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The authors are all devoted energy system and sustainability transformation scholars, who collaborate regularly and actively at global and local levels to advance the knowledge space of demand-side solutions and policies. They are members of a growing bottom-up initiative, the Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) network (https://iiasa.ac.at/projects/edits), which builds on various research disciplines to facilitate advances in modeling, data compilation, and analysis of the scope and breadth of the potential contributions of demand-side solutions for climate change mitigation, improved wellbeing for all, and sustainability, complementing supply-side solutions for decarbonizing the energy and material systems.

Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security-related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). We determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient.

Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets.

Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights on how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socio-economic activities and service provisioning supporting societal wellbeing. Herein, we review the recent literature modelling the industrial system for Low Energy and Materials Demand (LEMD) futures, resulting in lowered environmental pressures without relying on negative emissions. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modelling traditions and critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provision. We find large potentials of combined supply- and demand-side measures to reduce current economy-wide material use by -56%, energy use by -40 to -60%, and GHG emissions by -70% to net-zero. We call for strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modelling traditions and demand-side research, to produce more insightful scenarios and discuss research challenges and recommendations.

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

With energy transition setting the ground for innovation and new ways of conducting business, one-stop shops (OSSs) have recently gained momentum in the renovation market. By transforming a complex set of multiple-actor decisions into a single entry and customer-centric service, OSSs have the potential of establishing a bridge between the fragmented demand and supply sides of the traditional renovation value chain. To assess the viability of the OSSs model as a vehicle of accelerating decarbonisation efforts in the European building stock, this paper collects and analyses 63 case studies of OSSs across Europe. The study offers insights into the dynamics of their business model, key benefits and ways forward, by explicitly exploring OSSs’ role in incentivising homeowners to decide to renovate. Our findings show that OSSs can be instrumental in addressing the multitude of barriers that prevent homeowners to renovate. With around 100,000 OSSs projects per year, their activity is expected to substantially contribute to the European renovation targets to rise, subject to favourable policy framework, availability of affordable financing solutions and experience sharing within and across countries. With some OSSs already supporting vulnerable households to renovate, OSSs might be well-placed in the future to contribute to tackle energy poverty by assisting in accessing financing and engaging property owners to renovate.

This report is the second part of a Europe-wide survey and assessment of one-stop shops (OSS) for energy renovation of buildings. Based on the case studies of 63 OSS in the EU, we find that the approach has a potential to cover 5-6 of the renovation volume of 35 million buildings in 2030 set out by the Renovation Wave Strategy , at low social costs, integrating private investments with client-friendly methods. The current level of activity of the European OSS market is estimated to be around 100 000 projects per year. The OSS can bridge the gap between a fragmented residential building sector, with a large heterogeneous set of households, and the construction supply side. They can help increase the actual renovation rate by supporting potential clients through the various steps of the decision-making process. Their success lies in part with their locally embedded focus, engagement with interested but not yet committed energy users/asset owners and ability to form strong relationships with clients. They can support the renovation journey from start to finish and can facilitate access to financing, occasionally offering better rates. While our analysis identifies several structural, legislative, financial, and information measures with a positive impact on OSS-enabled renovation projects, it is possible to enhance their contribution by reviewing specific policies that support or hinder their success. Although not typical of OSS in general, but with proper incentives, they can improve the average renovation depth in terms of energy performance level by adopting a holistic approach and, at the same time, they can reach out to vulnerable populations, such as tenants of social houses, thus contributing to the alleviation of energy poverty. Finally, OSS can contribute to the enhancement of communities and neighbourhoods. They help current tenants to improve their living conditions and thus stay in the area.

This repository contains data for the main text figures plus some supplementary figures in the article:\textlessbr\textgreater Kikstra et al 2021 Nat. Energy. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8 This dataset should be cited as: Kikstra et al. (2021). Data for climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19 related energy demand changes. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5211169 In order to reproduce the figures, one needs to use the script that is available on GitHub at:\textlessbr\textgreater https://github.com/iiasa/covid-energy-demand-scenarios The most accessible way of exploring the scenario data behind this article would be to go to https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/workspaces/60.\textlessbr\textgreater This goes to a web tool hosted by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) which provides access to a database of these and more variables of interest, defined for each scenario on the detail of MESSAGE regions, with a few example workspaces available within the ENGAGE Scenario Explorer.\textlessbr\textgreater The Scenario Explorer is a versatile open access tool to browse, visualize and download data and results. Users can freely create a private workspace where customized plots can be saved and shared.\textlessbr\textgreater For tutorials on how to use the Scenario Explorer, please visit https://software.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ixmp-server/tutorials.html. The scenarios that were used for the IPCC Special Report on 1.5C warming (SR1.5) have been made available at https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here, we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the demand-side effect on final energy and GHG emissions. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 12 to 40 EJ/yr by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 28 to 53 GtCO2, depending on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with low energy demand practices - embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption, and production – reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5°C consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by 2.1 trillion USD, and lessens pressure on the upscaling of renewable energy technologies.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought a halt to life as we knew it in our cities. It has also put a magnifying glass on existing inequalities and poverty. While everyone has been facing the pandemic's risks, the lived challenges of the lockdowns have been felt most acutely by the poor, the vulnerable, those in the informal sector, and without savings and safety nets. Here, we identify three ways that the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have exacerbated urban inequalities and how subsequent recovery measures and policy responses have tried to redress these. First, lockdowns amplified urban energy poverty, while recovery measures and policies offer an opportunity to address entrenched inequalities in shelter and energy access. Second, preexisting digital divides even within well-connected cities have translated into inequalities in preparedness for living through the lockdown, but digitalization strategies can enhance equity in access to e-services, online work and education for all in the future. Third, slum dwellers in the world's cities have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic and lockdown measures, but the spotlight on them provides further impetus for slum upgradation efforts that through improved access to infrastructure can improve living conditions and provide more secure livelihoods.

The Paris Agreement goals require net‐zero CO2 emissions by mid‐century. The European Commission in its recent proposal for climate and energy strategy for 2050 indicated the need for more intensified actions to substantially improve the energy performances of buildings. With the rate of new construction in Europe, the challenge is to increase both the pace and depth of building energy renovations. Several barriers inhibit the wide uptake of comprehensive energy renovations, including the inability or inertia to finance upfront costs of energy renovations. Despite various policies implemented to address some of these barriers, current investments in buildings remain at suboptimal levels. The paper reviews current financing practices for energy renovations and investigates some innovative instruments with a special focus on their applicability to residential buildings. In addition to “traditional” financial schemes such as subsidies, tax incentives, and loans, the paper assesses innovative financing schemes: On property tax and on‐bill financing, energy efficiency mortgages, and energy efficiency feed‐in tariffs. The paper also investigates the concept of one‐stop shops for building renovations and crowdfunding. The paper offers an assessment of the characteristics, benefits, and challenges of each analyzed financing instrument and provides policy recommendations for their successful implementation. In general, as financing instruments involve different stakeholders and due to complex nature of the sector, there is no single solution to accelerate energy renovation investment in buildings. The emerging financial models offer the potential to address the long‐standing barriers to investment in energy efficiency.

The global lockdown due to COVID-19 has reduced industrial activities, construction, tourism, material demand, and mobility. This has impacted many sectors of the global economy including the energy sector which has witnessed movements both towards and away from sustainability. Key trends observed include a reduced demand for both energy and energy services, zero to negative oil prices, disruptions in the supply chain of energy technologies and materials – specially for renewable energy, and a decline in investments. This has led to welcome reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, revealed opportunities for new and digitalized business models and responsible lifestyle choices, but all these will be short lived if we go back to business as usual. Such behavioral and societal changes have revealed the potential for structural change and transitions in demand for energy services towards sustainability. An interesting revelation is that the positive fallouts for sustainable development are all related to what are commonly perceived to be difficult-to-overcome barriers such as lifestyle choices, behavior, and business models. Whereas the negative fallouts for sustainable development are the relatively easier to address issues of reinstating supply chains and kick-starting/accelerating investments in sustainable energy. As the world looks to recover from the economic and jobs related consequences of the pandemic, all stakeholders have a responsibility to ensure that we create a system of incentives to reward sustainable behavior while penalizing those actions that would take us back to the path of unsustainability. For the energy sector, this would translate not only to the choices that influence the supply of energy, including evaluating the balance of centralized and decentralized energy options, but also the choices that would impact the demand for energy itself! Re-examining these business models from the point of view of contributions to economic gro

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.