Search

To analyze the flow of information online, experts often rely on platform-provided data from social media companies, which typically attribute all resharing actions to an original poster. This obscures the true dynamics of how information spreads online, as users can be exposed to content in various ways. While most researchers analyze data as it is provided by the platform and overlook this issue, some attempt to infer the structure of these information cascades. However, the absence of ground truth about actual diffusion cascades makes verifying the efficacy of these efforts impossible. This study investigates the implications of the common practice of ignoring reconstruction all together. Two case studies involving data from Twitter and Bluesky reveal that reconstructing cascades significantly alters the identification of influential users, therefore affecting downstream analyses in general. We also propose a novel reconstruction approach that allows us to evaluate the effects of different assumptions made during the cascade inference procedure. Analysis of the diffusion of over 40,000 true and false news stories on Twitter reveals that the assumptions made during the reconstruction procedure drastically distort both microscopic and macroscopic properties of cascade networks. This work highlights the challenges of studying information spreading processes on complex networks and has significant implications for the broader study of digital platforms.

The most prominent of the IRAS debris disk systems, $\alpha$ Lyrae (Vega), at a distance of 7.7 pc, has been observed by both the NIRCam and MIRI instruments on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This paper describes NIRCam coronagraphic observations which have achieved F444W contrast levels of 3$\times10^{-7}$ at 1\arcsec\ (7.7 au), 1$\times10^{-7}$ at 2\arcsec\ (15 au) and few $\times 10^{-8}$ beyond 5\arcsec\ (38 au), corresponding to masses of $<$ 3, 2 and 0.5 MJup for a system age of 700 Myr. Two F444W objects are identified in the outer MIRI debris disk, around 48 au. One of these is detected by MIRI, appears to be extended and has a spectral energy distribution similar to those of distant extragalactic sources. The second one also appears extended in the NIRCam data suggestive of an extragalactic nature.The NIRCam limits within the inner disk (1\arcsec\ --10\arcsec) correspond to a model-dependent masses of 2$\sim$3 \mj. \citet{Su2024} argue that planets larger even 0.3 MJup would disrupt the smooth disk structure seen at MIRI wavelengths. Eight additional objects are found within 60\arcsec\ of Vega, but none has astrometric properties or colors consistent with planet candidates. These observations reach a level consistent with expected Jeans Mass limits. Deeper observations achieving contrast levels $<10^{-8}$ outside of $\sim$4\arcsec\ and reaching masses below that of Saturn are possible, but may not reveal a large population of new objects., Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures. accepted for Astronomical Journal

We establish a new Iwasawa theory for the kernel of Frobenius on Jacobians of curves in geometric $\mathbf{Z}_p$-towers over the projective line in characteristic $p$, thereby proving several of the main conjectures of [arXiv:2107.12555]., Comment: 49 pages, comments welcome

In the pursuit of understanding the population of stellar remnants within the Milky Way, we analyze the sample of $\sim 950$ microlensing events observed by the Spitzer Space Telescope between 2014 and 2019. In this study we focus on a sub-sample of nine microlensing events, selected based on their long timescales, small microlensing parallaxes and joint observations by the Gaia mission, to increase the probability that the chosen lenses are massive and the mass is measurable. Among the selected events we identify lensing black holes and neutron star candidates, with potential confirmation through forthcoming release of the Gaia time-series astrometry in 2026. Utilizing Bayesian analysis and Galactic models, along with the Gaia Data Release 3 proper motion data, four good candidates for dark remnants were identified: OGLE-2016-BLG-0293, OGLE-2018-BLG-0483, OGLE-2018-BLG-0662, and OGLE-2015-BLG-0149, with lens masses of $2.98^{+1.75}_{-1.28}~M_{\odot}$, $4.65^{+3.12}_{-2.08}~M_{\odot}$, $3.15^{+0.66}_{-0.64}~M_{\odot}$ and $1.4^{+0.75}_{-0.55}~M_{\odot}$, respectively. Notably, the first two candidates are expected to exhibit astrometric microlensing signals detectable by Gaia, offering the prospect of validating the lens masses. The methodologies developed in this work will be applied to the full Spitzer microlensing sample, populating and analyzing the time-scale ($t_{\rm E}$) vs. parallax ($\pi_{\rm E}$) diagram to derive constraints on the population of lenses in general and massive remnants in particular., Comment: submitted to ApJ

It was shown by B. Allen, R. Perales, and C. Sormani that on a closed manifold where the diameter of a sequence of Riemannian metrics is bounded, if the volume converges to the volume of a limit manifold, and the sequence of Riemannian metrics are $C^0$ converging from below then one can conclude volume preserving Sormani-Wenger Intrinsic Flat convergence. The result was extended to manifolds with boundary by B. Allen and R. Perales by a doubling with necks procedure which produced a closed manifold and reduced the case with boundary to the case without boundary. The consequence of the doubling with necks procedure was requiring a stronger condition than necessary on the boundary. Using the estimates for the Sormani-Wenger Intrinsic Flat distance on manifolds with boundary developed by B. Allen and R. Perales, we show that only a bound on the area of the boundary is needed in order to conclude volume preserving intrinsic flat convergence for manifolds with boundary. We also provide an example which shows that one should not expect convergence without a bound on area., Comment: 12 pages, comments welcome!

Vaccines were critical in reducing hospitalizations and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite their wide availability in the United States, 62% of Americans chose not to be vaccinated during 2021. While online misinformation about COVID-19 is correlated to vaccine hesitancy, little prior work has explored a causal link between real-world exposure to antivaccine content and vaccine uptake. Here we present a compartmental epidemic model that includes vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, and exposure to antivaccine content. We fit the model to observational data to determine that a geographical pattern of exposure to online antivaccine content across US counties is responsible for a pattern of reduced vaccine uptake in the same counties. We find that exposure to antivaccine content on Twitter caused about 750,000 people to refuse vaccination between February and August 2021 in the US, resulting in at least 29,000 additional cases and 430 additional deaths. This work provides a methodology for linking online speech to offline epidemic outcomes. Our findings should inform social media moderation policy as well as public health interventions.

Observations of debris disks offer important insights into the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Though M dwarfs make up approximately 80% of nearby stars, very few M-dwarf debris disks have been studied in detail -- making it unclear how or if the information gleaned from studying debris disks around more massive stars extends to the more abundant M dwarf systems. We report the first scattered-light detection of the debris disk around the M4 star Fomalhaut C using JWST's Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam; 3.6$~\mu$m and 4.4$~\mu$m). This result adds to the prior sample of only four M-dwarf debris disks with detections in scattered light, and marks the latest spectral type and oldest star among them. The size and orientation of the disk in these data are generally consistent with the prior ALMA sub-mm detection. Though no companions are identified, these data provide strong constraints on their presence -- with sensitivity sufficient to recover sub-Saturn mass objects in the vicinity of the disk. This result illustrates the unique capability of JWST for uncovering elusive M-dwarf debris disks in scattered light, and lays the groundwork for deeper studies of such objects in the 2--5$~\mu$m regime., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures

We define a flexible class of Riemmanian metrics on the three-torus. Then, using Stern's inequality relating scalar curvature to harmonic one-forms, we show that any sequence of metrics in this family whose negative part of the scalar curvature tends to zero in $L^2$ norm has a subsequence which converges to some flat metric on the three-torus in the sense of Dong-Song., Comment: In the second version, the abstract is updated; some typos are corrected

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0845, which was affected by both the microlensing parallax and xallarap effects. The former was detected via the simultaneous observations from the ground and Spitzer, and the latter was caused by the orbital motion of the source star in a relatively close binary. The combination of these two effects led to a mass measurement of the lens object, revealing a low-mass ($0.14 \pm 0.05 M_{\odot}$) M-dwarf at the bulge distance ($7.6 \pm 1.0$ kpc). The source binary consists of a late F-type subgiant and a K-type dwarf of $\sim1.2 M_{\odot}$ and $\sim 0.9 M_{\odot}$, respectively, and the orbital period is $70 \pm 10$ days. OGLE-2015-BLG-0845 is the first single-lens event in which the lens mass is measured via the binarity of the source. Given the abundance of binary systems as potential microlensing sources, the xallarap effect may not be a rare phenomenon. Our work thus highlights the application of the xallarap effect in the mass determination of microlenses, and the same method can be used to identify isolated dark lenses., Comment: New version after the review process. Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

In the work by M. C. Lee, A. Naber, and R. Neumayer a beautiful $\varepsilon$-regularity theorem is proved under small negative scalar curvature and entropy bounds. In that paper, the $d_p$ distance for Riemannian manifolds is introduced and the quantitative stability results are given in terms of this notion of distance, with important examples showing why other existing notions of convergence are not adequate in their setting. Due to the presence of an entropy bound, the possibility of long, thin splines forming along a sequence of Riemannian manifolds whose scalar curvature is becoming almost positive is ruled out. It is important to rule out such examples since the $d_p$ distance is not well behaved in the presences of splines that persist in the limit. Since there are many geometric stability conjectures where we want to allow for the presence of splines that persist in the limit, it is crucial to be able to modify the $d_p$ distance to retain its positive qualities and prevent it from being sensitive to splines. In this paper we explore one such modification of the $d_p$ distance and give a theorem which allows one to estimate the modified $d_p$ distance, which we expect to be useful in practice., Comment: 22 pages, To appear in Nonlinear Analysis

We discuss statistical relationships between the mass of protoplanetary disks and the hydrogen deuteride (HD) line emission and the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) determined using 3000 ProDiMo disk models. The models have 15 free parameters describing disk physical properties, the central star, and the local radiation field. The sampling of physical parameters is done using a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate the probability density functions of observables as a function of physical parameters. We find that the HD fractional abundance is almost constant even though the UV flux varies by several orders of magnitude. Probing the statistical relation between the physical quantities and the HD flux, we find that low-mass (optically thin) disks display a tight correlation between the average disk gas temperature and HD line flux, while massive disks show no such correlation. We demonstrate that the central star luminosity, disk size, dust size distribution, and HD flux may be used to determine the disk gas mass to within a factor of three. We also find that the far-IR and sub-mm/mm SEDs and the HD flux may serve as strong constraints for determining the disk gas mass to within a factor of two. If the HD lines are fully spectrally resolved ($R\gtrsim 1.5\times10^6, \Delta v=0.2~\rm km\,s^{-1}$), the 56 $\mu$m and 112 $\mu$m HD line profiles alone may constrain the disk gas mass to within a factor of two., Comment: 31 pages, 16 figures, ApJ accepted, preprint

We report observations with the JWST/NIRCam coronagraph of the Fomalhaut system. This nearby A star hosts a complex debris disk system discovered by the IRAS satellite. Observations in F444W and F356W filters using the round 430R mask achieve a contrast ratio of ~ 4 x 10-7 at 1'' and ~ 4 x 10-8 outside of 3''. These observations reach a sensitivity limit <1 MJup across most of the disk region. Consistent with the hypothesis that Fomalhaut b is not a massive planet but is a dust cloud from a planetesimal collision, we do not detect it in either F356W or F444W (the latter band where a Jovian-sized planet should be bright). We have reliably detected 10 sources in and around Fomalhaut and its debris disk, all but one of which are coincident with Keck or HST sources seen in earlier coronagraphic imaging; we show them to be background objects, including the "Great Dust Cloud" identified in MIRI data. However, one of the objects, located at the edge of the inner dust disk seen in the MIRI images, has no obvious counterpart in imaging at earlier epochs and has a relatively red [F356W]-[F444W]>0.7 mag (Vega) color. Whether this object is a background galaxy, brown dwarf, or a Jovian mass planet in the Fomalhaut system will be determined by an approved Cycle 2 follow-up program. Finally, we set upper limits to any scattered light from the outer ring, placing a weak limit on the dust albedo at F356W and F444W., Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures

The JWST NIRSpec integral field unit (IFU) presents a unique opportunity to observe directly imaged exoplanets from 3-5 um at moderate spectral resolution (R~2,700) and thereby better constrain the composition, disequilibrium chemistry, and cloud properties of their atmospheres. In this work, we present the first NIRSpec IFU high-contrast observations of a substellar companion that requires starlight suppression techniques. We develop specific data reduction strategies to study faint companions around bright stars, and assess the performance of NIRSpec at high contrast. First, we demonstrate an approach to forward model the companion signal and the starlight directly in the detector images, which mitigates the effects of NIRSpec's spatial undersampling. We demonstrate a sensitivity to planets that are 3e-6 fainter than their stars at 1'', or 3e-5 at 0.3''. Then, we implement a reference star point spread function (PSF) subtraction and a spectral extraction that does not require spatially and spectrally regularly sampled spectral cubes. This allows us to extract a moderate resolution (R~2,700) spectrum of the faint T-dwarf companion HD 19467 B from 2.9-5.2 um with signal-to-noise ratio (S/N)~10 per resolution element. Across this wavelength range, HD~19467~B has a flux ratio varying between 1e-5-1e-4 and a separation relative to its star of 1.6''. A companion paper by Hoch et al. more deeply analyzes the atmospheric properties of this companion based on the extracted spectrum. Using the methods developed here, NIRSpec's sensitivity may enable direct detection and spectral characterization of relatively old (~1 Gyr), cool (~250 K), and closely separated (~3-5 au) exoplanets that are less massive than Jupiter., Comment: Accepted to AJ. The data analysis scripts for this work are published https://github.com/jruffio/HD_19467_B (https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.11391740). The main revisions of the manuscript are listed in the change history section of the readme

High-contrast imaging of debris disk systems permits us to assess the composition and size distribution of circumstellar dust, to probe recent dynamical histories, and to directly detect and characterize embedded exoplanets. Observations of these systems in the infrared beyond 2--3 $\mu$m promise access to both extremely favorable planet contrasts and numerous scattered-light spectral features -- but have typically been inhibited by the brightness of the sky at these wavelengths. We present coronagraphy of the AU Microscopii (AU Mic) system using JWST's Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam) in two filters spanning 3--5 $\mu$m. These data provide the first images of the system's famous debris disk at these wavelengths and permit additional constraints on its properties and morphology. Conducting a deep search for companions in these data, we do not identify any compelling candidates. However, with sensitivity sufficient to recover planets as small as $\sim 0.1$ Jupiter masses beyond $\sim 2^{\prime\prime}$ ($\sim 20$ au) with $5\sigma$ confidence, these data place significant constraints on any massive companions that might still remain at large separations and provide additional context for the compact, multi-planet system orbiting very close-in. The observations presented here highlight NIRCam's unique capabilities for probing similar disks in this largely unexplored wavelength range, and provide the deepest direct imaging constraints on wide-orbit giant planets in this very well studied benchmark system., Comment: 27 pages, 14 figures

We present the results of N-body simulations meant to reproduce the long-term effects of mutually inclined exoplanets on debris disks, using the HD 202628 system as a proxy. HD 202628 is a Gyr-old solar-type star that possesses a directly observable, narrow debris ring with a clearly defined inner edge and non-zero eccentricity, hinting at the existence of a sculpting exoplanet. The eccentric nature of the disk leads us to examine the effect on it over Gyr timescales from an eccentric and inclined planet, placed on its orbit through scattering processes. We find that, in systems with dynamical timescales akin to that of HD 202628, a planetary companion is capable of completely tilting the debris disk. This tilt is preserved over the Gyr age of the system. Simulated observations of our models show that an exoplanet around HD 202628 with an inclination misalignment $\gtrsim\,10$ degrees would cause the disk to be observably diffuse and broad, which is inconsistent with ALMA observations. With these observations, we conclude that if there is an exoplanet shaping this disk, it likely had a mutual inclination of less than 5 degrees with the primordial disk. Conclusions of this work can be either applied to debris disks appearing as narrow rings (e.g., Fomalhaut, HR 4796), or to disks that are vertically thick at ALMA wavelengths (e.g., HD 110058)., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures. Accepted in ApJ

Let $Y\to X$ be an unramified Galois cover of curves over a perfect field $k$ of characteristic $p>0$ with $\mathrm{Gal}(Y/X)\cong\mathbb{Z}/p\mathbb{Z}$, and let $J_X$ and $J_Y$ be the Jacobians of $X$ and $Y$ respectively. We consider the $p$-torsion subgroup schemes $J_X[p]$ and $J_Y[p]$, analyze the Galois-module structure of $J_Y[p]$, and find restrictions this structure imposes on $J_Y[p]$ (for example, as manifested in its Ekedahl--Oort type) taking $J_X[p]$ as given., Comment: v1: 45 pages. v2: Corrections and major additions about the local-local factor, sections on explicit geometry and calculations removed. 43 pages

We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover $\sim 13\,{\rm deg}^2$. We report 3 unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the 3 unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275 is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a {\it Spitzer} microlens parallax measurement, $\pi_E \sim 0.045\pm0.015$, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios $q$, and normalized projected separations $s$, of $(\log q,s)$ = $(-2.31,0.61)$, $(-2.06,0.63/1.09)$, $(-2.10,1.04)$, and $(-2.86,0.72)$. Combined with previously published events, the 2017 AnomalyFinder prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured $q$ and one very likely candidate, of which 3 are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in $q$., Comment: 67 pages, 13 figures, 16 tables

Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models can lead to order-of-magnitude performance gains for the same amount of compute. Despite this, systematic tuning is uncommon, particularly for large models, which are expensive to evaluate and tend to have many hyperparameters, necessitating difficult judgment calls about tradeoffs, budgets, and search bounds. To address these issues and propose a practical method for robustly tuning large models, we present Cost-Aware Pareto Region Bayesian Search (CARBS), a Bayesian optimization algorithm that performs local search around the performance-cost Pareto frontier. CARBS does well even in unbounded search spaces with many hyperparameters, learns scaling relationships so that it can tune models even as they are scaled up, and automates much of the "black magic" of tuning. Among our results, we effectively solve the entire ProcGen benchmark just by tuning a simple baseline (PPO, as provided in the original ProcGen paper). We also reproduce the model size vs. training tokens scaling result from the Chinchilla project (Hoffmann et al. 2022), while simultaneously discovering scaling laws for every other hyperparameter, via an easy automated process that uses significantly less compute and is applicable to any deep learning problem (not just language models).

Llarull's Theorem states that any Riemannian metric on the $n$-sphere which has scalar curv{\-}ature greater than or equal to $n(n-1)$, and whose distance function is bounded below by the unit sphere's, is isometric to the unit sphere. Gromov later posed the {\emph{Spherical Stability Problem}}, which probes the flexibility of this fact. We give a resolution to this problem in dimension $3$. Informally, the main result asserts that a sequence of Riemannian $3$-spheres whose distance functions are bounded below by the unit sphere's with uniformly bounded Cheeger isoperimetric constant and scalar curvatures tending to $6$ must approach the round $3$-sphere in the volume preserving Sormani-Wenger Intrinsic Flat sense. The argument is based on a proof of Llarull's Theorem due to Hirsch-Kazaras-Khuri-Zhang using spacetime harmonic functions., Comment: v2: Minor changes made to the exposition of the introduction, 22 pages, 3 figures, comments welcome

Planetary debris disks around other stars are analogous to the Asteroid and Kuiper belts in the Solar System. Their structure reveals the configuration of small bodies and provides hints for the presence of planets. The nearby star Fomalhaut hosts one of the most prominent debris disks, resolved by HST, Spitzer, Herschel, and ALMA. Images of this system at mid-infrared wavelengths using JWST/MIRI not only show the narrow Kuiper-Belt-analog outer ring, but also that (1) what was thought from indirect evidence to be an asteroid-analog structure is instead broad, extending outward into the outer system; (2) there is an intermediate belt, probably shepherded by an unseen planet. The newly discovered belt is demarcated by an inner gap, located at ~ 78 au, and it is misaligned relative to the outer belt. The previously known collisionally generated dust cloud, Fomalhaut b, could have originated from this belt, suggesting increased dynamical stirring and collision rates there. We also discovered a large dust cloud within the outer ring, possible evidence of another dust-creating collision. Taken together with previous observations, Fomalhaut appears to be the site of a complex and possibly dynamically active planetary system., Comment: 17 Figures, 3 tables; includes Supplementary Information package; Published in Nature Astronomy

The solar system's Zodiacal Cloud is visible to the unaided eye, yet the origin of its constituent dust particles is not well understood, with a wide range of proposed divisions between sources in the asteroid belt and Jupiter Family comets. The amount of dust contributed by Oort Cloud comets is uncertain. Knowledge of the Zodiacal Cloud's structure and origins would help with NASA's aim of characterizing potentially Earth-like planets around nearby stars, since the exo-Earths must be studied against the light scattered from extrasolar analogs of our cloud. As the only example where the parent bodies can be tracked, our own cloud is critical for learning how planetary system architecture governs the interplanetary dust's distribution. Our cloud has been relatively little-studied in the near-ultraviolet, a wavelength range that is important for identifying potentially-habitable planets since it contains the broad Hartley absorption band of ozone. We show through radiative transfer modeling that our cloud's shape and size at near-UV wavelengths can be measured from Earth orbit by mapping the zodiacal light's flux and linear polarization across the sky. We quantify how well the cloud's geometric and optical properties can be retrieved from a set of simulated disk observations, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis. The results demonstrate that observations with sufficient precision, covering a set of fields distributed along the ecliptic and up to the poles, can be used to determine the division between asteroidal, Jupiter Family, and Oort Cloud dust components, primarily via their differing orbital inclination distributions. We find that the observations must be repeated over a time span of several months in order to disentangle the zodiacal light from the Galactic background using the Milky Way's rotation across the sky., Comment: submitted to PASP

The Y-dwarf WISE 1828+2650 is one of the coldest known Brown Dwarfs with an effective temperature of $\sim$300 K. Located at a distance of just 10 pc, previous model-based estimates suggest WISE1828+2650 has a mass of $\sim$5-10 Mj, making it a valuable laboratory for understanding the formation, evolution and physical characteristics of gas giant planets. However, previous photometry and spectroscopy have presented a puzzle with the near-impossibility of simultaneously fitting both the short (0.9-2.0 microns) and long wavelength (3-5 microns) data. A potential solution to this problem has been the suggestion that WISE 1828+2650 is a binary system whose composite spectrum might provide a better match to the data. Alternatively, new models being developed to fit JWST/NIRSpec and MIRI spectroscopy might provide new insights. This article describes JWST/NIRCam observations of WISE 1828+2650 in 6 filters to address the binarity question and to provide new photometry to be used in model fitting. We also report Adaptive Optics imaging with the Keck 10 m telescope. We find no evidence for multiplicity for a companion beyond 0.5 AU with either JWST or Keck. Companion articles will present low and high resolution spectra of WISE 1828+2650 obtained with both NIRSpec and MIRI., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, Accepted by ApJ on Feb. 21 2023

We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope., Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables

We observed HD 19467 B with JWST's NIRCam in six filters spanning 2.5-4.6 $\mu m$ with the Long Wavelength Bar coronagraph. The brown dwarf HD 19467 B was initially identified through a long-period trend in the radial velocity of G3V star HD 19467. HD 19467 B was subsequently detected via coronagraphic imaging and spectroscopy, and characterized as a late-T type brown dwarf with approximate temperature $\sim1000$K. We observed HD 19467 B as a part of the NIRCam GTO science program, demonstrating the first use of the NIRCam Long Wavelength Bar coronagraphic mask. The object was detected in all 6 filters (contrast levels of $2\times10^{-4}$ to $2\times10^{-5}$) at a separation of 1.6 arcsec using Angular Differential Imaging (ADI) and Synthetic Reference Differential Imaging (SynRDI). Due to a guidestar failure during acquisition of a pre-selected reference star, no reference star data was available for post-processing. However, RDI was successfully applied using synthetic Point Spread Functions (PSFs) developed from contemporaneous maps of the telescope's optical configuration. Additional radial velocity data (from Keck/HIRES) are used to constrain the orbit of HD 19467 B. Photometric data from TESS are used to constrain the properties of the host star, particularly its age. NIRCam photometry, spectra and photometry from literature, and improved stellar parameters are used in conjunction with recent spectral and evolutionary substellar models to derive physical properties for HD 19467 B. Using an age of 9.4$\pm$0.9 Gyr inferred from spectroscopy, Gaia astrometry, and TESS asteroseismology, we obtain a model-derived mass of 62$\pm 1M_{J}$, which is consistent within 2-$\sigma$ with the dynamically derived mass of 81$^{+14}_{-12}M_{J}$., Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures. Accepted to AAS Journals

We present Hyperion, a mission concept recently proposed to the December 2021 NASA Medium Explorer announcement of opportunity. Hyperion explores the formation and destruction of molecular clouds and planet-forming disks in nearby star-forming regions of the Milky Way. It does this using long-slit, high-resolution spectroscopy of emission from fluorescing molecular hydrogen, which is a powerful far-ultraviolet (FUV) diagnostic. Molecular hydrogen (H2) is the most abundant molecule in the universe and a key ingredient for star and planet formation, but is typically not observed directly because its symmetric atomic structure and lack of a dipole moment mean there are no spectral lines at visible wavelengths and few in the infrared. Hyperion uses molecular hydrogen's wealth of FUV emission lines to achieve three science objectives: (1) determining how star formation is related to molecular hydrogen formation and destruction at the boundaries of molecular clouds; (2) determining how quickly and by what process massive star feedback disperses molecular clouds; and (3) determining the mechanism driving the evolution of planet-forming disks around young solar-analog stars. Hyperion conducts this science using a straightforward, highly-efficient, single-channel instrument design. Hyperion's instrument consists of a 48 cm primary mirror, with an f/5 focal ratio. The spectrometer has two modes, both covering 138.5-161.5 nm bandpasses. A low resolution mode has a spectral resolution of R>10,000 with a slit length of 65 arcmin, while the high resolution mode has a spectral resolution of R>50,000 over a slit length of 5 armin. Hyperion occupies a 2 week long, high-earth, Lunar resonance TESS-like orbit, and conducts 2 weeks of planned observations per orbit, with time for downlinks and calibrations. Hyperion was reviewed as Category I, which is the highest rating possible, but was not selected., Comment: Accepted to JATIS, 9 Figures

Despite impressive successes, deep reinforcement learning (RL) systems still fall short of human performance on generalization to new tasks and environments that differ from their training. As a benchmark tailored for studying RL generalization, we introduce Avalon, a set of tasks in which embodied agents in highly diverse procedural 3D worlds must survive by navigating terrain, hunting or gathering food, and avoiding hazards. Avalon is unique among existing RL benchmarks in that the reward function, world dynamics, and action space are the same for every task, with tasks differentiated solely by altering the environment; its 20 tasks, ranging in complexity from eat and throw to hunt and navigate, each create worlds in which the agent must perform specific skills in order to survive. This setup enables investigations of generalization within tasks, between tasks, and to compositional tasks that require combining skills learned from previous tasks. Avalon includes a highly efficient simulator, a library of baselines, and a benchmark with scoring metrics evaluated against hundreds of hours of human performance, all of which are open-source and publicly available. We find that standard RL baselines make progress on most tasks but are still far from human performance, suggesting Avalon is challenging enough to advance the quest for generalizable RL., Comment: Accepted to NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks 2022. Video and links to all code, data, etc can be found at https://generallyintelligent.com/avalon/

Work of D. Stern and Bray-Kazaras-Khuri-Stern provide differential-geometric identities which relate the scalar curvature of Riemannian 3-manifolds to global invariants in terms of harmonic functions. These quantitative formulas are useful for stability results and show promise for more applications of this type. In this paper, we analyze harmonic maps to flat model spaces in order to address conjectures concerning the geometric stability of the positive mass theorem and the Geroch conjecture. By imposing integral Ricci curvature and isoperimetric bounds, we leverage the previously mentioned formulas to establish strong control on these harmonic maps. When the mass of an asymptotically flat manifold is sufficiently small or when a Riemannian torus has almost non-negative scalar curvature, we upgrade the maps to diffeomorphisms and give quantitative H\"older closeness to the model spaces.

Vaccinations play a critical role in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and other diseases. This study explores COVID-19 vaccine misinformation circulating on Twitter during 2021, when vaccines were being released to the public in an effort to mitigate the global pandemic. Our findings show a low prevalence of low-credibility information compared to mainstream news. However, most popular low-credibility sources had larger reshare volumes than authoritative sources such as the CDC and WHO. We observed an increasing trend in the prevalence of low-credibility news relative to mainstream news about vaccines. We also observed a considerable amount of suspicious YouTube videos shared on Twitter. Tweets by a small group of about 800 "superspreaders" verified by Twitter accounted for approximately 35% of all reshares of misinformation on the average day, with the top superspreader (@RobertKennedyJr) responsible for over 13% of retweets. Low-credibility news and suspicious YouTube videos were more likely to be shared by automated accounts. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that superspreaders are driven by financial incentives that allow them to profit from health misinformation. Despite high-profile cases of deplatformed misinformation superspreaders, our results show that in 2021 a few individuals still played an outsize role in the spread of low-credibility vaccine content. Social media policies should consider revoking the verified status of repeat-spreaders of harmful content, especially during public health crises., Comment: Forthcoming/in press in JMIR

The world's digital information ecosystem continues to struggle with the spread of misinformation. Prior work has suggested that users who consistently disseminate a disproportionate amount of low-credibility content -- so-called superspreaders -- are at the center of this problem. We quantitatively confirm this hypothesis and introduce simple metrics to predict the top superspreaders several months into the future. We then conduct a qualitative review to characterize the most prolific superspreaders and analyze their sharing behaviors. Superspreaders include pundits with large followings, low-credibility media outlets, personal accounts affiliated with those media outlets, and a range of influencers. They are primarily political in nature and use more toxic language than the typical user sharing misinformation. We also find concerning evidence that suggests Twitter may be overlooking prominent superspreaders. We hope this work will further public understanding of bad actors and promote steps to mitigate their negative impacts on healthy digital discourse.

Let $k$ be a perfect field of characteristic $p$ and $\Gamma$ an infinite, first countable pro-$p$ group. We study the behavior of the $p$-primary part of the "motivic class group", i.e. the full $p$-divisible group of the Jacobian, in any $\Gamma$-tower of function fields over $k$ that is unramified outside a finite (possibly empty) set of places $\Sigma$, and totally ramified at every place of $\Sigma$. When $\Sigma=\emptyset$ and $\Gamma$ is a torsion free $p$-adic Lie group, we obtain asymptotic formulae which show that the $p$-torsion class group schemes grow in a remarkably regular manner. In the ramified setting $\Sigma\neq\emptyset$, we obtain a similar asymptotic formula for the $p$-torsion in "physical class groups", i.e. the $k$-rational points of the Jacobian, which generalizes the work of Mazur and Wiles, who studied the case $\Gamma=\mathbf{Z}_p$., Comment: Corollaries 1.4 and 1.5 slightly weakened due to potential mistake in key reference in proof of these results in v1. Remark 3.11 (most of which appeared as a footnote in v1) added, and Remark 3.16 adjusted. Introduction modified to to reflect these changes, and a few typos corrected

We complete the analysis of all 2018 prime-field microlensing planets identified by the KMTNet AnomalyFinder. Among the 10 previously unpublished events with clear planetary solutions, 8 are either unambiguously planetary or are very likely to be planetary in nature: OGLE-2018-BLG-1126, KMT-2018-BLG-2004, OGLE-2018-BLG-1647, OGLE-2018-BLG-1367, OGLE-2018-BLG-1544, OGLE-2018-BLG-0932, OGLE-2018-BLG-1212, and KMT-2018-BLG-2718. Combined with the 4 previously published new AnomalyFinder events and 12 previously published (or in preparation) planets that were discovered by eye, thismakes a total of 24 2018 prime-field planets discovered or recovered by AnomalyFinder. Together with a paper in preparation on 2018 sub-prime planets, this work lays the basis for the first statistical analysis of the planet mass-ratio function based on planets identified in KMTNet data. By systematically applying the heuristic analysis of Hwang et al. (2022) to each event, we identify the small modification in their formalism that is needed to unify the so-called close/wide and inner/outer degeneracies, as conjectured by, Comment: 22 pages, 14 tables, 15 figures

We present K2-2016-BLG-0005Lb, a densely sampled, planetary binary caustic-crossing microlensing event found from a blind search of data gathered from Campaign 9 of the Kepler K2 mission (K2C9). K2-2016-BLG-0005Lb is the first bound microlensing exoplanet discovered from space-based data. The event has caustic entry and exit points that are resolved in the K2C9 data, enabling the lens--source relative proper motion to be measured. We have fitted a binary microlens model to the Kepler data, and to simultaneous observations from multiple ground-based surveys. Whilst the ground-based data only sparsely sample the binary caustic, they provide a clear detection of parallax that allows us to break completely the microlensing mass--position--velocity degeneracy and measure the planet's mass directly. We find a host mass of $0.58\pm0.04 ~{\rm M}_\odot$ and a planetary mass of $1.1\pm0.1 ~{\rm M_J}$. The system lies at a distance of $5.2\pm0.2~$kpc from Earth towards the Galactic bulge, more than twice the distance of the previous most distant planet found by Kepler. The sky-projected separation of the planet from its host is found to be $4.2\pm0.3~$au which, for circular orbits, deprojects to a host separation $a = 4.4^{+1.9}_{-0.4}~$au and orbital period $P = 13^{+9}_{-2}~$yr. This makes K2-2016-BLG-0005Lb a close Jupiter analogue orbiting a low-mass host star. According to current planet formation models, this system is very close to the host mass threshold below which Jupiters are not expected to form. Upcoming space-based exoplanet microlensing surveys by NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and, possibly, ESA's Euclid mission, will provide demanding tests of current planet formation models., Comment: 18 pages. Accepted for publication in MNRAS Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society

Context. Brown dwarfs are poorly understood transition objects between stars and planets, with several competing mechanisms having been proposed for their formation. Mass measurements are generally difficult for isolated objects but also for brown dwarfs orbiting low-mass stars, which are often too faint for spectroscopic follow-up. Aims. Microlensing provides an alternative tool for the discovery and investigation of such faint systems. Here we present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-0033/MOA-2019-BLG-035, which is due to a binary system composed of a brown dwarf orbiting a red dwarf. Methods. Thanks to extensive ground observations and the availability of space observations from Spitzer, it has been possible to obtain accurate estimates of all microlensing parameters, including parallax, source radius and orbital motion of the binary lens. Results. After accurate modeling, we find that the lens is composed of a red dwarf with mass $M_1 = 0.149 \pm 0.010M_\odot$ and a brown dwarf with mass $M_2 = 0.0463 \pm 0.0031M_\odot$, at a projected separation of $a_\perp = 0.585$ au. The system has a peculiar velocity that is typical of old metal-poor populations in the thick disk. Percent precision in the mass measurement of brown dwarfs has been achieved only in a few microlensing events up to now, but will likely become common with the Roman space telescope., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures

OGLE-2016-BLG-1093 is a planetary microlensing event that is part of the statistical $Spitzer$ microlens parallax sample. The precise measurement of the microlens parallax effect for this event, combined with the measurement of finite source effects, leads to a direct measurement of the lens masses and system distance: $M_{\rm host} = 0.38$--$0.57\, M_{\odot}$, $m_p = 0.59$--$0.87\, M_{\rm Jup}$, and the system is located at the Galactic bulge ($D_L \sim 8.1$ kpc). Because this was a high-magnification event, we are also able to empirically show that the "cheap-space parallax" concept Gould & Yee (2012) produces well-constrained (and consistent) results for $|\pi_{\rm E}|$. This demonstrates that this concept can be extended to many two-body lenses. Finally, we briefly explore systematics in the $Spitzer$ light curve in this event and show that their potential impact is strongly mitigated by the color-constraint., Comment: 9 Figures, 3 Tables, submitted to the AAS journal

If one thinks of a Riemannian metric, $g_1$, analogously as the gradient of the corresponding distance function, $d_1$, with respect to a background Riemannian metric, $g_0$, then a natural question arises as to whether a corresponding theory of Sobolev inequalities exists between the Riemannian metric and its distance function. In this paper we study the sub-critical case $p < \frac{m}{2}$ and show a Sobolev inequality exists where an $L^{\frac{p}{2}}$ bound on a Riemannian metric implies an $L^q$ bound on its corresponding distance function. We then use this result to state a convergence theorem and show how this theorem can be useful to prove geometric stability results by proving a version of Gromov's conjecture for tori with almost non-negative scalar curvature in the conformal case. Examples are given to show that the hypotheses of the main theorems are necessary., Comment: 26 pages, 1 figure. v2: Final published version in AGAG

We present the photometric analysis of Gaia19bld, a high-magnification ($A\approx60$) microlensing event located in the southern Galactic plane, which exhibited finite source and microlensing parallax effects. Due to a prompt detection by the Gaia satellite and the very high brightness of $I = 9.05~$mag at the peak, it was possible to collect a complete and unique set of multi-channel follow-up observations, which allowed us to determine all parameters vital for the characterisation of the lens and the source in the microlensing event. Gaia19bld was discovered by the Gaia satellite and was subsequently intensively followed up with a network of ground-based observatories and the Spitzer Space Telescope. We collected multiple high-resolution spectra with Very Large Telescope (VLT)/X-Shooter to characterise the source star. The event was also observed with VLT Interferometer (VLTI)/PIONIER during the peak. Here we focus on the photometric observations and model the light curve composed of data from Gaia, Spitzer, and multiple optical, ground-based observatories. We find the best-fitting solution with parallax and finite source effects. We derived the limit on the luminosity of the lens based on the blended light model and spectroscopic distance. We compute the mass of the lens to be $1.13 \pm 0.03~M_{\odot}$ and derive its distance to be $5.52^{+0.35}_{-0.64}~\mathrm{kpc}$. The lens is likely a main sequence star, however its true nature has yet to be verified by future high-resolution observations. Our results are consistent with interferometric measurements of the angular Einstein radius, emphasising that interferometry can be a new channel for determining the masses of objects that would otherwise remain undetectable, including stellar-mass black holes., Comment: accepted to Astronomy&Astrophysics

We investigate a novel geometric Iwasawa theory for $\mathbf{Z}_p$-extensions of function fields over a perfect field $k$ of characteristic $p>0$ by replacing the usual study of $p$-torsion in class groups with the study of $p$-torsion class group schemes. That is, if $\cdots \to X_2 \to X_1 \to X_0$ is the tower of curves over $k$ associated to a $\mathbf{Z}_p$-extension of function fields totally ramified over a finite non-empty set of places, we investigate the growth of the $p$-torsion group scheme in the Jacobian of $X_n$ as $n\rightarrow \infty$. By Dieudonn\'e theory, this amounts to studying the first de Rham cohomology groups of $X_n$ equipped with natural actions of Frobenius and of the Cartier operator $V$. We formulate and test a number of conjectures which predict striking regularity in the $k[V]$-module structure of the space $M_n:=H^0(X_n, \Omega^1_{X_n/k})$ of global regular differential forms as $n\rightarrow \infty.$ For example, for each tower in a basic class of $\mathbf{Z}_p$-towers we conjecture that the dimension of the kernel of $V^r$ on $M_n$ is given by $a_r p^{2n} + \lambda_r n + c_r(n)$ for all $n$ sufficiently large, where $a_r, \lambda_r$ are rational constants and $c_r : \mathbf{Z}/m_r \mathbf{Z} \to \mathbf{Q}$ is a periodic function, depending on $r$ and the tower. To provide evidence for these conjectures, we collect extensive experimental data based on new and more efficient algorithms for working with differentials on $\mathbf{Z}_p$-towers of curves, and we prove our conjectures in the case $p=2$ and $r=1$., Comment: 48 pages; MAGMA code at https://github.com/jeremybooher/MAGMA-Towers

Widespread uptake of vaccines is necessary to achieve herd immunity. However, uptake rates have varied across U.S. states during the first six months of the COVID-19 vaccination program. Misbeliefs may play an important role in vaccine hesitancy, and there is a need to understand relationships between misinformation, beliefs, behaviors, and health outcomes. Here we investigate the extent to which COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy are associated with levels of online misinformation about vaccines. We also look for evidence of directionality from online misinformation to vaccine hesitancy. We find a negative relationship between misinformation and vaccination uptake rates. Online misinformation is also correlated with vaccine hesitancy rates taken from survey data. Associations between vaccine outcomes and misinformation remain significant when accounting for political as well as demographic and socioeconomic factors. While vaccine hesitancy is strongly associated with Republican vote share, we observe that the effect of online misinformation on hesitancy is strongest across Democratic rather than Republican counties. Granger causality analysis shows evidence for a directional relationship from online misinformation to vaccine hesitancy. Our results support a need for interventions that address misbeliefs, allowing individuals to make better-informed health decisions.

The exoplanetary system of HR 8799 is one of the rare systems in which multiple planets have been directly imaged. Its architecture is strikingly similar to that of the Solar System, with the four imaged giant planets surrounding a warm dust belt analogous to the Asteroid Belt, and themselves being surrounded by a cold dust belt analogue to the Kuiper Belt. Previous observations of this cold belt with ALMA in Band 6 (1.3 mm) revealed its inner edge, but analyses of the data differ on its precise location. It was therefore unclear whether the outermost planet HR 8799 b was dynamically sculpting it or not. We present here new ALMA observations of this debris disk in Band 7 (340 GHz, 880 micron). These are the most detailed observations of this disk obtained so far, with a resolution of 1" (40 au) and sensitivity of $9.8\,\mu\mathrm{Jy\,beam^{-1}}$, which allowed us to recover the disk structure with high confidence. In order to constrain the disk morphology, we fit its emission using radiative transfer models combined with a MCMC procedure. We find that this disk cannot be adequately represented by a single power law with sharp edges. It exhibits a smoothly rising inner edge and smoothly falling outer edge, with a peak in between, as expected from a disk that contains a high eccentricity component, hence confirming previous findings. Whether this excited population and inner edge shape stem from the presence of an additional planet remains, however, an open question., Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures, 7 tables. Accepted in AJ

We report the analysis of planetary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1185, which was observed by a large number of ground-based telescopes and by the $Spitzer$ Space Telescope. The ground-based light curve indicates a low planet-host star mass ratio of $q = (6.9 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{-5}$, which is near the peak of the wide-orbit exoplanet mass-ratio distribution. We estimate the host star and planet masses with a Bayesian analysis using the measured angular Einstein radius under the assumption that stars of all masses have an equal probability to host this planet. The flux variation observed by $Spitzer$ was marginal, but still places a constraint on the microlens parallax. Imposing a conservative constraint that this flux variation should be $\Delta f_{\rm Spz} < 4$ instrumental flux units indicates a host mass of $M_{\rm host} = 0.37^{+0.35}_{-0.21}\ M_\odot$ and a planet mass of $m_{\rm p} = 8.4^{+7.9}_{-4.7}\ M_\oplus$. A Bayesian analysis including the full parallax constraint from $Spitzer$ suggests smaller host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host} = 0.091^{+0.064}_{-0.018}\ M_\odot$ and $m_{\rm p} = 2.1^{+1.5}_{-0.4}\ M_\oplus$, respectively. Future high-resolution imaging observations with $HST$ or ELTs could distinguish between these two scenarios and help to reveal the planetary system properties in more detail., Comment: 30 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, Accepted for publication in Astronomical Journal (AJ)

In order to exhume the buried signatures of "missing planetary caustics" in the KMTNet data, we conducted a systematic anomaly search to the residuals from point-source point-lens fits, based on a modified version of the KMTNet EventFinder algorithm. This search reveals the lowest mass-ratio planetary caustic to date in the microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-1053, for which the planetary signal had not been noticed before. The planetary system has a planet-host mass ratio of $q = (1.25 \pm 0.13) \times 10^{-5}$. A Bayesian analysis yields estimates of the mass of the host star, $M_{\rm host} = 0.61_{-0.24}^{+0.29}~M_\odot$, the mass of its planet, $M_{\rm planet} = 2.48_{-0.98}^{+1.19}~M_{\oplus}$, the projected planet-host separation, $a_\perp = 3.4_{-0.5}^{+0.5}$ au, and the lens distance of $D_{\rm L} = 6.8_{-0.9}^{+0.6}$ kpc. The discovery of this very low mass-ratio planet illustrates the utility of our method and opens a new window for a large and homogeneous sample to study the microlensing planet-host mass-ratio function down to $q \sim 10^{-5}$., Comment: published by AJ

The young (50-400 Myr) A3V star $\beta$ Leo is a primary target to study the formation history and evolution of extrasolar planetary systems as one of the few stars with known hot ($\sim$1600$^\circ$K), warm ($\sim$600$^\circ$K), and cold ($\sim$120$^\circ$K) dust belt components. In this paper, we present deep mid-infrared measurements of the warm dust brightness obtained with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) as part of its exozodiacal dust survey (HOSTS). The measured excess is 0.47\%$\pm$0.050\% within the central 1.5 au, rising to 0.81\%$\pm$0.026\% within 4.5 au, outside the habitable zone of $\beta$~Leo. This dust level is 50 $\pm$ 10 times greater than in the solar system's zodiacal cloud. Poynting-Robertson drag on the cold dust detected by Spitzer and Herschel under-predicts the dust present in the habitable zone of $\beta$~Leo, suggesting an additional delivery mechanism (e.g.,~comets) or an additional belt at $\sim$5.5 au. A model of these dust components is provided which implies the absence of planets more than a few Saturn masses between $\sim$5 au and the outer belt at $\sim$40 au. We also observationally constrain giant planets with the LBTI imaging channel at 3.8~$\mu$m wavelength. Assuming an age of 50 Myr, any planet in the system between approximately 5 au to 50 au must be less than a few Jupiter masses, consistent with our dust model. Taken together, these observations showcase the deep contrasts and detection capabilities attainable by the LBTI for both warm exozodiacal dust and giant exoplanets in or near the habitable zone of nearby stars., Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomical Journal