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The Government of Indonesia and FAO have recognized the need for thorough analysis and modelling of Indonesia’s food systems to support food systems transformation efforts in the country. This is needed to provide a better understanding of the governance context in food systems, including the political economy dynamics influencing performance, as well as to identify synergies and trade-offs across different policy goals and optimal policy mixes for achieving multiple policy objectives. In this regard, FAO facilitated a project to pilot an innovative approach to modelling for food systems transformation. This modelling approach was developed and implemented by a team of researchers from IFPRI, IIASA, IISD and Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel. It makes use of three different economic models to generate insights that can assist Indonesian policymakers in developing technically sound and politically feasible policy interventions for food systems transformation. This report provides context for food systems transformation in Indonesia and describes the overall modelling approach before synthesizing the results of the individual modelling activities and distilling these into the overall findings of the modelling. It concludes with implications from these findings for policymaking for food systems transformation in Indonesia and some suggestions for next steps. The results of this modelling and the insights drawn from these results are expected to support efforts to translate Indonesia’s commitments on food systems transformation into concrete policy interventions and to inform medium- and long-term development planning by the Indonesian Government.

The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors.

The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (<1%)—at the cost of additional losses of natural lands by 2050 (up to 2 Mt). We also show that considering dietary shifts associated with urbanization increases rice consumption, production (+8.0%), trade (up to +2 Mt of required import) and agricultural methane emissions (up to +12 MtCO2-equivalent yr–1), thereby underscoring the need for a systems approach in future sustainability studies.

As Africa is facing multiple challenges related to food security, frameworks integrating production and availability are urgent for policymaking. Attention should be given not only to gradual socio-economic and climatic changes but also to their temporal variability. Here we present an integrated framework that allows one to assess the impacts of socio-economic development, gradual climate change and climate anomalies. We apply this framework to rice production and consumption in Africa whereby we explicitly account for the continent’s dependency on imported rice. We show that socio-economic development dictates rice availability, whereas climate change has only minor effects in the long term and is predicted not to amplify supply shocks. Still, rainfed-dominated or self-producing regions are sensitive to local climatic anomalies, while trade dominates stability in import-dependent regions. Our study suggests that facilitating agricultural development and limiting trade barriers are key in relieving future challenges to rice availability and stability.

As part of an effort to inform food system transformation in Indonesia and build on analytical and modelling work by BAPPENAS, FAO and others, this report contains the model description, business as usual trajectory and stylized scenarios coming from the GLOBIOM model. The report takes a food system approach where stylized scenarios follow three main policy levers, namely the healthy diets, socio-economic sustainability of agri-food supply and environmental sustainability: 1. Healthy diets – In line with the RPJMN goal of improving the quality of Indonesian diets, this axis reflects a transition towards healthier diets in Indonesia through reducing food insecurity and increasing the consumption of products that are key to a healthy diet. 2. Socioeconomic sustainability of agri-food supply – In line with the RPJMN goal of increasing food availability, this axis reflects a transition towards increased and more sustainable agricultural production that meets the needs of a growing population by increasing local agricultural production and increasing the share of domestic production in national consumption. 3. Environmental sustainability – In line with the RPJMN goals of strengthening the environment, improving climate resilience, and promoting low carbon development, this axis reflects a transition towards environmental sustainability, achieved through policies that constrain land use and reduce food loss and waste, thereby reducing GHG emissions, reducing deforestation and preserving biodiversity. One or two policy interventions are designed along each of the axes and compared in terms of the main flagship indicators: percentage undernourished, share of food calories produced domestically (%), total value added from agriculture, forest cover and GHG emissions. The scenarios modeled are: (1) ‘POU’: A target to increase food consumption towards reducing undernourishment to 2.5% by 2030 combined with a transition towards healthier diets; (2) ‘INT’: An intensification sce

The livestock system in Europe relies on a complex holistic equilibrium that is the outcome of an interplay of demand, market, crop production, livestock production, land use, water availability, and other factors. When modeling future scenarios of water consumption by livestock systems, the most suitable tools result from the interconnectivity of growth models, economic models, and climate models. We integrated the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate growth model (EPIC), animal-level model (RUMINANT), economic model (Global Biosphere Management Model, GLOBIOM), EURO-CORDEX climate models, and regression models. This study developed novel livestock production scenarios for individual regions of the Czech Republic with estimations of the categories of livestock that have been bred during the last 20 years and will be bred in the future and what their water consumption will be, both throughout the year and in particular seasons. First, the numbers of farm animals, namely, cattle, pigs, sheep, horses, goats, and poultry in 2002–2020 were evaluated, and their numbers were predicted for the following years until 2050. Second, livestock water consumption per region was determined based on the number of livestock individuals. Third, changes in the amount of water consumed by livestock per year in individual regions in 2050 compared to 2005 were estimated.

Research data supporting the study "Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives". It contains: 1) merged.gdx - data derived from the original scenario database 2) map.csv - mapping of food commodities to food groups used for analysis 3) manure.csv - results on nitrogen input to cropland and N crop fertilization from manure 4) AgMIP_regions.shp - shape file used to make maps 5) Paper_visuals_NCOM.R - R script to analyze and visualize the data. It reproduces the main figures in the paper and the appendix   last tested for R Studio 2022.12.0 Build 353, Release (7d165dcf, 2022-12-03) for Windows 10 Pro, 64-bit operating system Instructions: The R code, file 4, reads in files 1, 2 and 3 and generates figures, tables and maps. The directories (line 50 and 58) need to be updated to the location of the data (the current folder).

Concurrent with an extensive population growth, the African continent has experienced a vast urbanization trend over the last decades. In 2000, around 35% of the population resided in urban areas. By 2020, this share has increased to around 44% and is projected to increase even further by 2050 following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Besides an important effect on local land use through urban expansion, this also affects food systems by shifting dietary patterns away from traditional diets towards imported or convenient goods. This is particularly the case for rice, which is predominantly imported from Southeast Asia, India, or Pakistan, and is gaining in popularity in African urban diets because of the low effort needed for cooking or storage – giving it a strong advantage over other staple crops. This dietary shift will alter trade dynamics, increase the pressure on local resources such as land, water, and fertilizer use, and subsequently also on biodiversity. In studies investigating the influence of urbanization, either the direct effect of urban expansion on land cover or the effects of dietary changes on demands are investigated, but rarely a combination or comparison of both. Particularly in impact studies or applications that focus on the synergy between water, land, and food-related issues, the dimension of human behavior, such as consumer preferences, is often overlooked. In this study, we provide an initial projection of the expected future effects of both sprawl and shifting preferences for rice caused by urbanization on rice availability, land – and input use, rice-specific emissions, and trade dynamics. By combining micro-level data from household surveys stemming from the Living Standards Measurements Study (LSMS) with the partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) at an African scale, we were able to identify the relative contribution of land cover effects stemming directly from urban expansion and indirectly

We will present approaches to modeling wildfire dynamics using the IIASA’s wildFire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM). FLAM operates with a daily time step and uses mechanistic algorithms to parametrize the impacts of climate, human activities, and fuel availability on wildfire probabilities, frequencies, and burned areas. Validation on historical data and future projections under climate change scenarios will be discussed at various scales and resolutions. We will present results for the following case-studies: (i) projections of global burned areas driven by climate change scenarios until 2100; (ii) modeling burned areas and adaptation options in Europe; (iii) modeling burned areas and their feedback to land-use change in Indonesia with a particular emphasis on extreme fires due the impacts of El Niño southern oscillation using historical data and the delta approach for future scenarios; (iv) regional variability and driving forces behind forest fires in Sweden. Our results support international analyses that, irrespective of changes in management, it is evident that climate change is very likely to increase the frequency and impact of wildland fires in the coming decades.

Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of the climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must account for the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area, agricultural production losses, and land use decisions, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw significant production losses of palm oil – a product imported by the EU chiefly as a biofuel – surpassing 7%. We explored analogous events under three warming conditions and two palm oil sector adaptation scenarios using two storylines: ensemble mean climate and high aridity conditions. We employed a model chain consisting of IIASA's wildfire climate impacts and adaptation model (FLAM) and the partial equilibrium global biosphere management model (GLOBIOM) to predict burned area and assess resultant production losses in the oil palm sector in Indonesia. To quantify the changes in burned area, we applied a delta approach based on the different degrees of global warming that can be expected. To define fire-induced oil palm losses and associated economic impacts, we combined the burned areas from FLAM with land-use change and productivity estimates from GLOBIOM. We found that the total burned area and production loss increased across the projections and climate warming by up to 25%, with only minor differences between storylines. By varying characteristics of regional climate change features, we found that these results are spatially explicit and robust across projections. Our results highlight the importance of including future warming and drought conditions in predicting oil palm losses and land use decision making. They l

While soybeans are among the most consumed crops in the world, most of its production lies in the US, Brazil, and Argentina. The concentration of soybean growing regions in the Americas renders the supply chain vulnerable to regional disruptions. In 2012, anomalous hot and dry conditions occurring simultaneously in these regions led to low soybean yields, which drove global soybean prices to all-time records. In this study, we explore climate change impacts on simultaneous extreme crop failures as the one from 2012. We develop a hybrid model, coupling a process-based crop model with a machine learning model, to improve the simulation of soybean production. We assess the frequency and magnitude of events with similar or higher impacts than 2012 under different future scenarios, evaluating anomalies both with respect to present day and future conditions to disentangle the impacts of (changing) climate variability from the long-term mean trends. We find long-term trends in mean climate increase the frequency of 2012 analogs by 11–16 times and the magnitude by 4–15% compared to changes in climate variability only depending on the global climate scenario. Conversely, anomalies like the 2012 event due to changes in climate variability show an increase in frequency in each country individually, but not simultaneously across the Americas. We deduce that adaptation of the crop production practice to the long-term mean trends of climate change may considerably reduce the future risk of simultaneous soybean losses across the Americas.

Developing and integrating agricultural markets may be key to addressing Africa’s sustainability challenges. By modelling trade costs from farm gate to potential import markets across eight African regions, we investigate the impact of individual components of continental free trade and the complementary role of domestic agricultural development through increased market access for farmers and agricultural intensification. We find that free trade would increase intra-African agricultural trade sixfold by 2030 but—since it does not address local supply constraints—outside food imports and undernourishment would reduce only marginally. Agricultural development could almost eliminate undernourishment in Africa by 2050 at only a small cost of increased global greenhouse gas emissions. While continental free trade will be enabled in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area, aligning this with local agricultural development policies is crucial to increase intra-African trade gains, promote food security and achieve climate objectives.

Food stability – or the lack thereof has caused several issues on global food security in the past. Prime examples are the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine-Russian war, and the 2008 African food crisis. Meanwhile, the occurrence of extreme meteorological events has been increasing rapidly (droughts, floods, …), resulting in substantial harvest losses putting food security under pressure with strong indications that these will become even more prevalent under climate change. Yet, the amount of studies assessing food stability or potential climate change effects is scarce – hindering purposeful policymaking. This makes a methodological framework to assess food stability urgent.

Socio-economic and environmental impacts of gradual climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries calculated using the GLOBIOM model

Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy.

Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new syst

Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new syst

Stochastic agro-economic model GLOBIOM is used to demonstrate how best to design and evaluate the CAP’s financial and structural measures, both individually and jointly, in the face of inherent uncertainty and risk. The model accounts for plausible shocks simultaneously and derives measures that are robust against all shock scenarios; it can thus help avoid the irreversibility and sunk costs that occur in unexpected scenarios.To allow adequate agricultural production, we show that the distribution of CAP funds needs to account for exposure to risks, security targets, and the synergies between policy measures, including production, trade, storage, and irrigation technologies.

This dataset contains a map of suitability for industrial-scale oil palm cultivation for Indonesia. This dataset can be accessed and displayed using any standard GIS software. It is available in GeoTIFF format and unprojected WGS 84 Datum with a cell size of 0.08333 degrees (approximately one kilometer).

This paper aims to better understand the context in which smallholder farms operate. The study has developed a new methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies that combines household and macro-level data (household survey, agricultural census and land cover data) to analyze food security and poverty, to enable an analysis that is both farm-system specific and spatially explicit. Using this methodology to analyze the poverty and food security situation of Ethiopian smallholder farms, the study has developed farming-system- and location-specific poverty and food security indicators which can provide guidance for more targeted strategies to reduce rural poverty.

Recently, consumers’ awareness regarding food production has increased, leading to a growing focus on shorter food supply chains and regional or local food systems. In the livestock sector, these developments are closely related to a regionalization of feed production. At the same time, a low self-sufficiency rate in protein feed is being reported for many European countries. In this paper, we analyze market impacts resulting from a complete switch to regionally produced feed in the European livestock sector. We simulate a shortening of feed supply chains in European livestock production using a large-scale agricultural sector model. Livestock production was restricted to feed that can be produced within the same EU member state. Our work represents a first step towards a simulation of regional or local food systems. The results reveal large increases in the prices of livestock products in Europe due to the shortening of feed supply chains. This is a result of a significant increase in livestock production costs. The ability to supply livestock products with regionally produced feed in the EU would be improved through a reduced consumption of livestock products.

Eind 2008 sloten de provincie gelderland en Waterbedrijf Vitens een overeenkomst waarin zij afspraken maakten over maatregelen gericht op verdrogingsbestrijding en grondwaterbescherming van een aantal drinkwaterwinningen. De overeenkomst loopt tot 2015. Vitens en de provincie Gelderland investeren hiervoor gezamenlijk in totaal 15 miljoen euro