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Multivariate random effects with unstructured variance-covariance matrices of large dimensions, $q$, can be a major challenge to estimate. In this paper, we introduce a new implementation of a reduced-rank approach to fit large dimensional multivariate random effects by writing them as a linear combination of $d < q$ latent variables. By adding reduced-rank functionality to the package glmmTMB, we enhance the mixed models available to include random effects of dimensions that were previously not possible. We apply the reduced-rank random effect to two examples, estimating a generalized latent variable model for multivariate abundance data and a random-slopes model.

Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses, e.g., the classic SIR model which splits the population into susceptible, infected, and recovered compartments. However, as more information about a specific pathogen is discovered, or as a means to investigate the effects of heterogeneities, it becomes useful to stratify models further -- for example by age, geographic location, or pathogen strain. The operation of constructing stratified compartmental models from a pair of simpler models resembles the Cartesian product used in graph theory, but several key differences complicate matters. In this article we give explicit mathematical definitions for several so-called ``model products'' and provide examples where each is suitable. We also provide examples of model stratification where no existing model product will generate the desired result.

Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used.

Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The effect of testing processes on epidemic dynamics depends on factors underlying implementation, particularly testing intensity and on whom testing is focused. Here, we use a simple model to explore how the individual-level effects of testing might directly impact population-level spread. Our model development was motivated by the COVID-19 epidemic, but has generic epidemiological and testing structures. To the classic SIR framework we have added a per capita testing intensity, and compartment-specific testing weights, which can be adjusted to reflect different testing emphases -- surveillance, diagnosis, or control. We derive an analytic expression for the relative reduction in the basic reproductive number due to testing, test-reporting and related isolation behaviours. Intensive testing and fast test reporting are expected to be beneficial at the community level because they can provide a rapid assessment of the situation, identify hot spots, and may enable rapid contact-tracing. Direct effects of fast testing at the individual level are less clear, and may depend on how individuals' behaviour is affected by testing information. Our simple model shows that under some circumstances both increased testing intensity and faster test reporting can reduce the effectiveness of control, and allows us to explore the conditions under which this occurs. Conversely, we find that focusing testing on infected individuals always acts to increase effectiveness of control.

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of a new type of integrated climate-economic model recently proposed in the literature, where the core economic component is based on the Goodwin-Keen dynamics instead of a neoclassical growth model. Because these models can exhibit much richer behaviour, including multiple equilibria, runaway trajectories and unbounded oscillations, it is crucial to determine how sensitive they are to changes in underlying parameters. We focus on four economic parameters (markup rate, speed of price adjustments, coefficient of money illusion, growth rate of productivity) and two climate parameters (size of upper ocean reservoir, equilibrium climate sensitivity) and show how their relative effects on the outcomes of the model can be quantified by methods that can be applied to an arbitrary number of parameters., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

The penalized Cox proportional hazard model is a popular analytical approach for survival data with a large number of covariates. Such problems are especially challenging when covariates vary over follow-up time (i.e., the covariates are time-dependent). The standard R packages for fully penalized Cox models cannot currently incorporate time-dependent covariates. To address this gap, we implement a variant of gradient descent algorithm (proximal gradient descent) for fitting penalized Cox models. We apply our implementation to real and simulated data sets., Comment: Submitted to Journal of Statistical Software

Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to compare two common assumptions about disease incidence reports: individuals can report their infection as soon as they become infected or as soon as they recover. We show that incorrect assumptions about the underlying observation processes can bias estimates of the basic reproduction number and lead to overly narrow confidence intervals., Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures

Null hypothesis significance testing remains popular despite decades of concern about misuse and misinterpretation. We believe that much of the problem is due to language: significance testing has little to do with other meanings of the word "significance". Despite the limitations of null-hypothesis tests, we argue here that they remain useful in many contexts as a guide to whether a certain effect can be seen clearly in that context (e.g. whether we can clearly see that a correlation or between-group difference is positive or negative). We therefore suggest that researchers describe the conclusions of null-hypothesis tests in terms of statistical "clarity" rather than statistical "significance". This simple semantic change could substantially enhance clarity in statistical communication., Comment: 11 Pages, 1 Table, 0 Figures

Birds flying across a region containing a windfarm risk death from turbine encounters. This paper describes a geometric model that helps estimate that risk and a spreadsheet that implements the model.

Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed- and random-effects terms. The formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profiled REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of the model parameters. The appropriate criterion is optimized, using one of the constrained optimization functions in R, to provide the parameter estimates. We describe the structure of the model, the steps in evaluating the profiled deviance or REML criterion, and the structure of classes or types that represents such a model. Sufficient detail is included to allow specialization of these structures by users who wish to write functions to fit specialized linear mixed models, such as models incorporating pedigrees or smoothing splines, that are not easily expressible in the formula language used by lmer., Comment: 51 pages, including R code, and an appendix

We present new methods of generating Prouhet-Tarry-Escott partitions of arbitrarily large regularity. One of these methods generalizes the construction of the Thue-Morse sequence to finite alphabets with more than two letters. We show how one can use such partitions to (theoretically) pour the same volume coffee from an urn into a finite number of cups so that each cup gets almost the same amount of caffeine.