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17 results on '"Bognanni, Mark"'

4. Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model

Author

Bognanni, Mark, Hanley, Doug, Kolliner, Daniel, and Mitman, Kurt

Subjects
E1, economic policy, I18, H0, ddc:330, COVID-19, Econ-SIR, epidemics
Abstract

Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus's spread and increase economic activity.

Published
2020

5. An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting

Author

Bognanni, Mark and Young, Tristan

Subjects
Inflation (Economics) -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys, Consumer price indexes -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys, Consumption (Economics) -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys, Market trend/market analysis, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Business, general, Business, Economics
Abstract

The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure's predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices., One of the timeliest inflation indicators available is the price index released as part of the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report on Business, which we will refer to as the ISMPI. [...]

Published
2018

16. Does GDI data change our understanding of the business cycle?

Author

Bognanni, Mark and Garciga, Christian

Subjects
Business cycles, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Business, Business, regional
Abstract

The Bureau of Economic Analysis constructs two different measures of aggregate output: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). As a matter of accounting, the expenditure-side GDP measure [...]

Published
2016

17. US fiscal policy: recent trends in historical context

Author

Bognanni, Mark and Millington, Sara

Subjects
Government spending policy, Public finance, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Business, Business, regional
Abstract

Since the Great Recession, total government spending has behaved abnormally both in its greater volatility and in its slow growth. Over this period, a secular trend in the composition of [...]

Published
2015

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