Search

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed severe threats to global sustainable development. However, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is still lacking. This research quantified the post-COVID-19 SDG progress from 2020 to 2024 using projected GDP growth and population and machine learning models including support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting. The results show that the overall SDG performance declined by 7.7% in 2020 at the global scale, with 12 socioeconomic SDG performance decreasing by 3.0%–22.3% and 4 environmental SDG performance increasing by 1.6%–9.2%. By 2024, the progress of 12 SDGs will lag behind for one to eight years compared to their pre-COVID-19 trajectories, while extra time will be gained for 4 environment-related SDGs. Furthermore, the pandemic will cause more impacts on countries in emerging markets and developing economies than those on advanced economies, and the latter will recover more quickly to be closer to their pre-COVID-19 trajectories by 2024. Post-COVID-19 economic recovery should emphasize in areas that can help decouple economic growth from negative environmental impacts. The results can help government and non-state stakeholders identify critical areas for targeted policy to resume and speed up the progress to achieve SDGs by 2030.

Abstract Understanding the combined effects of risk factors on all-cause mortality is crucial for implementing effective risk stratification and designing targeted interventions, but such combined effects are understudied. We aim to use survival-tree based machine learning models as more flexible nonparametric techniques to examine the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on mortality. More specifically, we (1) study the combined effects between multiple physiological factors and all-cause mortality, (2) identify the five most influential factors and visualize their combined influence on all-cause mortality, and (3) compare the mortality cut-offs with the current clinical thresholds. Data from the 1999–2014 NHANES Survey were linked to National Death Index data with follow-up through 2015 for 17,790 adults. We observed that the five most influential factors affecting mortality are the tobacco smoking biomarker cotinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), plasma glucose, sex, and white blood cell count. Specifically, high mortality risk is associated with being male, active smoking, low GFR, elevated plasma glucose levels, and high white blood cell count. The identified mortality-based cutoffs for these factors are mostly consistent with relevant studies and current clinical thresholds. This approach enabled us to identify important cutoffs and provide enhanced risk prediction as an important basis to inform clinical practice and develop new strategies for precision medicine.

Summary: Population-normalized indicators (e.g., GDP per capita), under the assumption of the indicators scaling linearly with population, are ubiquitously used in national development performance comparison. This assumption, however, is not valid because it may ignore agglomeration effect resulting from nonlinear interactions in socioeconomic systems. Here, we present extensive empirical evidence showing the sub-linear scaling rather than the presumed linear scaling between population and multiple indicators of national development performance. We then develop a theoretical framework based on the scaling rule observed in cities to explore the origin of scaling in countries. Finally, we demonstrate that urbanization plays a pivotal role in transforming national development from limited sub-linear growth to unlimited super-linear growth. This underscores the significance of urbanization in achieving sustained growth and elevating human living standards at the national level. Our findings have the potential to inform policies aimed at promoting equitable inter-country comparison and achieving sustainable development in countries.

The Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) provides a comprehensive concept for the cooperative management of resources. Although the WEN system in cities is intricately connected to socioeconomic activities, relationship between WEN and economic systems remains understudied. This study introduces a tri-dimensional Nexus Pressure Index (NPI) to assess the pressure on WEN system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and city tiers in the urban agglomeration were used to assess the relationship between the characteristics of WEN and economic system. We conducted a case study of 296 cities in China and 1330 counties in the United States from 2012 to 2019. During the 9 year study period, on average, pressure on WEN system have relieved by 22% in China and 27% in the United States, measured by NPI. Cities with most ideal characteristics (low pressure in all dimensions) rank merely in the middle of all eight classes, with GDP per capita 74% and 85% of the highest-GDP-per-capita class in China and the US respectively. Well-performing WEN system does not yield best economic outcomes. High water pressure correlates with better economic performance in the US, while high-energy-pressure cities had GDP per capita about 50% and 70% of the class with highest GDP per capita in China and the US, respectively, suggesting stronger economic constraints from energy stress. Urban agglomeration analysis revealed a negative relationship between WEN and economic performance. NPI in emerging cities is 0.6–1 lower than NPI in regionally-central cities in China, while 0.2–0.5 lower in the US. These results underscore the contradiction between preferred WEN characteristics and higher economic performance, and underpin the resource curse hypothesis at city-level in the two considered giants. A sustainable approach to harmonize WEN and economic system is in urgent need.

Hundreds of indicators are available to monitor progress of countries and regions towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the sheer number of indicators poses unprecedented challenges for data collection and compilation. Here we identify a subset of SDG indicators (principal indicators) that are relatively easy to collect data for and also are representative for all the indicators by considering the complex interrelationship among them. We find 147 principal indicators that can represent at least 90% of the annual variances of 351 SDG indicators in the past (2000–2017) and are expected to do so for the future (2018–2030) with the lowest difficulty of data collection. Our results can guide future investment in building the data infrastructure for SDG monitoring to give priorities to these principal indicators for global comparison.

Monthly variation in accumulation and release of phenolics in bryophytes, and their allelopathic effects are little known despite their ecological significance. We conducted a field transplant experiment to investigate Sphagnum growth and extracellular enzymes that modulate phenolic contents and release along water table level (WTL) gradient. Specifically, we assessed monthly changes in height increment, phenolic release, and allelopathic effect during the growing season, as well as extracellular enzymes at the end of the experiment, for the two Sphagnum species: Sphagnum angustifolium C.E.O. Jensen, 1896, a hollow dwelling species, and Sphagnum magellanicum Bridel, 1798, a hummock species. Both Sphagnum species showed season- and WTL-dependent height increment and released phenolics. Sphagnum angustifolium exhibited negative allelopathy regardless of WTL, while S. magellanicum demonstrated mainly positive allelopathy at high WTL and negative allelopathy at low WTL. The degree of allelopathy was not contingent on phenolic release, but phenolic production was negatively correlated with height growth of the two species at their atypical habitats. Moreover, phenoloxidase or peroxidase did not show high activity at low WTL compared to high WTL. Our findings demonstrate for the first time that the strength and direction of allelopathy in Sphagnum may vary depending on the growing precipitation and temperature, WTL, and inter- and intraspecific trait variability. Longer term experiments may further elucidate the seasonal dynamics and mechanism of Sphagnum allelopathy. Key words: allelopathy, extracellular enzymes, secondary metabolites, moss, peatland, Introduction Allelopathy, the release of chemicals by plants that affect other plants in their environment, can be a major driver in shaping natural plant communities (Wardle et al. 1997; Zackrisson [...]

Abstract Background This study assessed the postoperative morbidity and mortality occurring in the first 30 days after radical gastrectomy by comparing gastric cancer patients who did or did not receive the FOLFOX7 regimen of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods We completed a retrospective analysis of 377 patients after their radical gastrectomies were performed in our department between 2005 and 2009. Two groups of patients were studied: the SURG group received surgical treatment immediately after diagnosis; the NACT underwent surgery after 2-6 cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Results There were 267 patients in the SURG group and 110 patients in the NACT group. The NACT group had more proximal tumours (P = 0.000), more total/proximal gastrectomies (P = 0.000) and longer operative time (P = 0.005) than the SURG group. Morbidity was 10.0% in the NACT patients and 17.2% in the SURG patients (P = 0.075). There were two cases of postoperative death, both in the SURG group (P = 1.000). No changes in complications or mortality rate were observed between the SURG and NACT groups. Conclusion The FOLFOX7 neoadjuvant chemotherapy is not associated with increased postoperative morbidity, indicating that the FOLFOX7 neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a safe choice for the treatment of local advanced gastric cancer.

Premise: The expected concomitant increase in multiple stressors such as herbivory and drought may threaten peatland ecosystems. How Sphagnum, the ecological engineers of peatlands, responds to combined stressors remains largely unexplored. Here we aimed to clarify resource allocations in Sphagnum during concomitant herbivory and drought. Methods: S. magellanicum and S. fuscum were exposed to drought and herbivory together or separately in laboratory experiments and analyzed for growth (biomass production and net photosynthetic rate), defense (phenolics in leachates and phenolics in extraction) and nonstructural carbohydrates (soluble sugar and starch) in relation to untreated controls. Results: Herbivory and drought had significant interactive effects on Sphagnum growth and defense. In both species, drought without herbivory reduced the phenolics in leachate, but with herbivory increased phenolics, indicating a synergistic effect between herbivory and drought on Sphagnum defense. Both stressors significantly decreased biomass production, with the combined stress having a more negative effect. Interestingly, a growth–defense trade‐off was found in the drought treatment of both Sphagnum species, but disappeared in the wet treatment. Conversely, a trade‐off between soluble sugars and phenolics was found in the wet but not in the drought treatment, suggesting that soluble sugars may play a role in inducing the defense and hence mask the growth–defense trade‐off in peat mosses. Conclusions: Our results emphasize that predicting the impact of combined stressors on peat moss traits is complex and challenging. Future models should account for the effects of multiple environmental stressors to guide peatland conservation under climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite their crucial role in determining the fate of seeds, the type and breaking mode of seed dormancy in peatland plants in temperate Asia with a continental monsoon climate are rarely known. Fifteen common peatland plant species were used to test their seed germination response to various dormancy‐breaking treatments, including dry storage (D), gibberellin acid soaking (GA), cold stratification (CS), warm followed cold stratification (WCS), GA soaking + cold stratification (GA + CS) and GA soaking + warm followed cold stratification (GA + WCS). Germination experiment, viability and imbibition test, and morphological observation of embryos were conducted. Of the 15 species, nine showed physiological dormancy (PD), with non‐deep PD being the dominant type. Four species, Angelica pubescens, Cicuta virosa, Iris laevigata, and Iris setosa exhibited morphophysiological dormancy. Two species, Lycopus uniflorus and Spiraea salicifolia, demonstrated nondormancy. Overall, the effect hierarchy of dormancy‐breaking is: CS > GA > WCS > GA + CS > D > GA + WCS. Principal component analysis demonstrated that seed traits, including embryo length: seed length ratio, seed size, and monocot/eudicot divergence, are more likely to influence seed dormancy than environmental factors. Our study suggests that nearly 90% of the tested peatland plant species in the Changbai Mountains demonstrated seed dormancy, and seed traits (e.g. embryo‐to‐seed ratio and seed size) and abiotic environmental factors (e.g. pH and temperature seasonality) are related to germination behavior, suggesting seed dormancy being a common adaptation strategy for the peatland plants in the temperate montane environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural montane peatlands are generally not a significant source of nitrous oxide (N2O) due to environment limitations, including phosphorus (P) scarcity and temperature lowness. Phosphorus enrichment and warming caused by global change are altering these limitations, and are likely to increase the source function of N2O. However, the combined effects of P addition and warming on N2O fluxes and biotic/abiotic factors in peatlands are still uncertain. To address this, we investigated the long-term (12 yrs) effects of P addition (5 and 10 kg ha−1 yr−1) and its interaction with warming on N2O fluxes in a peatland. The results showed that although long-term P addition did not significantly affect the source/sink function of N2O in the peatland, it stimulated enzyme activities and promoted peat decomposition. However, warming amplified the effect of P addition to increase N2O emissions by stimulating enzyme activities and changing soil stoichiometry, so even turned the peatland into a significant source of N2O with an emission of approximate 100 g m−2 during the growing season. Our study suggests that P enrichment against the current background of global warming will enhance the possibility of strong N2O emissions in montane peatlands, which may increase the risk that global warming will be further aggravated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]