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Understanding of habitat favourability has wide relevance to the invasion biology of alien species. We studied the seasonal dynamics of the alien ladybird Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) in monoculture Scots pine forest stands in south-west Slovakia, Central Europe, from April 2013 to March 2015. Adult H. axyridis were collected monthly across seven randomly selected pine stands of different ages and canopy closure, from the lower branches of pine trees, and larvae were recorded qualitatively. Adults were recorded all year round, most abundantly in November and least abundantly in February. The relationship between the abundance of H. axyridis and selected forest stand characteristics was modelled using the negative binomial Generalized Additive Model with penalized spline component in month (seasonality) effect, year, canopy closure and age effects and the random effect of forest stand (sample area effect). The abundance of H. axyridis was significantly influenced by the age of stand and seasonality (with month granularity) for both closed and open canopy stands, whereas the effects of canopy closure and sample area were not significant. The bimodal pattern of seasonal dynamics of H. axyridis on Scots pine was common for closed and open canopy stands, with two peaks reflecting the cyclic movement of the species from and to overwintering sites. Harmonia axyridis utilized certain pine stands preferably for foraging during the growing season and certain stands for refuge during winter. The ladybirds were found in highest numbers in the 15 year old closed canopy stand (overwintering site). The occurrence of both adults and larvae in most stands indicated a suitability of Scots pine forest for ladybird breeding. The model of year-round dynamics of H. axyridis has been presented for the first time within the invaded range of the ladybird in Europe.

Inter-rater reliability (IRR), which is a prerequisite of high-quality ratings and assessments, may be affected by contextual variables, such as the rater's or ratee's gender, major, or experience. Identification of such heterogeneity sources in IRR is important for the implementation of policies with the potential to decrease measurement error and to increase IRR by focusing on the most relevant subgroups. In this study, we propose a flexible approach for assessing IRR in cases of heterogeneity due to covariates by directly modeling differences in variance components. We use Bayes factors (BFs) to select the best performing model, and we suggest using Bayesian model averaging as an alternative approach for obtaining IRR and variance component estimates, allowing us to account for model uncertainty. We use inclusion BFs considering the whole model space to provide evidence for or against differences in variance components due to covariates. The proposed method is compared with other Bayesian and frequentist approaches in a simulation study, and we demonstrate its superiority in some situations. Finally, we provide real data examples from grant proposal peer review, demonstrating the usefulness of this method and its flexibility in the generalization of more complex designs.

Abstract Background Infection plays a role in the pathogenesis of many human malignancies. Whether prostate cancer (PCa) - an important health issue in the aging male population in the Western world - belongs to these conditions has been a matter of research since the 1970 s. Persistent serum antibodies are a proof of present or past infection. The aim of this study was to compare serum antibodies against genitourinary infectious agents between PCa patients and controls with benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). We hypothesized that elevated serum antibody levels or higher seroprevalence in PCa patients would suggest an association of genitourinary infection in patient history and elevated PCa risk. Methods A total of 434 males who had undergone open prostate surgery in a single institution were included in the study: 329 PCa patients and 105 controls with BPH. The subjects' serum samples were analysed by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, complement fixation test and indirect immunofluorescence for the presence of antibodies against common genitourinary infectious agents: human papillomavirus (HPV) 6, 11, 16, 18, 31 and 33, herpes simplex virus (HSV) 1 and 2, human cytomegalovirus (CMV), Chlamydia trachomatis, Mycoplasma hominis, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Treponema pallidum. Antibody seroprevalence and mean serum antibody levels were compared between cases and controls. Tumour grade and stage were correlated with serological findings. Results PCa patients were more likely to harbour antibodies against Ureaplasma urealyticum (odds ratio (OR) 2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-4.28). Men with BPH were more often seropositive for HPV 18 and Chlamydia trachomatis (OR 0.23; 95% CI 0.09-0.61 and OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.21-0.99, respectively) and had higher mean serum CMV antibody levels than PCa patients (p = 0.0004). Among PCa patients, antibodies against HPV 6 were associated with a higher Gleason score (p = 0.0305). Conclusions Antibody seropositivity against the analyzed pathogens with the exception of Ureaplasma does not seem to be a risk factor for PCa pathogenesis. The presence or higher levels of serum antibodies against the genitourinary pathogens studied were not consistently associated with PCa. Serostatus was not a predictor of disease stage in the studied population.

BackgroundSeasons affect many social, economic, and biological outcomes, particularly in low-resource settings, and some studies suggest that birth season affects child growth.AimTo study a predictor of stunting that has received limited attention: birth season.Subjects and methodsThis study uses cross-sectional data collected during 2008 in a low-resource society of horticulturists-foragers in the Bolivian Amazon, Tsimane'. It estimates the associations between birth months and height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) for 562 girls and 546 boys separately, from birth until age 11 years or pre-puberty, which in this society occurs ∼13-14 years.ResultsChildren born during the rainy season (February-May) were shorter, while children born during the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season (August-November) were taller, both compared with their age-sex peers born during the rest of the year. The correlations of birth season with HAZ were stronger for boys than for girls. Controlling for birth season, there is some evidence of eventual partial catch-up growth, with the HAZ of girls or boys worsening until ∼ age 4-5 years, but improving thereafter. By age 6 years, many girls and boys had ceased to be stunted, irrespective of birth season.ConclusionThe results suggest that redressing stunting will require attention to conditions in utero, infancy and late childhood.

We analyzed data from 3,546 occurrence records of Fire Salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) from the territory of the Czech Republic where it has a heterogeneous distribution pattern. Its occurrence in terrestrial habitats adjacent to breeding streams is characterized by a mean distance of 103 m, maximum 1,321 m, from the nearest stream. Based on a logistic GLM (generalized linear model) analysis we determined the Fire Salamanders' climatic and habitat associations at landscape scale in the Czech Republic. The main limiting factors for its dispersal include the proximity of small shallow streams in rolling landscapes, the pH of these streams, the presence of broad-leaf or mixed forests, humidity, solar irradiation, and severity of winters. While the absence of suitable breeding habitats is the main limiting factor for their occurrence in more expansive lowlands, factors such as lower temperatures, lower humidity, and the absence of broad-leaf and mixed forests begin to play a role with increasing altitude. Unlike cold temperatures, low amounts of precipitation and higher temperatures do not act as limiters in the Czech Republic. Fire Salamanders respond to the colder climate of higher altitudes with intensified summer activity and the purely bimodal nature of their activity (with spring and autumn peaks) tends to fade at higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between temperature levels and precipitation amounts as explanatory variables for the probability of death due to waterborne and airborne diseases in historical urban space. To date, the literature has not focused on the climatological epidemiology of 19th century Polish urban areas. We used individual mortality data from Poznań parish death registers between 1850 and 1900. Each deceased individual was assigned average monthly temperature values and precipitation amounts in the month of death, LAG1 (1-month-lagged) temperature and LAG1 rainfall, and place of residence. We studied the relationship between weather conditions and mortality using formalized statistical models reflecting the discrete nature of the response data (via multinomial logistic regression). Lagged monthly average temperature levels and lagged monthly average precipitation amounts were better predictors of airborne and waterborne disease mortality than the concurrent (non-lagged) monthly averages. The lagged effects of temperature and precipitation on waterborne and airborne diseases were significant (except for the smooth lagged average monthly temperature effect for airborne diseases). There was also significant spatial heterogeneity (differences among city quarters) in the prevalence of deaths due to waterborne and airborne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An active preference for higher temperatures within a physiological optimum is beneficial for animal movement. For example, ascending temperatures induce an increase in cyprinid fish metabolism and swimming ability. Spring upstream migrations driven by the search for resources may be related to these increases. Conversely, downstream migrations in autumn follow a decrease in temperature. When fish migrations are driven by a search for resources, for example, food availability and reproduction, or to avoid predators, then the temperature effect can be reduced to approximately the threshold temperatures that induce up‐ and/or downstream movement. To test this assumption, we tracked the seasonal migrations of the common bream Abramis brama between a reservoir and its tributary using radio tags with temperature sensors during a 5‐year period. Upstream migrations of the species into the tributary were not motivated by seeking temperatures different from those in the reservoir, that is, fish body temperatures in both environments were comparable across seasons. However, for long‐distance migrations, increasing temperature did support upstream migrations. Temperature did not determine the direction or intensity of short‐distance migration of the species between the reservoir and the tributary. No significant influence of temperature was recorded for the downstream migrations according to the results of the generalised additive mixed model (GAMM1), which related movement distance as the explanatory variable to the signed fish body temperature as the response. The second model (GAMM2) relating fish body temperature as the explanatory variable to the signed movement distance as the response obtained a threshold value of 19.1°C for the upstream migrations and 1.5°C for the downstream migrations of the common bream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]