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We introduce a policy model coupled with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model to study interactions between policy-making and the dynamics of epidemics. We consider both single-region policies, as well as game-theoretic models involving interactions among several regions, and hierarchical interactions among policy-makers modeled as multi-layer games. We assume that the policy functions are piece-wise constant with a minimum time interval for each policy stage, considering policies cannot change frequently in time or they cannot be easily followed. The optimal policy is obtained by minimizing a cost function which consists of an implementation cost, an impact cost, and, in the case of multi-layer games, a non-compliance cost. We show in a case study of COVID-19 in France that when the cost function is reduced to the impact cost and is parameterized as the final epidemic size, the solution approximates that of the optimal control in Bliman et al, J. Optim. Theory Appl., 189, 2021, for sufficiently small minimum policy time interval. For a larger time interval however the optimal policy is a step down function, quite different from the step up structure typically deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, we present a counterfactual study of how the pandemic would have evolved if herd immunity was reached during the second wave in the county of Los Angeles, California. Lastly, we study a case of three interacting counties with and without a governing state.

Multimodal event argument role labeling (EARL), a task that assigns a role for each event participant (object) in an image is a complex challenge. It requires reasoning over the entire image, the depicted event, and the interactions between various objects participating in the event. Existing models heavily rely on high-quality event-annotated training data to understand the event semantics and structures, and they fail to generalize to new event types and domains. In this paper, we propose GenEARL, a training-free generative framework that harness the power of the modern generative models to understand event task descriptions given image contexts to perform the EARL task. Specifically, GenEARL comprises two stages of generative prompting with a frozen vision-language model (VLM) and a frozen large language model (LLM). First, a generative VLM learns the semantics of the event argument roles and generates event-centric object descriptions based on the image. Subsequently, a LLM is prompted with the generated object descriptions with a predefined template for EARL (i.e., assign an object with an event argument role). We show that GenEARL outperforms the contrastive pretraining (CLIP) baseline by 9.4% and 14.2% accuracy for zero-shot EARL on the M2E2 and SwiG datasets, respectively. In addition, we outperform CLIP-Event by 22% precision on M2E2 dataset. The framework also allows flexible adaptation and generalization to unseen domains., Comment: 20 pages, 15 Figures, 13 figures

Existing approaches on zero-shot event detection usually train models on datasets annotated with known event types, and prompt them with unseen event definitions. These approaches yield sporadic successes, yet generally fall short of expectations. In this work, we aim to improve zero-shot event detection by training models to better follow event definitions. We hypothesize that a diverse set of event types and definitions are the key for models to learn to follow event definitions while existing event extraction datasets focus on annotating many high-quality examples for a few event types. To verify our hypothesis, we construct an automatically generated Diverse Event Definition (DivED) dataset and conduct comparative studies. Our experiments reveal that a large number of event types (200) and diverse event definitions can significantly boost event extraction performance; on the other hand, the performance does not scale with over ten examples per event type. Beyond scaling, we incorporate event ontology information and hard-negative samples during training, further boosting the performance. Based on these findings, we fine-tuned a LLaMA-2-7B model on our DivED dataset, yielding performance that surpasses SOTA large language models like GPT-3.5 across three open benchmarks on zero-shot event detection.

This study explores the dynamic relationship between online discourse, as observed in tweets, and physical hate crimes, focusing on marginalized groups. Leveraging natural language processing techniques, including keyword extraction and topic modeling, we analyze the evolution of online discourse after events affecting these groups. Examining sentiment and polarizing tweets, we establish correlations with hate crimes in Black and LGBTQ+ communities. Using a knowledge graph, we connect tweets, users, topics, and hate crimes, enabling network analyses. Our findings reveal divergent patterns in the evolution of user communities for Black and LGBTQ+ groups, with notable differences in sentiment among influential users. This analysis sheds light on distinctive online discourse patterns and emphasizes the need to monitor hate speech to prevent hate crimes, especially following significant events impacting marginalized communities.

Dynamically planning in complex systems has been explored to improve decision-making in various domains. Professional basketball serves as a compelling example of a dynamic spatio-temporal game, encompassing context-dependent decision-making. However, processing the diverse on-court signals and navigating the vast space of potential actions and outcomes make it difficult for existing approaches to swiftly identify optimal strategies in response to evolving circumstances. In this study, we formulate the sequential decision-making process as a conditional trajectory generation process. Based on the formulation, we introduce PlayBest (PLAYer BEhavior SynThesis), a method to improve player decision-making. We extend the diffusion probabilistic model to learn challenging environmental dynamics from historical National Basketball Association (NBA) player motion tracking data. To incorporate data-driven strategies, an auxiliary value function is trained with corresponding rewards. To accomplish reward-guided trajectory generation, we condition the diffusion model on the value function via classifier-guided sampling. We validate the effectiveness of PlayBest through simulation studies, contrasting the generated trajectories with those employed by professional basketball teams. Our results reveal that the model excels at generating reasonable basketball trajectories that produce efficient plays. Moreover, the synthesized play strategies exhibit an alignment with professional tactics, highlighting the model's capacity to capture the intricate dynamics of basketball games., Comment: CIKM 2024

Information extraction tasks such as event extraction require an in-depth understanding of the output structure and sub-task dependencies. They heavily rely on task-specific training data in the form of (passage, target structure) pairs to obtain reasonable performance. However, obtaining such data through human annotation is costly, leading to a pressing need for low-resource information extraction approaches that require minimal human labeling for real-world applications. Fine-tuning supervised models with synthesized training data would be a generalizable method, but the existing data generation methods either still rely on large-scale ground-truth data or cannot be applied to complicated IE tasks due to their poor performance. To address these challenges, we propose STAR, a data generation method that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to synthesize data instances given limited seed demonstrations, thereby boosting low-resource information extraction performance. Our approach involves generating target structures (Y) followed by generating passages (X), all accomplished with the aid of LLMs. We design fine-grained step-by-step instructions to obtain the initial data instances. We further reduce errors and improve data quality through self-reflection error identification and self-refinement with iterative revision. Our experiments show that the data generated by STAR significantly improve the performance of low-resource event extraction and relation extraction tasks, even surpassing the effectiveness of human-curated data. Human assessment of the data quality shows STAR-generated data exhibits higher passage quality and better align with the task definitions compared with the human-curated data., Comment: To appear at AAAI'24. More info is at https://derek.ma/STAR

The construction and application of knowledge graphs have seen a rapid increase across many disciplines in recent years. Additionally, the problem of uncovering relationships between developments in the COVID-19 pandemic and social media behavior is of great interest to researchers hoping to curb the spread of the disease. In this paper we present a knowledge graph constructed from COVID-19 related tweets in the Los Angeles area, supplemented with federal and state policy announcements and disease spread statistics. By incorporating dates, topics, and events as entities, we construct a knowledge graph that describes the connections between these useful information. We use natural language processing and change point analysis to extract tweet-topic, tweet-date, and event-date relations. Further analysis on the constructed knowledge graph provides insight into how tweets reflect public sentiments towards COVID-19 related topics and how changes in these sentiments correlate with real-world events.

We introduce and study a group formation game in which individuals/agents, driven by self-interest, team up in disjoint groups so as to be in groups of high collective strength. This strength could be group identity, reputation, or protection, and is equally shared by all group members. The group's access to resources, obtained from its members, is traded off against the geographic dispersion of the group: spread-out groups are more costly to maintain. We seek to understand the stability and structure of such partitions. We define two types of equilibria: Acceptance Equilibria (AE), in which no agent will unilaterally change group affiliation, either because the agent cannot increase her utility by switching, or because the intended receiving group is unwilling to accept her (i.e., the utility of existing members would decrease if she joined); and Strong Acceptance Equilibria (SAE), in which no subset of any group will change group affiliations (move together) for the same reasons given above. We show that under natural assumptions on the group utility functions, both an AE and SAE always exist, and that any sequence of improving deviations by agents (resp., subsets of agents in the same group) converges to an AE (resp., SAE). We then characterize the properties of the AEs. We show that an "encroachment" relationship - which groups have members in the territory of other groups - always gives rise to a directed acyclic graph (DAG); conversely, given any DAG, we can construct a game with suitable conditions on the utility function that has an AE with the encroachment structure specified by the given graph., Comment: Accepted in 60th IEEE Conference of Decision and Control 2021

The viral video documenting the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin inspired nation-wide protests that brought national attention to widespread racial injustice and biased policing practices towards black communities in the United States. The use of social media by the Black Lives Matter movement was a primary route for activists to promote the cause and organize over 1,400 protests across the country. Recent research argues that moral discussions on social media are a catalyst for social change. This study sought to shed light on the moral dynamics shaping Black Lives Matter Twitter discussions by analyzing over 40,000 Tweets geo-located to Los Angeles. The goal of this study is to (1) develop computational techniques for mapping the structure of moral discourse on Twitter and (2) understand the connections between social media activism and protest., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

A combination of federal and state-level decision making has shaped the response to COVID-19 in the United States. In this paper we analyze the Twitter narratives around this decision making by applying a dynamic topic model to COVID-19 related tweets by U.S. Governors and Presidential cabinet members. We use a network Hawkes binomial topic model to track evolving sub-topics around risk, testing and treatment. We also construct influence networks amongst government officials using Granger causality inferred from the network Hawkes process.

Public goods games study the incentives of individuals to contribute to a public good and their behaviors in equilibria. In this paper, we examine a specific type of public goods game where players are networked and each has binary actions, and focus on the algorithmic aspects of such games. First, we show that checking the existence of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is NP-complete. We then identify tractable instances based on restrictions of either utility functions or of the underlying graphical structure. In certain cases, we also show that we can efficiently compute a socially optimal Nash equilibrium. Finally, we propose a heuristic approach for computing approximate equilibria in general binary networked public goods games, and experimentally demonstrate its effectiveness.

Body-worn cameras are now commonly used for logging daily life, sports, and law enforcement activities, creating a large volume of archived footage. This paper studies the problem of classifying frames of footage according to the activity of the camera-wearer with an emphasis on application to real-world police body-worn video. Real-world datasets pose a different set of challenges from existing egocentric vision datasets: the amount of footage of different activities is unbalanced, the data contains personally identifiable information, and in practice it is difficult to provide substantial training footage for a supervised approach. We address these challenges by extracting features based exclusively on motion information then segmenting the video footage using a semi-supervised classification algorithm. On publicly available datasets, our method achieves results comparable to, if not better than, supervised and/or deep learning methods using a fraction of the training data. It also shows promising results on real-world police body-worn video.

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of the reconstructed networks.

We present a generic framework for spatio-temporal (ST) data modeling, analysis, and forecasting, with a special focus on data that is sparse in both space and time. Our multi-scaled framework is a seamless coupling of two major components: a self-exciting point process that models the macroscale statistical behaviors of the ST data and a graph structured recurrent neural network (GSRNN) to discover the microscale patterns of the ST data on the inferred graph. This novel deep neural network (DNN) incorporates the real time interactions of the graph nodes to enable more accurate real time forecasting. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated on both crime and traffic forecasting., Comment: 9 pages, 19 figures

Real-time crime forecasting is important. However, accurate prediction of when and where the next crime will happen is difficult. No known physical model provides a reasonable approximation to such a complex system. Historical crime data are sparse in both space and time and the signal of interests is weak. In this work, we first present a proper representation of crime data. We then adapt the spatial temporal residual network on the well represented data to predict the distribution of crime in Los Angeles at the scale of hours in neighborhood-sized parcels. These experiments as well as comparisons with several existing approaches to prediction demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in terms of accuracy. Finally, we present a ternarization technique to address the resource consumption issue for its deployment in real world. This work is an extension of our short conference proceeding paper [Wang et al, Arxiv 1707.03340]., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures

The classification of crime into discrete categories entails a massive loss of information. Crimes emerge out of a complex mix of behaviors and situations, yet most of these details cannot be captured by singular crime type labels. This information loss impacts our ability to not only understand the causes of crime, but also how to develop optimal crime prevention strategies. We apply machine learning methods to short narrative text descriptions accompanying crime records with the goal of discovering ecologically more meaningful latent crime classes. We term these latent classes "crime topics" in reference to text-based topic modeling methods that produce them. We use topic distributions to measure clustering among formally recognized crime types. Crime topics replicate broad distinctions between violent and property crime, but also reveal nuances linked to target characteristics, situational conditions and the tools and methods of attack. Formal crime types are not discrete in topic space. Rather, crime types are distributed across a range of crime topics. Similarly, individual crime topics are distributed across a range of formal crime types. Key ecological groups include identity theft, shoplifting, burglary and theft, car crimes and vandalism, criminal threats and confidence crimes, and violent crimes. Though not a replacement for formal legal crime classifications, crime topics provide a unique window into the heterogeneous causal processes underlying crime., Comment: 47 pages, 4 tables, 7 figures

We propose a latent self-exciting point process model that describes geographically distributed interactions between pairs of entities. In contrast to most existing approaches that assume fully observable interactions, here we consider a scenario where certain interaction events lack information about participants. Instead, this information needs to be inferred from the available observations. We develop an efficient approximate algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization to infer unknown participants in an event given the location and the time of the event. We validate the model on synthetic as well as real-world data, and obtain very promising results on the identity-inference task. We also use our model to predict the timing and participants of future events, and demonstrate that it compares favorably with baseline approaches., Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures (v3); 11 pages, 6 figures (v2); previous version appeared in the 9th Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop, UAI'12

In this article we identify social communities among gang members in the Hollenbeck policing district in Los Angeles, based on sparse observations of a combination of social interactions and geographic locations of the individuals. This information, coming from LAPD Field Interview cards, is used to construct a similarity graph for the individuals. We use spectral clustering to identify clusters in the graph, corresponding to communities in Hollenbeck, and compare these with the LAPD's knowledge of the individuals' gang membership. We discuss different ways of encoding the geosocial information using a graph structure and the influence on the resulting clusterings. Finally we analyze the robustness of this technique with respect to noisy and incomplete data, thereby providing suggestions about the relative importance of quantity versus quality of collected data., Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures (with subfigures)