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1. Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Author

Notz, Dirk, Dörr, Jakob, Bailey, David A, Blockley, Ed, Bushuk, Mitchell, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Dekker, Evelien, DeRepentigny, Patricia, Docquier, David, Fučkar, Neven S., Fyfe, John C., Jahn, Alexandra, Holland, Marika, Hunke, Elizabeth, Iovino, Doroteaciro, Khosravi, Narges, Gurvan, Madec, Massonnet, François, O'Farrell, Siobhan, Petty, Alek, Rana, Arun, Roach, Lettie, Rosenblum, Erica, Rousset, Clement, Semmler, Tido, Stroeve, Julienne, Toyoda, Takahiro, Tremblay, Bruno, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Computational Research Division [LBNL Berkeley] (CRD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado [Boulder], Oceanography Section [Boulder], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
model evaluation, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, sea ice, CMIP6, Arctic, climate models, model evaluation, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 551.41, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Arctic, climate models, Sea ice, 14. Life underwater, CMIP6, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Global warming, Ensemble average, Arctic ice pack, sea ice, The arctic, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Internal variability, Climatology, Environmental science, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Climate model
Abstract

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area, Plain Language Summary: We examine simulations of Arctic sea ice from the latest generation of global climate models. We find that the observed evolution of Arctic sea‐ice area lies within the spread of model simulations. In particular, the latest generation of models performs better than models from previous generations at simulating the sea‐ice loss for a given amount of CO2 emissions and for a given amount of global warming. In most simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area, Key Points: CMIP6 model simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area capture the observational record in the multimodel ensemble spread. The sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to changes in the forcing is better captured by CMIP6 models than by CMIP5 and CMIP3 models. The majority of available CMIP6 simulations lose most September sea ice for the first time before 2050 in all scenarios., National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Center for Atmospheric Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005323, NSF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, CSIRO http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000943, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program, European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, 727862 APPLICATE, Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, Research Concile of Norway, Arctic Across Scales Project, Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038, Fond de recherche du Qubec‐Nature et Technologies, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002789, EU Horizon 2020 OSeaIce project, German Ministry for Education and Research, H2020 MSCA IF, Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program, NSF‐OPP, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000192, Canada C150 Chair Program, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011693, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions (MSCA) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102, F.R.S. ‐ FNRS | Fonds pour la Formation la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (FRIA), Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004063, Max Planck Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189, Research Council of Norway http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015

Published
2020
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2. An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author

UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Keen, Ann, Blockley, Ed, Bailey, David A., Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Bushuk, Mitchell, Delhaye, Steve, Docquier, David, Feltham, Daniel, Massonnet, François, O'Farrell, Siobhan, Ponsoni, Leandro, Rodriguez, José M., Schroeder, David, Swart, Neil, Toyoda, Takahiro, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Wyser, Klaus, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Keen, Ann, Blockley, Ed, Bailey, David A., Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Bushuk, Mitchell, Delhaye, Steve, Docquier, David, Feltham, Daniel, Massonnet, François, O'Farrell, Siobhan, Ponsoni, Leandro, Rodriguez, José M., Schroeder, David, Swart, Neil, Toyoda, Takahiro, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Vancoppenolle, Martin, and Wyser, Klaus

Abstract

We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice for 15 models submitted to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using new diagnostics that have not been available for previous model inter-comparisons. These diagnostics allow us to look beyond the standard metrics of ice cover and thickness to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in climate models in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. For the 1960–1989 multi-model mean, the dominant processes causing annual ice growth are basal growth and frazil ice formation, which both occur during the winter. The main processes by which ice is lost are basal melting, top melting and advection of ice out of the Arctic. The first two processes occur in summer, while the latter process is present all year. The sea ice budgets for individual models are strikingly similar overall in terms of the major processes causing ice growth and loss and in terms of the time of year during which each process is important. However, there are also some key differences between the models, and we have found a number of relationships between model formulation and components of the ice budget that hold for all or most of the CMIP6 models considered here. The relative amounts of frazil and basal ice formation vary between the models, and the amount of frazil ice formation is strongly dependent on the value chosen for the minimum frazil ice thickness. There are also differences in the relative amounts of top and basal melting, potentially dependent on how much shortwave radiation can penetrate through the sea ice into the ocean. For models with prognostic melt ponds, the choice of scheme may affect the amount of basal growth, basal melt and top melt, and the choice of thermodynamic scheme is important in determining the amount of basal growth and top melt. As the ice cover and mass decline during the 21st century, we see a shift in the timing of the top and basal melting in the multi-model mean, with m

Published
2021

3. An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author

Keen, Ann, primary, Blockley, Ed, additional, Bailey, David A., additional, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, additional, Bushuk, Mitchell, additional, Delhaye, Steve, additional, Docquier, David, additional, Feltham, Daniel, additional, Massonnet, François, additional, O'Farrell, Siobhan, additional, Ponsoni, Leandro, additional, Rodriguez, José M., additional, Schroeder, David, additional, Swart, Neil, additional, Toyoda, Takahiro, additional, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, additional, Vancoppenolle, Martin, additional, and Wyser, Klaus, additional

Published
2021
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4. Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations

Author

Seland, Øyvind, Bentsen, Mats, Olivié, Dirk, Toniazzo, Thomas, Gjermundsen, Ada, Seland Graff, Lise, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Kumar Gupta, Alok, He, Yan-Chun, Kirkevåg, Alf, Schwinger, Jörg, Tjiputra, Jerry, Aas, Kjetil Schanke, Bethke, Ingo, Fan, Yuanchao, Griesfeller, Jan, Grini, Alf, Guo, Chuncheng, Ilicak, Mehmet, Hafsahl Karset, Inger Helene, Landgren, Oskar, Liakka, Johan, Onsum Moseid, Kine, Nummelin, Aleksi, Spensberger, Clemens, Tang, Hui, Zhang, Zhongshi, Heinze, Christoph, Iversen, Trond, Schulz, Michael, Seland, Øyvind, Bentsen, Mats, Olivié, Dirk, Toniazzo, Thomas, Gjermundsen, Ada, Seland Graff, Lise, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, Kumar Gupta, Alok, He, Yan-Chun, Kirkevåg, Alf, Schwinger, Jörg, Tjiputra, Jerry, Aas, Kjetil Schanke, Bethke, Ingo, Fan, Yuanchao, Griesfeller, Jan, Grini, Alf, Guo, Chuncheng, Ilicak, Mehmet, Hafsahl Karset, Inger Helene, Landgren, Oskar, Liakka, Johan, Onsum Moseid, Kine, Nummelin, Aleksi, Spensberger, Clemens, Tang, Hui, Zhang, Zhongshi, Heinze, Christoph, Iversen, Trond, and Schulz, Michael

Abstract

The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. NorESM2 is based on the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and shares with CESM2 the computer code infrastructure and many Earth system model components. However, NorESM2 employs entirely different ocean and ocean biogeochemistry models. The atmosphere component of NorESM2 (CAM-Nor) includes a different module for aerosol physics and chemistry, including interactions with cloud and radiation; additionally, CAM-Nor includes improvements in the formulation of local dry and moist energy conservation, in local and global angular momentum conservation, and in the computations for deep convection and air-sea fluxes. The surface components of NorESM2 have minor changes in the albedo calculations and to land and sea-ice models. We present results from simulations with NorESM2 that were carried out for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Two versions of the model are used: one with lower (similar to 2 degrees) atmosphere-land resolution and one with medium (similar to 1 degrees) atmosphere-land resolution. The stability of the pre-industrial climate and the sen- sitivity of the model to abrupt and gradual quadrupling of CO2 are assessed, along with the ability of the model to simulate the historical climate under the CMIP6 forcings. Compared to observations and reanalyses, NorESM2 represents an improvement over previous versions of NorESM in most aspects. NorESM2 appears less sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than its predecessors, with an estimated equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.5 K in both resolutions on a 150-year time frame; however, this estimate increases with the time window and the climate sensitivity at equilibration is much higher. We also consider the model response to future scenarios as defined by selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project defined

Published
2020
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5. An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models

Author

Keen, Ann, primary, Blockley, Ed, additional, Bailey, David, additional, Boldingh Debernard, Jens, additional, Bushuk, Mitchell, additional, Delhaye, Steve, additional, Docquier, David, additional, Feltham, Daniel, additional, Massonnet, François, additional, O'Farrell, Siobhan, additional, Ponsoni, Leandro, additional, Rodriguez, José M., additional, Schroeder, David, additional, Swart, Neil, additional, Toyoda, Takahiro, additional, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, additional, Vancoppenolle, Martin, additional, and Wyser, Klaus, additional

Published
2020
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