years of age (median, 97 days), after accounting for age-dependent nondetection of infection. SAC acquired new infections at the same rate as children younger than 5 years, but they maintained these infections for longer periods of time, similar to adults. This study provides new insights into P. falciparum infection dynamics that should be considered when designing malaria control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in Malawi; however, the implications of these infections for the burden of malaria illness are unknown. Whether asymptomatic infections eventually progress to malaria illness, persist without causing symptoms, or clear spontaneously remains undetermined. We identified asymptomatic infections and evaluated the associations between persistent asymptomatic infections and malaria illness. Methods Children and adults (N = 120) who presented at a health facility with uncomplicated malaria were followed monthly for 2 years. During follow-up visits, participants with malaria symptoms were tested and, if positive, treated. Samples from all visits were tested for parasites using both microscopy and polymerase chain reaction, and all malaria infections underwent genotyping. Cox frailty models were used to estimate the temporal association between asymptomatic infections and malaria illness episodes. Mixed models were used to estimate the odds of clinical symptoms associated with new versus persistent infections. Results Participants had a median follow-up time of 720 days. Asymptomatic infections were detected during 23% of visits. Persistent asymptomatic infections were associated with decreased risk of malaria illness in all ages (hazard ratio 0.50, P <.001). When asymptomatic infections preceded malaria illness, newly-acquired infections were detected at 92% of subsequent clinical episodes, independent of presence of persistent infections. Malaria illness among children was more likely due to newly-acquired infections (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–1.5) than to persistent infections. Conclusions Asymptomatic P. falciparum infections are associated with decreased incidence of malaria illness, but do not protect against disease when new infection occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]