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Background16p13.11 microduplication syndrome has a variable presentation and is characterized primarily by neurodevelopmental and physical phenotypes resulting from copy number variation at chromosome 16p13.11. Given its variability, there may be features that have not yet been reported. The goal of this study was to use a patient “self-phenotyping” survey to collect data directly from patients to further characterize the phenotypes of 16p13.11 microduplication syndrome. ObjectiveThis study aimed to (1) discover self-identified phenotypes in 16p13.11 microduplication syndrome that have been underrepresented in the scientific literature and (2) demonstrate that self-phenotyping tools are valuable sources of data for the medical and scientific communities. MethodsAs part of a large study to compare and evaluate patient self-phenotyping surveys, an online survey tool, Phenotypr, was developed for patients with rare disorders to self-report phenotypes. Participants with 16p13.11 microduplication syndrome were recruited through the Boston Children's Hospital 16p13.11 Registry. Either the caregiver, parent, or legal guardian of an affected child or the affected person (if aged 18 years or above) completed the survey. Results were securely transferred to a Research Electronic Data Capture database and aggregated for analysis. ResultsA total of 19 participants enrolled in the study. Notably, among the 19 participants, aggression and anxiety were mentioned by 3 (16%) and 4 (21%) participants, respectively, which is an increase over the numbers in previously published literature. Additionally, among the 19 participants, 3 (16%) had asthma and 2 (11%) had other immunological disorders, both of which have not been previously described in the syndrome. ConclusionsSeveral phenotypes might be underrepresented in the previous 16p13.11 microduplication literature, and new possible phenotypes have been identified. Whenever possible, patients should continue to be referenced as a source of complete phenotyping data on their condition. Self-phenotyping may lead to a better understanding of the prevalence of phenotypes in genetic disorders and may identify previously unreported phenotypes.

BackgroundRacial and ethnic minority groups often face worse patient experiences compared with the general population, which is directly related to poorer health outcomes within these minority populations. Evaluation of patient experience among racial and ethnic minority groups has been difficult due to lack of representation in traditional health care surveys. ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the feasibility of Twitter for identifying racial and ethnic disparities in patient experience across the United States from 2013 to 2016. MethodsIn total, 851,973 patient experience tweets with geographic location information from the United States were collected from 2013 to 2016. Patient experience tweets included discussions related to care received in a hospital, urgent care, or any other health institution. Ordinary least squares multiple regression was used to model patient experience sentiment and racial and ethnic groups over the 2013 to 2016 period and in relation to the implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014. ResultsRacial and ethnic distribution of users on Twitter was highly correlated with population estimates from the United States Census Bureau’s 5-year survey from 2016 (r2=0.99; P

BackgroundNews media coverage is a powerful influence on public attitude and government action. The digitization of news media covering the current opioid epidemic has changed the landscape of coverage and may have implications for how to effectively respond to the opioid crisis. ObjectiveThis study aims to characterize the relationship between volume of online opioid news reporting and opioid-related deaths in the United States and how these measures differ across geographic and socioeconomic county-level factors. MethodsOnline news reports from February 2018 to April 2019 on opioid-related events in the United States were extracted from Google News. News data were aggregated at the county level and compared against opioid-related death counts. Ordinary least squares regression was used to model opioid-related death rate and opioid news coverage with the inclusion of socioeconomic and geographic explanatory variables. ResultsA total of 35,758 relevant news reports were collected representing 1789 counties. Regression analysis revealed that opioid-related death rate was positively associated with news reporting. However, opioid-related death rate and news reporting volume showed opposite correlations with educational attainment and rurality. When controlling for variation in death rate, counties in the Northeast were overrepresented by news coverage. ConclusionsOur results suggest that regional variation in the volume of opioid-related news reporting does not reflect regional variation in opioid-related death rate. Differences in the amount of media attention may influence perceptions of the severity of opioid epidemic. Future studies should investigate the influence of media reporting on public support and action on opioid issues.

BackgroundDiscrimination in the health care system contributes to worse health outcomes among lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) patients. ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to examine disparities in patient experience among LGBTQ persons using social media data. MethodsWe collected patient experience data from Twitter from February 2013 to February 2017 in the United States. We compared the sentiment of patient experience tweets between Twitter users who self-identified as LGBTQ and non-LGBTQ. The effect of state-level partisan identity on patient experience sentiment and differences between LGBTQ users and non-LGBTQ users were analyzed. ResultsWe observed lower (more negative) patient experience sentiment among 13,689 LGBTQ users compared to 1,362,395 non-LGBTQ users. Increasing state-level liberal political identification was associated with higher patient experience sentiment among all users but had stronger effects for LGBTQ users. ConclusionsOur findings highlight that social media data can yield insights about patient experience for LGBTQ persons and suggest that a state-level sociopolitical environment influences patient experience for this group. Efforts are needed to reduce disparities in patient care for LGBTQ persons while taking into context the effect of the political climate on these inequities.

BackgroundMore than 3.5 million Americans live with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Major challenges persist in diagnosing ASD as no medical test exists to diagnose this disorder. Digital phenotyping holds promise to guide in the clinical diagnoses and screening of ASD. ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the feasibility of using the Web-based social media platform Twitter to detect psychological and behavioral characteristics of self-identified persons with ASD. MethodsData from Twitter were retrieved from 152 self-identified users with ASD and 182 randomly selected control users from March 22, 2012 to July 20, 2017. We conducted a between-group comparative textual analysis of tweets about repetitive and obsessive-compulsive behavioral characteristics typically associated with ASD. In addition, common emotional characteristics of persons with ASD, such as fear, paranoia, and anxiety, were examined between groups through textual analysis. Furthermore, we compared the timing of tweets between users with ASD and control users to identify patterns in communication. ResultsUsers with ASD posted a significantly higher frequency of tweets related to the specific repetitive behavior of counting compared with control users (P

The US federal menu labeling law, implemented on May 7 th 2018, required that restaurant chains post calorie counts on menu items. The purpose of this study was to analyze the change in public sentiment, using Twitter data, regarding eight restaurant chains before and after the calorie labeling laws implementation. Twitter data was mined from Twitters application programming interface (API) for this study from the calendar year 2018; 2016 and was collected as a control. We selected restaurant chains that had a range of compliance dates with the law. Tweets about each chain were filtered by brand-specific keywords, and Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner (VADER) sentiment analysis was applied to receive a continuous compound score (-1-1) of how positive (1) or negative (-1) each tweet was. Controlled Interrupted Time Series (CITS) was performed with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression on 2018 and 2016 series of compound scores for each brand, and level and trend changes were calculated. Most restaurant chains that implemented the federal menu calorie labeling law experienced no change or a small change in level or trend in sentiment after they implemented labeling. Chains experienced mildly more negative sentiment right after the law was implemented, with attenuation of this effect over time. Calorie labeling did not have a strong effect on the publics perception of food brands over the long-term on Twitter and may imply the need for greater efforts to change the sentiment towards unhealthy restaurant chains.

BackgroundMultiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. ObjectiveThe aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. MethodsWe used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. ResultsWe identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. ConclusionsOur results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic resurgence without having to forecast future changes in hosts, pathogens, or the environment.

BackgroundTwitter has shown some usefulness in predicting influenza cases on a weekly basis in multiple countries and on different geographic scales. Recently, Broniatowski and colleagues suggested Twitter’s relevance at the city-level for New York City. Here, we look to dive deeper into the case of New York City by analyzing daily Twitter data from temporal and spatiotemporal perspectives. Also, through manual coding of all tweets, we look to gain qualitative insights that can help direct future automated searches. ObjectiveThe intent of the study was first to validate the temporal predictive strength of daily Twitter data for influenza-like illness emergency department (ILI-ED) visits during the New York City 2012-2013 influenza season against other available and established datasets (Google search query, or GSQ), and second, to examine the spatial distribution and the spread of geocoded tweets as proxies for potential cases. MethodsFrom the Twitter Streaming API, 2972 tweets were collected in the New York City region matching the keywords “flu”, “influenza”, “gripe”, and “high fever”. The tweets were categorized according to the scheme developed by Lamb et al. A new fourth category was added as an evaluator guess for the probability of the subject(s) being sick to account for strength of confidence in the validity of the statement. Temporal correlations were made for tweets against daily ILI-ED visits and daily GSQ volume. The best models were used for linear regression for forecasting ILI visits. A weighted, retrospective Poisson model with SaTScan software (n=1484), and vector map were used for spatiotemporal analysis. ResultsInfection-related tweets (R=.763) correlated better than GSQ time series (R=.683) for the same keywords and had a lower mean average percent error (8.4 vs 11.8) for ILI-ED visit prediction in January, the most volatile month of flu. SaTScan identified primary outbreak cluster of high-probability infection tweets with a 2.74 relative risk ratio compared to medium-probability infection tweets at P=.001 in Northern Brooklyn, in a radius that includes Barclay’s Center and the Atlantic Avenue Terminal. ConclusionsWhile others have looked at weekly regional tweets, this study is the first to stress test Twitter for daily city-level data for New York City. Extraction of personal testimonies of infection-related tweets suggests Twitter’s strength both qualitatively and quantitatively for ILI-ED prediction compared to alternative daily datasets mixed with awareness-based data such as GSQ. Additionally, granular Twitter data provide important spatiotemporal insights. A tweet vector-map may be useful for visualization of city-level spread when local gold standard data are otherwise unavailable.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. The retrospective evaluation of our models shows that simple transmission models calibrated using routine disease surveillance data can reliably capture the epidemic trajectory in multiple countries. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.

BackgroundAlternative data sources are used increasingly to augment traditional public health surveillance systems. Examples include over-the-counter medication sales and school absenteeism. ObjectiveWe sought to determine if an increase in restaurant table availabilities was associated with an increase in disease incidence, specifically influenza-like illness (ILI). MethodsRestaurant table availability was monitored using OpenTable, an online restaurant table reservation site. A daily search was performed for restaurants with available tables for 2 at the hour and at half past the hour for 22 distinct times: between 11:00 am-3:30 pm for lunch and between 6:00-11:30 PM for dinner. In the United States, we examined table availability for restaurants in Boston, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami. For Mexico, we studied table availabilities in Cancun, Mexico City, Puebla, Monterrey, and Guadalajara. Time series of restaurant use was compared with Google Flu Trends and ILI at the state and national levels for the United States and Mexico using the cross-correlation function. ResultsDifferences in restaurant use were observed across sampling times and regions. We also noted similarities in time series trends between data on influenza activity and restaurant use. In some settings, significant correlations greater than 70% were noted between data on restaurant use and ILI trends. ConclusionsThis study introduces and demonstrates the potential value of restaurant use data for event surveillance.

BackgroundPrescription opioid diversion and abuse are major public health issues in the United States and internationally. Street prices of diverted prescription opioids can provide an indicator of drug availability, demand, and abuse potential, but these data can be difficult to collect. Crowdsourcing is a rapid and cost-effective way to gather information about sales transactions. We sought to determine whether crowdsourcing can provide accurate measurements of the street price of diverted prescription opioid medications. ObjectiveTo assess the possibility of crowdsourcing black market drug price data by cross-validation with law enforcement officer reports. MethodsUsing a crowdsourcing research website (StreetRx), we solicited data about the price that site visitors paid for diverted prescription opioid analgesics during the first half of 2012. These results were compared with a survey of law enforcement officers in the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS) System, and actual transaction prices on a “dark Internet” marketplace (Silk Road). Geometric means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for comparing prices per milligram of drug in US dollars. In a secondary analysis, we compared prices per milligram of morphine equivalent using standard equianalgesic dosing conversions. ResultsA total of 954 price reports were obtained from crowdsourcing, 737 from law enforcement, and 147 from the online marketplace. Correlations between the 3 data sources were highly linear, with Spearman rho of 0.93 (P

Background Personally controlled health records (PCHRs) are accessible over the Internet and allow individuals to maintain and manage a secure copy of their medical data. These records provide a new opportunity to provide customized health recommendations to individuals based on their record content. Health promotion programs using PCHRs can potentially be used in a variety of settings and target a large range of health issues. Objectives The aim was to assess the value of a PCHR in an employee health promotion program for improving knowledge, beliefs, and behavior around influenza prevention. Methods We evaluated a PCHR-based employee health promotion program using a randomized controlled trial design. Employees at Hewlett Packard work sites who reported reliable Internet access and email use at least once every 2 days were recruited for participation. PCHRs were provided to all participants for survey administration, and tailored, targeted health messages on influenza illness and prevention were delivered to participants in the intervention group. Participants in the control group received messages addressing cardiovascular health and sun protection. The main outcome measure was improvement in knowledge, beliefs, and behavior around influenza prevention. Secondary outcomes were influenza vaccine rates among household members, the impact of cardiovascular health and sun protection messages on the control group, and the usability and utility of the PCHR-based program for employees. Results The intervention did not have a statistically significant effect on the influenza knowledge elements we assessed but did impact certain beliefs surrounding influenza. Participants in the intervention group were more likely to believe that the influenza vaccine was effective (OR = 5.6; 95% CI = 1.7-18.5), that there were actions they could take to prevent the flu (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.1-9.2), and that the influenza vaccine was unlikely to cause a severe reaction (OR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.3-15.3). Immunization rates did not differ between the intervention and control groups. However, participants in the intervention group were more likely to stay home during an infectious respiratory illness compared with participants in the control group (39% [16/41] vs 14% [5/35], respectively; P = .02). The program also succeeded in improving recognition of the signs of heart attack and stroke among participants in the control group. Overall, 78% of participants rated the PCHR as “extremely/very” easy to use, and 73% responded that they would be “extremely/very” likely to participate again in a PCHR-based health promotion system such as this one. Conclusions With a small sample size, this study identified a modest impact of a PCHR-based employee health program on influenza prevention and control. Employees found the PCHR acceptable and easy to use, suggesting that it should be explored as a common medium for health promotion in the workplace. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT00142077

As policies are adjusted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic according to public health best practices, there is a need to balance the importance of social distancing in preventing viral spread with the strain that these governmental public safety mandates put on public mental health. Thus, there is need for continuous observation of public sentiment and deliberation to inform further adaptation of mandated interventions. In this study, we explore how public response may be reflected in Massachusetts (MA) via social media by specifically exploring temporal patterns in Twitter posts (tweets) regarding sentiment and discussion of topics. We employ interrupted time series centered on (1) Massachusetts State of Emergency declaration (March 10), (2) US State of Emergency declaration (March 13) and (3) Massachusetts public school closure (March 17) to explore changes in tweet sentiment polarity (net negative/positive), expressed anxiety and discussion on risk and health topics on a random subset of all tweets coded within Massachusetts and published from January 1 to May 15, 2020 (n = 2.8 million). We find significant differences between tweets published before and after mandate enforcement for Massachusetts State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, decreased polarity and increased anxiety expression), US State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, and increased anxiety expression) and Massachusetts public school closure (increased discussion of risk and decreased polarity). Our work further validates that Twitter data is a reasonable way to monitor public sentiment and discourse within a crisis, especially in conjunction with other observation data.

As policies are adjusted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic according to public health best practices, there is a need to balance the importance of social distancing in preventing viral spread with the strain that these governmental public safety mandates put on public mental health. Thus, there is need for continuous observation of public sentiment and deliberation to inform further adaptation of mandated interventions. In this study, we explore how public response may be reflected in Massachusetts (MA) via social media by specifically exploring temporal patterns in Twitter posts (tweets) regarding sentiment and discussion of topics. We employ interrupted time series centered on (1) Massachusetts State of Emergency declaration (March 10), (2) US State of Emergency declaration (March 13) and (3) Massachusetts public school closure (March 17) to explore changes in tweet sentiment polarity (net negative/positive), expressed anxiety and discussion on risk and health topics on a random subset of all tweets coded within Massachusetts and published from January 1 to May 15, 2020 (n = 2.8 million). We find significant differences between tweets published before and after mandate enforcement for Massachusetts State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, decreased polarity and increased anxiety expression), US State of Emergency (increased discussion of risk and health, and increased anxiety expression) and Massachusetts public school closure (increased discussion of risk and decreased polarity). Our work further validates that Twitter data is a reasonable way to monitor public sentiment and discourse within a crisis, especially in conjunction with other observation data.

In the United States, cocaine use and mortality have surged in the past 5 years. Considering cocaine's reputation as a fashionable social drug, the rise of cocaine mentions in popular music may provide a signal of epidemiological trends of cocaine use. We characterized the relationship between mentions of cocaine in song lyrics and incidence of cocaine use and mortality in the US. Incidence of cocaine use from 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and cocaine overdose mortality rate from 2000 to 2017 was obtained from the Centers for Disease Control. Distributed lag models were fit using ordinary least squares on the first difference to identify associations between changes in cocaine lyric mentions and changes in incidence of cocaine use and mortality. A total of 5955 song lyrics with cocaine mentions were obtained from Lyrics.com. Cocaine mentions in song lyrics were stable from 2000 to 2010 then increased by 190% from 2010 to 2017. The first-order distributed lag model estimated that a 0.01 increase in mentions of cocaine in song lyrics is associated with an 11% increase in incidence of cocaine use within the same year and a 14% increase in cocaine mortality with a 2-year lag. Lag-times were confirmed with cross-correlation analyses and the association remained after accounting for street pricing of cocaine. Mentions of cocaine in song lyrics are associated with the rise of incidence of cocaine use and cocaine overdose mortality. Popular music trends are a potentially valuable tool for understanding cocaine epidemiology trends.

While efficacious vaccines have been developed to inoculate against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; also known as COVID-19), public vaccine hesitancy could still undermine efforts to combat the pandemic. Employing a survey of 1096 adult Americans recruited via the Lucid platform, we examined the relationships between vaccine attributes, proposed policy interventions such as financial incentives, and misinformation on public vaccination preferences. Higher degrees of vaccine efficacy significantly increased individuals' willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, while a high incidence of minor side effects, a co-pay, and Emergency Use Authorization to fast-track the vaccine decreased willingness. The vaccine manufacturer had no influence on public willingness to vaccinate. We also found no evidence that belief in misinformation about COVID-19 treatments was positively associated with vaccine hesitancy. The findings have implications for public health strategies intending to increase levels of community vaccination.

Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1-4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.

Effective and timely disease surveillance systems have the potential to help public health officials design interventions to mitigate the effects of disease outbreaks. Currently, healthcare-based disease monitoring systems in France offer influenza activity information that lags real-time by one to three weeks. This temporal data gap introduces uncertainty that prevents public health officials from having a timely perspective on the population-level disease activity. Here, we present a machine-learning modeling approach that produces real-time estimates and short-term forecasts of influenza activity for the twelve continental regions of France by leveraging multiple disparate data sources that include, Google search activity, real-time and local weather information, flu-related Twitter micro-blogs, electronic health records data, and historical disease activity synchronicities across regions. Our results show that all data sources contribute to improving influenza surveillance and that machine-learning ensembles that combine all data sources lead to accurate and timely predictions.

Public awareness of calories in food sold in retail establishments is a primary objective of the menu labeling law. This study explores the extent to which we can use social media and internet search queries to understand whether the federal calorie labeling law increased awareness of calories. To evaluate the association of the federal menu labeling law with tweeting about calories we retrieved tweets that contained the term "calorie(s)" from the CompEpi Geo Twitter Database from 1 January through 31 December in 2016 and 2018. Within the same time period, we also retrieved time-series data for search queries related to calories via Google Trends (GT). Interrupted time-series analysis was used to test whether the federal menu labeling law was associated with a change in mentions of "calorie(s)" on Twitter and relative search queries to calories on GT. Before the implementation of the federal calorie labeling law on 7 May 2018, there was a significant decrease in the baseline trend of 4.37 × 10-8 (SE = 1.25 × 10-8, p < 0.001) mean daily ratio of calorie(s) tweets. A significant increase in post-implementation slope of 3.19 × 10-8 (SE = 1.34 × 10-8 , p < 0.018) mean daily ratio of calorie(s) tweets was seen compared to the pre-implementation slope. An interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis showed a small, statistically significant upward trend of 0.0043 (SE = 0.036, p < 0.001) weekly search queries for calories pre-implementation, with no significant level change post-implementation. There was a decrease in trend of 1.22 (SE = 0.27, p < 0.001) in search queries for calories post-implementation. The federal calorie labeling law was associated with a 173% relative increase in the trend of mean daily ratio of tweets and a -28381% relative change in trend for search queries for calories. Twitter results demonstrate an increase in awareness of calories because of the addition of menu labels. Google Trends results imply that fewer people are searching for the calorie content of their meal, which may no longer be needed since calorie information is provided at point of purchase. Given our findings, discussions online about calories may provide a signal of an increased awareness in the implementation of calorie labels.

ObjectivesRapid detection and surveillance of COVID-19 is essential to reducing spread of the virus. Inadequate screening capacity has hampered COVID-19 detection, while traditional infectious disease response has been delayed due to significant demands for healthcare resources, time and personnel. This study investigated whether an online health decision-support tool could supplement COVID-19 surveillance and detection in China and the USA.SettingDaily website traffic to Thermia was collected from China and the USA, and cross-correlation analyses were used to assess the designated lag time between the daily time series of Thermia sessions and COVID-19 case counts from 22 January to 23 April 2020.ParticipantsThermia is a validated health decision-support tool that was modified to include content aimed at educating users about Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations on COVID-19 symptoms. An advertising campaign was released on Microsoft Advertising to refer searches for COVID-19 symptoms to Thermia.ResultsThe lead times observed for Thermia sessions to COVID-19 case reports was 3 days in China and 19 days in the USA. We found negative cross-correlation between the number of Thermia sessions and rates of influenza A and B, possibly due to the decreasing prevalence of influenza and the lack of specificity of the system for identification of COVID-19.ConclusionThis study suggests that early deployment of an online campaign and modified health decision-support tool may support identification of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19. Researchers and public health officials should deploy web campaigns as early as possible in an epidemic to detect, identify and engage those potentially at risk to help prevent transmission of the disease.

PurposeThe purpose was to use Twitter to conduct online surveillance of negative sentiment towards Mexicans and Hispanics during the 2016 United States presidential election, and to examine its relationship with mental well-being in this targeted group at the population level.MethodsTweets containing the terms Mexican(s) and Hispanic(s) were collected within a 20-week period of the 2016 United States presidential election (November 9th 2016). Sentiment analysis was used to capture percent negative tweets. A time series lag regression model was used to examine the association between percent count of negative tweets mentioning Mexicans and Hispanics and percent count of worry among Hispanic Gallup poll respondents.ResultsOf 2,809,641 tweets containing terms Mexican(s) and Hispanic(s), 687,291 tweets were negative. Among 8,314 Hispanic Gallup respondents, a mean of 33.5% responded to be worried on a daily basis. A significant lead time of 1 week was observed, showing that negative tweets mentioning Mexicans and Hispanics appeared to forecast daily worry among Hispanics by 1 week.ConclusionSurveillance of online negative sentiment towards racially vulnerable population groups can be captured using social media. This has potential to identify early warning signals for symptoms of mental well-being among targeted groups at the population level.

Increasing capacity to provide buprenorphine, a treatment for opioid addiction, can help mitigate the opioid epidemic in the United States. This study models black-market pricing of buprenorphine to better understand supply and demand for opioid addiction treatment. A mixed effects linear model was used to quantify the effect of county-level racial composition, health insurance coverage, and drug characteristics on price variation. From November 2010 to June 2018, there were 2481 submissions for street buprenorphine transactions in the StreetRx dataset. The mean price was $3.95/mg (SD = $23.12/mg). Price decreased 3.05% each year and was highest in the summer and spring. Brand name buprenorphine was on average 11.18% more expensive than generic buprenorphine. Buprenorphine/naloxone combinations were on average 19.75% less expensive than pure buprenorphine. Purchases in bulk were on average 10.51% cheaper than purchases not in bulk. Street buprenorphine in film form was on average 14.34% more expensive than in pill/tablet form. Buprenorphine street price was 17.12% higher in spring and 22.26% higher in summer compared to fall. For every percentage point increase in percent white, buprenorphine sold for 0.88% higher price. For every percentage point increase in health insurance coverage, street buprenorphine sold for 0.02% lower price. Findings demonstrate that geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors shape the diversion of opioid addiction treatment to the black-market. Buprenorphine street pricing can help estimate public need, gaps in care and emerging public health priorities.

The rapid pace of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19) pandemic presents challenges to the real-time collection of population-scale data to inform near-term public health needs as well as future investigations. We established the COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) consortium to address this unprecedented crisis on behalf of the epidemiology research community. As a central component of this initiative, we have developed a COVID Symptom Study (previously known as the COVID Symptom Tracker) mobile application as a common data collection tool for epidemiologic cohort studies with active study participants. This mobile application collects information on risk factors, daily symptoms, and outcomes through a user-friendly interface that minimizes participant burden. Combined with our efforts within the general population, data collected from nearly 3 million participants in the United States and United Kingdom are being used to address critical needs in the emergency response, including identifying potential hot spots of disease and clinically actionable risk factors. The linkage of symptom data collected in the app with information and biospecimens already collected in epidemiology cohorts will position us to address key questions related to diet, lifestyle, environmental, and socioeconomic factors on susceptibility to COVID-19, clinical outcomes related to infection, and long-term physical, mental health, and financial sequalae. We call upon additional epidemiology cohorts to join this collective effort to strengthen our impact on the current health crisis and generate a new model for a collaborative and nimble research infrastructure that will lead to more rapid translation of our work for the betterment of public health.

Limited research has evaluated these equitable policies because of the difficulty of capturing LGBTQ patient experience. Previous studies have shown that LGBTQ persons report increased rates of discrimination across a wide variety of healthcare settings which may prevent them from disclosing their LGBTQ status. The goal of this research was to use a social media big dataset to evaluate the impact of equitable policies on patient experiences for LGBTQ persons.

Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making.

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in the Northern Hemisphere. Existing estimates of Lyme disease spread are delayed a year or more. We introduce Lymelight-a new method for monitoring the incidence of Lyme disease in real-time. We use a machine-learned classifier of web search sessions to estimate the number of individuals who search for possible Lyme disease symptoms in a given geographical area for two years, 2014 and 2015. We evaluate Lymelight using the official case count data from CDC and find a 92% correlation (p

BackgroundMedia reporting on communicable diseases has been demonstrated to affect the perception of the public. Communicable disease reporting related to foreign-born persons has not yet been evaluated.ObjectiveExamine how political leaning in the media affects reporting on tuberculosis (TB) in foreign-born persons.MethodsHealthMap, a digital surveillance platform that aggregates news sources on global infectious diseases, was used. Data was queried for media reports from the U.S. between 2011-2019, containing the term "TB" or "tuberculosis" and "foreign born", "refugee (s)," or "im (migrants)." Reports were reviewed to exclude duplicates and non-human cases. Each media source was rated using two independent media bias indicators to assess political leaning. Forty-six non-tuberculosis reports were randomly sampled and evaluated as a control. Two independent reviewers performed sentiment analysis on each report.ResultsOf 891 TB-associated reports in the US, 46 referenced foreign-born individuals, and were included in this analysis. 60.9% (28) of reports were published in right-leaning news media and 6.5% (3) of reports in left-leaning media, while 39.1% (18) of the control group reports were published in left- leaning media and 10.9% (5) in right-leaning media (p < .001). 43% (20) of all study reports were posted in 2016. Sentiment analysis revealed that right-leaning reports often portrayed foreign-born persons negatively.ConclusionPreliminary data from this pilot suggest that political leaning may affect reporting on TB in US foreign-born populations. Right-leaning news organizations produced the most reports on TB, and the majority of these reports portrayed foreign-born persons negatively. In addition, the control group comprised of non-TB, non-foreign born reports on communicable diseases featured a higher percentage of left-leaning news outlets, suggesting that reporting on TB in foreign-born individuals may be of greater interest to right-leaning outlets. Further investigation both in the U.S. and globally is needed.

Infectious disease outbreaks play an important role in global morbidity and mortality. Real-time epidemic forecasting provides an opportunity to predict geographic disease spread as well as case counts to better inform public health interventions when outbreaks occur. Challenges and recent advances in predictive modeling are discussed here. We identified data needs in the areas of epidemic surveillance, mobility, host and environmental susceptibility, pathogen transmissibility, population density, and healthcare capacity. Constraints in standardized case definitions and timely data sharing can limit the precision of predictive models. Resource-limited settings present particular challenges for accurate epidemic forecasting due to the lack of granular data available. Incorporating novel data streams into modeling efforts is an important consideration for the future as technology penetration continues to improve on a global level. Recent advances in machine-learning, increased collaboration between modelers, the use of stochastic semi-mechanistic models, real-time digital disease surveillance data, and open data sharing provide opportunities for refining forecasts for future epidemics. Epidemic forecasting using predictive modeling is an important tool for outbreak preparedness and response efforts. Despite the presence of some data gaps at present, opportunities and advancements in innovative data streams provide additional support for modeling future epidemics.

In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Air pollution is a serious public health concern. Innovative and scalable methods for detecting harmful air pollutants such as PM2.5 are necessary. This study assessed the feasibility of using social media to monitor outdoor air pollution in an urban area by comparing data from Twitter and validating it against established air monitoring stations. Data were collected from London, England from July 29, 2016 to March 17, 2017. Daily mean PM2.5 data was downloaded from the LondonAir platform consisting of 26 air pollution monitoring sites throughout Greater London. Publicly available tweets geo-located to Greater London containing air pollution terms were captured from the Twitter platform. Tweets with media URL links were excluded to minimize influence of news stories. Sentiment of the tweets was examined as negative, positive, or neutral. Cross-correlation analyses were used to compare the relationship between trends of tweets about air pollution and levels of PM2.5 over time. There were 16,448 tweets without a media URL link, with a mean of 498.42 (SD = 491.08) tweets per week. A significant cross-correlation coefficient of 0.803 was observed between PM2.5 data and the non-media air pollution tweets (p

Digital technologies hold promise for supporting the detection and management of schizophrenia. This exploratory study aimed to generate an initial understanding of whether patterns of communication about depression and anxiety on popular social media among individuals with schizophrenia are consistent with offline representations of the illness. From January to July 2016, posts on Twitter were collected from a sample of Twitter users who self-identify as having a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (n = 203) and a randomly selected sample of control users (n = 173). Frequency and timing of communication about depression and anxiety were compared between groups. In total, the groups posted n = 1,544,122 tweets and users had similar characteristics. Twitter users with schizophrenia showed significantly greater odds of tweeting about depression compared with control users (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.76-4.10), and significantly greater odds of tweeting about anxiety compared with control users (OR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.20-2.73). This study offers preliminary insights that Twitter users with schizophrenia may express elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety in their online posts, which is consistent with clinical characteristics of schizophrenia observed in offline settings. Social media platforms could further our understanding of schizophrenia by informing a digital phenotype and may afford new opportunities to support early illness detection.