Search

Responsible for one in eight tonnes of national CO₂ emissions, the passenger car sector is pivotal to delivering on UK climate change commitments to avoiding warming of more than 2°C. This thesis provides a clear and quantitative framing of emissions reduction at the sectoral level, by disaggregating global cumulative emissions budgets and pathways associated with a range of probabilities of exceeding 2°C. The relatively low level of abatement currently planned for the UK car sector, it is argued, needs to be significantly increased for the following reasons: (i) a scientific basis in cumulative emissions for sectoral mitigation makes carbon budgets, rather than end point targets (e.g. 2050), of the first importance; (ii) the currently high probability (63%) of exceeding 2°C underpinning the current UK carbon budgets is inconsistent with the UK government’s commitment to avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’; (iii) short-term emissions growth in industrialising countries considerably reduces remaining emissions space for industrialised countries; (iv) very limited scope exists for any large sector to cut emissions by less than the national mean rate of decarbonisation at higher rates of mitigation (around 10% p.a. by the 2020s). The consequences for emissions space in other sectors if international aviation and shipping mitigate less than the mean are quantified. For UK car sector emissions to remain consistent with a low probability of exceeding 2°C while observing these limitations, this analysis finds that planned sectoral mitigation over the coming decade needs to be increased fourfold. Means to address this expected abatement shortfall using readily available technology are investigated using a fleet emissions model to compare the effect on cumulative emissions of changes in a range of fleet parameters (including mean new car bulk emissions factors, vehicle age-proportionate annual distance travelled, and rates of fleet growth and turnover). Pushing existing car technology to the limit of expected short term efficiency gains is found to be insufficient to deliver a pathway with better than 56% probability of exceeding 2°C. Without reduction in aggregate demand for vehicle kilometres in the short term, lower probabilities of 2°C are placed beyond reach. The possibility of rapid step changes in levels of per capita car use is explored in qualitative interviews using narrative storyline scenarios. A range of coercive and voluntary interventions is considered in relation to their potential to overcome the structural and behavioural constraints to rapid transformation of personal travel.