Search

In the standard macroeconomic search and matching model of the labor market, there is a tight link between the quantitative effects of (i) aggregate productivity shocks on unemployment and (ii) unemployment benefits on unemployment. This tight link is at odds with the empirical literature. We show that a two-sided model of labor market search where the household and firm decisions are decomposed into job offers, job acceptances, firing, and quits can break this link. In such a model, unemployment benefits affect households' behavior directly, without having to run via the bargained wage. A calibration of the model based on U.S. JOLTS data generates both a solid amplification of productivity shocks and a moderate effect of benefits on unemployment. Our analysis shows the importance of investigating the effects of policies on the households' work incentives and the firms' employment incentives within the search process.

"This paper describes the practical implementation of hiring vouchers in Germany. According to our proposal, employers receive vouchers for hiring long-term unemployed, low-ability workers. Thereby labor costs are reduced for a limited period of time. The size of the vouchers increases with the duration of unemployment as well as with the qualification and it decreases with the subsequent employment duration. We specify a time profile for self-financing hiring vouchers for a broad range of unemployment durations and skills. We develop a simple formula to calculate the size of the voucher depending on the wage, the duration of unemployment and the subsequent employment duration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

This paper sheds new light on the effects of the minimum wage on employment from a two-sided theoretical perspective, in which firms' job offer and workers' job acceptance decisions are disentangled. Minimum wages reduce job offer incentives and increase job acceptance incentives. We show that sufficiently low minimum wages may do no harm to employment, since their job-offer disincentives are countervailed by their job-acceptance incentives.

This paper provides a new perspective by classifying active labor market programs (ALMPs) depending on their main objectives and their relevance and cost-effectiveness during normal times, during a crisis, and during recovery. We distinguish ALMPs that provide: (i) incentives for retaining employment, (ii) incentives for creating employment, (iii) incentives for seeking and keeping a job, (iv) incentives for human capital enhancement, and (v) improved labor market matching. Reviewing evidence from the literature, we discuss direct and indirect effects of various interventions, their cost-effectiveness, and draw lessons for transition and developing countries. The paper concludes by providing a systematic overview of how, why, when and to what extent specific ALMPs are effective. In particular, the paper shows that ALMPs retaining employment, like work sharing schemes, should be applied in severe recessions for a limited time period of time only. ALMPs creating employment, like hiring subsidies, perform much better on cost-effectiveness and strengthen the outsiders' position in the labor market, especially during recoveries. In-work benefits and public works are not very cost-efficient in terms of raising employment, but might be cost-efficient in reducing poverty and inequity. Policies readjusting distorted employment incentives, such as activation and sanction measures, have proven to provide cost-effective results during normal times.

Globalization has entered a new stage, with new and varying constellations of winners and losers and thus, calls for a new policy paradigm. In contrast to the traditional way of thinking - the welfare state redistributes purchasing power to the disadvantaged to support them in the event of adverse shocks - now workers must be made more adaptable and be encouraged to stabilize themselves if hurt from globalization. This dissertation examines several labour market policies with various incentive models of the labour market, which explain the microeconomic decisions relevant to the transitions in the labour market in terms of the incentives that economic agents face. To fulfil its new role the following three reform policies for the welfare state are analysed: Unemployment accounts, employment subsidies and flexicurity. Finally, a new modelling strategy of two-sided search with frictions and heterogeneities, which is able to account for empirical stylized facts, is proposed for future policy analysis and prediction. Die neue Phase der Globalisierung, die immer neue und wechselnde Konstellationen von Gewinnern und Verlierern der Globalisierung hervorbringt, fordern nach einem neuen Politikmuster. Im Gegensatz zum traditionellen Denkansatz - der Wohlfahrtsstaat verteilt Kaufkraft an die benachteiligten um - müssen Arbeitnehmer jetzt anpassungsfähiger werden und deart unterstützt werden, dass sie sich selbst stabilisiern können, wenn sie zu Globalisierungsverlierern werden. Diese Dissertation behandeln verschiedene Arbeitsmarktpolitiken mit mehreren anreizbasierten Arbeitsmarktmodellen, die die mikroökonomischen Entscheidungen der Agenten in Bezug auf ihre Übergänge zwischen Abreitsmarktzuständen durch die Beschäftigungsanreize erklären. Es werden drei Reformmaßnahmen analysiert, die der neuen Rolle des Wohlfahrtsstaates gerecht werden: Beschäftigungskonten, Beschäftigungssubventionen und Flexicurity. Abschließend wird ein neuer Modellierungsansatz mit beidseitigem Suchverhalten, Friktionen und Heterogenitäten für zukünftige Politikanalyse und Vorhersage präsentiert, der empirische Fakten replizieren kann.

This paper analyses how and to which degree the Danish flexicurity concept and its various elements achieve the renowned Danish miracle by evaluating their unemployment and inequality effects and their complementarities. We develop a microfounded model of searching workers and firms, calibrate it to Germany and perform the policy experiment of implementing the full Danish flexicurity set of policies (low employment protection, high unemployment benefits and workfare). Our results show that implementing the Danish flexicurity concept in Germany would reduce unemployment and earnings inequality substantially. Furthermore our analysis illustrates that the Danish flexicurity policies have some apparent complementarities in Germany - the reduction of unemployment effect is nearly 40% greater when the policies are implemented in conjunction than in isolation.

This lecture is a tour d'horizon of the financial crisis aimed at extracting lessons for future financial regulation. It combines normative recommendations based on conventional welfare economics with positive assessments of the kind of measures likely to be adopted based on political economy considerations.

Globalization has entered a new stage, with new and varying constellations of winners and losers and thus, calls for a new policy paradigm. In contrast to the traditional way of thinking - the welfare state redistributes purchasing power to the disadvantaged to support them in the event of adverse shocks - now workers must be made more adaptable and be encouraged to stabilize themselves if hurt from globalization. This dissertation examines several labour market policies with various incentive models of the labour market, which explain the microeconomic decisions relevant to the transitions in the labour market in terms of the incentives that economic agents face. To fulfil its new role the following three reform policies for the welfare state are analysed: Unemployment accounts, employment subsidies and flexicurity. Finally, a new modelling strategy of two-sided search with frictions and heterogeneities, which is able to account for empirical stylized facts, is proposed for future policy analysis and prediction.

In jüngster Zeit wurde eine Vielzahl von Kombilohnvorschlägen zur Bekämpfung der Arbeitslosigkeit gemacht (vgl. z.B. Sinn et al. 2006; Sachverständigenrat 2006). Diese sollen Abhilfe bei der persistenten Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit und den hohen Arbeitslosenraten bei Niedrigqualifizierten schaffen. In einer Studie analysieren wir die Auswirkungen verschiedener Kombilohnmaßnahmen auf die Beschäftigung, die Einkommensverteilung und den Staatshaushalt in Deutschland (vgl. Brown, Merkl und Snower 2006). Die Studie kommt zum Ergebnis, dass die üblicherweise diskutierten Kombilohnmodelle (dauerhafte Lohnsubventionen für Niedrigverdiener) weder ein effektives Instrument zur Schaffung von Beschäftigung in Deutschland noch das beste Instrument zur Bekämpfung der Einkommensungleichheit sind. Einstellungsgutscheine (befristete Lohnsubventionen für Neueinstellungen) für Langzeitarbeitslose oder niedrig qualifizierte Arbeitnehmer sind weitaus wirkungsvoller. Das schlechtere Abschneiden von Kombilöhnen ist auf wesentlich höhere Mitnahmeeffekte und höhere Lohnforderungen (Lohneffekte) zurückzuführen. Die gegen Einstellungsgutscheine häufig vorgebrachten Drehtüreffekte stellen hingegen kein großes makroökonomisches Problem dar, denn hier überwiegen die positiven Klebeeffekte.

Dieses Papier erläutert die praktische Umsetzung des Konzeptes der Einstellungsgutscheine (Kieler Arbeitspapier 1302 "Comparing the Effectiveness of Employment Subsidies" von Alessio Brown, Christian Merkl und Dennis Snower). Nach unserem Konzept werden den Arbeitgebern bei der Einstellung von Langzeitarbeitslosen und Geringqualifizierten Einstellungsgutscheine ausgehändigt, wodurch die Lohnkosten befristet während der ersten Zeit der Beschäftigung sinken. Die Höhe der befristeten Gutscheine soll mit der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit steigen sowie mit der Qualifikation und der anschließenden Beschäftigungsdauer abnehmen. Exemplarisch wird für die selbstfinanzierenden Gutscheine dies für verschiedene Dauern der Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit und verschiedene Qualifikationen konkretisiert. Es wird eine einfache Formel entwickelt, mit der die Höhe des Gutscheins in Abhängigkeit vom neuen Lohn, der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit und der Beschäftigungsdauer berechnet werden kann. This paper describes the practical implementation of hiring vouchers in Germany (Kiel Working Paper 1302 "Comparing the Effectiveness of Employment Subsidies" by Alessio Brown, Christian Merkl and Dennis Snower). According to our proposal employers receive vouchers for hiring longterm unemployed, low-ability workers. Thereby, labour costs are reduced for a limited period of time. The size of the vouchers increases with the duration of unemployment as well as with the qualification and decreases with the subsequent employment duration. We exemplify the concept for self-financing hiring vouchers for a broad range of unemployment durations and qualifications. We develop a simple formula to calculate the size of the voucher depending on the new wage, the duration of unemployment and the subsequent employment duration.

This paper provides a theoretical and quantitative analysis of various types of wellknown employment subsidies. Two important questions are addressed: (i) How should employment subsidies be targeted? (ii) How large should the subsidies be? We consider measures involving targeting workers with low incomes/abilities and targeting the unemployed. To make our analysis particularly useful to policy makers, we focus on policies that are "approximately welfare efficient," i.e. policies that (a) improve employment and welfare, (b) do not raise earnings inequality and (c) are self-financing. This criterion enables us to identify policies which satisfy these favorable properties and to determine the size of the subsidies required for this purpose. We construct a simple, dynamic model of hiring and separations, derived from microfoundations, and calibrate it with German data. The calibration shows that hiring vouchers targeted at the long-term unemployed and low-income/ability workers can be approximately welfare efficient, while low-wage subsidies do not satisfy this criterion. Even in terms of inequality reduction low-wage subsidies are outperformed by targeted hiring vouchers. Furthermore, hiring vouchers targeted at the long-term unemployed are more effective than hiring vouchers targeted at low-income/ability workers. These subsidy rankings also hold if the self-financing constraint is relaxed and the government spends a given additional amount on the subsidies.

Wir präsentieren einen Vorschlag für die Neuausrichtung der Arbeitslosenunterstützung in Deutschland: die Einführung von Beschäftigungskonten. Anstatt Steuern/Beiträge zu zahlen, die die Arbeitslosenunterstützung finanzieren, zahlen Beschäftigte laufend auf Ihre Beschäftigungskonten ein, von denen sie während der Arbeitslosigkeit Beträge abheben können. Werden Beschäftigungskonten eingeführt, so werden die Beschäftigungsanreize gestärkt, ohne die existierende Umverteilung signifikant zu verändern. Wir stellen detailliert dar, wie ein solches System von Beschäftigungskonten in Deutschland ausgestaltet und implementiert werden kann. Um die Einführung von Beschäftigungskonten so transparent wie möglich zu machen, wird das neue System als ein Teil des bisherigen Systems aufgefasst und alle weiteren institutionellen Regelungen werden beibehalten. We present a proposal for reforming unemployment assistance in Germany through the introduction of unemployment accounts (UAs). Instead of paying taxes that finance the unemployment assistance, employed people make ongoing contributions to their UAs and can make withdrawals from these accounts during periods of unemployment. The aim of this policy proposal is to improve employment incentives without significant changes in the current redistribution scheme. We provide a detailed account of how such a system of UAs can be designed and implemented in Germany. To make the influence of UAs as transparent as possible and to avoid introducing other reforms that may make significant bodies of people worse off, we assume that UAs are integrated within the existing unemployment support system, keeping all institutional rules regarding conditions, duration and size of entitlements as well as interpersonal redistribution unchanged.

This paper provides a theoretical and quantitative analysis of various types of wellknown employment subsidies. Two important questions are addressed: (i) How should employment subsidies be targeted? (ii) How large should the subsidies be? We consider measures involving targeting workers with low incomes/abilities and targeting the unemployed. To make our analysis particularly useful to policy makers, we focus on policies that are "approximately welfare efficient," i.e. policies that (a) improve employment and welfare, (b) do not raise earnings inequality and (c) are self-financing. This criterion enables us to identify policies which satisfy these favorable properties and to determine the size of the subsidies required for this purpose. We construct a simple, dynamic model of hiring and separations, derived from microfoundations, and calibrate it with German data. The calibration shows that hiring vouchers targeted at the long-term unemployed and low-income/ability workers can be approximately welfare efficient, while low-wage subsidies do not satisfy this criterion. Even in terms of inequality reduction low-wage subsidies are outperformed by targeted hiring vouchers. Furthermore, hiring vouchers targeted at the long-term unemployed are more effective than hiring vouchers targeted at low-income/ability workers. These subsidy rankings also hold if the self-financing constraint is relaxed and the government spends a given additional amount on the subsidies.

We explore the far-reaching implications of replacing current unemployment benefit (UB) systems by an unemployment accounts (UA) system. Under the UA system, employed people are required to make ongoing contributions to their UAs and the balances in these accounts are available to them during periods of unemployment. The government is able to undertake balancedbudget interpersonal redistributions among the UAs. At the end of their working lives, people could transfer the remaining balances on their UAs into their pensions. We present an analytical framework to analyse the incentive effects of UAs and calibrate our model for the high unemployment countries of Europe. Our results suggest that this policy reform would significantly change people's employment incentives and could achieve reductions in unemployment without reducing the level of support to the unemployed.

Since 1999 an increase in magnitude and volatility of the credit spread is observable in the German bond market. This paper analyses the credit spread of German industrial bonds focussing on the one hand on the recent period of high volatility of the credit spread and on the other hand on possible influences of structural demand and supply effects. Our empirical estimation is conducted using an Error Correction Model (ECM) for a dataset of monthly time series from 1970 to 2003. We provide evidence on a significant impact of supply effects on the credit spread. Our in-sample forecasts trace the volatility of the credit spread surprisingly well.