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Plant breeding is one of the key strategies for further enhancement of crop yields; however, effective breeding strategies require phenotypic characterisation of the available germplasm. This study sought to characterise the phenotypic expression of fourteen crop traits related to phenology, plant architecture, and yield in a panel of 40 cultivars selected to represent the phenotypic variability present in Italian rice germplasm during a two-season field experiment. The observed range of phenotypic variation was high for many traits (coefficients of variation ranging from 5.9\% to 45.4\%) including yield (mean: 6.47 t ha\textsuperscript{-1}; CV: 15.4\%; min: 2.19 t ha\textsuperscript{-1}; max: 8.95 t ha\textsuperscript{-1}), and multiple strong associations emerged in all the analysed traits. Cluster analysis extracted three groups of genotypes characterised by alternative yield strategies, i.e. "high-tillering", "early maturing", and "increased source-sink". Our findings highlight that rice yield decrease when one strategy is overemphasised. In contrast, the highest-yielding genotypes have a balanced ratio between sink and source organs, along with a proportional duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. This study depicts the phenotypic variability in Italian rice cultivars and proposes a novel classification based on yield-related traits which could be of use in multiple rice breeding applications., Comment: Published in European Journal of Agronomy

For most biophysical domains, differences in model structures are seldom quantified. Here, we used a taxonomy-based approach to characterise thirteen rice models. Classification keys and binary attributes for each key were identified, and models were categorised into five clusters using a binary similarity measure and the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean. Principal component analysis was performed on model outputs at four sites. Results indicated that (i) differences in structure often resulted in similar predictions and (ii) similar structures can lead to large differences in model outputs. User subjectivity during calibration may have hidden expected relationships between model structure and behaviour. This explanation, if confirmed, highlights the need for shared protocols to reduce the degrees of freedom during calibration, and to limit, in turn, the risk that user subjectivity influences model performance.

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.