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Staff ratings of 595 supervised forensic psychiatric patients on the Proximal Risk Factor Scale and the Problem Identification Checklist were completed monthly for an average of 33 months. During the follow-up, there were 265 incidents, 86 of which were violent. The average ratings, excluding those from the index month, differentiated patients who had incidents from those who did not. As well, the average ratings distinguished between individuals with and without incidents of a violent or sexual nature. There were significant increases in staff ratings in the months preceding the index incident month. Within-patient analyses showed that changes in dynamic risk scales comprising the best items for predicting incidents of any kind and violent or sexual incidents were strongly related to their respective outcomes and were significantly related to outcome in an independent sample. Changes in monthly staff ratings predict the imminent occurrence of antisocial and violent behaviors. (Contains 4 tables.)

Background: There is frequently great concern about the dangerousness of deinstitutionalized men with intellectual disabilities who have been institutionalized because they are considered to be at high risk for the commission of serious antisocial acts or sexual offending. Unfortunately, there is little information on whether changes in the behaviour of these men can be used to adjust supervision so as to manage risk. Methods: An appraisal of men with intellectual disabilities and histories of serious antisocial behaviours who were residing in institutions about to be closed led to a 16 month follow-up of 58 of these clients who had been transferred to community settings. Results: A total of 67% exhibited antisocial behaviour of some kind and 47% exhibited "hands-on" violent or sexual misbehaviours directed toward other clients or staff. The Violent Risk Appraisal Guide was the best predictor of new violent or sexual incidents and a variety of other pre-release predictors were related to the likelihood of antisocial incidents of any kind. Overall predictive accuracy was moderate. A field trial showed that monthly staff ratings of client characteristics were related to antisocial incidents. Conclusions: These preliminary data indicate that measures of dynamic risk involving staff ratings are worth developing and evaluating.

Research examining the validity of the criteria used in psychological screening tests is presented. Particular attention is given to the results of a Holden Psychological Screening Inventory distributed to over two hundred males in Canadian prisons and correction units.