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Obtaining high-resolution maps of precipitation data can provide key insights to stakeholders to assess a sustainable access to water resources at urban scale. Mapping a nonstationary, sparse process such as precipitation at very high spatial resolution requires the interpolation of global datasets at the location where ground stations are available with statistical models able to capture complex non-Gaussian global space-time dependence structures. In this work, we propose a new approach based on capturing the spatial dependence of a latent Gaussian process via a locally deformed Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) with a buffer allowing for a different spatial structure across land and sea. The finite volume approximation of the SPDE, coupled with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation ensures feasible Bayesian inference for tens of millions of observations. The simulation studies showcase the improved predictability of the proposed approach against stationary and no-buffer alternatives. The proposed approach is then used to yield high resolution simulations of daily precipitation across the United States.

We develop a multi-dimensional, parallelized domain decomposition strategy (DDC) for mass-transfer particle tracking (MTPT) methods. These methods are a type of Lagrangian algorithm for simulating reactive transport and are able to be parallelized by employing large numbers of CPU cores to accelerate run times. In this work, we investigate different procedures for "tiling" the domain in two and three dimensions, (2-d and 3-d), as this type of formal DDC construction is currently limited to 1-d. An optimal tiling is prescribed based on physical problem parameters and the number of available CPU cores, as each tiling provides distinct results in both accuracy and run time. We further extend the most efficient technique to 3-d for comparison, leading to an analytical discussion of the effect of dimensionality on strategies for implementing DDC schemes. Increasing computational resources (cores) within the DDC method produces a trade-off between inter-node communication and on-node work. For an optimally subdivided diffusion problem, the 2-d parallelized algorithm achieves nearly perfect linear speedup in comparison with the serial run up to around 2700 cores, reducing a 5-hour simulation to 8 seconds, and the 3-d algorithm maintains appreciable speedup up to 1700 cores., Comment: 26 pages, 21 figures, Submitted to Journal of Computational Physics (JCP)

Traditional interpolation techniques for particle tracking include binning and convolutional formulas that use pre-determined (i.e., closed-form, parameteric) kernels. In many instances, the particles are introduced as point sources in time and space, so the cloud of particles (either in space or time) is a discrete representation of the Green's function of an underlying PDE. As such, each particle is a sample from the Green's function; therefore, each particle should be distributed according to the Green's function. In short, the kernel of a convolutional interpolation of the particle sample "cloud" should be a replica of the cloud itself. This idea gives rise to an iterative method by which the form of the kernel may be discerned in the process of interpolating the Green's function. When the Green's function is a density, this method is broadly applicable to interpolating a kernel density estimate based on random data drawn from a single distribution. We formulate and construct the algorithm and demonstrate its ability to perform kernel density estimation of skewed and/or heavy-tailed data including breakthrough curves.

The problem of a spatially discontinuous diffusion coefficient ($D(\boldsymbol x)$) is one that may be encountered in hydrogeologic systems due to natural geological features or as a consequence of numerical discretization of flow properties. To date, mass-transfer particle-tracking (MTPT) methods, a family of Lagrangian methods in which diffusion is jointly simulated by random walk and diffusive mass transfers, have been unable to solve this problem. This manuscript presents a new mass-transfer (MT) algorithm that enables MTPT methods to accurately solve the problem of discontinuous $D(\boldsymbol x)$. To achieve this, we derive a semi-analytical solution to the discontinuous $D(\boldsymbol x)$ problem by employing a predictor-corrector approach, and we use this semi-analytical solution as the weighting function in a reformulated MT algorithm. This semi-analytical solution is generalized for cases with multiple 1D interfaces as well as for 2D cases, including a $2 \times 2$ tiling of 4 subdomains that corresponds to a numerically-generated diffusion field. The solutions generated by this new mass-transfer algorithm closely agree with an analytical 1D solution or, in more complicated cases, trusted numerical results, demonstrating the success of our proposed approach., Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures

Geochemical systems are known to exhibit highly variable spatiotemporal behavior. This may be observed both in non-smooth concentration curves in space for a single sampling time and also in variability between samples taken from the same location at different times. However, most models that are designed to simulate these systems provide only single-solution smooth curves and fail to capture the noise and variability seen in the data. We apply a recently developed reactive particle-tracking method to a system that displays highly-complex geochemical behavior. When the method is made to most closely resemble a corresponding Eulerian method, in its unperturbed form, we see near-exact match between solutions of the two models. More importantly, we consider two approaches for perturbing the model and find that the spatially-perturbed condition is able to capture a greater degree of the variability present in the data. This method of perturbation is a task to which particle methods are uniquely suited and Eulerian models are not well-suited. Additionally, because of the nature of the algorithm, noisy spatial gradients can be highly resolved by a large number of mobile particles, and this incurs negligible computational cost, as compared to expensive chemistry calculations., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures

The reconstruction of smooth density fields from scattered data points is a procedure that has multiple applications in a variety of disciplines, including Lagrangian (particle-based) models of solute transport in fluids. In random walk particle tracking (RWPT) simulations, particle density is directly linked to solute concentrations, which is normally the main variable of interest, not just for visualization and post-processing of the results, but also for the computation of non-linear processes, such as chemical reactions. Previous works have shown the superiority of kernel density estimation (KDE) over other methods such as binning, in terms of its ability to accurately estimate the "true" particle density relying on a limited amount of information. Here, we develop a grid-projected KDE methodology to determine particle densities by applying kernel smoothing on a pilot binning; this may be seen as a "hybrid" approach between binning and KDE. The kernel bandwidth is optimized locally. Through simple implementation examples, we elucidate several appealing aspects of the proposed approach, including its computational efficiency and the possibility to account for typical boundary conditions, which would otherwise be cumbersome in conventional KDE.

We present and derive a novel double-continuum transport model based on pore-scale characteristics. Our approach relies on building a simplified unit cell made up of immobile and mobile continua. We employ a numerically resolved pore-scale velocity distribution to characterize the volume of each continuum and to define the velocity profile in the mobile continuum. Using the simplified unit cell, we derive a closed form model, which includes two effective parameters that need to be estimated: a characteristic length scale and a ratio of waiting times RD that lumps the effect of stagnant regions and escape process. To calibrate and validate our model, we rely on a set of pore-scale numerical simulation performed on a 2D disordered segregated periodic porous medium considering different initial solute distributions. Using a Global Sensitivity Analysis, we explore the impact of the two effective parameters on solute concentration profiles and thereby define a sensitivity analysis driven criterion for model calibration. The latter is compared to a classical calibration approach. Our results show that, depending on the initial condition, the mass exchange process between mobile and immobile continua impact on solute profile shape significantly. By introducing parameter RD we obtain a flexible transport model capable of interpreting both symmetric and highly skewed solute concentration profiles. We show that the effectiveness of the calibration of the two parameters closely depends on the content of information of calibration dataset and the selected objective function whose definition can be supported by of the implementation of model sensitivity analysis. By relying on a sensitivity analysis driven calibration, we are able to provide a good interpretation of the concentration profile evolution independent of the given initial condition relying on a unique set of effective parameter values., Comment: 38 pages of manuscript plus 4 pages of Supplementary Material

The Eulerian advection-dispersion-reaction equation (ADRE) suffers the well-known scale-effect of reduced apparent reaction rates between chemically dissimilar fluids at larger scales (or dimensional averaging). The dispersion tensor in the ADRE must equally and simultaneously account for both solute mixing and spreading. Recent reactive-particle-tracking (RPT) algorithms can, by separate mechanisms, simulate 1) smaller-scale mixing by inter-particle mass transfer, and 2) mass spreading by traditional random walks. To test the supposition that the RPT can accurately track these separate mechanisms, we upscale reactive transport in Hagen-Poiseuille flow between two plates. The simple upscaled 1-D RPT model with one velocity value, an upscaled Taylor macro-dispersivity, and the local molecular diffusion coefficient matches the results obtained from a detailed 2-D model with fully described velocity and diffusion. Both models use the same thermodynamic reaction rate, because the rate is not forced to absorb the loss of information upon upscaling. Analytic and semi-analytic upscaling is also performed using volume averaging and ensemble streamtube techniques. Volume averaging does not perform as well as the RPT, while ensemble streamtubes (using an effective dispersion coefficient along with macro-dispersion) perform almost exactly the same as RPT.

Starting from common assumptions, we build a rate equation model for multi-strain disease dynamics in terms of immune repertoire classes. We then move to a strain-level description where a low-order closure reminiscent of a pair approximation can be applied. We characterize the endemic equilibrium of the ensuing model in the absence of mutation and discuss the presence of degeneracy regarding the prevalence of the different strains. Finally we study the behavior of the system under the injection of mutant strains., Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures