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111 results on '"Brandt, Patrick T"'

1. The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Author

Hegre, Håvard, Vesco, Paola, Colaresi, Michael, Vestby, Jonas, Timlick, Alexa, Kazmi, Noorain Syed, Becker, Friederike, Binetti, Marco, Bodentien, Tobias, Bohne, Tobias, Brandt, Patrick T., Chadefaux, Thomas, Drauz, Simon, Dworschak, Christoph, D'Orazio, Vito, Fritz, Cornelius, Frank, Hannah, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, Häffner, Sonja, Hofer, Martin, Klebe, Finn L., Macis, Luca, Malaga, Alexandra, Mehrl, Marius, Metternich, Nils W., Mittermaier, Daniel, Muchlinski, David, Mueller, Hannes, Oswald, Christian, Pisano, Paola, Randahl, David, Rauh, Christopher, Rüter, Lotta, Schincariol, Thomas, Seimon, Benjamin, Siletti, Elena, Tagliapietra, Marco, Thornhill, Chandler, Vegelius, Johan, and Walterskirchen, Julian

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Computation, J.4, I.6.3, I.6.4, I.6.5
Abstract

This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023., Comment: Forecasting competition, conflict forecasting, forecasting with uncertainty

Published
2024

2. Leveraging Codebook Knowledge with NLI and ChatGPT for Zero-Shot Political Relation Classification

Author

Hu, Yibo, Parolin, Erick Skorupa, Khan, Latifur, Brandt, Patrick T., Osorio, Javier, and D'Orazio, Vito J.

Subjects
Computer Science - Computation and Language, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Information Retrieval, Computer Science - Machine Learning
Abstract

Is it possible accurately classify political relations within evolving event ontologies without extensive annotations? This study investigates zero-shot learning methods that use expert knowledge from existing annotation codebook, and evaluates the performance of advanced ChatGPT (GPT-3.5/4) and a natural language inference (NLI)-based model called ZSP. ChatGPT uses codebook's labeled summaries as prompts, whereas ZSP breaks down the classification task into context, event mode, and class disambiguation to refine task-specific hypotheses. This decomposition enhances interpretability, efficiency, and adaptability to schema changes. The experiments reveal ChatGPT's strengths and limitations, and crucially show ZSP's outperformance of dictionary-based methods and its competitive edge over some supervised models. These findings affirm the value of ZSP for validating event records and advancing ontology development. Our study underscores the efficacy of leveraging transfer learning and existing domain expertise to enhance research efficiency and scalability., Comment: ACL 2024

Published
2023

3. Extractive Question Answering for Spanish and Arabic Political Text

Author

Alsarra, Sultan, Whitehead, Parker, Alatrush, Naif, Abdeljaber, Luay, Khan, Latifur, Osorio, Javier, Brandt, Patrick T., D’Orazio, Vito, Goos, Gerhard, Series Editor, Hartmanis, Juris, Founding Editor, Bertino, Elisa, Editorial Board Member, Gao, Wen, Editorial Board Member, Steffen, Bernhard, Editorial Board Member, Yung, Moti, Editorial Board Member, Thomson, Robert, editor, Hariharan, Aravind, editor, Renshaw, Scott, editor, Al-khateeb, Samer, editor, Burger, Annetta, editor, Park, Patrick, editor, and Pyke, Aryn, editor

Published
2024
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5. APART: Automatic Political Actor Recommendation in Real-time

Author

Solaimani, Mohiuddin, Salam, Sayeed, Khan, Latifur, Brandt, Patrick T., D’Orazio, Vito, Hutchison, David, Series editor, Kanade, Takeo, Series editor, Kittler, Josef, Series editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., Series editor, Mattern, Friedemann, Series editor, Mitchell, John C., Series editor, Naor, Moni, Series editor, Pandu Rangan, C., Series editor, Steffen, Bernhard, Series editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, Series editor, Tygar, Doug, Series editor, Weikum, Gerhard, Series editor, Lee, Dongwon, editor, Lin, Yu-Ru, editor, Osgood, Nathaniel, editor, and Thomson, Robert, editor

Published
2017
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11. Multi-CoPED

Author

Skorupa Parolin, Erick, primary, Hosseini, MohammadSaleh, additional, Hu, Yibo, additional, Khan, Latifur, additional, Brandt, Patrick T., additional, Osorio, Javier, additional, and D'Orazio, Vito, additional

Published
2022
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27. Political accountability and the room to maneuver: a search for a causal chain

Author

Sattler, Thomas, Freeman, John R., and Brandt, Patrick T.

Subjects
Policy sciences -- Models, Responsibility -- Models, Monetary policy -- Models, Government, International relations, Political science
Abstract

Many studies of the room to maneuver make no provision for popular evaluation of policy. They assert rather than demonstrate popular satisfaction with policy choices and macroeconomic outcomes. The authors present a framework that explicitly models channels for popular preferences to influence policies and outcomes. Results for economic policy making in Britain do not support the room to maneuver thesis. In the authors' sample (1981 to 1997), the British government was responsive to changes in political evaluations, and its policy choices effectively fed back into popular evaluations of government policy. However, this accountability mechanism worked outside the real economy. Shifts in popular evaluations induced changes in policy but had no impact on inflation and economic growth. Government capacity to shape macroeconomic outcomes was limited, and popular influence over economic policy was ineffectual. This form of accountability probably existed because British citizens had difficulty gauging the real impacts of their government's policies. Keywords: accountability; monetary policy; open economy; public opinion

Published
2008

30. Money and rhetoric: Energy sector dynamics in U.S. Senate committee.

Author

Iliev, Iliyan R. and Brandt, Patrick T.

Subjects
*ENERGY industries, *LEGISLATION, *GEOGRAPHY, *MONEY, UNITED States Congressional committees
Abstract

The sequencing of the relationship between campaign contributions and legislative rhetoric is categorized by competing theories as being driven by lags, leads, and contemporaneous effects. We study the committee level dynamics between energy sector donations and legislative rhetoric in the U.S. Senate. Conditioning on party and Senate class, we find evidence for complex interactions that are characterized by a combination of various temporal responses. Individual dynamics — electoral vulnerability, geographical differences and the state-specific importance of the sector — lead to stronger connections between campaign contributions and rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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32. True malaria prevalence in children under five: Bayesian estimation using data of malaria household surveys from three sub-Saharan countries

Author

UCL - SSS/IRSS - Institut de recherche santé et société, Mfueni, Elvire, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, Rosas-Aguirre, Angel, Van Malderen, Carine, Brandt, Patrick T., Ogutu, Bernhards, Snow, Robert W., Tshilolo, Léon, Zurovac, Dejan, Vanderelst, Dieter, Speybroeck, Niko, UCL - SSS/IRSS - Institut de recherche santé et société, Mfueni, Elvire, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, Rosas-Aguirre, Angel, Van Malderen, Carine, Brandt, Patrick T., Ogutu, Bernhards, Snow, Robert W., Tshilolo, Léon, Zurovac, Dejan, Vanderelst, Dieter, and Speybroeck, Niko

Published
2018

33. Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020

Author

Maertens de Noordhout, Charline, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, Haagsma, Juanita A., Havelaar, Arie H, Bertrand, Sophie, Vandenberg, Olivier, Quoilin, Sophie, Brandt, Patrick T, Speybroeck, Niko, LS IRAS VPH MBR (microbiol.risico sch.), dIRAS RA-I&I RA, dFAH I&I, Public Health, Erasmus MC other, LS IRAS VPH MBR (microbiol.risico sch.), dIRAS RA-I&I RA, and dFAH I&I

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Agriculture and Food Sciences, Salmonellosis, Time Factors, Epidemiology, HEPATITIS-B, NETHERLANDS, BIOSURVEILLANCE, DALYs, Global Health, burden, Foodborne Diseases, 0302 clinical medicine, listeriosis, Belgium, Cost of Illness, Dynamic linear model, Campylobacter Infections, Medicine and Health Sciences, 030212 general & internal medicine, RISK, Incidence, Incidence (epidemiology), DISEASE BURDEN, Models, Economic, INFECTIONS, PUBLIC-HEALTH, Salmonella Infections, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Research Article, campylobacteriosis, Uncertainty interval, 030106 microbiology, MODELS, Campylobacteriosis, 03 medical and health sciences, Virology, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, Time series, Disease burden, METAANALYSIS, PATHOGENS, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, prediction, medicine.disease, time series, Biosurveillance, business
Abstract

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8–376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6–310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137–3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178–5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192–226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200–307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

Published
2017

36. True malaria prevalence in children under five: Bayesian estimation using data of malaria household surveys from three sub-Saharan countries

Author

Mfueni, Elvire, primary, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, additional, Rosas-Aguirre, Angel, additional, Van Malderen, Carine, additional, Brandt, Patrick T., additional, Ogutu, Bernhards, additional, Snow, Robert W., additional, Tshilolo, Léon, additional, Zurovac, Dejan, additional, Vanderelst, Dieter, additional, and Speybroeck, Niko, additional

Published
2018
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37. Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020

Author

UCL - SSS/IRSS - Institut de recherche santé et société, Maertens De Noordhout, Charline, Devlessschauwer, Brecht, Haagsma, Juanita A, Havelaar, Arie H, Bertrand, Sophie, Vandenberg, Olivier, Quoillin, Sophie, Brandt, Patrick T, Speybroeck, Niko, UCL - SSS/IRSS - Institut de recherche santé et société, Maertens De Noordhout, Charline, Devlessschauwer, Brecht, Haagsma, Juanita A, Havelaar, Arie H, Bertrand, Sophie, Vandenberg, Olivier, Quoillin, Sophie, Brandt, Patrick T, and Speybroeck, Niko

Abstract

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

Published
2017

38. Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020

Author

LS IRAS VPH MBR (microbiol.risico sch.), dIRAS RA-I&I RA, dFAH I&I, Maertens de Noordhout, Charline, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, Haagsma, Juanita A., Havelaar, Arie H, Bertrand, Sophie, Vandenberg, Olivier, Quoilin, Sophie, Brandt, Patrick T, Speybroeck, Niko, LS IRAS VPH MBR (microbiol.risico sch.), dIRAS RA-I&I RA, dFAH I&I, Maertens de Noordhout, Charline, Devleesschauwer, Brecht, Haagsma, Juanita A., Havelaar, Arie H, Bertrand, Sophie, Vandenberg, Olivier, Quoilin, Sophie, Brandt, Patrick T, and Speybroeck, Niko

Published
2017

42. Near real-time atrocity event coding

Author

Solaimani, Mohiuddin, primary, Salam, Sayeed, additional, Mustafa, Ahmad M., additional, Khan, Latifur, additional, Brandt, Patrick T., additional, and Thuraisingham, Bhavani, additional

Published
2016
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50. Changes and Breaks in Hostage Taking: Understanding Terror Event Dynamics.

Author

Brandt, Patrick T. and Sandler, Todd

Subjects
*HOSTAGE taking, *KIDNAPPING, *OFFENSES against the person, *ABDUCTION, *HOSTAGES
Abstract

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates — successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths — are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are positively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are negatively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2008

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