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The presence of a low- to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low- to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low- to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics.

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

A new instrumental setup, combining laser ablation (LA) with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), has been investigated for the online radiocarbon ((14)C) analysis of carbonate records. Samples were placed in an in-house designed LA-cell, and CO2 gas was produced by ablation using a 193 nm ArF excimer laser. The (14)C/(12)C abundance ratio of the gas was then analyzed by gas ion source AMS. This configuration allows flexible and time-resolved acquisition of (14)C profiles in contrast to conventional measurements, where only the bulk composition of discrete samples can be obtained. Three different measurement modes, i.e. discrete layer analysis, survey scans, and precision scans, were investigated and compared using a stalagmite sample and, subsequently, applied to terrestrial and marine carbonates. Depending on the measurement mode, a precision of typically 1-5% combined with a spatial resolution of 100 μm can be obtained. Prominent (14)C features, such as the atomic bomb (14)C peak, can be resolved by scanning several cm of a sample within 1 h. Stalagmite, deep-sea coral, and mollusk shell samples yielded comparable signal intensities, which again were comparable to those of conventional gas measurements. The novel LA-AMS setup allowed rapid scans on a variety of sample materials with high spatial resolution.

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Observations show that summer rainfall over large parts of South Asia has declined over the past five to six decades. It remains unclear, however, whether this trend is due to natural variability or increased anthropogenic aerosol loading over South Asia. Here we use stable oxygen isotopes in speleothems from northern India to reconstruct variations in Indian monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia. We find that within the long-term context of our record, the current drying trend is not outside the envelope of monsoon's oscillatory variability, albeit at the lower edge of this variance. Furthermore, the magnitude of multi-decadal oscillatory variability in monsoon rainfall inferred from our proxy record is comparable to model estimates of anthropogenic-forced trends of mean monsoon rainfall in the 21st century under various emission scenarios. Our results suggest that anthropogenic-forced changes in monsoon rainfall will remain difficult to detect against a backdrop of large natural variability.

Rationale: Carbonate clumped isotope thermometry is a powerful new technique increasingly used in many fields in earth science. Recently, it has been shown that clumped isotope measurements can be performed with a Kiel carbonate preparation device and micro-volume analyses, allowing measurements of small (1.5-2 mg) carbonate samples. However, common data correction schemes rely on measurements of gases prepared offline, potentially leading to unrecognized biases in the results., Methods: We propose a new correction scheme for the Kiel device method including: (1) A pressure-sensitive baseline correction (PBL) of the raw beam signals; (2) Transfer of data to the absolute reference frame; (3) Correction for acid fractionation; (4) Correction for average standard offsets; (5) When necessary, correction for Δ47 scale compression based on offsets among standards with different ordering state. The long-term performance of the new scheme was tested with a large set of standard measurements (N = 432) obtained over the course of 15 months., Results: The PBL correction reliably removes composition-dependent artifacts, which are commonly corrected for with gas measurements, and offsets observed in micro-volume measurements when ion beams are imbalanced. We show that the shape of the PBL can vary strongly and needs to be properly characterized. Combined PBL and standard correction resulted in long-term stability with standard deviations in Δ47 of 0.012-0.016 ‰ for the five standards over the whole period, close to the average error of 0.011 ‰ observed for individual measurements consisting of 10 replicate analyses., Conclusions: Our correction scheme eliminates the need for routine gas measurements, allowing for equal treatment of samples and standards with the Kiel device setup. While the PBL and standard data obtained over 15 months reveal variable mass spectrometer behavior, they provide a robust means of correction, yielding reproducible results from small carbonate samples in the long term., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Soils in permafrost regions contain twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, and permafrost has an important influence on the natural and built environment at high northern latitudes. The response of permafrost to warming climate is uncertain and occurs on time scales longer than those assessed by direct observation. We dated periods of speleothem growth in a north-south transect of caves in Siberia to reconstruct the history of permafrost in past climate states. Speleothem growth is restricted to full interglacial conditions in all studied caves. In the northernmost cave (at 60°N), no growth has occurred since Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 11. Growth at that time indicates that global climates only slightly warmer than today are sufficient to thaw extensive regions of permafrost.

Rationale: The measurement of the abundances of minor isotopologues by mass spectrometry requires correction of subtle non-linearities in the mass spectrometer that cause deviations in the relationship between actual and measured isotope ratios. Here we show that negative backgrounds on the Faraday cups recording the minor ion beams are the cause of the observed non-linearities in the measurement of CO(2) isotopologues, and propose a new correction procedure for clumped isotope measurements., Methods: We carefully investigated the cause of non-linearity effects in the measurement of the abundance of (13)C(18)O(16)O, a minor isotopologue of CO(2) with m/z 47, on two different mass spectrometers. By using gases of different composition with close to stochastic and with non-random distribution of isotopes we demonstrate that the apparent dependence of the excess abundance of the isotopologue of m/z 47 on the bulk isotopic composition of CO(2) is due to a background interference that is linearly dependent on the partial pressure of the gas in the source of the mass spectrometer., Conclusions: Background determination with gas flowing into the source of the mass spectrometer is necessary for accurate clumped isotope measurements of CO(2). Background corrections can be performed accurately if the slit width of the m/z 44 Faraday cup significantly exceeds that of the one for m/z 47, using a correlation between m/z 44 signal intensity and the corresponding minimum in m/z 47 background. We propose two new correction schemes that reduce the time-consuming measurement of gases of different bulk isotopic compositions. These findings may also be relevant for the measurement of other rare isotopologues by mass spectrometry., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The role of climate change in the development and demise of Classic Maya civilization (300 to 1000 C.E.) remains controversial because of the absence of well-dated climate and archaeological sequences. We present a precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize. From comparison of this record with historical events compiled from well-dated stone monuments, we propose that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E. This was followed by a drying trend between 660 and 1000 C.E. that triggered the balkanization of polities, increased warfare, and the asynchronous disintegration of polities, followed by population collapse in the context of an extended drought between 1020 and 1100 C.E.