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This study was motivated by the efforts to evaluate radiation risk for leukemia incidence in the Techa River cohort, where the main bone marrow dose contributors were Sr (bone-seeking beta emitters). Energy deposition in bone marrow targets was evaluated by simulating radiation particle transport using computational phantoms. The present paper describes the computer program Trabecula implementing an algorithm for parametric generation of computational phantoms, which serve as the basis for calculating bone marrow doses. Trabecula is a user-friendly tool that automatically converts analytical models into voxelized representations that are directly compatible as input to Monte Carlo N Particle code.

Purpose: Descriptive analysis of the distributions of organ/tissue doses for individuals exposed to radiation as a result of liquid waste releases into the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association (PA) in 1949–1956. Material and methods: The dosimetry system TRDS-2016D has been used to compute individual doses of external and internal exposures. TRDS-2016D databases include information on radionuclide intakes and dose rates in air for settlements located in the contaminated areas of the Techa River and the East Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT). Combining these village-average data with the residence history and age of a particular person, the system produces an individual scenario of external exposure and individual radionuclide intakes and then calculates corresponding external and internal doses from the Techa River and EURT. Available 90Sr-body-burden measurements and available information on individual household locations relative to the contaminated river have been used for refinement of individual dose estimates. Results: Individual doses have been calculated for 29,647 persons included in the Techa River Cohort (TRC). According to residence history data, 5,280 members of the TRC were additionally exposed due to residency in the EURT villages. The cohort-average dose for the majority of extra-skeletal tissues does not exceed 100 mGy, while for the red bone marrow (RBM) it is equal to 350 mGy. In addition to the doses from the Techa River and EURT, individual thyroid doses for TRC members exposed to the Mayak PA atmospheric 131I releases have been calculated in a separate computer program. The cohort–average thyroid dose is 210 mGy. Maximum doses (about 1 Gy to the majority of extra-skeletal tissues and over 7 Gy to the thyroid and RBM) are observed for the persons who lived in their childhood and adolescence in the upper Techa region at close distance to the Mayak PA. Conclusion: The TRC members were exposed to chronic radiation over a wide range of doses, but at low-to-moderate-dose rates. Estimates of absorbed doses can be used to analyze the dose dependences of the incidence of solid cancers and leukemias. This can make it possible to verify risk coefficients of low-dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation which can be used for radiation protection purposes.

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90Sr and 89Sr intake to humans.

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected-information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

Purpose Scientific Committee 6-9 was established by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP), charged to provide guidance in the derivation of organ doses and their uncertainty, and produced a report, NCRP Report No. 178, Deriving Organ Doses and their Uncertainty for Epidemiologic Studies with a focus on the Million Person Study of Low-Dose Radiation Health Effects (MPS). This review summarizes the conclusions and recommendations of NCRP Report No. 178, with a concentration on and overview of the dosimetry and uncertainty approaches for the cohorts in the MPS, along with guidelines regarding the essential approaches used to estimate organ doses and their uncertainties (from external and internal sources) within the framework of an epidemiologic study. Conclusions The success of the MPS is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide realistic estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses that are as accurate and precise as possible and to properly evaluate their accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the MPS are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 y. Specific dosimetric reconstruction issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, U.S. Department of Energy workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma- or x-ray sources, for some of the study groups, there is also a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that requires internal radiation dosimetry assessments.

The Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2013) is a system for interpreting measurement data from Mayak workers from both internal and external sources. This paper is concerned with the calculation of annual organ doses for Mayak workers exposed to plutonium aerosols, where the measurement data consists mainly of activity of plutonium in urine samples. The system utilises the latest biokinetic and dosimetric models, and unlike its predecessors, takes explicit account of uncertainties in both the measurement data and model parameters. The aim of this paper is to describe the complete MWDS-2013 system (including model parameter values and their uncertainties) and the methodology used (including all the relevant equations) and the assumptions made. Where necessary, Supplementary papers which justify specific assumptions are cited.

The East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT) was formed after a chemical explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility of the Mayak Production Association in 1957 (Southern Urals, Russia) and resulted in an activity dispersion of 7.4 × 1016 Bq into the atmosphere. Internal exposure due to ingestion of radionuclides with local foodstuffs was the main factor of public exposure at the EURT. The EURT cohort, combining residents of most contaminated settlements, was formed for epidemiological study at the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine, Russia (URCRM). For the purpose of improvement of radionuclide intake estimates for cohort members, the following data sets collected in URCRM were used: (1) Total β-activity and radiochemical measurements of 90Sr in local foodstuffs over all of the period of interest (1958–2011; n = 2200), which were used for relative 90Sr intake estimations. (2) 90Sr measurements in human bones and whole body (n = 338); these data were used for average 90Sr intake derivations using an age- and gender-dependent Sr-biokinetic model. Non-strontium radionuclide intakes were evaluated on the basis of 90Sr intake data and the radionuclide composition of contaminated foodstuffs. Validation of radionuclide intakes during the first years after the accident was first carried out using measurements of the feces β-activity of EURT residents (n = 148). The comparison of experimental and reconstructed values of feces β-activity shows good agreement. 90Sr intakes for residents of settlements evacuated 7–14 days after the accident were also obtained from 90Sr measurements in human bone and whole body. The results of radionuclide intake reconstruction will be used to estimate the internal doses for the members of the EURT cohort.

The radiochemical analysis of plutonium activity in urine is the main method for indirect estimation of doses of internal exposure from plutonium incorporation in professional workers. It was previously shown that late-in-life acute diseases, particularly those that affect the liver, can promote accelerated rates of release of plutonium from the liver with enhanced excretion rates. This initial study examines the relationships of some chronic diseases on plutonium excretion as well as the terminal relative distribution of plutonium between the liver and skeleton. Fourteen cases from former workers at the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) who provided from 4–9 urine plutonium bioassays for plutonium, had an autopsy conducted after death, and had sufficient clinical records to document their health status were used in this study. Enhanced plutonium excretion was associated with more serious chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and other diseases that involved the liver. These chronic diseases were also associated with relatively less plutonium found in the liver relative to the skeleton determined by analyses conducted after autopsy. These data further document health conditions that affect plutonium biokinetics and organ deposition and retention patterns and suggest that health status should be considered when conducting plutonium bioassays as these may alter subsequent dosimetry and risk models.

Differences in results from the new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System (MWDS-2016) vs the previous MWDS-2013 are described. Statistical characteristics are shown for the distribution of accumulated absorbed doses to organs for 8340 workers with bioassay data. Differences in mean values of accumulated doses and their relative standard uncertainties calculated by MWDS-2016 and MWDS-2013 were analysed separately for various types of industrial compounds of plutonium, specifically nitrates, mixtures and oxides. Within the range of accumulated doses >1 mGy, lung doses for nitrates and mixtures decreased by 41 and 15%, respectively, and remained at the same level for oxides. Accumulated liver doses within the range >1 mGy increased for nitrates and mixtures by 13 and 8%, respectively, and decreased for oxides by 7%.

Program Area Committee 5 of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) focuses its activities on environmental radiation and radioactive waste issues. The Committee completed a number of reports in these subject areas, most recently NCRP Report No. 175, Decision Making for Late-Phase Recovery from Major Nuclear or Radiological Incidents. Historically this Committee addressed emerging issues of the nation pertaining to radioactivity or radiation in the environment or radioactive waste issues due either to natural origins or to manmade activities.

This study applies EPR tooth dosimetry for validation of external doses calculated with the TRDS-2016. EPR-based external dose in tooth enamel is calculated by subtraction of the contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources from the exposure of interest. These subtracted terms may contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty of the EPR-derived external dose. The validation method strongly depends on the uncertainties. The current study combines the results of a number of previous papers to propagate the uncertainty of EPR-derived external doses. It is concluded that the overall uncertainties of D >= 500 mGy are comparable with measurement uncertainties (100%. Therefore, the validation task can be solved only based on statistical approaches. The validation of the TRDS-2016 predictions demonstrates good convergence of group-averages with EPR-based doses. The method for validation of the uncertainty of TRDS-2016 predictions should be also designed based on statistical approaches.

Waterborne radioactive releases into the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association in Russia during 1949-1956 resulted in significant doses to about 30,000 persons who lived in downstream settlements. The residents were exposed to internal and external radiation. Two methods for reconstruction of the external dose are considered in this paper, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements of teeth, and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) measurements of chromosome translocations in circulating lymphocytes. The main issue in the application of the EPR and FISH methods for reconstruction of the external dose for the Techa Riverside residents was strontium radioisotopes incorporated in teeth and bones that act as a source of confounding local exposures. In order to estimate and subtract doses from incorporated (89,90)Sr, the EPR and FISH assays were supported by measurements of (90)Sr-body burdens and estimates of (90)Sr concentrations in dental tissues by the luminescence method. The resulting dose estimates derived from EPR to FISH measurements for residents of the upper Techa River were found to be consistent: The mean values vary from 510 to 550 mGy for the villages located close to the site of radioactive release to 130-160 mGy for the more distant villages. The upper bound of individual estimates for both methods is equal to 2.2-2.3 Gy. The EPR- and FISH-based dose estimates were compared with the doses calculated for the donors using the most recent Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The TRDS external dose assessments are based on the data on contamination of the Techa River floodplain, simulation of air kerma above the contaminated soil, age-dependent lifestyles and individual residence histories. For correct comparison, TRDS-based doses were calculated from two sources: external exposure from the contaminated environment and internal exposure from (137)Cs incorporated in donors' soft tissues. It is shown here that the TRDS-based absorbed doses in tooth enamel and muscle are in agreement with EPR- and FISH-based estimates within uncertainty bounds. Basically, this agreement between the estimates has confirmed the validity of external doses calculated with the TRDS.

The primary aim of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans [the Million Worker Study (MWS)] is to provide scientifically valid information on the level of radiation risk when exposures are received gradually over time and not within seconds, as was the case for Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The primary outcome of the epidemiologic study is cancer mortality, but other causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease will be evaluated. The success of the study is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide realistic estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses that are as accurate and precise as possible and to properly evaluate their accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the MWS are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 y. The dosimetric issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, U.S. Department of Energy workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma- or x-ray sources, for some of the study groups, there is a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that requires internal radiation dosimetry assessments. Scientific Committee 6-9 has been established by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) to produce a report on the comprehensive organ dose assessment (including uncertainty analysis) for the MWS. The NCRP dosimetry report will cover the specifics of practical dose reconstruction for the ongoing epidemiologic studies with uncertainty analysis discussions and will be a specific application of the guidance provided in NCRP Report Nos. 158, 163, 164, and 171. The main role of the Committee is to provide guidelines to the various groups of dosimetrists involved in the MWS to ensure that certain dosimetry criteria are considered: calculation of annual absorbed doses in the organs of interest, separation of low and high linear-energy transfer components, evaluation of uncertainties, and quality assurance and quality control. It is recognized that the MWS and its approaches to dosimetry are a work in progress and that there will be flexibility and changes in direction as new information is obtained with regard to both dosimetry and the epidemiologic features of the study components. This paper focuses on the description of the various components of the MWS, the available dosimetry results, and the challenges that have been encountered. It is expected that the Committee will complete its report in 2016.

Scoping epidemiology studies performed by researchers from the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute revealed an excess prevalence of thyroid nodules and an increased incidence of thyroid cancer among residents of Ozersk, Russia, who were born in the early 1950s. Ozersk is located about 5 km from the facilities where the Mayak Production Association produced nuclear materials for the Russian weapons program. Reactor operations began in June 1948 and chemical separation of plutonium from irradiated fuel began in February 1949. The U.S.–Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research conducted a series of projects over a 10-year period to assess the radiation risks in the Southern Urals. This paper uses data collected under Committee projects to present examples of reconstructed time-dependent thyroid doses to reference individuals living in Ozersk from 131 I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. Between 3.22 × 10 16 and 4.31 × 10 16 Bq of 131 I may have been released during the 1948–1972 time period, and a best estimate is 3.76 × 10 16 Bq. In general, younger children incur greater thyroid doses from 131 I than adults. A child born in 1947 is estimated to have received a cumulative thyroid dose of 2.3 Gy for 1948–1972, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.51–7.3 Gy. Annual doses were the highest in 1949 and a child who was 5 years old in 1949 is estimated to have a received an annual thyroid dose of 0.93 Gy with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19–3.5 Gy.

Releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association in 1949-1956 resulted in contamination of the Techa River; a nuclide of major interest was 90Sr, which downstream residents consumed with water from the river and with milk contaminated by cow's consumption of river water and contaminated pasture. Over the years, several reconstructions of dose have been performed for the approximately 30,000 persons who make up the Extended Techa River Cohort. The purpose of the study described here was to derive a revised reference-90Sr-intake function for the members of this cohort. The revision was necessary because recently discovered data have provided a more accurate description of the time course of the releases, and more is now known about the importance of the pasture grass-cow-milk pathway for the members of this cohort. The fundamental basis for the derivation of the reference-90Sr-intake function remains the same: thousands of measurements of 90Sr content in bone with a special whole-body counter, thousands of measurement of beta-activity of front teeth with a special tooth-beta counter, and a variety of other measurements, including post mortem measurements of 90Sr in bone, measurements of 90Sr in cow's milk, and measurements of beta activity in human excreta. Results of themore » new analyses are that the major intake started in September 1950 and peaked somewhat later than originally postulated. However, the total intake for adult residents has not changed significantly. For children of some birth years, the intake and incorporation of 90Sr in bone tissue have changed substantially.« less

In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR) models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose), a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS) and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters.

Long-term whole-body monitoring of radionuclides in residents of the Urals Region has been performed at the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine (URCRM, Chelyabinsk). Quantification of 40K was achieved by measuring the 40K photopeak with four phoswich detectors in whole body counter SICH-9.1M. The current study presents the results of 40K measurements in 3,651 women and 1,961 t-test; U-test men aged 11-90; measurements were performed in 2006-2014. The residents belonged to two ethnic groups, Turkic (Tatar, Bashkir) and Slavs (mainly Russian). The levels of 40K-body contents depend upon gender, age, and body mass. Significant ethnic-differences were not found in 40K-body contents and 40K concentrations in terms of Bq per kg of body weight (in groups homogenous by age and gender). Both 40K-body contents and concentrations were significantly higher in men than in women in all age-groups; the difference was about 25%. The measured 40K-body content in men of 20-50 years was about 4200 Bq (134 g of K) and about 3000 Bq (95 g of K) in women. By the age of 80 these values decreased to 3200 Bq (102 g of K) in men and 2500 Bq (80 g of K) in women. Annual dose rates were maximal in the age group of 20-30 years- 0.16 mGy/y for men and 0.13 mGy/y for women. Further, the dose-rates decreased with age and in the groups of 60-80 years were 0.13 mGy/y for men and 0.10 mGy/y for women. Within groups homogeneous by age and gender, individual dose rates are described by a normal statistical distribution. The coefficient of variation ranges from 9 to 14%, and on the average is 12.5%. Doses from naturally occurring 40K accumulated over 70 years were found to be 9.9 mGy for men and 8.3 mGy for women; over 90 years - 12.5 and 10.4 mGy.

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for over 29,000 Techa River Cohort members living near the Mayak production facilities from 131 I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. The calculational approach uses four general steps: 1) construct estimates of releases of 131 I to the air from production facilities; 2) model the transport of 131 I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation; 3) model the accumulation of 131 I in environmental media; and 4) calculate individualized doses. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and confidence intervals of dose time-histories. Other radionuclide contributors to thyroid dose were evaluated. The 131 I contribution was 75–99% of the thyroid dose. The mean total thyroid dose for cohort members was 193 mGy and the median was 53 mGy. Thyroid doses for about 3% of cohort members were larger than 1 Gy. About 7% of children born in 1940–1950 had doses larger than 1 Gy. The uncertainty in the 131 I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

The distribution of calculated internal doses has been determined for 8043 Mayak Production Associate (Mayak PA) workers. This is a subset of the entire cohort of 25 757 workers, for whom monitoring data are available. Statistical characteristics of point estimates of accumulated doses to 17 different tissues and organs and the uncertainty ranges were calculated. Under the MWDS-2013 dosimetry system, the mean accumulated lung dose was 185 ± 594 mGy (geometric mean = 28 mGy; geometric standard deviation = 9.32; median value = 31 mGy; maximum value = 8980 mGy). The ranges of relative standard uncertainty were from 40 to 2200% for accumulated lung dose, from 25-90% to 2600-3000% for accumulated dose to different regions of respiratory tract, from 13-22% to 2300-2500% for systemic organs and tissues. The Mayak PA workers accumulated internal plutonium lung dose is shown to be close to log normal. The accumulated internal plutonium dose to systemic organs was close to a log triangle. The dependency of uncertainty of accumulated absorbed lung and liver doses on the dose estimates itself is also shown. The accumulated absorbed doses to lung, alveolar-interstitial region, liver, bone surface cells and red bone marrow calculated both with MWDS-2013 and MWDS-2008 have been compared. In general, the accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 1.8 in median value, while the accumulated doses to systemic organs decreased by factor of 1.3-1.4 in median value. For the cases with identical initial data, accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 2.1 in median value, while accumulated doses to systemic organs decreased by 8-13% in median value. For the cases with both identical initial data and all of plutonium activity in urine measurements above the decision threshold, accumulated lung doses increased by a factor of 2.7 in median value, while accumulated doses to systemic organs increased by 6-12% in median value.

The reconstruction of radiation doses to Mayak Production Association workers in central Russia supports radiation epidemiological studies for the U.S.-Russian Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research. The most recent version of the dosimetry was performed with the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System-2013. This introduction outlines the logic and general content of the series of articles presented in this issue of Radiation Protection Dosimetry. The articles summarize the models, describe the basis for most of the key decisions made in developing the models and present an overview of the results.

More accurate reconstruction of the radioactive contamination of the Techa River system in 1949-1951 has been made on the basis of refined data on the amounts and the rate of discharge of radionuclides into the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association; this has led to the development of a modified Techa River model that describes the transport of radionuclides through the up-river ponds and along the Techa River and deposition of radionuclides in the river-bottom sediments and flooded areas. The refined Techa River source-term data define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and radionuclide composition of the releases that occurred during 1949-1951. The Techa River model takes into account the time-dependent characteristics of the releases and considers (a) the transport of radionuclides adsorbed on solid particles originally contained in the discharges or originating in the up-river ponds as a result of stirring up of contaminated bottom sediments and (b) the transport of radionuclides in soluble form. The output of the Techa River model provides concentrations of all source-term radionuclides in the river water, bottom sediments, and floodplain soils at different distances from the site of radioactive releases for the period of major contamination in 1950-1951. The outputs of the model show good agreement with historical measurements of water and sediment contamination. In addition, the river-model output for (90)Sr concentration in the river water is harmonized with retrospective estimates derived from the measurements of (90)Sr in the residents of the Techa Riverside villages. Modeled contamination of the floodplain soils by (137)Cs is shown to be in agreement with the values reconstructed from late measurements of this radionuclide. Reconstructed estimates of the Techa River contamination are being used for the quantification of internal and external doses received by residents of the Techa Riverside communities.

The rate of cortical bone resorption was assessed from long-term in vivo measurements of 90 Sr content in the skeleton for men aged 50–80 years and for women 0–30 years after menopause. Measurements of 90 Sr were conducted with a whole body counter (WBC) for residents of the Techa Riverside communities (Southern Urals, Russia), who ingested large amounts of 90 Sr as a result of releases of liquid radioactive wastes into the river from the Mayak plutonium facility in early 1950s. The results of this study showed an increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption in both men and women, as based on the use of accidentally ingested 90 Sr as a tracer for bone metabolism. In men there was a continuous gradual increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption after 55 years from 2.8 to 4.5%/year by the age of 75 years. In women, there was a doubled increase in the rate of cortical bone resorption after menopause of up to 6%/year; then the rate remained unchanged for 10–12 years with a subsequent gradual decline down to 5–5.5%/year. Comparison of the rate of cortical bone resorption in men and women older than 55 years showed that women expressed significantly higher levels of cortical bone resorption.

The Mayak Production Association was the first site for the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Russia. Early operations led to the waterborne release of radioactive materials into the small Techa River. Residents living downstream used river water for drinking and other purposes. The releases and subsequent flooding resulted in deposition of sediments along the shoreline and on floodplain soil. Primary routes of exposure were external dose from the deposited sediments and ingestion of 90Sr and other radionuclides. Study of the Techa River Cohort has revealed an increased incidence of leukemia and solid cancers. Epidemiologic studies are supported by extensive dose-reconstruction activities that have led to various versions of a Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The correctness of the TRDS has been challenged by the allegation that releases of short-lived radionuclides were much larger than those used in the TRDS. Although the dosimetry system depends more upon measurements of 90Sr in humans and additional measurements of radionuclides and of exposure rates in the environment, a major activity has been undertaken to define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and their radionuclide composition. The major releases occurred during 1950-1951 in the form of routine releases and major accidental releases. The reevaluated amount of total release is 114 PBq, about half of which was from accidents that occurred in late 1951. The time-dependent composition of the radionuclides released has also been reevaluated. The improved understanding presented in this paper is possible because of access to many documents not previously available.

Certain widely used wind rose programs and air dispersion models use an overly simple data-transfer algorithm that induces a directional bias in their output products. The purpose of this paper is to provide a revised algorithm that corrects the directional bias that occurs from the aliasing that occurs when the sector widths used to report wind direction data are on the same order of magnitude, but not equal, to the sector widths used in the wind direction summaries. The directional bias issue arises when output products in 16 direction sectors (22.5 degrees each) are produced from wind direction data reported in terms of 36 sectors (10 degrees each). The result directional bias affects the results of simulations of air and surface concentrations using widely applied air dispersion models. Datasets or models with the directional bias discussed here give consistent positive biases (approximately 30%) for cardinal direction sectors (north, south, east, and west) and consistent negative biases for all of the other sectors (around -10%). Data summary and air dispersion programs providing outputs in direction sectors that do not match the observational sectors need to be checked for this bias. A revised data-transfer algorithm is provided that corrects the directional bias that can occur in transferring wind direction data between different sector widths.

The destruction of the Unit 4 reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant resulted in the generation of radioactive contamination and radioactive waste at the site and in the surrounding area (referred to as the Exclusion Zone). In the course of remediation activities, large volumes of radioactive waste were generated and placed in temporary near-surface waste storage and disposal facilities. Trench and landfill type facilities were created from 1986-1987 in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone at distances 0.5-15 km from the nuclear power plant site. This large number of facilities was established without proper design documentation, engineered barriers, or hydrogeological investigations and they do not meet contemporary waste-safety requirements. Immediately following the accident, a Shelter was constructed over the destroyed reactor; in addition to uncertainties in stability at the time of its construction, structural elements of the Shelter have degraded as a result of corrosion. The main potential hazard of the Shelter is a possible collapse of its top structures and release of radioactive dust into the environment. A New Safe Confinement (NSC) with a 100 y service life is planned to be built as a cover over the existing Shelter as a longer-term solution. The construction of the NSC will enable the dismantlement of the current Shelter, removal of highly radioactive, fuel-containing materials from Unit 4, and eventual decommissioning of the damaged reactor. More radioactive waste will be generated during NSC construction, possible Shelter dismantling, removal of fuel-containing materials, and decommissioning of Unit 4. The future development of the Exclusion Zone depends on the future strategy for converting Unit 4 into an ecologically safe system, i.e., the development of the NSC, the dismantlement of the current Shelter, removal of fuel-containing material, and eventual decommissioning of the accident site. To date, a broadly accepted strategy for radioactive waste management at the reactor site and in the Exclusion Zone, and especially for high level and long-lived waste, has not been developed.

A methodology was developed for reduction of uncertainties in estimates of internal dose for residents of the Techa Riverside communities, who were exposed as a result of releases of radionuclides from the Mayak plutonium production facility in 1949-56. The 'Techa River Dosimetry System' (TRDS) was specifically elaborated for reconstruction of doses. A preliminary analysis of uncertainty for doses estimated using the current version of the TRDS showed large ranges in the uncertainty of internal absorbed dose and led to suggestions of methods to reduce uncertainties. The new methodological approaches described in this paper will allow for significant reduction of uncertainties of 90Sr- dose. The major sources of reduction are: making use of individual measured values of 90Sr and through development of a Household Registry to associate unmeasured persons with measured persons living in the same household(s). © The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of "possible" dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takes up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. The use of these methods in the context of several studies including, the Mayak Worker Cohort, and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitations for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on (90)Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic model for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has a similar structure to the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly re-evaluated: gastrointestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0-80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general populations exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.

The Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS) has been developed to provide estimates of dose received by approximately 30,000 members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC). Members of the ETRC were exposed beginning in 1949 to significant levels of external and internal (mainly from (90)Sr) dose but at low to moderate dose rates. Members of this cohort are being studied in an effort to test the hypothesis that exposure at low to moderate dose rates has the same ability to produce stochastic health effects as exposure at high dose rates. The current version of the TRDS is known as TRDS-2000 and is the subject of this paper. The estimated doses from (90)Sr are supported strongly by approximately 30,000 measurements made with a tooth beta-particle counter, measurements of bones collected at autopsy, and approximately 38,000 measurements made with a special whole-body counter that detects the bremsstrahlung from (90)Y. The median doses to the red bone marrow and the bone surface are 0.21 and 0.37 Gy, respectively. The maximum doses to the red bone marrow and bone surface are 2.0 and 5.2 Gy, respectively. Distributions of dose to other organs are provided and are lower than the values given above. Directions for future work are discussed.

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.

The Mayak Production Association released large amounts of 90Sr into the Techa River with peak amounts in 1950-1951. Residents near the Techa River ingested an average of approximately 3,000 kBq of 90Sr. The affected people have been followed by scientists at the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine. The whole-body content of 90Sr of approximately 15,000 individuals has been measured over a period of 24 years (1974-1997) using a special whole-body counter. This report evaluates the gender and age dependences of individual rates of strontium elimination. Data on persons who had been measured 12 or more times were selected for study. There were 108 men and 81 women older than 30 years who met this criterion. Individual measurement results were fitted to an exponential function and grouped mean averages of the rate of strontium elimination as a function of age for each sex were derived. For men, a significant increase (from 2.8% year(-1) to 3.2% year(-1)) in the rate of strontium elimination after age 55 years is seen. For women, the increase in the rate of elimination was significant at age 45 and reached 5.8% year(-1) after the age of 60. The results may be used to develop a gender- and age-dependent model of strontium metabolism.

The atmospheric release of 131I from the Hanford site for the 1950's and 1960's, focused on the period of releases after the year 1950, has been re-evaluated using processing plant stack monitoring data to address a series of questions and concerns that have arisen related to the source term. Historical stack monitoring data have been used to re-assess the releases by creating either a release factor to use with the calculated plant throughput or using the stack monitoring results as the basic estimate, and the results have been verified using historical atmospheric monitoring data from a location several kilometers distant. Uncertainties in all of the historical data have been addressed in the re-assessment. Compared to the original estimate between 1950 and 1971 of 2.46 +/- 0.71 PBq, the stack monitoring results show a release of 131I to the atmosphere of 1.55 +/- 0.23 PBq. The concurrent atmospheric monitoring results imply a release of 1.75 +/- 0.11 PBq over the same period, but this result is inflated by inclusion of global fallout The total effective dose estimated to a full-time, nearby adult resident from 131I using the Heeb source term from 1950 through 1972 is 0.73 mSv; using the source term based on stack monitoring data in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction project models, it is 0.51 mSv.

The combined dosimetric and epidemiologic study of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) is deemed important, as this cohort is one of a very few that can be studied to examine the question of whether there is a dose rate- reduction factor in the induction of stochastic effects by radiation. This question represents a central issue in radiation protection of workers and the public. The overall scientific hypothesis to be tested by the combined dosimetric and epidemiologic study of the ETRC is whether radiation dose delivered at low dose rates is equally as effective (in causing cancer and other stochastic effects) as the same dose delivered at high dose rates. Russian and United States scientists have been involved in collaborative research programs under the sponsorship of the U.S.-Russian Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) since 1995. JCCRER Project 1.1 was a comprehensive program to develop improvements in the dosimetry system for the population exposed as a result of the releases of the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA) by providing more in-depth analysis of existing data, further search of existing records for useful data, model development and testing, evaluation of uncertainties, verification of procedures, and validation studies. The projectmore » was extended in 2000 with the additional aims of further study of uncertainty of the doses with the goal of reducing uncertainty in the final dose estimates, and validation of the dose estimates, particularly the revised estimates of external dose. Russian and European scientists are also collaborating in this area. Current work is supported by the EC-Framework Programme/Research and Training Programme in the Field of Nuclear Energy. The partners include the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine (URCRM) and the GSF - National Research Center for Environment and Health. The purpose is to support companion epidemiologic studies of radiogenic leukemia and solid cancers.« less

Beginning in 1948, the Soviet Union initiated a program for production of nuclear materials for a weapons program. The first facility for production of plutonium was constructed in the central portion of the country east of the southern Ural Mountains, about halfway between the major industrial cities of Ekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk. The facility, now known as the Mayak Production Association, and its associated town, now known as Ozersk, were built to irradiate uranium in reactors, separate the resulting plutonium in reprocessing plants, and prepare plutonium metal in the metallurgical plant. The rush to production, coupled with inexperience in handling radioactive materials, led to large radiation exposures, not only to the workers in the facilities, but also to the surrounding public. Fuel processing started with no controls on releases, and fuel dissolution and accidents in reactors resulted in release of ~37 PBq of I between 1948 and 1967. Designed disposals of low- and intermediate-level liquid radioactive wastes, and accidental releases via cooling water from tank farms of high-level liquid radioactive wastes into the small Techa River, caused significant contamination and exposures to residents of numerous small riverside villages downstream of the site. Discovery of the magnitude of the aquatic contamination in late 1951 caused revisions to the waste handling regimes, but not before over 200 PBq of radionuclides (with large contributions of Sr and Cs) were released. Liquid wastes were diverted to tiny Lake Karachay (which today holds over 4 EBq); cooling water was stopped in the tank farms. In 1957, one of the tanks in the tank farm overheated and exploded; over 70 PBq, disproportionately Sr, was blown over a large area to the northeast of the site. A large area was contaminated and many villages evacuated. This area today is known as the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Each of these releases was significant; together they have created a unique group of cohorts with their chronic, low dose-rate radiation exposure. The 26,000 workers at Mayak were highly exposed to external gamma and inhaled plutonium. A cohort of individuals raised as children in Ozersk is under evaluation for their exposures to radioiodine. The Techa River Cohort consists of over 30,000 people who were born before the start of exposure in 1949 and lived along the Techa River. The Techa River Offspring Cohort consists of ~21,000 persons born to one or more exposed parents of this group, many who also lived along the contaminated river. The EURT Cohort consists of ~18,000 people who were evacuated from the EURT soon after the 1957 explosion and another 8,000 who remained. These groups together are the focus of dose reconstruction and epidemiological studies funded by the United States, Russia, and the European Union to address the question, "Are doses delivered at low dose rates as effective in producing health effects as the same doses delivered at high dose rates?"Introduction of Joint U.S. and Russian Studies of Population Exposures (Video 2:13, http://links.lww.com/HP/A28).

The Mayak Production Association (MPA) was the first facility in the former Soviet Union for the production of plutonium. Significant worker and population exposures occurred as a result of failures in the technological processes in the late 1940's and early 1950's. Residents of many villages downstream on the Techa River were exposed via a variety of pathways; the more significant included drinking of water from the river and external gamma exposure due to proximity to contaminated bottom sediment and shoreline. After the extent of the major contamination of the Techa River became known, several villages on the upper part of the Techa River were evacuated. Organ doses are being reconstructed on the basis of derivation of an historical source term and a simple river model used to simulate the transport of radionuclides downstream and their retention on sediments; measurements of 90Sr content in teeth and the whole body of half of the members of the cohort; and development of the "Techa River Dosimetry System" for computation of the doses.

In the course of evaluating the current parameter needs for the GENII Version 2 code (Snyder et al. 2013), areas of possible improvement for both the data and the underlying models have been identified. As the data review was implemented, PNNL staff identified areas where the models can be improved both to accommodate the locally significant pathways identified and also to incorporate newer models. The areas are general data needs for the existing models and improved formulations for the pathway models. It is recommended that priorities be set by NRC staff to guide selection of the most useful improvements in a cost-effective manner. Suggestions are made based on relatively easy and inexpensive changes, and longer-term more costly studies. In the short term, there are several improved model formulations that could be applied to the GENII suite of codes to make them more generally useful. • Implementation of the separation of the translocation and weathering processes • Implementation of an improved model for carbon-14 from non-atmospheric sources • Implementation of radon exposure pathways models • Development of a KML processor for the output report generator module data that are calculated on a grid that could be superimposed upon digital maps for easier presentation and display • Implementation of marine mammal models (manatees, seals, walrus, whales, etc.). Data needs in the longer term require extensive (and potentially expensive) research. Before picking any one radionuclide or food type, NRC staff should perform an in-house review of current and anticipated environmental analyses to select “dominant” radionuclides of interest to allow setting of cost-effective priorities for radionuclide- and pathway-specific research. These include • soil-to-plant uptake studies for oranges and other citrus fruits, and • Development of models for evaluation of radionuclide concentration in highly-processed foods such as oils and sugars. Finally, renewed studies of radionuclide cleanup in various modern types of municipal water treatment facilities such as advanced filtration or reverse-osmosis processes may be performed without development of any new or costly experimental facilities.

Historical activities at facilities producing nuclear materials for weapons released radioactivity into the air and water. Past studies in the United States have evaluated the release, atmospheric transport and environmental accumulation of 131I from the nuclear facilities at Hanford in Washington State and the resulting dose to members of the public (Farris et al. 1994). A multi-year dose reconstruction effort (Mokrov et al. 2004) is also being conducted to produce representative dose estimates for members of the public living near Mayak, Russia, from atmospheric releases of 131I at the facilities of the Mayak Production Association. The approach to calculating individual doses to members of the public from historical releases of airborne 131I has the following general steps: • Construct estimates of releases 131I to the air from production facilities. • Model the transport of 131I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation. • Model the accumulation of 131I in soil, water and food products (environmental media). • Calculate the dose for an individual by matching the appropriate lifestyle and consumption data for the individual to the concentrations of 131I in environmental media at their residence location. A number of computer codes were developed to facilitate themore » study of airborne 131I emissions at Hanford. Of particular interest is DESCARTES code that modeled accumulation of 131I in environmental media (Miley et al. 1994). In addition, the CIDER computer code estimated annual doses to individuals (Eslinger et al. 1994) using the equations and parameters specific to Hanford (Snyder et al. 1994). Several of the computer codes developed to model 131I releases from Hanford are general enough to be used for other facilities. Additional codes have been developed, including the new individual dose code CiderF (Eslinger and Napier 2013), and applied to historical releases of 131I from Mayak. This document provides a data package that identifies computer code runs and associated input and output files prepared for the purpose of calculating doses to members of the public from atmospheric releases of 131I at the Mayak Production Association for the time period 1948 through 1972.« less

Values for the dry deposition velocity of airborne particles were estimated with the GENII Version 2.10.1 computer code for the Savannah River site using assumptions about surface roughness parameters and particle size and density. Use of the GENII code is recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy for this purpose. Meteorological conditions evaluated include atmospheric stability classes D, E, and F and wind speeds of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 m/s. Local surface roughness values ranging from 0.03 to 2 meters were evaluated. Particles with mass mean diameters of 1, 5, and 10 microns and densities of 1, 3, 4, and 5 g/cm3 were evaluated. Site specific meteorology was used to predict deposition velocity for Savannah River conditions for a range of distances from 670 to 11,500 meters.

Historical activities at facilities producing nuclear materials for weapons released radioactivity into the air and water. Past studies in the United States have evaluated the release, atmospheric transport and environmental accumulation of 131I from the nuclear facilities at Hanford in Washington State and the resulting dose to members of the public (Farris et al. 1994). A multi-year dose reconstruction effort (Mokrov et al. 2004) is also being conducted to produce representative dose estimates for members of the public living near Mayak, Russia, from atmospheric releases of 131I at the facilities of the Mayak Production Association. The approach to calculating individual doses to members of the public from historical releases of airborne 131I has the following general steps: • Construct estimates of releases 131I to the air from production facilities. • Model the transport of 131I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation. • Model the accumulation of 131I in soil, water and food products (environmental media). • Calculate the dose for an individual by matching the appropriate lifestyle and consumption data for the individual to the concentrations of 131I in environmental media at their residence location. A number of computer codes were developed to facilitate themore » study of airborne 131I emissions at Hanford. The RATCHET code modeled movement of 131I in the atmosphere (Ramsdell Jr. et al. 1994). The DECARTES code modeled accumulation of 131I in environmental media (Miley et al. 1994). The CIDER computer code estimated annual doses to individuals (Eslinger et al. 1994) using the equations and parameters specific to Hanford (Snyder et al. 1994). Several of the computer codes developed to model 131I releases from Hanford are general enough to be used for other facilities. This document provides user instructions for computer codes calculating doses to members of the public from atmospheric 131I that have two major differences from the Hanford modeling sequence. First, the air transport code HYSPLIT (Draxler et al. 2012) is used instead of the RATCHET code. Second, the new individual dose code CiderF replaces the older CIDER code and five auxiliary codes.« less