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The empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) model in its current version 2.0 runs as a space safety service in the frame of ESA’s Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre. The ESWF model forecasts the solar wind speed at Earth with a leadtime of 4 days. The algorithm uses an empirical relation found between the area of solar coronal holes (CHs), as observed in EUV within a 15° meridional slice, and the in-situ measured solar wind speed at 1 AU. This relation however, forecasts Gaussian type speed profiles, as the CH rotates in and out of the meridional slice, causing some discrepancy in the timing between forecasted and observed solar wind speed. With adaptations to the ESWF 2.0 algorithm we improve the precision and accuracy of the ESWF speed profiles. For that we implement compression and rarefaction effects occurring between solar wind streams of different velocities in interplanetary space. By considering the propagation times for plasma parcels between the Sun and Earth and their interactions, we achieve the asymmetrical shape of the speed profile that is characteristic of highspeed streams (HSS). By further implementing CH segmentation, co-latitude information and dynamic thresholding, we find that the newly developed ESWF 3.2 performs significantly better than ESWF 2.0. For a sample of 294 different HSSs, we derive a relative increase in hits of the timing and peak velocity by 13.9%. The Pearson correlation coefficient increases by 14.3% from cc = 0.35 to cc = 0.40.

We investigated the interaction of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a coronal hole (CH) in its vicinity using remote-sensing and 1 AU in situ data. We used extreme-ultraviolet images and magnetograms to identify coronal structures and coronagraph images to analyze the early CME propagation. The Wind spacecraft and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) provide plasma and magnetic field data of near-Earth interplanetary space. We applied various diagnostic tools to the images and to the time-series data. We find that the CME erupts under a streamer and causes the evacuation of material at its far end, which is observable as dimming and subsequent CH formation. The CME is likely deflected in its early propagation and travels southwest of the Sun-Earth line. In situ data lack signatures of a large magnetic cloud, but show a small flux rope at the trailing edge of the interplanetary CME (ICME), followed by an Alfvénic wave. This wave is identified as exhaust from a Petschek-type reconnection region following the successful application of a Walén test. We infer that the two spacecraft at 1 AU most likely traverse the ICME leg that is in the process of reconnection along the heliospheric current sheet that separates the ICME and the high-speed stream outflowing from the CH.

Since the 1970s it has been empirically known that the area of solar coronal holes affects the properties of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) at Earth. We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We assume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. Small HSSs can be described to entirely consist of boundary region plasma, which intrinsically results in smaller peak velocities. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The shorter the longitudinal width of an HSS close to the Sun, the more of its “fastest” HSS plasma parcels from the HSS core and trailing boundary region have impinged upon the stream interface with the preceding slow solar wind, and the smaller is the peak velocity of the HSS at Earth. As the longitudinal width is statistically correlated to the area of coronal holes, this also explains the well-known empirical relationship between coronal hole areas and HSS peak velocities. Further, the temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the assumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) is a probabilistic model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that predicts the CME hit chance, most probable arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and calculate the confidence intervals. DBEM is based on the 2D analytical Drag-based Model (DBM) with very short computational time. By using CME cone geometry with flattening DBM calculates the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. DBEM considers the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to obtain the distribution and significance of the DBM results. As an important tool for space weather forecasters, DBM/DBEM web application is integrated as one of the ESA Space Situational Awareness portal services (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/current-space-weather). Important requirement to perform DBM calculations is to assume that two input parameters namely background solar wind speed and the drag parameter γ are constant in order to have the analytical solution and fast computational times. However, this assumption is not always valid in more complex heliospheric conditions. Thus, to further increase the accuracy of CME propagation forecast we developed the new DBEMv4 version that calculates CME propagation in more steps with variable solar wind speeds. This allows also to employ as DBEMv4 input the dynamic solar wind data in real-time taken from simple persistence model under consideration of the CME propagation direction.

The empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) model is an ESA service to forecast the solar wind speed at Earth with 4 days lead time. The model uses a simple empirical relation between the area of coronal holes (CHs) as measured in meridional slices in EUV at the Sun and the in-situ measured solar wind speed at 1 AU (Vršnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007). The relation has the drawback that Gaussian type speed profiles are produced as the CH rotates in and out of the meridional slice. With adaptations to the ESWF algorithm we aim to improve the precision of the ESWF speed profile by implementing compression and rarefaction effects occurring between SW streams of different velocities in the interplanetary space. By considering the propagation times for plasma parcels between the Sun and Earth and their interactions, we achieve the asymmetrical shape of the speed profile that is characteristic of high-speed streams (HSS). We present a statistical analysis for the period 2012 - 2019 showing that our adaptions improve the ability to predict HSS speed profiles as well as smaller structures with higher precision.

An analytical diffusion-expansion Forbush decrease (FD) model, ForbMod, first presented in Dumbović et al. (2018) provides a method to calculate FD amplitude from the parameters of the flux rope (FR) part of the ICME. In this model, FR has a cylindrical shape and it is initially free of cosmic ray (CR) particles. FR moves with a constant velocity and expands in an interplanetary space while the magnetic field inside it decreases. It's radius is a function of time and it expands self-similarly slowly filling with CR particles by perpendicular diffusion. We first modified the original ForbMod to include particles of all energies. Then we used it to obtain the values of power-law indices for the radius and magnetic field changes from the observed FD amplitudes in the center of the FR. Since power-law indices need to be calculated numerically, we test the numerical method and examine the range of values of FR parameters which would result in power-law indices being in the expected range. We apply the model to several events and analyse the results.

On scales of days, the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is affected by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions (CIRs), causing so-called Forbush decreases and recurrent Forbush decreases (RFDs), respectively. We explain the properties and behavior of RFDs recorded at about 1 au that are caused by CIRs generated by solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) that emanate from coronal holes. We employed a convection-diffusion GCR propagation model based on the Fokker-Planck equation and applied it to solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field properties at 1 au. Our analysis shows that the only two effects that are relevant for a plausible overall explanation of the observations are the enhanced convection effect caused by the increased velocity of the HSS and the reduced diffusion effect caused by the enhanced magnetic field and its fluctuations within the CIR and HSS structure. These two effects that we considered in the model are sufficient to explain not only the main signatures of RFDs, but also the sometimes observed "over-recovery" and secondary dips in RFD profiles. The explanation in terms of the convection-diffusion GCR propagation hypothesis is tested by applying our model to the observations of a long-lived CIR that recurred over 27 rotations in 2007-2008. Our analysis demonstrates a very good match of the model results and observations., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures

Configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and related ambient solar wind features in the ecliptic and meridional planes are different. Therefore, one can expect that the coronal mass ejection (CME) inclination influences the propagation of the CME itself. This study aims to investigate the non-radial flow in the sheath region of the interplanetary CME (ICME) in order to provide the first proxy to relate the ICME orientation with its propagation. We investigated isolated CME-ICME events from the period 1997-2018. We obtained the CME tilt in the “near-Sun” environment by performing the ellipse fitting technique to the CME outer front as determined from the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph. In the “near-Earth” environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in-situ plasma and field data and we investigated the non-radial flow in its sheath region. Most of the CME-ICME pairs under investigation were found to be characterized by a low inclination. For the majority of CME-ICME pairs, we obtain consistent estimations of the dominant inclination from remote and in situ data. The observed non-radial flows in the sheath region show a greater y-direction to z-direction flow ratio for high-inclination events, indicating that the CME orientation could have an impact on the CME propagation.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are generally considered magnetic structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis (flux rope, FR). The FR axis can be oriented at any angle to the ecliptic. The dynamics of the CME in interplanetary (IP) space is determined primarily by the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) drag force, i.e., the interaction of the CME with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the ambient solar wind (SW). The configuration of IMF and SW is neither homogeneous nor isotropic in IP space. For this very reason, we expect the occurrence of variations in the dynamics of the CME with respect to the orientation of its FR axis. In other words, we expect some difference in the propagation of CMEs with a FR axis parallel to the ecliptic plane (CMEs with low inclination) and CMEs with a FR axis perpendicular to the ecliptic plane (CMEs with high inclination). We study isolated Earth-directed CMEs during 1997- 2018. We obtain the inclination of the CME in the "near-Sun" environment by applying the ellipse fitting technique to the outer front of the CME determined with the SOHO /LASCO coronagraph. In the "near-Earth" environment, we determined the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and magnetic field data. We also investigate the non-radial flows (NRFs) in the sheath region of ICME. Most of the CME-ICME associations studied have low inclination. For most CME-ICME pairs, we have obtained consistent estimates of the dominant inclination from remote sensing and in situ data. The observed NRFs in the sheath region show a larger ratio between y- and z-directions for high inclination events, suggesting that the orientation of the CME likely has an impact on its propagation. In addition, we discuss the effects of CME orientation on MHD drag in IP space. These results provide new insights into CME dynamics, the understanding of which is critical for improving space weather forecasting.

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk center CH observed on 9/19/2010, and applying a single method to five different EUV filtergrams for this CH. Open flux was calculated using five different magnetic maps. The standard deviation (interpreted as the uncertainty) in the open flux estimate for this CH was about 26%. However, including the variability of different magnetic data sources, this uncertainty almost doubles to 45%. We use two of the methods to characterize the area and open flux for all CHs in this time period. We find that the open flux is greatly underestimated compared to values inferred from in-situ measurements (by 2.2-4 times). We also test our detection techniques on simulated emission images from a thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. We find that the methods overestimate the area and open flux in the simulated CH, but the average error in the flux is only about 7%. The full-Sun detections on the simulated corona underestimate the model open flux, but by factors well below what is needed to account for the missing flux in the observations. Under-detection of open flux in coronal holes likely contributes to the recognized deficit in solar open flux, but is unlikely to resolve it., 28 pages, 10 figures, submitted to ApJ

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $\gamma $ . A very short computational time of DBM (< 0.01 s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determining the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME–ICME lists and it is compared with previous DBEM versions, ICME being a short-hand for interplanetary CME. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $\gamma $ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ( $\gamma \approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km−1, $w \approx $ 425 km s−1) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation than the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME–ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of −11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed). This can be partially reduced by using larger values for $\gamma $ resulting in smaller prediction errors ( $\mathrm{ME} =-3.9$ h, MAE = 14.5 h) but at the cost of larger prediction errors for single fast CMEs as well as larger CME arrival speed prediction errors. DBEMv3 showed also slight improvement in the performance for all calculated output parameters compared to the previous DBEM versions.

Beyond certain distance the ICME propagation becomes mostly governed by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. Configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the inclination of the CME flux rope axis i.e. tilt, influences the propagation of the ICME itself. In order to study the relation between the tilt parameter and the ICME propagation we investigated isolated Earth-impacting CME-ICME evets in the time period from 2006. to 2014. We determined the CME tilt in the “near-Sun” environment from the 3D reconstruction of the CME, obtained by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model using coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions. We determined the tilt of the ICME in the “near-Earth” environment using in-situ data. We constrained our study to CME-ICME events that show no evidence of rotation while propagating, i.e. have a similar tilt in the “near-Sun” and “near-Earth” environment. We present preliminary results of our study and discuss their implications for space-weather forecasting using the drag-based(ensemble) [DB(E)M] model of heliospheric propagation.

Using combined STEREO-SOHO white-light data, we present a method to determine the volume and density of a coronal mass ejection (CME) by applying the graduated cylindrical shell model (GCS) and deprojected mass derivation. Under the assumption that the CME mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self-similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15–30 Rs) and at 1 AU. The procedure is applied on a sample of 29 well-observed CMEs and compared to their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs). Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in-situ measured proton densities at 1 AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: i) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant and ii) a weak correlation for the sheath density by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass - as expected for a mass pile-up process - that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in-situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density and solar wind speed as measured 24 hours ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath-plasma indeed stems from piled-up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material is piled up.

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is an analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that predicts the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, w and the drag parameter γ. A very short computational time of DBM (< 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that considers the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Using such an approach, we apply DBEM to determine the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and calculate the confidence intervals. Recently, a new DBEMv3 version was developed including the various improvements and Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) option for the CME geometry input as well as the CME propagation visualizations. Thus, we compare the DBEMv3 with previous DBEM versions (e.g. DBEMv2), evaluate it and determine the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists. Compared to the previous versions, the DBEMv3 provides very similar results for all calculated output parameters with slight improvement in the performance. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained, similar to previous DBM and DBEM evaluations. Fully operational DBEMv3 web application was integrated as one of the ESA Space Situational Awareness portal services (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/current-space-weather) providing an important tool for space weather forecasters.

Global EUV waves remain a controversial phenomenon more than 20 yr after their discovery by SOHO/EIT. Although consensus is growing in the community that they are most likely large-amplitude waves or shocks, the wide variety of observations and techniques used to identify and analyze them have led to disagreements regarding their physical properties and interpretation. Here, we use a 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona to simulate an EUV wave event on 2009 February 13 to enable a detailed validation of the various commonly used detection and analysis techniques of global EUV waves. The simulated event exhibits comparable behavior to that of a real EUV wave event, with similar kinematic behavior and plasma parameter evolution. The kinematics of the wave are estimated via visual identification and profile analysis, with both approaches providing comparable results. We find that projection effects can affect the derived kinematics of the wave, due to the variation in fast-mode wave speed with height in the corona. Coronal seismology techniques typically used for estimates of the coronal magnetic field are also tested and found to estimate fast-mode speeds comparable to those of the model. Plasma density and temperature variations of the wave front are also derived using a regularized inversion approach and found to be consistent with observed wave events. These results indicate that global waves are best interpreted as large-amplitude waves and that they can be used to probe the coronal medium using well-defined analysis techniques.

We determine the three-dimensional geometry and deprojected mass of 29 well-observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) using combined Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory - Solar and Heliospheric Observatory white-light data. From the geometry parameters, we calculate the volume of the CME for the magnetic ejecta (flux-rope type geometry) and sheath structure (shell-like geometry resembling the (I)CME frontal rim). Working under the assumption that the CME mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self-similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15-30 Rs) and at 1 AU. Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in-situ measured proton densities at 1 AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: (1) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant (cc approximate to 0.56 - 0.59), and (2) a weak correlation for the sheath density (cc approximate to 0.26) by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass-as expected for a mass pile-up process-that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in-situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density (cc approximate to -0.73) and solar wind speed (cc approximate to 0.56) as measured 24 h ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath-plasma indeed stems from piled-up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material could be piled up.

Understanding space weather driven by the solar activity is crucial as it can affect various human technologies, health as well as it can have important implications for the space environment near the Earth and the Earth’s atmosphere. In order to better asses space weather forecasts various empirical, drag-based and MHD models have been developed to predict the arrival time of CMEs. One of them is the analytical Drag-based Model (DBM) applying the equation of CME motion which is determined by the drag force from the background solar wind acting on the CME. DBM predictions depend on various initial parameters such as CME launch speed, background solar wind speed and empirically derived drag parameter as well CME’s angular half-width and longitude of CME source region for a DBM CME cone geometry. Since many of input parameters may be inaccurate or unreliable due to limited observations, the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) was developed that considers the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of a number of different input parameters to calculate a distribution and significance of DBM results. DBM has the advantage of having very short computational time (< 0.01s) and DBEM ensemble runs with many thousand members can be performed within few seconds on a normal computer. Using such approach, DBEM can determine the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and calculate the forecast confidence intervals. Recently, DBEM web interface was also integrated as one of the ESA Space Situational Awareness web portal space weather services (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather). We’ll present the recent DBEM developments together with the validation of its predictions using observations and other models as well as the input parameter sensitivity tests.

Forbush decreases (FDs) are depletions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) count rate that last typically for about a week and can be caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or corotating interacting regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs that drive shocks cause large FDs that often show a two-step decrease where the first step is attributed to the shock/sheath region, while the second step is attributed to the closed magnetic structure. Since the difference in size of shock and sheath region is significant, and since there are observed effects that can be related to shocks and not necessarily to the sheath region we expect that the physical mechanisms governing the interaction with GCRs in these two regions are different. We therefore aim to analyse interaction of GCRs with heliospheric shocks only. We approximate the shock by a structure where the magnetic field linearly changes with position within this structure. We assume protons of different energy, different pitch angle and different incoming direction. We also vary the shock parameters such as the magnetic field strength and orientation, as well as the shock thickness. The results demonstrate that protons with higher energies are less likely to be reflected. Also, thicker shocks and shocks with stronger field reflect protons more efficiently.

For better estimating the drag force acting on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and ram-pressure at planets, improved knowledge of the evolution of CME density/mass is highly valuable. We investigate a sample of 29 well observed CME-ICME events, for which we determine the de-projected 3D mass (STEREO-A and -B data), and the CME volume using GCS modeling (STEREO, SoHO). Expanding the volume to 1AU distance, we derive the density and compare the results to in-situ proton density measurements separately for the ICME sheath and magnetic structure. A fair agreement between calculated and measured density is derived for the magnetic structure as well for the sheath if taking into account mass pile up of solar wind plasma. We give evidence and observational assessment that during the interplanetary propagation of a CME 1) the magnetic structure has rather constant mass and 2) the sheath region at the front of the driver is formed from piled-up mass that is rather depending on the solar wind density ahead of the CME, than on the CME speed.

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head-on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modelling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modelling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (ForbMod). We find a reasonable agreement of the ForbMod model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modelled FDs reflect well the CME evolution., 40 pages, 11 figures, accepted in Solar Physics

Statistical relationship between major flares and the associated CMEs during rising phases of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are studied. Totally more than 6000 and 10,000 CMEs were observed by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) during 23rd [May 1996–June 2002] and 24th [December 2008–December 2014] solar cycles, respectively. In particular, we studied the relationship between properties of flares and CMEs using the limb events (longitude 70–85°) to avoid projection effects of CMEs and partial occultation of flares that occurred near 90°. After selecting a sample of limb flares, we used certain spatial and temporal constraints to find the flare-CME pairs. Using these constraints, we compiled 129 events in Solar Cycle 23 and 92 events in Solar Cycle 24. We compared the flare-CME relationship in the two solar cycles and no significant differences are found between the two cycles. We only found out that the CME mean width was slightly larger and the CME mean acceleration was slightly higher in cycle 24, and that there was somewhat a better relation between flare flux and CME deceleration in cycle 24 than in cycle 23.

In this paper we analyze a set of 27 fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed during the period January 2010 – December 2013 in Solar Cycle 24. The arrivals of interplanetary shocks and CMEs at 1 AU are found from OMNI spacecraft high resolution data and their travel times are compared with Empirical Shock Arrival (ESA; Gopalswamy et al. in Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289, 2005) and Drag Based Model (DBM; Vrsnak et al. in Solar Phys. 285, 295, 2013). The analysis of the transit time, deceleration, and drag parameter is used to examine the role of the solar-wind characteristics in the dynamics of ICMEs. The obtained ICME parameters (deceleration, drag parameter) are compared with the decelerated events (34 of 91 events in Solar Cycle 23) from the study of Manoharan et al. (J. Geophy. Res. 109, A06109, 2004). The interplanetary (IP) deceleration shows similar trend between the cycles. Though the Cycle 24 has weak solar wind, it does not affect the arrival time behavior. It is concluded that the solar-wind behavior is considered to be the same in Cycles 23 and 24 for ICMEs. The IP drag parameter is linearly correlated with CME initial speed. The p-value between CME speed and drag parameter suggests that they are highly significant. The important result of the study is that the solar wind showed a similar kind of drag effect for the propagating CMEs in both cycles.

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is an analytical model that predicts the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on certain initial parameters such as CME launch speed, background solar wind speed and empirically derived drag parameter. DBM uses a CME cone geometry that includes CME’s angular half-width and longitude of CME source region as additional input parameters. The main advantage of DBM is a very short computational time (

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagating in the heliosphere are exposed to a drag force due to the ambient solar wind. Mass pile-up in interplanetary space can have strong effects on the drag force, and with that on the CME propagation time and energy input to the magnetosphere. For a sample of well observed events, we determine the de-projected 3D mass and its evolution up to a distance range of about 15Rs using combined STEREO- SECCHI COR1 and COR2 data, for which no pile-up at the CME front is found (see also Bein et al., 2013). Applying the GCS forward fitting model (Thernisien et al., 2006, 2009) on COR2 data, we obtain the volume of the CMEs. Working under the assumption that the CME mass is constant beyond 15Rs and that the CME undergoes self-similar expansion, we estimate the CME density at the distance of 1AU. The results are compared to in-situ proton density data measured for the associated ICME’s sheath and magnetic structure for which we derive a trend towards a mass increase at the CME front.

The focus is on the physical background and comprehension of the origin and the heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which can cause most severe geomagnetic disturbances. The paper considers mainly the analytical modelling, providing useful insight into the nature of ICMEs, complementary to that provided by numerical MHD models. It is concentrated on physical processes related to the origin of CMEs at the Sun, their heliospheric propagation, up to the effects causing geomagnetic perturbations. Finally, several analytical and statistical forecasting tools for space weather applications are described.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), caused by large-scale eruptions of the coronal magnetic field, often are accompanied by a more localized energy release in the form of flares, as a result of dissipative magnetic-field reconfiguration. Morphology and evolution of such flares, also denoted as dynamical flares are often explained as a consequence of reconnection of the arcade magnetic field, taking place below the erupting magnetic flux rope. A close relationship of the CME acceleration and the flare energy release is evidenced by various statistical correlations between parameters describing CMEs and flares, as well as by the synchronization of the CME acceleration phase with the impulsive phase of the associated flare. Such behavior implies that there must be a feedback relation between the dynamics of the CME and the flare-associated reconnection process. From the theoretical standpoint, magnetic reconnection affects the CME dynamics in several ways. First, it reduces the tension of the overlying arcade magnetic field and increases the magnetic pressure below the flux rope, and in this way enhances the CME acceleration. Furthermore, it supplies the poloidal magnetic flux to the flux rope, which helps sustaining the electric current in the rope and prolonging the action of the driving Lorentz force to large distances. The role of these processes, directly relating solar flares and CMEs, is illustrated by employing a simple model, where the erupting structure is represented by a curved flux rope anchored at both sides in the dense/inert photosphere, being subject to the kink and torus instability. It is shown that in most strongly accelerated ejections, where values on the order of 10km s–2 are attained, the poloidal flux supplied to the erupting rope has to be several times larger than was the initial flux. (© 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

The largest geomagnetic storm so far, called 2015 St. Patrick's Day event, in the solar cycle 24 was produced by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) originating on 15 March 2015. It was an initially west-oriented CME and expected to only cause a weak geomagnetic disturbance. Why did this CME finally cause such a large geomagnetic storm? We try to find some clues by investigating its propagation from the Sun to 1 AU. First, we reconstruct the CME's kinematic properties in the corona from the SOHO and Solar Dynamics Observatory imaging data with the aid of the graduated cylindrical shell model. It is suggested that the CME propagated to the west ˜33°±10° away from the Sun-Earth line with a speed of about 817 km s-1 before leaving the field of view of the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) C3 camera. A magnetic cloud (MC) corresponding to this CME was measured in situ by the Wind spacecraft 2 days after the CME left LASCO's field of view. By applying two MC reconstruction methods, we infer the configuration of the MC as well as some kinematic information, which implies that the CME possibly experienced an eastward deflection on its way to 1 AU. However, due to the lack of observations from the STEREO spacecraft, the CME's kinematic evolution in interplanetary space is not clear. In order to fill this gap, we utilize numerical MHD simulation, drag-based CME propagation model (DBM) and the model for CME deflection in interplanetary space (DIPS) to recover the propagation process, especially the trajectory, of the CME from 30RS to 1 AU under the constraints of the derived CME's kinematics near the Sun and at 1 AU. It is suggested that the trajectory of the CME was deflected toward the Earth by about 12°, consistent with the implication from the MC reconstruction at 1 AU. This eastward deflection probably contributed to the CME's unexpected geoeffectiveness by pushing the center of the initially west-oriented CME closer to the Earth.

An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last $\sim150$ years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-known aa index and on geomagnetic parameters described in the accompanying paper (Vennerstrom et al., Solar Phys. in this issue, 2016, hereafter Paper I). This part of the analysis focuses on associating and characterizing the active regions (sunspot groups) that are most likely linked to these major geomagnetic storms. For this purpose, we used detailed sunspot catalogs as well as solar images and drawings from 1868 to 2010. We have systematically collected the most pertinent sunspot parameters back to 1868, gathering and digitizing solar drawings from different sources such as the Greenwich archives, and extracting the missing sunspot parameters. We present a detailed statistical analysis of the active region parameters (sunspots, flares) relative to the geomagnetic parameters developed in Paper I. In accordance with previous studies, but focusing on a much larger statistical sample, we find that the level of the geomagnetic storm is highly correlated to the size of the active regions at the time of the flare and correlated with the size of the flare itself. We also show that the origin at the Sun is most often a complex active region that is also most of the time close to the central meridian when the event is identified at the Sun. Because we are dealing with extremely severe storms, and not the usual severe storm sample, there is also a strong correlation between the size of the linked active region, the estimated transit speed, and the level of the geomagnetic event. In addition, we confirm that the geomagnetic events studied here and the associated events at the Sun present a low probability of occurring at low sunspot number value and are associated mainly with the maximum and descending part of the solar cycle.

Predicting transit times of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard for human technology. We used a neural network to analyse transit times for 153 events with only two input parameters: initial velocity of the CME, $v$, and Central Meridian Distance, CMD, of its associated flare. We found that transit time dependence on $v$ is showing a typical drag-like pattern in the solar wind. The results show that the speed at which acceleration by drag changes to deceleration is $v\approx$500 km s$^{-1}$. Transit times are also found to be shorter for CMEs associated with flares on the western hemisphere than those originating on the eastern side of the Sun. We attribute this difference to the eastward deflection of CMEs on their path to 1 AU. The average error of the NN prediction in comparison to observations is $\approx$12 hours which is comparable to other studies on the same subject.

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $\gamma$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed., Comment: accepted for publication in ApJL

We performed 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations showing the propagation of fast-mode MHD waves of different initial amplitudes and their interaction with a coronal hole (CH), using our newly developed numerical code. We find that this interaction results in, first, the formation of reflected, traversing, and transmitted waves (collectively, secondary waves) and, second, in the appearance of stationary features at the CH boundary. Moreover, we observe a density depletion that is moving in the opposite direction of the incoming wave. We find a correlation between the initial amplitude of the incoming wave and the amplitudes of the secondary waves as well as the peak values of the stationary features. Additionally, we compare the phase speed of the secondary waves and the lifetime of the stationary features to observations. Both effects obtained in the simulation, the evolution of secondary waves, as well as the formation of stationary fronts at the CH boundary, strongly support the theory that coronal waves are fast-mode MHD waves.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt., 65 pages, 8 figures, accepted by Space Science Reviews

We used our newly developed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code to perform 2.5D simulations of a fast-mode MHD wave interacting with coronal holes (CH) of varying Alfv\'en speed which result from assuming different CH densities. We find that this interaction leads to effects like reflection, transmission, stationary fronts at the CH boundary and the formation of a density depletion that moves in the opposite direction to the incoming wave. We compare these effects with regard to the different CH densities and present a comprehensive analysis of morphology and kinematics of the associated secondary waves. We find that the density value inside the CH influences the phase speed as well as the amplitude values of density and magnetic field for all different secondary waves. Moreover, we observe a correlation between the CH density and the peak values of the stationary fronts at the CH boundary. The findings of reflection and transmission on the one hand and the formation of stationary fronts caused by the interaction of MHD waves with CHs on the other hand, strongly support the theory that large scale disturbances in the corona are fast-mode MHD waves.

The mechanism based on the global electric circuit (GEC) flowing vertically from the iono- sphere to the Earth’s surface could potentially provide the link between the solar modulated energetic particles and Earth’s weather and climate. Cosmic ray (CR) induced atmospheric ionization modulates the vertical current density (Jz) and introduces the changes in GEC that could alter the microphysical properties of the clouds. Due to the complexity and scale of the GEC and its feedbacks, possible implications and importance of this mechanism are still mostly unknown. One of the possible feedbacks to GEC alteration could be the pro- cess of storm invigoration and occurrence of extratropical cyclones. Using 6-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) fields from the ERA-Interim data, extratropical cyclones are identified by tracking their low-pressure centers. Daily timescale super-positional epoch (composite) anal- ysis is performed to analyze the frequency and strength of cyclones during the short- term reductions in CR flux or so-called Forbush decrease events in the last three solar cycles (1979 - 2015). In order to test the significance of the results the robust Monte Carlo significance testing were employed to avoid the possible false positives that may be obtained with stan- dard statistical tests (e.g. t-test). We don’t find a significant response in the frequency or strength of extratropical cyclones to changes in CR flux during the whole analysis period.

We present an analytical diffusion-expansion Forbush decrease (FD) model ForbMod which is based on the widely used approach of the initially empty, closed magnetic structure (i.e. flux rope) which fills up slowly with particles by perpendicular diffusion. The model is restricted to explain only the depression caused by the magnetic structure of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). We use remote CME observations and a 3D reconstruction method (the Graduated Cylindrical Shell method) to constrain initial boundary conditions of the FD model and take into account CME evolutionary properties by incorporating flux rope expansion. Several flux rope expansion modes are considered, which can lead to different FD characteristics. In general, the model is qualitatively in agreement with observations, whereas quantitative agreement depends on the diffusion coefficient and the expansion properties (interplay of the diffusion and the expansion). A case study was performed to explain the FD observed 2014 May 30. The observed FD was fitted quite well by ForbMod for all expansion modes using only the diffusion coefficient as a free parameter, where the diffusion parameter was found to correspond to expected range of values. Our study shows that in general the model is able to explain the global properties of FD caused by FR and can thus be used to help understand the underlying physics in case studies., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures

We study the properties of 115 coronal holes in the time range from August 2010 to March 2017, the peak velocities of the corresponding high‐speed streams as measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU, and the corresponding changes of the Kp index as marker of their geoeffectiveness. We find that the peak velocities of high‐speed streams depend strongly on both the areas and the co‐latitudes of their solar source coronal holes with regard to the heliospheric latitude of the satellites. Therefore, the co‐latitude of their source coronal hole is an important parameter for the prediction of the high‐speed stream properties near the Earth. We derive the largest solar wind peak velocities normalized to the coronal hole areas for coronal holes located near the solar equator and that they linearly decrease with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes. For coronal holes located at latitudes ≳60°, they turn statistically to zero, indicating that the associated high‐speed streams have a high chance to miss the Earth. Similarly, the Kp index per coronal hole area is highest for the coronal holes located near the solar equator and strongly decreases with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes. We interpret these results as an effect of the three‐dimensional propagation of high‐speed streams in the heliosphere; that is, high‐speed streams arising from coronal holes near the solar equator propagate in direction toward and directly hit the Earth, whereas solar wind streams arising from coronal holes at higher solar latitudes only graze or even miss the Earth., Key Points The peak velocity of high‐speed streams measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU depends on the area and co‐latitude of the source coronal holesAnalogously, the peak Kp index caused by the high‐speed stream depends on the area and co‐latitude of the source coronal holesWe interpret these findings as a result of the three‐dimensional propagation of high‐speed streams in the heliosphere

Forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arrival is one of the major tasks for opera- tional space weather services. The Drag- based Model (DBM) with CME cone geometry is an analytical model that predicts the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion that depends on the CME launch speed, background solar wind speed and drag parameter gamma which is derived empirically. The main advantage of DBM is very short computational time (<< 1s) compared to the numerical models (e.g. ENLIL). Recently developed Drag- Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate a distribution and significance of DBM results. Using such approach, DBEM can determine the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quan- tify the prediction uncertainties and calculate the forecast confidence intervals. To provide the real- time CME forecast to various users worldwide, DBEM web on-line application was developed. Using a simple web interface, user can enter all input parameters and uncertain- ties to get CME arrival time and speed distributions in very short time, where up to 100 000 DBM runs can be performed in less than one minute.

The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earth's orbit (1 AU) to Mars (˜1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related to ICMEs and their shock fronts causes the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be detected as a reduction of galactic cosmic rays measured on ground. We have used galactic cosmic ray (GCR) data from in situ measurements at Earth, from both STEREO A and STEREO B as well as GCR measurements by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument on board Mars Science Laboratory on the surface of Mars. A set of ICME events has been selected during the periods when Earth (or STEREO A or STEREO B) and Mars locations were nearly aligned on the same side of the Sun in the ecliptic plane (so-called opposition phase). Such lineups allow us to estimate the ICMEs' transit times between 1 and 1.5 AU by estimating the delay time of the corresponding Forbush decreases measured at each location. We investigate the evolution of their propagation speeds before and after passing Earth's orbit and find that the deceleration of ICMEs due to their interaction with the ambient solar wind may continue beyond 1 AU. We also find a substantial variance of the speed evolution among different events revealing the dynamic and diverse nature of eruptive solar events. Furthermore, the results are compared to simulation data obtained from two CME propagation models, namely the Drag-Based Model and ENLIL plus cone model.

Studies of the relationship between solar radio bursts and CMEs are essential for understanding of the nature of type II bursts. In this study, we examine the type II solar radio burst recorded on 16 March 2016 by the Learmonth radio spectrograph and compare its characteristics with the kinematics of the associated CMEs observed by STEREO and SOHO spacecraft. The burst showed a well-defined band-split, which was used to estimate the magnetic field strength in the solar corona. The magnetic field decreases from ≈ 4 G at R ≈ 2.6 R ⊙ to 0.62 G at R ≈ 3.77 R ⊙ depending on the coronal electron density model employed. We found that two CMEs occurred successively in a 4-h interval. During this interval, a type II radio burst occurred, lasting for about 10 min. Tracking of the shock that produced type II burst and comparison with the CMEs heights as observed by STEREO and SOHO spacecraft help us to deduce the driver of the shock. According to the analysis, the type II burst occurrence was associated with the interaction of the shock driven by the second CME with a streamer located south of the first CME, since that the type II band-split significantly increased during the shock-streamer interaction. Our results show that the analysis of the type II burst band-split supplemented by the coronagraphic observations of the corona is an important tool for the understanding of the coronal eruptive processes.

CME-driven shocks cause a decrease in cosmic ray flux. This effect is called Forbush decrease (Fd). We assume a linearly changing magnetic field component inside the shock and write the corresponding equations of motion. Solving equations numerically and varying different parameters, such as kinetic energy and velocity components of the particle, or the change of magnetic field component and shock width, gives us pitch angles for which particles are reflected. Integrating over velocity space gives the amplitude of Forbush decrease for a given change of magnetic field.

We study the relation between remote observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), their associated solar flares and short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux (so called Forbush decreases). Statistical relations be- tween Forbush decrease magnitude and several CME/flare parameters are examined. In general we find that For- bush decrease magnitude is larger for faster CMEs with larger apparent width, which is associated with stronger flares that originate close to the center of the solar disk and are (possibly) involved in a CME-CME interaction. The statistical relations are quantified and employed to forecast expected Forbush decrease magnitude range based on the selected remote solar observations of the CME and associated solar flare. Several verification measures are used to evaluate the forecast method. We find that the forecast is most reliable in predicting whether or not a CME will produce a Forbush decrease with a magnitude >3 %. The main advantage of the method is that it provides an early prediction, 1-4 days in advance. Based on the presented research, an online forecast tool was developed (Forbush Decrease Forecast Tool, FDFT) available at Hvar Observatory web page: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/FDFT/fdft.php. We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability“ and of European social fond under the project “PoKRet”.