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Paper# 19281

Climate change and extreme weather events lead to short‐term variability and shocks to agricultural supply, impacting the entire food system and posing threats to food security. Furthermore, instability in the food system may disturb other systems such as energy and water. Studies into the interdependent demand and supply relationships in these systems require a framework that can take stock of both the climate‐induced deviations between expected and observed prices and yields, the impacts on the food commodity market, as well as different adaptation mechanisms that may serve as market stabilization policies, such as storage and different trade‐liberalization mechanisms. This study develops a non‐stationary model for market stabilization policy design, called GLOBIOM‐X. GLOBIOM-X aims to analyze the impact of climate‐induced yield shocks on market stability and how market instability can be contained through the adaptation mechanisms of stockholding and trade liberalization. The model is based on the bio‐economic land use model GLOBIOM. GLOBIOM‐X runs in annual time steps and can address agricultural land use from the producers’ perspective based on expected prices. Stockholding is incorporated in the model by allowing producers to temporarily stock their products and consumers to take‐up products from storage facilities. For the assessment of the effectiveness of trade policies and stockholding options in reducing price spikes and improving food availability, shortfalls in production based on realistic weather events have been quantified. Three types of storage scenarios; baseline‐level storage, unlimited storage and storage including intervention prices and a trade reduction and complete trade liberalization scenario are implemented in order to assess their impact on market stability. Results are assessed in terms of their environmental impacts, equality and profitability. Thereby, this paper helps to give insight to what extent different types of policy measures reduce the negative impacts that yield shocks due to extreme events have on the environment, equitability amongst consumer systems and competitiveness. Both storage and trade liberalization help reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, storage facilities may lead to a more equitable food system on the consumer side, whereas trade liberalization leads to more competitiveness in the EU agri-food business.

Smallholder farms are often the focus of strategies to reduce poverty, inequality and hunger. They are also a very diverse group, leading to calls for more context-specific strategies to support smallholder farms. Until recently, a lack of both household and macro-level data prevented policymaking tailored to the context of smallholder farms, i.e. what types of farms at what locations may benefit most from, for example, better irrigation infrastructures, intensification or improved access to markets? Increased effort to collect more information at different scales and scopes enables us to systematically establish the context in which smallholder farms operate. The objective of this study is to combine household survey, agricultural census and land cover data to analyse food security and poverty at the micro (farm) and macro (regional and country) levels. To do so, the study developed a novel methodology that combines different data sources to establish country-wide farm typologies that enable an analysis of poverty and food security that is both farm-system specific and spatially explicit. To test our methodology, we analysed the poverty and food security situation of Ethiopian smallholder farms. Our results show that the combination of activities and agroecological zone largely determined the food security situation of the farm. In terms of poverty, all farms were below the poverty line; in particular, pure livestock farms operating in poor biophysical conditions exhibited low market interactions and high incidence of poverty. The farming-system- and location-specific poverty and food security indicators developed in this study provide guidance for better targeting of policy strategies.

This paper aims to better understand the context in which smallholder farms operate. The study has developed a new methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies that combines household and macro-level data (household survey, agricultural census and land cover data) to analyze food security and poverty, to enable an analysis that is both farm-system specific and spatially explicit. Using this methodology to analyze the poverty and food security situation of Ethiopian smallholder farms, the study has developed farming-system- and location-specific poverty and food security indicators which can provide guidance for more targeted strategies to reduce rural poverty.

EU sustainable food and nutrition security is no sure-fire success. The future ofthe agro-food system is uncertain and subject to different macro-level trends.Previous analysis revealed the role of food system drivers creating challenges andopportunities for dietary and environmental improvements under certain futureconstellations. However, these challenges and opportunities need to be addressed by policies to allow for actual improvements in the sustainabilityperformance of EU food systems, for people, planet and profit. In this deliverable,an assessment and pre-test of potential policy measures is carried out. The policyanalyses are contrasted to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario with currenttrends of food system drivers. We apply the SUSFANS modelling toolbox in orderto test relevant policy measures in four distinct aqua-agro-food policy sectors.Regarding health and nutrition of the EU population, we provide a ranking ofpotential dietary policies and interventions based on their effectiveness,implementation costs and restrictiveness for consumers and producers. Based onthis overview, options for health and nutrition policy are designed containing amixture of different policy instruments. These apply – in line with the allocationof policy responsibilities in the EU - at the level of individual member states andnot at the realms of an EU policy. In the context of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP), we assess the impact of a livestock density restriction on EU Agricultural areas. Results indicate a reduction of soil nutrient surpluses (-9 to -13%) and of greenhouse gas emissions (-9%) at EU average and considerably stronger in the livestock density and over-fertilization hotspots. Trade openness restricts the impact on food consumption and dietary change of EU consumers. Three Common Fisheries Policies (CFP) are tested with the newly developed fish modules of GLOBIOM and CAPRI: Directing capture in EU waters to levels that keep fish stocks at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), or at the maximum economic yield (MEY), and the implementation of national aquaculture growth plans composed by EU member states. Our results show limited policy impacts due to the rlatively small size of the EU fish producing sector with some trade butlimited consumption changes. Finally, different storage policies are tested with the new short-term volatility module of GLOBIOM. The scenarios reveal that storage availability and intervention prices reduce price volatility caused by yield shocks. The assessments illustrate that individual, yet unaligned policy measures can already contribute significantly to reaching sustainable food and nutritionsecurity. On the way to the final foresight assessment extensions are require regarding a) metrics quantifiability, b) the harmonization of metrics computationapproaches, and c) smaller model improvements

Ethiopia’s agricultural sector is highly diverse and subject to change due to different factors such as climate and population growth. Consequently, competition for available land, water, energy, and other inputs increases, posing pressure on the rural population’s livelihoods and food security. It is therefore imperative to analyze farmer’s production choices under these changing circumstances. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies allowing for both a spatial and temporal analysis of the evolution of the agricultural sector, and in particular smallholders' food security and income in Ethiopia. First, household survey data is employed to categorize smallholder farming systems according to their agro-ecological zone, farm size, main activities and degree of intensification. Second, farming systems are extrapolated using a multinomial logit-regression. Resulting combinations of farming-system occurrence and their production activities are harmonized with national statistics and subsequently equipped with the potential to intensify. Compared with other typologies that commonly only focus on the distribution of farming systems, this study fills the typology with data, allowing for the analysis of income and food security over space and time. It is concluded that livestock-oriented systems are less profitable than crop-oriented systems and more prone to food-insecurity. Increased input intensification is one way to reduce pressure on cropland expansion caused by the expected increase in population, but has to go together with other methods to fully alleviate pressure on land and thereby poverty and food insecurity.

In this paper, we analyze the potential impact on producers’ land-use decisions in moving from support payments based on entitlements to a single farm payment (SFP). Further, we then consider a single farm payment with a greening component as part of the 2013 CAP reform. Using data for representative crop farms of different sizes in the Netherlands, we develop a farm-level crop allocation model that is calibrated using positive mathematical programming. We use a two-step calibration method to determine a nonlinear cost function and farm-specific risk aversion coefficients. Not unexpectedly, we find that the 2013 CAP reforms will cause farmers to shift away from crops previously eligible for payments, with the initial shift under the SFP enhanced by the move towards SFP combined with green payment.

This paper analyses the sequence of changes in land used for milk production on dairy farms in the period before, during, and towards the abolishment of milk quotas. Using a unique dataset comprising farm level data of the Netherlands between 1971 and 2011 we estimate two duration models, analysing the time period between changes in case of increases and decreases in dairy land use. The impact of milk quota, socio-economic and production variables on the likelihood of a farm changing his land use are assessed. Results show that quota abolishment will lead to a more dynamic dairy sector.

Volatile output prices lead to a fluctuating shadow price (profitability) of agricultural land, and therefore may impact land use decisions in case of risk-averse behaviour. In this paper we assess the effect of volatile agricultural output prices on agricultural land-use change over the past decade in the Netherlands. Using regional data from 2000 through 2009, the number of hectares of land for 10 land uses was calculated. To determine the joint distribution of agricultural activities, hectares of land for each land use were converted to land share equations. Land share equations were estimated to determine the contribution of increased price volatility to land use change. Results show that larger volatility affects land shares negatively. Producer’s output responses, therefore, were consistently affected by risk-averse behaviour.

We describe and apply a method to determine the net social benefits of science shops. University departments operating as science shops coordinate research projects for individuals or civil society organizations (CSO) lacking the financial means to turn to professional consultancy bureaus. Three cases are analyzed; the science shops atWageningen, Brussels and Eindhoven. After investigation, it appears that under the normal assumptions for the application of CBA, the science shops concerned show positive net social benefits.

The uplands of Northern Vietnam are home to the poorest of the rural poor. Inhabitants of these areas are faced with low agricultural productivity and the ecosystem services such as food production for marginalized populations, biodiversity reservoirs, and watershed regulating functions have been under increasing pressure due to decollectivisation and the following redistribution of the land, liberalization of markets and a rapid population growth. To partly reverse the threat posed to the ecosystem services, we analyzed the impact of alternative schemes on farm revenues that would set aside cultivated land for forest natural re-growth. Using mathematical programming we developed a farm household model in which we investigated scenarios where some land in the sloping area of the catchment is set aside for forest natural re-growth (which aims at restoration of watershed functions), while additional land is made irrigable in the lowland compartment of the farms. In the first part of this thesis we will impose different implementation and compensation schemes for this land set-aside schemes and analyze their effects on both a household as well as a village level. In the second part of this thesis we will analyze the different land set-aside schemes with the help of the theory on Payment for Environmental Services (PES) that examines the cut-off point where farmers will voluntarily set-aside sloping land in order to get more access to water in the bottom valleys. The compensation schemes are analyzed from two perspectives; on the one hand they will improve collective water infrastructures so that more water is made available in the lowlands; on the other hand they will individually reward farm households by allocating new terrace land. The impacts on land use, individual farm revenues, per head revenues and village revenues were analyzed. This led us to conclude that relatively small increases in irrigable land in the lower compartments are necessary to compensate for the revenues lost of land set-aside on the sloping land. Moreover, some of the scenarios comprehend a better wealth distribution among members of the villages. However, this would require some coordination at village or commune levels, and a deliberate choice to help the poorly endowed households.