1. A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.
- Author
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Cui, Ryna, Hultman, Nathan, Cui, Diyang, McJeon, Haewon, Yu, Sha, Edwards, Morgan, Sen, Arijit, Song, Kaihui, Bowman, Christina, Clarke, Leon, Kang, Junjie, Lou, Jiehong, Yang, Fuqiang, Yuan, Jiahai, Zhang, Weirong, and Zhu, Mengye
- Abstract
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting Chinas 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
- Published
- 2021