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This paper complements an earlier paper on the June–August Hadley cell by giving a detailed analysis of the December–February Hadley cell as seen in a 30-yr climatology of ERA-Interim data. The focus is on the dynamics of the upper branch of the Hadley cell. There are significant differences between the Hadley cells in the two solsticial seasons. These are particularly associated with the ITCZs staying north of the equator and with mean westerlies in the equatorial regions of the east Pacific and Atlantic in December–February. The latter enables westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity waves to be slow moving in those regions and therefore respond strongly to upstream off-equatorial active convection. However, the main result is that in both seasons it is the regions and times of active convection that predominantly lead to upper-tropospheric outflows and structures that average to give the mean flow toward the winter pole, and the steady and transient fluxes of momentum and vorticity that balance the Coriolis terms. The response to active convection in preferred regions is shown by means of regressions on the data from the climatology and by synoptic examples from one season. Eddies with tropical origin are seen to be important in their own right and also in their interaction with higher-latitude systems. There is support for the relevance of a new conceptual model of the Hadley cell based on the sporadic nature of active tropical convection in time and space.

Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here, we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in climate-change simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a simple theory to explain how temperature variance and skewness changes are generated dynamically from mean temperature gradient changes, and demonstrate the crucial role of regional warming patterns in shaping the distinct response of cold and warm anomalies. We also show that skewness changes must be taken into account, in addition to variance changes, to correctly capture the projected temperature variability response. Our findings suggest that the world may experience not only a warmer mean climate in the coming decades, but also changes in the likelihood of temperature anomalies within that climate. Regional warming patterns control temperature variance and skewness changes in the Northern Hemisphere, suggests analysis of tracked temperature anomalies.

The seminal theory for the Hadley Cells has demonstrated that their existence is necessary for the reduction of tropical temperature gradients to a value such that the implied zonal winds are realisable. At the heart of the theory is the notion of angular momentum conservation in the upper branch of the Hadley Cells. Eddy mixing associated with extra‐tropical systems is invoked to give continuity at the edge of the Hadley Cell and to reduce the subtropical jet by a factor of 3 or more to those observed. In this paper a detailed view is presented of the dynamics of the June–August Hadley Cell, as given by ERA data for the period 1981–2010, with an emphasis on the dynamics of the upper branch. The steady and transient northward fluxes of angular momentum have a very similar structure, both having a maximum on the equator and a reversal in sign near 12°S, with the transient flux merging into that associated with eddies on the winter sub‐tropical jet. In the northward absolute vorticity flux, the Coriolis torque is balanced by both the steady and transient fluxes. The overturning circulations that average to give the Hadley Cell are confined to specific longitudinal regions, as are the steady and transient momentum fluxes. In these regions, both intra‐seasonal and synoptic variations are important. The dominant contributor to the Hadley Cell is from the Indian Ocean and W Pacific regions, and the maxima in OLR variability and meridional wind in these regions have a characteristic structure associated with the Westward‐moving Mixed Rossby‐Gravity wave. Much of the upper tropospheric motion into the winter hemisphere occurs in filaments of air from the summer equatorial region. These filaments can reach the winter sub‐tropical jet, leading to the strengthening of it and of the eddies on it, implying strong tropical‐extratropical interaction.

Atmospheric temperature distributions are often identified with their variance, while the higher-order moments receive less attention. This can be especially misleading for extremes, which are associated with the tails of the probability density functions (PDFs), and thus depend strongly on the higher-order moments. For example, skewness is related to the asymmetry between positive and negative anomalies, while kurtosis is indicative of the “extremity” of the tails. Here we show that for near-surface atmospheric temperature, an approximate linear relationship exists between kurtosis and skewness squared. We present a simple model describing this relationship, where the total PDF is written as the sum of three Gaussians, representing small deviations from the climatological mean together with the larger-amplitude cold and warm temperature anomalies associated with synoptic systems. This model recovers the PDF structure in different regions of the world, as well as its projected response to climate change, giving a simple physical interpretation of the higher-order temperature variability changes. The kurtosis changes are found to be largely predicted by the skewness changes. Building a deeper understanding of what controls the higher-order moments of the temperature variability is crucial for understanding extreme temperature events and how they respond to climate change.

It is well known from modelling studies that surface topography influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation and that several model biases are associated with incorrect representation of topography. The textbook explanation of topographic effects on large-scale circulation appeals to the theoretical relationship between surface forcing and vortex stretching along trajectories in single-layer models. The goal of this study is to design and use a simple diagnostic of the large-scale forcing on the atmosphere when air is passing over topography, directly from atmospheric fields, based on this theoretical relationship. The study examines the interaction of the atmosphere with the North American Cordillera and samples the flow by means of trajectories during Northern Hemisphere winter. We detect a signal of topographic forcing in the atmospheric dataset, which, although much less distinct than in the theoretical relationship, nevertheless exhibits a number of expected properties. Namely, the signal increases with latitude, is usually stronger upslope than downslope, and is enhanced if the flow is more orthogonal to the mountain ridge, for example during periods of positive PNA. Furthermore, a connection is found between an enhanced signal of topographic forcing downslope of the North American Cordillera and periods of more frequent downstream European blocking.

In this paper and Part II a comprehensive picture of the annual cycle of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks is presented and discussed for the first time. It is based on both feature tracking and Eulerian-based diagnostics, applied to vorticity and meridional wind in the upper and lower troposphere. Here, the storm tracks, as diagnosed using both variables and both diagnostic techniques, are presented for the four seasons for each of the two levels. The oceanic storm tracks retain much of their winter mean intensity in spring with only a small change in their latitude. In the summer they are much weaker, particularly in the Pacific and are generally farther poleward. In autumn the intensities are larger again, comparable with those in spring, but the latitude is still nearer to that of summer. However, in the lower troposphere in the eastern ocean basins the tracking metrics show northern and southern tracks that change little with latitude through the year. The Pacific midwinter minimum is seen in upper-troposphere standard deviation diagnostics, but a richer picture is obtained using tracking. In winter there are high intensities over a wide range of latitudes in the central and eastern Pacific, and the western Pacific has high track density but weak intensity. In the lower troposphere all the diagnostics show that the strength of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks are generally quite uniform over the autumn–winter–spring period. There is a close relationship between the upper-tropospheric storm track, particularly that based on vorticity, and tropopause-level winds and temperature gradients. In the lower troposphere, in winter the oceanic storm tracks are in the region of the strong meridional SST gradients, but in summer they are located in regions of small or even reversed SST gradients. However, over North America the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and the upstream portion of the Atlantic storm track stay together throughout the year.

In Part I of this study, the annual cycle of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks was investigated using feature tracking and Eulerian variance-based diagnostics applied to both the vorticity and meridional wind fields. Results were presented and discussed for the four seasons at both upper- (250 hPa) and lower- (850 hPa) tropospheric levels. Here, using the meridional wind diagnostics, the annual cycles of the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks are examined in detail. This is done using monthly and 20° longitudinal sector averages. Many sectors have been considered, but the focus is on sectors equally spaced in the two main oceanic storm tracks situated at their western, central, and eastern regions, with the western ones being mainly over the upstream continents. The annual cycles of the upper- and lower-tropospheric storm tracks in the central and eastern Pacific, as well as in the western and central Atlantic sectors, all have rather similar structures. In amplitude, each sector at both levels has a summer minimum and a relatively uniform strength from October to April, despite the strong winter maxima in the westerly jets. However, high-intensity storms occur over a much wider latitudinal band in winter. The storm track in each sector moves poleward from May to August and returns equatorward from October to December, and there is a marked asymmetry between spring and autumn. There are many differences between the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks, and some of these seem to have their origin in the behavior over the upstream East Asian and North American continents, suggesting the importance of seeding from these regions. The East Asian storm track near 48°N has marked spring and autumn maxima and weak amplitude in winter and summer. The 33°N track is strong only in the first half of the year. In contrast, the eastern North American storm track is well organized throughout the year, around the baroclinicity that moves latitudinally with the seasons. The signatures associated with these features are found to gradually decrease downstream in each case. In particular, there is very little latitudinal movement in the storm track in the eastern Atlantic.

The atmospheric temperature distribution is typically described by its mean and variance, while higher-order moments, such as skewness, have received less attention. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry between the positive and negative tails of the distribution, which has implications for extremes. It was recently shown that near-surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere is positively skewed on the poleward side of the storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. Here we take a dynamical approach to further study what controls the spatial structure of the near-surface temperature distribution in this region. We employ a tracking algorithm to study the formation, intensity, and movement of warm and cold temperature anomalies. We show that warm anomalies are generated on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and propagate poleward, while cold anomalies are generated on the poleward side and propagate equatorward. We further show that while the perturbation growth is mainly achieved through linear meridional advection, it is the nonlinear meridional advection that is responsible for the meridional movement of the temperature anomalies and therefore to the differential skewness. The projected poleward shift and increase of the temperature variance maximum in the Southern Hemisphere under global warming is shown to be composed of a poleward shift and increase in the maximum intensity of both warm and cold anomalies, and a decrease in their meridional displacements. An analytic expression is derived for the nonlinear meridional temperature tendency, which captures the spatial structure of the skewness and its projected changes.

A connection is found between African easterly waves (AEWs), equatorial westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) waves, and equivalent barotropic Rossby waves (RWs) from the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The amplitude and phase of equatorial waves is calculated by projection of broadband-filtered ERA-Interim data onto a horizontal structure basis obtained from equatorial wave theory. Mechanisms enabling interaction between the wave types are identified. AEWs are dominated by a vorticity wave that tilts eastward below the African easterly jet and westward above: the tilt necessary for baroclinic wave growth. However, a strong relationship is identified between amplifying vorticity centers within AEWs and equatorial WMRG waves. Although the waves do not phase lock, positive vorticity centers amplify whenever the cross-equatorial motion of the WMRG wave lies at the same longitude in the upper troposphere (southward flow) and east of this in the lower troposphere (northward flow). Two mechanisms could explain the vorticity amplification: vortex stretching below the upper-tropospheric divergence and ascent associated with latent heating in convection in the lower-tropospheric moist northward flow. In years of strong AEW activity, SH and equatorial upper-tropospheric zonal winds are more easterly. Stronger easterlies have two effects: (i) they Doppler shift WMRG waves so that their period varies little with wavenumber (3–4 days) and (ii) they enable westward-moving RWs to propagate into the tropical waveguide from the SH. The RW phase speeds can match those of WMRG waves, enabling sustained excitation of WMRG. The WMRG waves have an eastward group velocity with wave activity accumulating over Africa and invigorating AEWs at similar frequencies through the vorticity amplification mechanism.

Unprecedented flooding, searing temperatures, and raging fires across Europe, Asia, and North America this summer have created a stark backdrop for this week’s release of the sixth physical science assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These reports, initiated in 1990, arrive about every 7 years at the request of the countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They form the basis for UN discussions and have become a crucial means to take stock of the latest scientific developments. The reports’ future projections about climate change have remained fairly stable over the years and have, sadly, proven quite accurate. So, what does the new report add? Above all, AR6 expresses greater confidence in familiar findings, owing to stronger evidence. A notable example concerns “equilibrium climate sensitivity,” a measure of how much global warming ultimately occurs if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration doubles. Based on improved understanding of cloud processes and climate changes that have already occurred, AR6 concludes that this figure is “likely” (a two-thirds chance or greater) to lie between 2.5° and 4°C—halving the spread of 1.5° to 4.5°C in previous reports. Global temperatures had stalled in the period before the 2013 assessment (AR5) but have since surged, reaching 1.1°C above that of preindustrial times. Atmospheric CO2 has reached concentrations not seen for at least 2 million years, and the new report expresses high confidence that oceans, plants, and soils will become less efficient at absorbing future carbon emissions. As always, uncertainty remains. The latest climate models predict a wider range for climate sensitivity, with projected values implausibly weak in some cases but implausibly strong in others. This disagreement is largely a result of increased complexity in model representations of cloud feedbacks in the midlatitude storm-track regions. AR6 shrewdly deals with this inconsistency by focusing on what happens at a given level of global warming (say, 2°C), separating this from the question of when that warming level would be reached. The report also provides new clarity on aspects like changes in extreme rainfall and drought. Almost all robustly observed regional trends in these events are upward and are projected to continue. One sobering finding is that even if global warming is limited to 2°C, heat events that once occurred twice per century will happen every 3 to 4 years—and will tend to coincide with droughts, compounding the impacts. Much better regional information is provided than in previous reports. However, the lack of adequate data in many regions, including most of Africa, is apparent and should be addressed. The report dives into important new territory by emphasizing “low-probability, high-impact events” that are hard to quantify but unwise to ignore. For example, although the expected range of future sea level is similar to previous predictions, AR6 indicates that rises of 2 m or more by the end of the century cannot be ruled out. Nor can the possibility of abrupt responses and “tipping points” in the climate system. These are stark warnings compared with previous reports. As the authors note, the probabilities of forest dieback, ocean-circulation changes, and other disturbing scenarios increase with global temperature. Although the IPCC reports provide an invaluable resource and periodic wake-up call, they come at a price. This report was written by 234 authors over 3 years, with similar effort invested in two more reports on adaptation and mitigation due next year. The process is arduous: Over 75,000 review comments were individually addressed. The world’s climate modeling centers invest heavily in simulations following common protocols, which is growing steadily more taxing for them. If another assessment is commissioned on schedule, it will arrive not much before 2030. By then, if emissions persist at current rates—that is, even if emissions growth is halted—nearly all the remaining “global carbon budget,” which gives a 50-50 chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C, will have been exhausted. So, this may be the last report that can meaningfully influence policy to keep the climate targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement within reach. AR6 is intended to inform discussions at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) meeting in November. Our children and grandchildren are waiting to see what comes out of it. Published online 10 August 2021; 10.1126/science.abl8490

The UK Met Office Unified Model in the Global Coupled 2 (GC2) configuration has a warm bias of up to almost $$7\,\hbox {K}$$ in the Gulf Stream SSTs in the winter season, which is associated with surface heat flux biases and potentially related to biases in the atmospheric circulation. The role of this SST bias is examined with a focus on the tropospheric response by performing three sensitivity experiments. The SST biases are imposed on the atmosphere-only configuration of the model over a small and medium section of the Gulf Stream, and also the wider North Atlantic. Here we show that the dynamical response to this anomalous Gulf Stream heating (and associated shifting and changing SST gradients) is to enhance vertical motion in the transient eddies over the Gulf Stream, rather than balance the heating with a linear dynamical meridional wind or meridional eddy heat transport. Together with the imposed Gulf Stream heating bias, the response affects the troposphere not only locally but also in remote regions of the Northern Hemisphere via a planetary Rossby wave response. The sensitivity experiments partially reproduce some of the differences in the coupled configuration of the model relative to the atmosphere-only configuration and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis. These biases may have implications for the ability of the model to respond correctly to variability or changes in the Gulf Stream. Better global prediction therefore requires particular focus on reducing any large western boundary current SST biases in these regions of high ocean-atmosphere interaction.

The general 1D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behavior are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity cg and a wave property B. For B positive, the wave energy and the wavenumber vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang occurs where cg goes to zero. However, for B negative, they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analyzed in detail using the theory. For nondispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and an analytic solution is possible. For all the waves considered, B is positive, except for the westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) wave, which can have negative B as well as positive B. Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper-tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However, the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are generally not in accord with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher-latitude wave activity.

The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger, its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal time scales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basinwide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. An underlying barotropic mechanism is proposed to explain this behavior, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking.

Some studies have suggested a recent increase in high-impact persistent circulation regimes in the extratropics. In this brief review paper, we discuss some aspects of this work and also consider more broadly how regimes such as blocking and stationary Rossby wave patterns may be altered under climate change. The amplified Arctic warming is discussed as one of several factors influencing the atmospheric dynamics from the equator to the poles. Some theoretical arguments are given alongside discussion of observational and modelling results. We include consideration of climate model skill and statistical aspects of the problem linking the distribution of climate variables to the extremes.

This paper highlights some theoretical aspects of potential vorticity (PV) and discusses some of the insights the PV perspective has given us. The topics covered include the nature of PV, its controlling role in the symmetric stability of the atmosphere, its inversion to give the flow field, Rossby waves and their coupling to give baroclinic instability, PV and midlatitude weather systems and, finally, insights into tropical motions.

The article focuses on how climate change may impact the management industry after 2014. Topics include the social impact of ocean acidification and coastal flooding, the transformation of the global economy in response to climate change, and the warnings on climate change issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The spatial structure of winter atmospheric blocking and its impact on the surface temperatures are analyzed for the current climate and a strong CO 2 emission scenario over the Euro-Atlantic sector, using four different global circulation models. The models perform very well in describing the spatial pattern of meteorological fields associated with blocking, despite the well-known negative bias associated with the European blocking frequency. While a slight increase in the frequency of the Atlantic blocking is observed for the future climate, the European blocking frequency remains unchanged, with a net eastward shift apparent for the European warm blocking events. Under enhanced CO2 forcing, Atlantic blocking is associated with reduced amplitudes for positive and negative anomalies both in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and in the surface temperature, in particular for the latter. The anomalies associated with the occurrence of the two types of European blocking (those dominated by warm and cold air masses) exhibit changed shapes and locations in both the geopotential height and surface temperature fields, with only the cold cases leading to severe cold weather conditions over Europe and most of the polar region. Moreover, the eastward shift and amplification of the anticyclone associated with the warm events in the future is found to generate strong positive surface temperature anomalies over the entire polar cap. As a whole, the results show a marked increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future. Key Points Models can describe accurately the spatial structure of blocking and its impact Future European blocking is projected to move eastward toward Western Russia Increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

[1] Understanding the nature of air parcels that exhibit ice supersaturation is important because they are the regions of potential formation of both cirrus and aircraft contrails, which affect the radiation balance. Ice-supersaturated air parcels in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic are investigated using Lagrangian trajectories. The trajectory calculations use European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis data for three winter and three summer seasons, resulting in approximately 200,000 trajectories with ice supersaturation for each season. For both summer and winter, the median duration of ice supersaturation along a trajectory is less than 6 h. Five percent of air which becomes ice supersaturated in the troposphere and 23% of air which becomes ice supersaturated in the stratosphere will remain ice supersaturated for at least 24 h. Weighting the ice-supersaturation duration with the observed frequency indicates the likely overall importance of the longer duration ice-supersaturated trajectories. Ice-supersaturated air parcels typically experience a decrease in moisture content while ice supersaturated, suggesting that cirrus clouds eventually form in the majority of such air. A comparison is made between short-lived (less than 24 h) and long-lived (greater than 24 h) ice-supersaturated air flows. For both air flows, ice supersaturation occurs around the northernmost part of the trajectory. Short-lived ice-supersaturated air flows show no significant differences in speed or direction of movement to subsaturated air parcels. However, long-lived ice-supersaturated air occurs in slower-moving air flows, which implies that they are not associated with the fastest moving air through a jet stream.

In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess whether seasonal weather forecasts can skilfully predict the weather-driven component of both winter mean gas demand and the number of extreme gas demand days over the winter period. We find that both the mean and the number of extreme days are predicted with some skill from early November using seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (r > 0.5). Although temperature is most strongly correlated with gas demand, the more skilful prediction of the atmospheric circulation means it is a better predictor of demand. If seasonal weather forecasts are incorporated into pre-winter gas demand planning, they could help improve the security of gas supplies and reduce the impacts associated with extreme demand events.

The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on atmospheric Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection is investigated using the ECMWF Re-Analysis, NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the analysis technique introduced in a previous study. It is found that the phase of ENSO has a substantial impact on Kelvin waves and associated convection over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. El Niño (La Niña) events enhance (suppress) variability of the upper-tropospheric Kelvin wave and the associated convection there, in both extended boreal winter and summer. The mechanism of the impact is through changes in the ENSO-related thermal conditions and the ambient flow. In El Niño years, because of SST increase in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, variability of eastward-moving convection, which is mainly associated with Kelvin waves, intensifies in the region. In addition, owing to the weakening of the equatorial eastern Pacific westerly duct in the upper troposphere in El Niño years, Kelvin waves amplify there. In La Niña years, the opposite occurs. However, the stronger westerly duct in La Niña winters allows more NH extratropical Rossby wave activity to propagate equatorward and force Kelvin waves around 200 hPa, partially offsetting the in situ weakening effect of the stronger westerlies on the waves. In general, in El Niño years Kelvin waves are more convectively and vertically coupled and propagate more upward into the lower stratosphere over the central-eastern Pacific. The ENSO impact in other regions is not clear, although in winter over the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans Kelvin waves and their associated convection are slightly weaker in El Niño than in La Niña years.

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the twentieth to the twenty-first centuries as simulated in 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. The representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) high emission scenario runs are used to represent the twenty-first century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins. It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni index in viewing equatorward cutoff lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. One-dimensional and two-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the midlatitude storm track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the twenty-first century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean twenty-first-century winter poleward shift of high-latitude blocking but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the twenty-first-century model runs is again found. However, in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over eastern Europe and western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high-latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

This manuscript revisits a study of eddy–mean flow interactions in an idealized model of a western boundary current extension jet using properties of the horizontal velocity correlation tensor to diagnose characteristics of average eddy shape, orientation, propagation, and mean flow feedback. These eddy characteristics are then used to provide a new description of the eddy–mean flow interactions observed in terms of different ingredients of the eddy motion. The diagnostics show patterns in average eddy shape, orientation, and propagation that are consistent with the signatures of jet instability in the upstream region and wave radiation in the downstream region. Together they give a feedback onto the mean flow that gives the downstream character of the jet and drives the jet's recirculation gyres. A breakdown of the eddy forcing into contributions from individual terms confirms the expected role of cross-jet gradients in meridional eddy tilt in stabilizing the jet to its barotropic instability; however, it also reveals important roles played by the along-jet evolution of eddy zonal–meridional elongation. It is the mean flow forcing derived from these patterns that acts to strengthen and extend the jet downstream and forces the time-mean recirculation gyres. This understanding of the dependence of mean flow forcing on eddy structural properties suggests that failure to adequately resolve eddy elongation could underlie the weakened jet strength, extent, and changed recirculation structure seen in this idealized model for reduced spatial resolutions. Further, it may suggest new ideas for the parameterization of this forcing.

This paper generalizes and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two-dimensional (2D) latitude–longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave breaking as seen in the potential temperature θ on the dynamical tropopause, particularly the cyclonic or anticyclonic direction of wave breaking (“DB index”) and the relative intensity (“RI index”) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Midlatitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet stream, respectively, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. Warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low-frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Summer rainfall over China has shown decadal variability in the past half century, which has resulted in major north–south shifts in rainfall with important implications for flooding and water resource management. This study has demonstrated how multi-century climate model simulations can be used to explore interdecadal natural variability in the climate system in order to address important questions around recent changes in Chinese summer rainfall, and whether or not anthropogenic climate change is playing a role. Using a 1,000-year simulation of HadCM3 with constant pre-industrial external forcing, the dominant modes of total and interdecadal natural variability in Chinese summer rainfall have been analysed. It has been shown that these modes are comparable in magnitude and in temporal and spatial characteristics to those observed in the latter part of the twentieth century. However, despite 1,000 years of model simulation it has not been possible to demonstrate that these modes are related to similar variations in the global circulation and surface temperature forcing occurring during the latter half of the twentieth century. This may be in part due to model biases. Consequently, recent changes in the spatial distribution of Chinese summer rainfall cannot be attributed solely to natural variability, nor has it been possible to eliminate the likelihood that anthropogenic climate change has been the driving factor. It is more likely that both play a role.

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE) was first proposed by Neale and Hoskins (2000a) as a benchmark for atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) on an idealised water-covered Earth. The experiment and its aims are summarised, and its context within a modelling hierarchy used to evaluate complex models and to provide a link between realistic simulation and conceptual models of atmospheric phenomena is discussed. The simplified aqua-planet configuration bridges a gap in the existing hierarchy. It is designed to expose differences between models and to focus attention on particular phenomena and their response to changes in the underlying distribution of sea surface temperature.

Three emissions inventories have been used with a fully Lagrangian trajectory model to calculate the stratospheric accumulation of water vapour emissions from aircraft, and the resulting radiative forcing. The annual and global-mean radiative forcing due to present-day aviation water vapour emissions has been found to be 0.9 [0.3–1.4] mW m−2. This is around a factor of three smaller than the value given in recent assessments, and the upper bound is much lower than a recently suggested 20 mW m−2 upper bound. This forcing is sensitive to the vertical distribution of emissions, and, to a lesser extent, interannual variability in meteorology. Large differences in the vertical distribution of emissions within the inventories have been identified, which result in the choice of inventory being the largest source of differences in the calculation of the radiative forcing due to the emissions. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere trajectories demonstrates that the assumption of an e-folding time is not always appropriate for stratospheric emissions. A linear model is more representative for emissions that enter the stratosphere far above the tropopause.

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil‐free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase‐out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth‐system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible., Earth's Future, 4 (10), ISSN:2328-4277

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Summary the effects of feedbacks from land-surface forcing on intraseasonal monsoon activity are studied by performing idealized sensitivity experiments with a general circulation model. In agreement with observations, the simulated intraseasonal monsoon activity is mainly described by irregular alternations of active spells and break spells associated with fluctuations of the Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ) between a continental and an oceanic regime. In the model, the spatial characteristic of the intraseasonal monsoon variability is a robust feature which is primarily related to an internal mode of variability of the system, rather than to a response to land-surface feedbacks. Experimentation indicates that the simulation of northward propagating events, related to transitions in the regime, does not require the inclusion of interactive surface hydrological processes. This suggests that the transitions are also mainly related to internal atmospheric dynamics. The temporal characteristics of the fluctuations between the two TCZ regimes, however, are influenced by an interactive surface. the low-frequency intraseasonal monsoon variability is enhanced by hydrological surface feedbacks. When the surface interacts with the atmosphere, the active and break regimes of the monsoon are equally likely. In the absence of surface feedbacks, the probability distribution is modified and the changes depend on the land-surface conditions imposed. the results show that the probability of a monsoon break exceeds that of an active phase when the imposed land-surface conditions are based on climatological values for July. This asymmetry in the probability distribution affects intraseasonal monsoon variability. In turn, the time-mean monsoon circulation, depending as it does on the statistics of the intraseasonal oscillations (such as frequency of occurrence and mean amplitude), is also modified by the surface feedbacks. It follows that the surface conditions play a role in the interannual predictability of the time-mean monsoon.

A synoptic situation termed 'high-latitude blocking' (HLB) is shown to occur frequently in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, and to result in flow anomalies very similar to those associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) in the respective sector. There is a weak but significant link between the occurrence of HLB in the two sectors, with Atlantic HLB tending to lead Pacific HLB by 1-3 days. This link arises from rare events in which both sectors are almost simultaneously affected by a large-scale wave-breaking event which distorts the polar trough over Northern Canada. In several cases the tropospheric wave-breaking occurs in tandem with a large-scale disturbance of the stratospheric polar vortex. There is, therefore, a physical link between the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, but analysis suggests that this does not contribute to determining the pattern of the NAM, as conventionally defined from monthly mean data. However, an alternative version of the NAM, derived directly from daily data, does appear to reflect this physical link. These conflicting results highlight the sensitivity of the NAM to the period over which data are averaged. Copyright c � 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

The variation of stratospheric equatorial wave characteristics with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using ECMWF Re-Analysis and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The impact of the QBO phases on the upward propagation of equatorial waves is found to be consistent and significant. In the easterly phase, there is larger Kelvin wave amplitude but smaller westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave amplitude due to reduced propagation from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere, compared with the westerly phase. Differences in the wave amplitude exist in a deeper layer in summer than in winter, consistent with the seasonality of ambient zonal winds. There is a strong evidence of Kelvin wave amplitude peaking just below the descending westerly phase, suggesting that Kelvin waves act to bring the westerly phase downward. However, the corresponding evidence for WMRG and R1 waves is less clear. In the lower stratosphere there is zonal variation in equatorial waves. This reflects the zonal asymmetry of wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere, the source for the lower-stratospheric waves. In easterly winters the upper-tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves over the eastern Pacific region appear to be somewhat stronger compared to climatology, perhaps because of the accumulation of waves that are unable to propagate upward into the lower stratosphere. Vertical propagation features of these waves are generally consistent with theory and suggest a mixture of Doppler shifting by ambient flows and filtering. Some lower-stratosphere equatorial waves have a connection with preceding tropical convection, especially for Kelvin and R1 waves in winter.

There is a growing interest in using stochastic parametrizations in numerical weather and climate prediction models. Previously, Palmer (2001) outlined the issues that give rise to the need for a stochastic parametrization and the forms such a parametrization could take. In this article a method is presented that uses a comparison between a standard-resolution version and a high-resolution version of the same model to gain information relevant for a stochastic parametrization in that model. A correction term that could be used in a stochastic parametrization is derived from the thermodynamic equations of both models. The origin of the components of this term is discussed. It is found that the component related to unresolved wave-wave interactions is important and can act to compensate for large parametrized tendencies. The correction term is not proportional to the parametrized tendency. Finally, it is explained how the correction term could be used to give information about the shape of the random distribution to be used in a stochastic parametrization. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

During the final stages of the formation of fronts, semi-geostrophic theory predicts kinetic and available potential energy spectra that closely approximate a −8/3 power law as a function of horizontal wavenumber.

Predictability is considered in the context of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem, and the notion is developed that there can be predictive power on all time-scales. On all scales there are phenomena that occur as well as longer time-scales and external conditions that should combine to give some predictability. To what extent this theoretical predictability may actually be realised and, further, to what extent it may be useful is not clear. However the potential should provide a stimulus to, and high profile for, our science and its application for many years. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Building on previous studies of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (examining land–sea contrast, orography, and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealized boundary conditions in the Hadley Centre HadGAM1 atmospheric circulation model. The Himalaya–Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the northeastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favors baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

The technique of relaxation of the tropical atmosphere towards an analysis in a month-season forecast model has previously been successfully exploited in a number of contexts. Here it is shown that when tropical relaxation is used to investigate the possible origin of the observed anomalies in June–July 2007, a simple dynamical model is able to reproduce the observed component of the pattern of anomalies given by an ensemble of ECMWF forecast runs. Following this result, the simple model is used for a range of experiments on time-scales of relaxation, variables and regions relaxed based on a control model run with equatorial heating in a zonal flow. A theory based on scale analysis for the large-scale tropics is used to interpret the results. Typical relationships between scales are determined from the basic equations, and for a specified diabatic heating a chain of deductions for determining the dependent variables is derived. Different critical time-scales are found for tropical relaxation of different dependent variables to be effective. Vorticity has the longest critical time-scale, typically 1.2 days. For temperature and divergence, the time-scales are 10 hours and 3 hours, respectively. However not all the tropical fields, in particular the vertical motion, are reproduced correctly by the model unless divergence is heavily damped. To obtain the correct extra-tropical fields, it is crucial to have the correct rotational flow in the subtropics to initiate the Rossby wave propagation from there. It is sufficient to relax vorticity or temperature on a time-scale comparable or less than their critical time-scales to obtain this. However if the divergent advection of vorticity is important in the Rossby Wave Source then strong relaxation of divergence is required to accurately represent the tropical forcing of Rossby waves.

Daily weather patterns over the North Atlantic are classified into relevant types: typical weather patterns that may characterize the range of climate impacts from aviation in this region, for both summer and winter. The motivation is to provide a set of weather types to facilitate an investigation of climate-optimal aircraft routing of trans-Atlantic flights (minimizing the climate impact on a flight-by-flight basis). Using the New York to London route as an example, the time-optimal route times are shown to vary by over 60 min, to take advantage of strong tailwinds or avoid headwinds, and for eastbound routes latitude correlates well with the latitude of the jet stream. The weather patterns are classified by their similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic teleconnection patterns. For winter, five types are defined; in summer, when there is less variation in jet latitude, only three types are defined. The types can be characterized by the jet strength and position, and therefore the location of the time-optimal routes varies by type. Simple proxies for the climate impact of carbon dioxide, ozone, water vapour and contrails are defined, which depend on parameters such as the route time, latitude and season, the time spent flying in the stratosphere, and the distance over which the air is supersaturated with respect to ice. These proxies are then shown to vary between weather types and between eastbound and westbound routes.

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

A new tropopause definition, based on a flow-dependent blending of the traditional thermal tropopause with one based on potential vorticity, has been developed. The benefits of such a blending algorithm are most apparent in regions with synoptic scale fluctuations between tropical and extratropical airmasses. The properties of the local airmass determine the relative contributions to the location of the blended tropopause, rather than this being determined by a specified function of latitude. Global climatologies of tropopause height, temperature, potential temperature and zonal wind, based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) ERA-Interim data, are presented for the period 1989-2007. Features of the seasonal-mean tropopause are discussed on a global scale, alongside a focus on selected monthly climatologies for the two high latitude regions and the tropical belt. The height differences between climatologies based on ERA-Interim and ERA-40 data are also presented. Key spatial and temporal features seen in earlier climatologies, based mainly on the World Meteorological Organization thermal tropopause definition, are reproduced with the new definition. Tropopause temperatures are consistent with those from earlier climatologies, despite some differences in height in the extratropics.

A new tropopause definition involving a flow-dependent blending of the traditional thermal tropopause with one based on potential vorticity has been developed and applied to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses (ERA), ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Global and regional trends in tropopause characteristics for annual and solsticial seasonal means are presented here, with emphasis on significant results for the newer ERA-Interim data for 1989-2007. The global-mean tropopause is rising at a rate of 47 m decade−1 , with pressure falling at 1.0 hPa decade−1 , and temperature falling at 0.18 K decade−1 . The Antarctic tropopause shows decreasing heights,warming,and increasing westerly winds. The Arctic tropopause also shows a warming, but with decreasing westerly winds. In the tropics the trends are small, but at the latitudes of the sub-tropical jets they are almost double the global values. It is found that these changes are mainly concentrated in the eastern hemisphere. Previous and new metrics for the rate of broadening of the tropics, based on both height and wind, give trends in the range 0.9◦ decade−1 to 2.2◦ decade−1 . For ERA-40 the global height and pressure trends for the period 1979-2001 are similar: 39 m decade−1 and -0.8 hPa decade−1. These values are smaller than those found from the thermal tropopause definition with this data set, as was used in most previous studies.

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

The impact of North Atlantic SST patterns on the storm track is investigated using a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized (aquaplanet) and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in the atmospheric component (HadAM3) of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). This framework enables the mechanisms determining the tropospheric response to North Atlantic SST patterns to be examined, both in isolation and in combination with continental-scale landmasses and orography. In isolation, a “Gulf Stream” SST pattern acts to strengthen the downstream storm track while a “North Atlantic Drift” SST pattern weakens it. These changes are consistent with changes in the extratropical SST gradient and near-surface baroclinicity, and each storm-track response is associated with a consistent change in the tropospheric jet structure. Locally enhanced near-surface horizontal wind convergence is found over the warm side of strengthened SST gradients associated with ascending air and increased precipitation, consistent with previous studies. When the combined SST pattern is introduced into the semirealistic framework (including the “North American” continent and the “Rocky Mountains”), the results suggest that the topographically generated southwest–northeast tilt in the North Atlantic storm track is enhanced. In particular, the Gulf Stream shifts the storm track south in the western Atlantic whereas the strong high-latitude SST gradient in the northeastern Atlantic enhances the storm track there.

A methodology for identifying equatorial waves is used to analyze the multilevel 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data for two different years (1992 and 1993) to investigate the behavior of the equatorial waves under opposite phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A comprehensive view of 3D structures and of zonal and vertical propagation of equatorial Kelvin, westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG), and n = 1 Rossby (R1) waves in different QBO phases is presented. Consistent with expectation based on theory, upward-propagating Kelvin waves occur more frequently during the easterly QBO phase than during the westerly QBO phase. However, the westward-moving WMRG and R1 waves show the opposite behavior. The presence of vertically propagating equatorial waves in the stratosphere also depends on the upper tropospheric winds and tropospheric forcing. Typical propagation parameters such as the zonal wavenumber, zonal phase speed, period, vertical wavelength, and vertical group velocity are found. In general, waves in the lower stratosphere have a smaller zonal wavenumber, shorter period, faster phase speed, and shorter vertical wavelength than those in the upper troposphere. All of the waves in the lower stratosphere show an upward group velocity and downward phase speed. When the phase of the QBO is not favorable for waves to propagate, their phase speed in the lower stratosphere is larger and their period is shorter than in the favorable phase, suggesting Doppler shifting by the ambient flow and a filtering of the slow waves. Tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere also show upward phase speed and downward group velocity, with an indication of their forcing from middle latitudes. Although the waves observed in the lower stratosphere are dominated by “free” waves, there is evidence of some connection with previous tropical convection in the favorable year for the Kelvin waves in the warm water hemisphere and WMRG and R1 waves in the Western Hemisphere, which is suggestive of the importance of convective forcing for the existence of propagating coupled Kelvin waves and midlatitude forcing for the existence of coupled WMRG and R1 waves.

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonalto-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achi...

A theoretical framework is developed for the evolution of baroclinic waves with latent heat release parameterized in terms of vertical velocity. Both wave–conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and large-scale rain approaches are included. The new quasigeostrophic framework covers evolution from general initial conditions on zonal flows with vertical shear, planetary vorticity gradient, a lower boundary, and a tropopause. The formulation is given completely in terms of potential vorticity, enabling the partition of perturbations into Rossby wave components, just as for the dry problem. Both modal and nonmodal development can be understood to a good approximation in terms of propagation and interaction between these components alone. The key change with moisture is that growing normal modes are described in terms of four counterpropagating Rossby wave (CRW) components rather than two. Moist CRWs exist above and below the maximum in latent heating, in addition to the upper- and lower-level CRWs of dry theory. Four classifications of baroclinic development are defined by quantifying the strength of interaction between the four components and identifying the dominant pairs, which range from essentially dry instability to instability in the limit of strong heating far from boundaries, with type-C cyclogenesis and diabatic Rossby waves being intermediate types. General initial conditions must also include passively advected residual PV, as in the dry problem.