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Biological age scores are an emerging tool to characterize aging by estimating chronological age based on physiological biomarkers. Various scores have shown associations with aging-related outcomes. This study assessed the relation between an age score based on brain MRI images (BrainAge) and an age score based on metabolomic biomarkers (MetaboAge). We trained a federated deep learning model to estimate BrainAge in three cohorts. The federated BrainAge model yielded significantly lower error for age prediction across the cohorts than locally trained models. Harmonizing the age interval between cohorts further improved BrainAge accuracy. Subsequently, we compared BrainAge with MetaboAge using federated association and survival analyses. The results showed a small association between BrainAge and MetaboAge as well as a higher predictive value for the time to mortality of both scores combined than for the individual scores. Hence, our study suggests that both aging scores capture different aspects of the aging process.

Deep learning has achieved impressive performance across various medical imaging tasks. However, its inherent bias against specific groups hinders its clinical applicability in equitable healthcare systems. A recently discovered phenomenon, Neural Collapse (NC), has shown potential in improving the generalization of state-of-the-art deep learning models. Nonetheless, its implications on bias in medical imaging remain unexplored. Our study investigates deep learning fairness through the lens of NC. We analyze the training dynamics of models as they approach NC when training using biased datasets, and examine the subsequent impact on test performance, specifically focusing on label bias. We find that biased training initially results in different NC configurations across subgroups, before converging to a final NC solution by memorizing all data samples. Through extensive experiments on three medical imaging datasets -- PAPILA, HAM10000, and CheXpert -- we find that in biased settings, NC can lead to a significant drop in F1 score across all subgroups. Our code is available at https://gitlab.com/radiology/neuro/neural-collapse-fairness

AI has greatly enhanced medical image analysis, yet its use in epidemiological population imaging studies remains limited due to visualization challenges in non-linear models and lack of confounder control. Addressing this, we introduce an AI method emphasizing semantic feature interpretation and resilience against multiple confounders. Our approach's merits are tested in three scenarios: extracting confounder-free features from a 2D synthetic dataset; examining the association between prenatal alcohol exposure and children's facial shapes using 3D mesh data; exploring the relationship between global cognition and brain images with a 3D MRI dataset. Results confirm our method effectively reduces confounder influences, establishing less confounded associations. Additionally, it provides a unique visual representation, highlighting specific image alterations due to identified correlations., Comment: 18 pages; 7 figures

Machine learning methods have shown large potential for the automatic early diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). However, some machine learning methods based on imaging data have poor interpretability because it is usually unclear how they make their decisions. Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs) are interpretable machine learning models based on the statistical framework of generalized additive modeling, but have so far only been used for tabular data. Therefore, we propose a framework that combines the strength of EBM with high-dimensional imaging data using deep learning-based feature extraction. The proposed framework is interpretable because it provides the importance of each feature. We validated the proposed framework on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, achieving accuracy of 0.883 and area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.970 on AD and control classification. Furthermore, we validated the proposed framework on an external testing set, achieving accuracy of 0.778 and AUC of 0.887 on AD and subjective cognitive decline (SCD) classification. The proposed framework significantly outperformed an EBM model using volume biomarkers instead of deep learning-based features, as well as an end-to-end convolutional neural network (CNN) with optimized architecture., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

Imaging markers of cerebral small vessel disease provide valuable information on brain health, but their manual assessment is time-consuming and hampered by substantial intra- and interrater variability. Automated rating may benefit biomedical research, as well as clinical assessment, but diagnostic reliability of existing algorithms is unknown. Here, we present the results of the \textit{VAscular Lesions DetectiOn and Segmentation} (\textit{Where is VALDO?}) challenge that was run as a satellite event at the international conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Aided Intervention (MICCAI) 2021. This challenge aimed to promote the development of methods for automated detection and segmentation of small and sparse imaging markers of cerebral small vessel disease, namely enlarged perivascular spaces (EPVS) (Task 1), cerebral microbleeds (Task 2) and lacunes of presumed vascular origin (Task 3) while leveraging weak and noisy labels. Overall, 12 teams participated in the challenge proposing solutions for one or more tasks (4 for Task 1 - EPVS, 9 for Task 2 - Microbleeds and 6 for Task 3 - Lacunes). Multi-cohort data was used in both training and evaluation. Results showed a large variability in performance both across teams and across tasks, with promising results notably for Task 1 - EPVS and Task 2 - Microbleeds and not practically useful results yet for Task 3 - Lacunes. It also highlighted the performance inconsistency across cases that may deter use at an individual level, while still proving useful at a population level.

Computer-aided methods have shown added value for diagnosing and predicting brain disorders and can thus support decision making in clinical care and treatment planning. This chapter will provide insight into the type of methods, their working, their input data - such as cognitive tests, imaging and genetic data - and the types of output they provide. We will focus on specific use cases for diagnosis, i.e. estimating the current 'condition' of the patient, such as early detection and diagnosis of dementia, differential diagnosis of brain tumours, and decision making in stroke. Regarding prediction, i.e. estimation of the future 'condition' of the patient, we will zoom in on use cases such as predicting the disease course in multiple sclerosis and predicting patient outcomes after treatment in brain cancer. Furthermore, based on these use cases, we will assess the current state-of-the-art methodology and highlight current efforts on benchmarking of these methods and the importance of open science therein. Finally, we assess the current clinical impact of computer-aided methods and discuss the required next steps to increase clinical impact.

Machine learning methods exploiting multi-parametric biomarkers, especially based on neuroimaging, have huge potential to improve early diagnosis of dementia and to predict which individuals are at-risk of developing dementia. To benchmark algorithms in the field of machine learning and neuroimaging in dementia and assess their potential for use in clinical practice and clinical trials, seven grand challenges have been organized in the last decade. The seven grand challenges addressed questions related to screening, clinical status estimation, prediction and monitoring in (pre-clinical) dementia. There was little overlap in clinical questions, tasks and performance metrics. Whereas this aids providing insight on a broad range of questions, it also limits the validation of results across challenges. The validation process itself was mostly comparable between challenges, using similar methods for ensuring objective comparison, uncertainty estimation and statistical testing. In general, winning algorithms performed rigorous data preprocessing and combined a wide range of input features. Despite high state-of-the-art performances, most of the methods evaluated by the challenges are not clinically used. To increase impact, future challenges could pay more attention to statistical analysis of which factors relate to higher performance, to clinical questions beyond Alzheimer's disease, and to using testing data beyond the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Grand challenges would be an ideal venue for assessing the generalizability of algorithm performance to unseen data of other cohorts. Key for increasing impact in this way are larger testing data sizes, which could be reached by sharing algorithms rather than data to exploit data that cannot be shared., Comment: 12 pages, 4 tables

Radiomics uses quantitative medical imaging features to predict clinical outcomes. Currently, in a new clinical application, finding the optimal radiomics method out of the wide range of available options has to be done manually through a heuristic trial-and-error process. In this study we propose a framework for automatically optimizing the construction of radiomics workflows per application. To this end, we formulate radiomics as a modular workflow and include a large collection of common algorithms for each component. To optimize the workflow per application, we employ automated machine learning using a random search and ensembling. We evaluate our method in twelve different clinical applications, resulting in the following area under the curves: 1) liposarcoma (0.83); 2) desmoid-type fibromatosis (0.82); 3) primary liver tumors (0.80); 4) gastrointestinal stromal tumors (0.77); 5) colorectal liver metastases (0.61); 6) melanoma metastases (0.45); 7) hepatocellular carcinoma (0.75); 8) mesenteric fibrosis (0.80); 9) prostate cancer (0.72); 10) glioma (0.71); 11) Alzheimer's disease (0.87); and 12) head and neck cancer (0.84). We show that our framework has a competitive performance compared human experts, outperforms a radiomics baseline, and performs similar or superior to Bayesian optimization and more advanced ensemble approaches. Concluding, our method fully automatically optimizes the construction of radiomics workflows, thereby streamlining the search for radiomics biomarkers in new applications. To facilitate reproducibility and future research, we publicly release six datasets, the software implementation of our framework, and the code to reproduce this study., Comment: 33 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables, 2 supplementary figures, 3 supplementary table, submitted to Medical Image Analysis; revision

This work presents a single-step deep-learning framework for longitudinal image analysis, coined Segis-Net. To optimally exploit information available in longitudinal data, this method concurrently learns a multi-class segmentation and nonlinear registration. Segmentation and registration are modeled using a convolutional neural network and optimized simultaneously for their mutual benefit. An objective function that optimizes spatial correspondence for the segmented structures across time-points is proposed. We applied Segis-Net to the analysis of white matter tracts from N=8045 longitudinal brain MRI datasets of 3249 elderly individuals. Segis-Net approach showed a significant increase in registration accuracy, spatio-temporal segmentation consistency, and reproducibility comparing with two multistage pipelines. This also led to a significant reduction in the sample-size that would be required to achieve the same statistical power in analyzing tract-specific measures. Thus, we expect that Segis-Net can serve as a new reliable tool to support longitudinal imaging studies to investigate macro- and microstructural brain changes over time., Comment: To appear in NeuroImage

This work validates the generalizability of MRI-based classification of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and controls (CN) to an external data set and to the task of prediction of conversion to AD in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We used a conventional support vector machine (SVM) and a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) approach based on structural MRI scans that underwent either minimal pre-processing or more extensive pre-processing into modulated gray matter (GM) maps. Classifiers were optimized and evaluated using cross-validation in the ADNI (334 AD, 520 CN). Trained classifiers were subsequently applied to predict conversion to AD in ADNI MCI patients (231 converters, 628 non-converters) and in the independent Health-RI Parelsnoer data set. From this multi-center study representing a tertiary memory clinic population, we included 199 AD patients, 139 participants with subjective cognitive decline, 48 MCI patients converting to dementia, and 91 MCI patients who did not convert to dementia. AD-CN classification based on modulated GM maps resulted in a similar AUC for SVM (0.940) and CNN (0.933). Application to conversion prediction in MCI yielded significantly higher performance for SVM (0.756) than for CNN (0.742). In external validation, performance was slightly decreased. For AD-CN, it again gave similar AUCs for SVM (0.896) and CNN (0.876). For prediction in MCI, performances decreased for both SVM (0.665) and CNN (0.702). Both with SVM and CNN, classification based on modulated GM maps significantly outperformed classification based on minimally processed images. Deep and conventional classifiers performed equally well for AD classification and their performance decreased only slightly when applied to the external cohort. We expect that this work on external validation contributes towards translation of machine learning to clinical practice.

Analysis of longitudinal changes in imaging studies often involves both segmentation of structures of interest and registration of multiple timeframes. The accuracy of such analysis could benefit from a tailored framework that jointly optimizes both tasks to fully exploit the information available in the longitudinal data. Most learning-based registration algorithms, including joint optimization approaches, currently suffer from bias due to selection of a fixed reference frame and only support pairwise transformations. We here propose an analytical framework based on an unbiased learning strategy for group-wise registration that simultaneously registers images to the mean space of a group to obtain consistent segmentations. We evaluate the proposed method on longitudinal analysis of a white matter tract in a brain MRI dataset with 2-3 time-points for 3249 individuals, i.e., 8045 images in total. The reproducibility of the method is evaluated on test-retest data from 97 individuals. The results confirm that the implicit reference image is an average of the input image. In addition, the proposed framework leads to consistent segmentations and significantly lower processing bias than that of a pair-wise fixed-reference approach. This processing bias is even smaller than those obtained when translating segmentations by only one voxel, which can be attributed to subtle numerical instabilities and interpolation. Therefore, we postulate that the proposed mean-space learning strategy could be widely applied to learning-based registration tasks. In addition, this group-wise framework introduces a novel way for learning-based longitudinal studies by direct construction of an unbiased within-subject template and allowing reliable and efficient analysis of spatio-temporal imaging biomarkers., Comment: SPIE Medical Imaging 2021 (oral)

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and is phenotypically heterogeneous. APOE is a triallelic gene which correlates with phenotypic heterogeneity in AD. In this work, we determined the effect of APOE alleles on the disease progression timeline of AD using a discriminative event-based model (DEBM). Since DEBM is a data-driven model, stratification into smaller disease subgroups would lead to more inaccurate models as compared to fitting the model on the entire dataset. Hence our secondary aim is to propose and evaluate novel approaches in which we split the different steps of DEBM into group-aspecific and group-specific parts, where the entire dataset is used to train the group-aspecific parts and only the data from a specific group is used to train the group-specific parts of the DEBM. We performed simulation experiments to benchmark the accuracy of the proposed approaches and to select the optimal approach. Subsequently, the chosen approach was applied to the baseline data of 417 cognitively normal, 235 mild cognitively impaired who convert to AD within 3 years, and 342 AD patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset to gain new insights into the effect of APOE carriership on the disease progression timeline of AD. The presented models could aid understanding of the disease, and in selecting homogeneous group of presymptomatic subjects at-risk of developing symptoms for clinical trials.

Subtle changes in white matter (WM) microstructure have been associated with normal aging and neurodegeneration. To study these associations in more detail, it is highly important that the WM tracts can be accurately and reproducibly characterized from brain diffusion MRI. In addition, to enable analysis of WM tracts in large datasets and in clinical practice it is essential to have methodology that is fast and easy to apply. This work therefore presents a new approach for WM tract segmentation: Neuro4Neuro, that is capable of direct extraction of WM tracts from diffusion tensor images using convolutional neural network (CNN). This 3D end-to-end method is trained to segment 25 WM tracts in aging individuals from a large population-based study (N=9752, 1.5T MRI). The proposed method showed good segmentation performance and high reproducibility, i.e., a high spatial agreement (Cohen's kappa, k = 0.72 ~ 0.83) and a low scan-rescan error in tract-specific diffusion measures (e.g., fractional anisotropy: error = 1% ~ 5%). The reproducibility of the proposed method was higher than that of a tractography-based segmentation algorithm, while being orders of magnitude faster (0.5s to segment one tract). In addition, we showed that the method successfully generalizes to diffusion scans from an external dementia dataset (N=58, 3T MRI). In two proof-of-principle experiments, we associated WM microstructure obtained using the proposed method with age in a normal elderly population, and with disease subtypes in a dementia cohort. In concordance with the literature, results showed a widespread reduction of microstructural organization with aging and substantial group-wise microstructure differences between dementia subtypes. In conclusion, we presented a highly reproducible and fast method for WM tract segmentation that has the potential of being used in large-scale studies and clinical practice., Comment: Preprint to be published in NeuroImage

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials., Comment: Presents final results of the TADPOLE competition. 60 pages, 7 tables, 14 figures

The TADPOLE Challenge compares the performance of algorithms at predicting the future evolution of individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. TADPOLE Challenge participants train their models and algorithms on historical data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. Participants are then required to make forecasts of three key outcomes for ADNI-3 rollover participants: clinical diagnosis, ADAS-Cog 13, and total volume of the ventricles -- which are then compared with future measurements. Strong points of the challenge are that the test data did not exist at the time of forecasting (it was acquired afterwards), and that it focuses on the challenging problem of cohort selection for clinical trials by identifying fast progressors. The submission phase of TADPOLE was open until 15 November 2017; since then data has been acquired until April 2019 from 219 subjects with 223 clinical visits and 150 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans, which was used for the evaluation of the participants' predictions. Thirty-three teams participated with a total of 92 submissions. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For diagnosis prediction, the best forecast (team Frog), which was based on gradient boosting, obtained a multiclass area under the receiver-operating curve (MAUC) of 0.931, while for ventricle prediction the best forecast (team EMC1), which was based on disease progression modelling and spline regression, obtained mean absolute error of 0.41% of total intracranial volume (ICV). For ADAS-Cog 13, no forecast was considerably better than the benchmark mixed effects model (BenchmarkME), provided to participants before the submission deadline. Further analysis can help understand which input features and algorithms are most suitable for Alzheimer's disease prediction and for aiding patient stratification in clinical trials., Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1805.03909

Event-based models (EBM) are a class of disease progression models that can be used to estimate temporal ordering of neuropathological changes from cross-sectional data. Current EBMs only handle scalar biomarkers, such as regional volumes, as inputs. However, regional aggregates are a crude summary of the underlying high-resolution images, potentially limiting the accuracy of EBM. Therefore, we propose a novel method that exploits high-dimensional voxel-wise imaging biomarkers: n-dimensional discriminative EBM (nDEBM). nDEBM is based on an insight that mixture modeling, which is a key element of conventional EBMs, can be replaced by a more scalable semi-supervised support vector machine (SVM) approach. This SVM is used to estimate the degree of abnormality of each region which is then used to obtain subject-specific disease progression patterns. These patterns are in turn used for estimating the mean ordering by fitting a generalized Mallows model. In order to validate the biomarker ordering obtained using nDEBM, we also present a framework for Simulation of Imaging Biomarkers' Temporal Evolution (SImBioTE) that mimics neurodegeneration in brain regions. SImBioTE trains variational auto-encoders (VAE) in different brain regions independently to simulate images at varying stages of disease progression. We also validate nDEBM clinically using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). In both experiments, nDEBM using high-dimensional features gave better performance than state-of-the-art EBM methods using regional volume biomarkers. This suggests that nDEBM is a promising approach for disease progression modeling., Comment: IPMI 2019

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is characterized by a cascade of biomarkers becoming abnormal, the pathophysiology of which is very complex and largely unknown. Event-based modeling (EBM) is a data-driven technique to estimate the sequence in which biomarkers for a disease become abnormal based on cross-sectional data. It can help in understanding the dynamics of disease progression and facilitate early diagnosis and prognosis. In this work we propose a novel discriminative approach to EBM, which is shown to be more accurate than existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. The method first estimates for each subject an approximate ordering of events. Subsequently, the central ordering over all subjects is estimated by fitting a generalized Mallows model to these approximate subject-specific orderings. We also introduce the concept of relative distance between events which helps in creating a disease progression timeline. Subsequently, we propose a method to stage subjects by placing them on the estimated disease progression timeline. We evaluated the proposed method on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data and compared the results with existing state-of-the-art EBM methods. We also performed extensive experiments on synthetic data simulating the progression of Alzheimer's disease. The event orderings obtained on ADNI data seem plausible and are in agreement with the current understanding of progression of AD. The proposed patient staging algorithm performed consistently better than that of state-of-the-art EBM methods. Event orderings obtained in simulation experiments were more accurate than those of other EBM methods and the estimated disease progression timeline was observed to correlate with the timeline of actual disease progression. The results of these experiments are encouraging and suggest that discriminative EBM is a promising approach to disease progression modeling.

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge compares the performance of algorithms at predicting future evolution of individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. TADPOLE Challenge participants train their models and algorithms on historical data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study or any other datasets to which they have access. Participants are then required to make monthly forecasts over a period of 5 years from January 2018, of three key outcomes for ADNI-3 rollover participants: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. These individual forecasts are later compared with the corresponding future measurements in ADNI-3 (obtained after the TADPOLE submission deadline). The first submission phase of TADPOLE was open for prize-eligible submissions between 15 June and 15 November 2017. The submission system remains open via the website: https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org, although since 15 November 2017 submissions are not eligible for the first round of prizes. This paper describes the design of the TADPOLE Challenge., Comment: For more details on TADPOLE Challenge, see https://tadpole.grand-challenge.org/ This paper outlines the design of the TADPOLE Challenge. Paper contains 8 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables