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To gain insight into the mechanisms behind machine learning methods, it is crucial to establish connections among the features describing data points. However, these correlations often exhibit a high-dimensional and strongly nonlinear nature, which makes them challenging to detect using standard methods. This paper exploits the entanglement between intrinsic dimensionality and correlation to propose a metric that quantifies the (potentially nonlinear) correlation between high-dimensional manifolds. We first validate our method on synthetic data in controlled environments, showcasing its advantages and drawbacks compared to existing techniques. Subsequently, we extend our analysis to large-scale applications in neural network representations. Specifically, we focus on latent representations of multimodal data, uncovering clear correlations between paired visual and textual embeddings, whereas existing methods struggle significantly in detecting similarity. Our results indicate the presence of highly nonlinear correlation patterns between latent manifolds.

The increase of legislative concerns towards the usage of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has recently led to a series of regulations striving for a more transparent, trustworthy and accountable AI. Along with these proposals, the field of Explainable AI (XAI) has seen a rapid growth but the usage of its techniques has at times led to unexpected results. The robustness of the approaches is, in fact, a key property often overlooked: it is necessary to evaluate the stability of an explanation (to random and adversarial perturbations) to ensure that the results are trustable. To this end, we propose a test to evaluate the robustness to non-adversarial perturbations and an ensemble approach to analyse more in depth the robustness of XAI methods applied to neural networks and tabular datasets. We will show how leveraging manifold hypothesis and ensemble approaches can be beneficial to an in-depth analysis of the robustness., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures

This paper presents an artificial intelligence driven methodology to reduce the bottleneck often encountered in the analog ICs layout phase. We frame the floorplanning problem as a Markov Decision Process and leverage reinforcement learning for automatic placement generation under established topological constraints. Consequently, we introduce Steiner tree-based methods for the global routing step and generate guiding paths to be used to connect every circuit block. Finally, by integrating these solutions into a procedural generation framework, we present a unified pipeline that bridges the divide between circuit design and verification steps. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy in generating complete layouts, eventually reducing runtimes to 1.5% compared to manual efforts., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted by SMACD 2024 conference

Integrating symbolic knowledge and data-driven learning algorithms is a longstanding challenge in Artificial Intelligence. Despite the recognized importance of this task, a notable gap exists due to the discreteness of symbolic representations and the continuous nature of machine-learning computations. One of the desired bridges between these two worlds would be to define semantically grounded vector representation (feature embedding) of logic formulae, thus enabling to perform continuous learning and optimization in the semantic space of formulae. We tackle this goal for knowledge expressed in Signal Temporal Logic (STL) and devise a method to compute continuous embeddings of formulae with several desirable properties: the embedding (i) is finite-dimensional, (ii) faithfully reflects the semantics of the formulae, (iii) does not require any learning but instead is defined from basic principles, (iv) is interpretable. Another significant contribution lies in demonstrating the efficacy of the approach in two tasks: learning model checking, where we predict the probability of requirements being satisfied in stochastic processes; and integrating the embeddings into a neuro-symbolic framework, to constrain the output of a deep-learning generative model to comply to a given logical specification.

The integration of cyber-physical systems (CPS) into everyday life raises the critical necessity of ensuring their safety and reliability. An important step in this direction is requirement mining, i.e. inferring formally specified system properties from observed behaviors, in order to discover knowledge about the system. Signal Temporal Logic (STL) offers a concise yet expressive language for specifying requirements, particularly suited for CPS, where behaviors are typically represented as time series data. This work addresses the task of learning STL requirements from observed behaviors in a data-driven manner, focusing on binary classification, i.e. on inferring properties of the system which are able to discriminate between regular and anomalous behaviour, and that can be used both as classifiers and as monitors of the compliance of the CPS to desirable specifications. We present a novel framework that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and Information Retrieval (IR) techniques to simultaneously learn both the structure and the parameters of STL formulae, without restrictions on the STL grammar. Specifically, we propose a framework that leverages a dense vector database containing semantic-preserving continuous representations of millions of formulae, queried for facilitating the mining of requirements inside a BO loop. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in several signal classification applications, showing its ability to extract interpretable insights from system executions and advance the state-of-the-art in requirement mining for CPS.

Deep learning methods for time series have already reached excellent performances in both prediction and classification tasks, including anomaly detection. However, the complexity inherent in Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) creates a challenge when it comes to explainability methods. To overcome this inherent lack of interpretability, we propose ECATS, a concept-based neuro-symbolic architecture where concepts are represented as Signal Temporal Logic (STL) formulae. Leveraging kernel-based methods for STL, concept embeddings are learnt in an unsupervised manner through a cross-attention mechanism. The network makes class predictions through these concept embeddings, allowing for a meaningful explanation to be naturally extracted for each input. Our preliminary experiments with a simple CPS-based dataset show that our model is able to achieve great classification performance while ensuring local interpretability., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, accepted to 18th International Conference on Neural-Symbolic Learning and Reasoning (NeSy 2024)

This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would offer a precise solution to the PM problem, it is generally computationally expensive. To address this scalability issue, several lightweight approaches based on machine learning have recently been proposed. These approaches work by learning an approximate yet efficient surrogate (deep learning) model of the expensive model checker. A key challenge remains to ensure reliable predictions, especially in safety-critical applications. We review our recent work on predictive monitoring, one of the first to propose learning-based approximations for CPS verification of temporal logic specifications and the first in this context to apply conformal prediction (CP) for rigorous uncertainty quantification. These CP-based uncertainty estimators offer statistical guarantees regarding the generalization error of the learning model, and they can be used to determine unreliable predictions that should be rejected. In this tutorial, we present a general and comprehensive framework summarizing our approach to the predictive monitoring of CPSs, examining in detail several variants determined by three main dimensions: system dynamics (deterministic, non-deterministic, stochastic), state observability, and semantics of requirements' satisfaction (Boolean or quantitative).

Computing the posterior distribution of a probabilistic program is a hard task for which no one-fit-for-all solution exists. We propose Gaussian Semantics, which approximates the exact probabilistic semantics of a bounded program by means of Gaussian mixtures. It is parametrized by a map that associates each program location with the moment order to be matched in the approximation. We provide two main contributions. The first is a universal approximation theorem stating that, under mild conditions, Gaussian Semantics can approximate the exact semantics arbitrarily closely. The second is an approximation that matches up to second-order moments analytically in face of the generally difficult problem of matching moments of Gaussian mixtures with arbitrary moment order. We test our second-order Gaussian approximation (SOGA) on a number of case studies from the literature. We show that it can provide accurate estimates in models not supported by other approximation methods or when exact symbolic techniques fail because of complex expressions or non-simplified integrals. On two notable classes of problems, namely collaborative filtering and programs involving mixtures of continuous and discrete distributions, we show that SOGA significantly outperforms alternative techniques in terms of accuracy and computational time.

Score-based and diffusion models have emerged as effective approaches for both conditional and unconditional generation. Still conditional generation is based on either a specific training of a conditional model or classifier guidance, which requires training a noise-dependent classifier, even when the classifier for uncorrupted data is given. We propose an approach to sample from unconditional score-based generative models enforcing arbitrary logical constraints, without any additional training. Firstly, we show how to manipulate the learned score in order to sample from an un-normalized distribution conditional on a user-defined constraint. Then, we define a flexible and numerically stable neuro-symbolic framework for encoding soft logical constraints. Combining these two ingredients we obtain a general, but approximate, conditional sampling algorithm. We further developed effective heuristics aimed at improving the approximation. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our approach for various types of constraints and data: tabular data, images and time series.

In this work, we propose a novel adversarial defence mechanism for image classification - CARSO - blending the paradigms of adversarial training and adversarial purification in a synergistic robustness-enhancing way. The method builds upon an adversarially-trained classifier, and learns to map its internal representation associated with a potentially perturbed input onto a distribution of tentative clean reconstructions. Multiple samples from such distribution are classified by the same adversarially-trained model, and an aggregation of its outputs finally constitutes the robust prediction of interest. Experimental evaluation by a well-established benchmark of strong adaptive attacks, across different image datasets, shows that CARSO is able to defend itself against adaptive end-to-end white-box attacks devised for stochastic defences. Paying a modest clean accuracy toll, our method improves by a significant margin the state-of-the-art for CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and TinyImageNet-200 $\ell_\infty$ robust classification accuracy against AutoAttack. Code, and instructions to obtain pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/emaballarin/CARSO ., Comment: 21 pages, 1 figure, 15 tables

Despite their impressive performance in classification tasks, neural networks are known to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, subtle perturbations of the input data designed to deceive the model. In this work, we investigate the relation between these perturbations and the implicit bias of neural networks trained with gradient-based algorithms. To this end, we analyse the network's implicit bias through the lens of the Fourier transform. Specifically, we identify the minimal and most critical frequencies necessary for accurate classification or misclassification respectively for each input image and its adversarially perturbed version, and uncover the correlation among those. To this end, among other methods, we use a newly introduced technique capable of detecting non-linear correlations between high-dimensional datasets. Our results provide empirical evidence that the network bias in Fourier space and the target frequencies of adversarial attacks are highly correlated and suggest new potential strategies for adversarial defence.

Logic is the main formal language to perform automated reasoning, and it is further a human-interpretable language, at least for small formulae. Learning and optimising logic requirements and rules has always been an important problem in Artificial Intelligence. State of the art Machine Learning (ML) approaches are mostly based on gradient descent optimisation in continuous spaces, while learning logic is framed in the discrete syntactic space of formulae. Using continuous optimisation to learn logic properties is a challenging problem, requiring to embed formulae in a continuous space in a meaningful way, i.e. preserving the semantics. Current methods are able to construct effective semantic-preserving embeddings via kernel methods (for linear temporal logic), but the map they define is not invertible. In this work we address this problem, learning how to invert such an embedding leveraging deep architectures based on the Graph Variational Autoencoder framework. We propose a novel model specifically designed for this setting, justifying our design choices through an extensive experimental evaluation. Reported results in the context of propositional logic are promising, and several challenges regarding learning invertible embeddings of formulae are highlighted and addressed.

We consider the problem of predictive monitoring (PM), i.e., predicting at runtime the satisfaction of a desired property from the current system's state. Due to its relevance for runtime safety assurance and online control, PM methods need to be efficient to enable timely interventions against predicted violations, while providing correctness guarantees. We introduce \textit{quantitative predictive monitoring (QPM)}, the first PM method to support stochastic processes and rich specifications given in Signal Temporal Logic (STL). Unlike most of the existing PM techniques that predict whether or not some property $\phi$ is satisfied, QPM provides a quantitative measure of satisfaction by predicting the quantitative (aka robust) STL semantics of $\phi$. QPM derives prediction intervals that are highly efficient to compute and with probabilistic guarantees, in that the intervals cover with arbitrary probability the STL robustness values relative to the stochastic evolution of the system. To do so, we take a machine-learning approach and leverage recent advances in conformal inference for quantile regression, thereby avoiding expensive Monte-Carlo simulations at runtime to estimate the intervals. We also show how our monitors can be combined in a compositional manner to handle composite formulas, without retraining the predictors nor sacrificing the guarantees. We demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of QPM over a benchmark of four discrete-time stochastic processes with varying degrees of complexity.

Vulnerability to adversarial attacks is one of the principal hurdles to the adoption of deep learning in safety-critical applications. Despite significant efforts, both practical and theoretical, training deep learning models robust to adversarial attacks is still an open problem. In this paper, we analyse the geometry of adversarial attacks in the large-data, overparameterized limit for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We show that, in the limit, vulnerability to gradient-based attacks arises as a result of degeneracy in the data distribution, i.e., when the data lies on a lower-dimensional submanifold of the ambient space. As a direct consequence, we demonstrate that in this limit BNN posteriors are robust to gradient-based adversarial attacks. Crucially, we prove that the expected gradient of the loss with respect to the BNN posterior distribution is vanishing, even when each neural network sampled from the posterior is vulnerable to gradient-based attacks. Experimental results on the MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and half moons datasets, representing the finite data regime, with BNNs trained with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Variational Inference, support this line of arguments, showing that BNNs can display both high accuracy on clean data and robustness to both gradient-based and gradient-free based adversarial attacks., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2002.04359

Parametric verification of linear temporal properties for stochastic models can be expressed as computing the satisfaction probability of a certain property as a function of the parameters of the model. Smoothed model checking (smMC) aims at inferring the satisfaction function over the entire parameter space from a limited set of observations obtained via simulation. As observations are costly and noisy, smMC is framed as a Bayesian inference problem so that the estimates have an additional quantification of the uncertainty. In smMC the authors use Gaussian Processes (GP), inferred by means of the Expectation Propagation algorithm. This approach provides accurate reconstructions with statistically sound quantification of the uncertainty. However, it inherits the well-known scalability issues of GP. In this paper, we exploit recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to push this limitation forward, making Bayesian inference of smMC scalable to larger datasets and enabling its application to models with high dimensional parameter spaces. We propose Stochastic Variational Smoothed Model Checking (SV-smMC), a solution that exploits stochastic variational inference (SVI) to approximate the posterior distribution of the smMC problem. The strength and flexibility of SVI make SV-smMC applicable to two alternative probabilistic models: Gaussian Processes (GP) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). The core ingredient of SVI is a stochastic gradient-based optimization that makes inference easily parallelizable and that enables GPU acceleration. In this paper, we compare the performances of smMC against those of SV-smMC by looking at the scalability, the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the reconstructed satisfaction function.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been recently leveraged to solve several logical reasoning tasks. Nevertheless, counting problems such as propositional model counting (#SAT) are still mostly approached with traditional solvers. Here we tackle this gap by presenting an architecture based on the GNN framework for belief propagation (BP) of Kuch et al., extended with self-attentive GNN and trained to approximately solve the #SAT problem. We ran a thorough experimental investigation, showing that our model, trained on a small set of random Boolean formulae, is able to scale effectively to much larger problem sizes, with comparable or better performances of state of the art approximate solvers. Moreover, we show that it can be efficiently fine-tuned to provide good generalization results on different formulae distributions, such as those coming from SAT-encoded combinatorial problems.

We introduce a similarity function on formulae of signal temporal logic (STL). It comes in the form of a kernel function, well known in machine learning as a conceptually and computationally efficient tool. The corresponding kernel trick allows us to circumvent the complicated process of feature extraction, i.e. the (typically manual) effort to identify the decisive properties of formulae so that learning can be applied. We demonstrate this consequence and its advantages on the task of predicting (quantitative) satisfaction of STL formulae on stochastic processes: Using our kernel and the kernel trick, we learn (i) computationally efficiently (ii) a practically precise predictor of satisfaction, (iii) avoiding the difficult task of finding a way to explicitly turn formulae into vectors of numbers in a sensible way. We back the high precision we have achieved in the experiments by a theoretically sound PAC guarantee, ensuring our procedure efficiently delivers a close-to-optimal predictor.

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates based on the statistical moments of the process to reduce the estimators' variances. We develop an algorithm that selects an efficient subset of infinitely many control variates. To this end, the algorithm uses resampling and a redundancy-aware greedy selection. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach in several case studies., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1905.00854

We consider the problem of predictive monitoring (PM), i.e., predicting at runtime future violations of a system from the current state. We work under the most realistic settings where only partial and noisy observations of the state are available at runtime. Such settings directly affect the accuracy and reliability of the reachability predictions, jeopardizing the safety of the system. In this work, we present a learning-based method for PM that produces accurate and reliable reachability predictions despite partial observability (PO). We build on Neural Predictive Monitoring (NPM), a PM method that uses deep neural networks for approximating hybrid systems reachability, and extend it to the PO case. We propose and compare two solutions, an end-to-end approach, which directly operates on the rough observations, and a two-step approach, which introduces an intermediate state estimation step. Both solutions rely on conformal prediction to provide 1) probabilistic guarantees in the form of prediction regions and 2) sound estimates of predictive uncertainty. We use the latter to identify unreliable (and likely erroneous) predictions and to retrain and improve the monitors on these uncertain inputs (i.e., active learning). Our method results in highly accurate reachability predictions and error detection, as well as tight prediction regions with guaranteed coverage.

Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by simulation, which can be costly for large or stiff systems, particularly when a massive number of simulations has to be performed (e.g. in a multi-scale model). A strategy to reduce computational load is to abstract the population model, replacing it with a simpler stochastic model, faster to simulate. Here we pursue this idea, building on previous works and constructing a generator capable of producing stochastic trajectories in continuous space and discrete time. This generator is learned automatically from simulations of the original model in a Generative Adversarial setting. Compared to previous works, which rely on deep neural networks and Dirichlet processes, we explore the use of state of the art generative models, which are flexible enough to learn a full trajectory rather than a single transition kernel.

To understand the long-run behavior of Markov population models, the computation of the stationary distribution is often a crucial part. We propose a truncation-based approximation that employs a state-space lumping scheme, aggregating states in a grid structure. The resulting approximate stationary distribution is used to iteratively refine relevant and truncate irrelevant parts of the state-space. This way, the algorithm learns a well-justified finite-state projection tailored to the stationary behavior. We demonstrate the method's applicability to a wide range of non-linear problems with complex stationary behaviors., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2010.10096

We present MoonLight, a tool for monitoring temporal and spatio-temporal properties of mobile and spatially distributed cyber-physical systems (CPS). In the proposed framework, space is represented as a weighted graph, describing the topological configurations in which the single CPS entities (nodes of the graph) are arranged. Both nodes and edges have attributes modelling physical and logical quantities that can change in time. MoonLight is implemented in Java and supports the monitoring of Spatio-Temporal Reach and Escape Logic (STREL). MoonLight can be used as a standalone command line tool, as a Java API, or via Matlab interface. We provide here some examples using the Matlab interface and we evaluate the tool performance also by comparing with other tools specialized in monitoring only temporal properties., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures

We consider the problem of the stability of saliency-based explanations of Neural Network predictions under adversarial attacks in a classification task. Saliency interpretations of deterministic Neural Networks are remarkably brittle even when the attacks fail, i.e. for attacks that do not change the classification label. We empirically show that interpretations provided by Bayesian Neural Networks are considerably more stable under adversarial perturbations of the inputs and even under direct attacks to the explanations. By leveraging recent results, we also provide a theoretical explanation of this result in terms of the geometry of the data manifold. Additionally, we discuss the stability of the interpretations of high level representations of the inputs in the internal layers of a Network. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian methods, in addition to being more robust to adversarial attacks, have the potential to provide more stable and interpretable assessments of Neural Network predictions.

We propose two training techniques for improving the robustness of Neural Networks to adversarial attacks, i.e. manipulations of the inputs that are maliciously crafted to fool networks into incorrect predictions. Both methods are independent of the chosen attack and leverage random projections of the original inputs, with the purpose of exploiting both dimensionality reduction and some characteristic geometrical properties of adversarial perturbations. The first technique is called RP-Ensemble and consists of an ensemble of networks trained on multiple projected versions of the original inputs. The second one, named RP-Regularizer, adds instead a regularization term to the training objective.

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely used class of population-structured Markov jump processes. The method is based on a state-space lumping scheme that aggregates states in a grid structure. The resulting approximate bridging distribution is used to iteratively refine relevant and truncate irrelevant parts of the state-space. This way the algorithm learns a well-justified finite-state projection yielding guaranteed lower bounds for the system behavior under endpoint constraints. We demonstrate the method's applicability to a wide range of problems such as Bayesian inference and the analysis of rare events.

We discuss how to define a kernel for Signal Temporal Logic (STL) formulae. Such a kernel allows us to embed the space of formulae into a Hilbert space, and opens up the use of kernel-based machine learning algorithms in the context of STL. We show an application of this idea to a regression problem in formula space for probabilistic models., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures

We introduce a novel learning-based approach to synthesize safe and robust controllers for autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems and, at the same time, to generate challenging tests. This procedure combines formal methods for model verification with Generative Adversarial Networks. The method learns two Neural Networks: the first one aims at generating troubling scenarios for the controller, while the second one aims at enforcing the safety constraints. We test the proposed method on a variety of case studies.

The effectiveness and performance of artificial neural networks, particularly for visual tasks, depends in crucial ways on the receptive field of neurons. The receptive field itself depends on the interplay between several architectural aspects, including sparsity, pooling, and activation functions. In recent literature there are several ad hoc proposals trying to make receptive fields more flexible and adaptive to data. For instance, different parameterizations of convolutional and pooling layers have been proposed to increase their adaptivity. In this paper, we propose the novel theoretical framework of density-embedded layers, generalizing the transformation represented by a neuron. Specifically, the affine transformation applied on the input is replaced by a scalar product of the input, suitably represented as a piecewise constant function, with a density function associated with the neuron. This density is shown to describe directly the receptive field of the neuron. Crucially, by suitably representing such a density as a linear combination of a parametric family of functions, we can efficiently train the densities by means of any automatic differentiation system, making it adaptable to the problem at hand, and computationally efficient to evaluate. This framework captures and generalizes recent methods, allowing a fine tuning of the receptive field. In the paper, we define some novel layers and we experimentally validate them on the classic MNIST dataset., Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, submitted to NeurIPS 2020

Stochastic reaction networks are a fundamental model to describe interactions between species where random fluctuations are relevant. The master equation provides the evolution of the probability distribution across the discrete state space consisting of vectors of population counts for each species. However, since its exact solution is often elusive, several analytical approximations have been proposed. The deterministic rate equation (DRE) gives a macroscopic approximation as a compact system of differential equations that estimate the average populations for each species, but it may be inaccurate in the case of nonlinear interaction dynamics. Here we propose finite state expansion (FSE), an analytical method mediating between the microscopic and the macroscopic interpretations of a stochastic reaction network by coupling the master equation dynamics of a chosen subset of the discrete state space with the mean population dynamics of the DRE. An algorithm translates a network into an expanded one where each discrete state is represented as a further distinct species. This translation exactly preserves the stochastic dynamics, but the DRE of the expanded network can be interpreted as a correction to the original one. The effectiveness of FSE is demonstrated in models that challenge state-of-the-art techniques due to intrinsic noise, multi-scale populations, and multi-stability., Comment: 33 pages, 9 figures

Vulnerability to adversarial attacks is one of the principal hurdles to the adoption of deep learning in safety-critical applications. Despite significant efforts, both practical and theoretical, the problem remains open. In this paper, we analyse the geometry of adversarial attacks in the large-data, overparametrized limit for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We show that, in the limit, vulnerability to gradient-based attacks arises as a result of degeneracy in the data distribution, i.e., when the data lies on a lower-dimensional submanifold of the ambient space. As a direct consequence, we demonstrate that in the limit BNN posteriors are robust to gradient-based adversarial attacks. Experimental results on the MNIST and Fashion MNIST datasets with BNNs trained with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Variational Inference support this line of argument, showing that BNNs can display both high accuracy and robustness to gradient based adversarial attacks.

We consider the problem of bounding mean first passage times for a class of continuous-time Markov chains that captures stochastic interactions between groups of identical agents. The quantitative analysis of such probabilistic population models is notoriously difficult since typically neither state-based numerical approaches nor methods based on stochastic sampling give efficient and accurate results. Here, we propose a technique that extends recently developed methods using semi-definite programming to determine bounds on mean first passage times. We further apply the technique to hybrid models and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency for some examples from biology.

Stochastic models in which agents interact with their neighborhood according to a network topology are a powerful modeling framework to study the emergence of complex dynamic patterns in real-world systems. Stochastic simulations are often the preferred - sometimes the only feasible - way to investigate such systems. Previous research focused primarily on Markovian models where the random time until an interaction happens follows an exponential distribution. In this work, we study a general framework to model systems where each agent is in one of several states. Agents can change their state at random, influenced by their complete neighborhood, while the time to the next event can follow an arbitrary probability distribution. Classically, these simulations are hindered by high computational costs of updating the rates of interconnected agents and sampling the random residence times from arbitrary distributions. We propose a rejection-based, event-driven simulation algorithm to overcome these limitations. Our method over-approximates the instantaneous rates corresponding to inter-event times while rejection events counterbalance these over-approximations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on models of epidemic and information spreading., Comment: 14 pages including 2 pages Appendix and 2 pages references

Stochastic processes on complex networks, where each node is in one of several compartments, and neighboring nodes interact with each other, can be used to describe a variety of real-world spreading phenomena. However, computational analysis of such processes is hindered by the enormous size of their underlying state space. In this work, we demonstrate that lumping can be used to reduce any epidemic model to a Markov Population Model (MPM). Therefore, we propose a novel lumping scheme based on a partitioning of the nodes. By imposing different types of counting abstractions, we obtain coarse-grained Markov models with a natural MPM representation that approximate the original systems. This makes it possible to transfer the rich pool of approximation techniques developed for MPMs to the computational analysis of complex networks' dynamics. We present numerical examples to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of the MPMs, the size of the lumped state space, and the type of counting abstraction., Comment: 15 pages + 3 pages literature + 3 pages Appendix

Stochastic simulation is a widely used method for estimating quantities in models of chemical reaction networks where uncertainty plays a crucial role. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires the generation of a large number of simulation runs, which is computationally expensive. To reduce the number of necessary runs, we propose a variance reduction technique based on control variates. We exploit constraints on the statistical moments of the stochastic process to reduce the estimators' variances. We develop an algorithm that selects appropriate control variates in an on-line fashion and demonstrate the efficiency of our approach on several case studies.

Cyber-Physical Systems~(CPS) consist of collaborative, networked and tightly intertwined computational (logical) and physical components, each operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Hence, the spatial and temporal requirements play an essential role for their correct and safe execution. Furthermore, the local interactions among the system components result in global spatio-temporal emergent behaviors often impossible to predict at the design time. In this work, we pursue a complementary approach by introducing STREL a novel spatio-temporal logic that enables the specification of spatio-temporal requirements and their monitoring over the execution of mobile and spatially distributed CPS. Our logic extends the Signal Temporal Logic with two novel spatial operators reach and escape from which is possible to derive other spatial modalities such as everywhere, somewhere and surround. These operators enable a monitoring procedure where the satisfaction of the property at each location depends only on the satisfaction of its neighbours, opening the way to future distributed online monitoring algorithms. We propose both a qualitative and quantitative semantics based on constraint semirings, an algebraic structure suitable for constraint satisfaction and optimisation. We prove that, for a subclass of models, all the spatial properties expressed with reach and escape, using euclidean distance, satisfy all the model transformations using rotation, reflection and translation. Finally, we provide an offline monitoring algorithm for STREL and, to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, we show its application using the monitoring of a simulated mobile ad-hoc sensor network as running example.

The success of modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies depends critically on the ability to learn non-linear functional dependencies from large, high dimensional data sets. Despite recent high-profile successes, empirical evidence indicates that the high predictive performance is often paired with low robustness, making AI systems potentially vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this report, we provide a simple intuitive argument suggesting that high performance and vulnerability are intrinsically coupled, and largely dependent on the geometry of typical, high-dimensional data sets. Our work highlights a major potential pitfall of modern AI systems, and suggests practical research directions to ameliorate the problem.