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Ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of management decisions in applied ecology, including fisheries management and threatened species conservation. These models are high-dimensional, parameter-rich, and nonlinear, yet limited data is available to calibrate them, and they are rarely tested or validated. Consequently, the accuracy of their forecasts, and their utility as decision-support tools is a matter of debate. In this paper, we calibrate ecosystem models to time-series data from 110 different experimental microcosm ecosystems, each containing between three and five interacting species. We then assess how often these calibrated models offer accurate and useful predictions about how the ecosystem will respond to a set of standard management interventions. Our results show that for each timeseries dataset, a large number of very different parameter sets offer equivalent, good fits. However, these calibrated ecosystem models have poor predictive accuracy when forecasting future dynamics and offer ambiguous predictions about how species in the ecosystem will respond to management interventions. Closer inspection reveals that the ecosystem models fail because calibration cannot determine the types of interactions that occur within the ecosystem. Our findings call into question claims that ecosystem modelling can support applied ecological decision-making when they are calibrated against real-world datasets., Comment: 23 pages (main text + supplementary material) 9 figures (main text + supplementary material)

Resilient ecological systems will be better able to maintain their structure and function in the emerging Anthropocene. Estimating the resilience of different systems will therefore provide valuable insight for conservation decision-makers, and is a priority goal of resilience theory. Current estimation methods rely on the accurate parameterisation of ecosystem models, or the identification of important motifs in the structure of the ecological system network. However, both of these methods face significant empirical and theoretical challenges. In this paper, we adapt tools developed for the analysis of biochemical regulatory networks to prove that a form of resilience - robust perfect adaptation - is a property of particular ecological networks, and to explain the specific process by which the ecosystem maintains its resilience. We undertake an exhaustive search for robust perfect adaptation across all possible three-species ecological networks, under a generalised Lotka-Volterra framework. From over 20,000 possible network structures, we identify 23 network structures that are capable of robust perfect adaptation. The resilient properties of these networks provide important insights into the potential mechanisms that could promote resilience in ecosystems, and suggest new avenues for measuring and understanding the property of ecological resilience in larger, more realistic socioecological networks., Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures

We examine four high resolution reflection grating spectrometers (RGS) spectra of the February 2009 outburst of the luminous recurrent nova LMC 2009a. They were very complex and rich in intricate absorption and emission features. The continuum was consistent with a dominant component originating in the atmosphere of a shell burning white dwarf (WD) with peak effective temperature between 810,000 K and a million K, and mass in the 1.2-1.4 M$_\odot$ range. A moderate blue shift of the absorption features of a few hundred km s$^{-1}$ can be explained with a residual nova wind depleting the WD surface at a rate of about 10$^{-8}$ M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$. The emission spectrum seems to be due to both photoionization and shock ionization in the ejecta. The supersoft X-ray flux was irregularly variable on time scales of hours, with decreasing amplitude of the variability. We find that both the period and the amplitude of another, already known 33.3 s modulation, varied within timescales of hours. We compared N LMC 2009a with other Magellanic Clouds novae, including 4 serendipitously discovered as supersoft X-ray sources (SSS) among 13 observed within 16 years after the eruption. The new detected targets were much less luminous than expected: we suggest that they were partially obscured by the accretion disk. Lack of SSS detections in the Magellanic Clouds novae more than 5.5 years after the eruption constrains the average duration of the nuclear burning phase., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

In this manuscript, we consider temporal and spatio-temporal modified Holling-Tanner predator-prey models with predator-prey growth rate as a logistic type, Holling type II functional response and alternative food sources for the predator. From our result of the temporal model, we identify regions in parameter space in which Turing instability in the spatio-temporal model is expected and we show numerical evidence where the Turing instability leads to spatio-temporal periodic solutions. Subsequently, we analyse these instabilities. We use simulations to illustrate the behaviour of both the temporal and spatio-temporal model., Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

We study a predator-prey model with Holling type I functional response, an alternative food source for the predator, and multiple Allee effects on the prey. We show that the model has at most two equilibrium points in the first quadrant, one is always a saddle point while the other can be a repeller or an attractor. Moreover, there is always a stable equilibrium point that corresponds to the persistence of the predator population and the extinction of the prey population. Additionally, we show that when the parameters are varied the model displays a wide range of different bifurcations, such as saddle-node bifurcations, Hopf bifurcations, Bogadonov-Takens bifurcations and homoclinic bifurcations. We use numerical simulations to illustrate the impact changing the predation rate, or the non-fertile prey population, and the proportion of alternative food source have on the basins of attraction of the stable equilibrium point in the first quadrant (when it exists). In particular, we also show that the basin of attraction of the stable positive equilibrium point in the first quadrant is bigger when we reduce the depensation in the model., Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1809.05854, arXiv:1901.01118

The development of astronomy and space science in Africa has grown significantly over the past few years. These advancements make the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals more achievable, and open up the possibility of new beneficial collaborations., Comment: Paper published in Nature Astronomy. Figures 1 and 2 are included in the published version, that can be seen at https://rdcu.be/2oE6

Here we report the recovery of the binary underlying the classical nova of 11 March 1437 A.D. whose age is independently confirmed by proper motion-dating, and show that in the 20th century it exhibits dwarf nova eruptions. The four oldest recovered classical novae are now all dwarf novae. Taken together they strongly suggest that mass transfer rates decrease by an order of magnitude or more in the centuries after a classical nova event, greatly slowing the evolution, and lengthening the lifetimes of these explosive binary stars., Comment: 30 pages, 7 Figures

Models of nova outbursts suggest that an X-ray flash should occur just after hydrogen ignition. However, this X-ray flash has never been observationally confirmed. We present four theoretical light curves of the X-ray flash for two very massive white dwarfs (WDs) of 1.380 and 1.385 M_sun and for two recurrence periods of 0.5 and 1 years. The duration of the X-ray flash is shorter for a more massive WD and for a longer recurrence period. The shortest duration of 14 hours (0.6 days) among the four cases is obtained for the 1.385 M_sun WD with one year recurrence period. In general, a nova explosion is relatively weak for a very short recurrence period, which results in a rather slow evolution toward the optical peak. This slow timescale and the predictability of very short recurrence period novae give us a chance to observe X-ray flashes of recurrent novae. In this context, we report the first attempt, using the Swift observatory, to detect an X-ray flash of the recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a (0.5 or 1 year recurrence period), which resulted in the non-detection of X-ray emission during the period of 8 days before the optical detection. We discuss the impact of these observations on nova outburst theory. The X-ray flash is one of the last frontiers of nova studies and its detection is essentially important to understand the pre-optical-maximum phase. We encourage further observations., Comment: 12 pages, including 9 figures and 3 tables. To appear in the Astrophysical Journal

Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.

The thermal radio emission of novae during outburst enables us to derive fundamental quantities such as the ejected mass, kinetic energy, and density profile of the ejecta. Recent observations with newly-upgraded facilities such as the VLA and e-MERLIN are just beginning to reveal the incredibly complex processes of mass ejection in novae (ejections appear to often proceed in multiple phases and over prolonged timescales). Symbiotic stars can also exhibit outbursts, which are sometimes accompanied by the expulsion of material in jets. However, unlike novae, the long-term thermal radio emission of symbiotics originates in the wind of the giant secondary star, which is irradiated by the hot white dwarf. The effect of the white dwarf on the giant's wind is strongly time variable, and the physical mechanism driving these variations remains a mystery (possibilities include accretion instabilities and time-variable nuclear burning on the white dwarf's surface). The exquisite sensitivity of SKA1 will enable us to survey novae throughout the Galaxy, unveiling statistically complete populations. With SKA2 it will be possible to carry out similar studies in the Magellanic Clouds. This will enable high-quality tests of the theory behind accretion and mass loss from accreting white dwarfs, with significant implications for determining their possible role as Type Ia supernova progenitors. Observations with SKA1-MID in particular, over a broad range of frequencies, but with emphasis on the higher frequencies, will provide an unparalleled view of the physical processes driving mass ejection and resulting in the diversity of novae, whilst also determining the accretion processes and rates in symbiotic stars., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, in proceedings of "Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array", PoS(AASKA14)116, in press

We present the results of an intensive multiwavelength campaign on nova LMC 2012. This nova evolved very rapidly in all observed wavelengths. The time to fall two magnitudes in the V band was only 2 days. In X-rays the super soft phase began 13$\pm$5 days after discovery and ended around day 50 after discovery. During the super soft phase, the \Swift/XRT and \Chandra\ spectra were consistent with the underlying white dwarf being very hot, $\sim$ 1 MK, and luminous, $\sim$ 10$^{38}$ erg s$^{-1}$. The UV, optical, and near-IR photometry showed a periodic variation after the initial and rapid fading had ended. Timing analysis revealed a consistent 19.24$\pm$0.03 hr period in all UV, optical, and near-IR bands with amplitudes of $\sim$ 0.3 magnitudes which we associate with the orbital period of the central binary. No periods were detected in the corresponding X-ray data sets. A moderately high inclination system, $i$ = 60$\pm$10$^{\arcdeg}$, was inferred from the early optical emission lines. The {\it HST}/STIS UV spectra were highly unusual with only the \ion{N}{5} (1240\AA) line present and superposed on a blue continuum. The lack of emission lines and the observed UV and optical continua from four epochs can be fit with a low mass ejection event, $\sim$ 10$^{-6}$ M$_{\odot}$, from a hot and massive white dwarf near the Chandrasekhar limit. The white dwarf, in turn, significantly illuminated its subgiant companion which provided the bulk of the observed UV/optical continuum emission at the later dates. The inferred extreme white dwarf characteristics and low mass ejection event favor nova LMC 2012 being a recurrent nova of the U Sco subclass., Comment: 18 figures, 6 tables (one online only containing all the photometry)

Classical novae are the most common astrophysical thermonuclear explosions, occurring on the surfaces of white dwarf stars accreting gas from companions in binary star systems. Novae typically expel ~10^(-4) solar masses of material at velocities exceeding 1,000 kilometres per second. However, the mechanism of mass ejection in novae is poorly understood, and could be dominated by the impulsive flash of thermonuclear energy, prolonged optically thick winds, or binary interaction with the nova envelope. Classical novae are now routinely detected in gigaelectronvolt gamma-ray wavelengths, suggesting that relativistic particles are accelerated by strong shocks in the ejecta. Here we report high-resolution radio imaging of the gamma-ray-emitting nova V959 Mon. We find that its ejecta were shaped by the motion of the binary system: some gas was expelled rapidly along the poles as a wind from the white dwarf, while denser material drifted out along the equatorial plane, propelled by orbital motion. At the interface between the equatorial and polar regions, we observe synchrotron emission indicative of shocks and relativistic particle acceleration, thereby pinpointing the location of gamma-ray production. Binary shaping of the nova ejecta and associated internal shocks are expected to be widespread among novae, explaining why many novae are gamma-ray emitters., Comment: Author's version of paper appearing in 16 October issue of Nature (8 October online). Also available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13773.html . 30 pages, 7 figures including methods & supplementary information sections

We modelled the late-time {\it Hubble Space Telescope} imaging of RS Ophiuchi with models from Ribeiro et al. (2009), which at the time due to the unknown availability of simultaneous ground-based spectroscopy left some open questions as to the evolution of the expanding nebular from the early to the late time observations. Initial emission line identifications suggest that no forbidden lines are present in the spectra and that the emission lines arising in the region of the WFPC2 F502N images are due to N{\sc ii} and He{\sc i} + Fe{\sc ii}. The best model fit to the spectrum is one where the outer faster moving material expands linearly with time while the inner over-density material either suffered some deceleration or did not change in physical size. The origin of this inner over-density requires further exploration., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Stella Novae: Past and Future Decades, P. A. Woudt & V. A. R. M. Ribeiro (eds), ASPCS 490

Novae, which are the sudden visual brightening triggered by runaway thermonuclear burning on the surface of an accreting white dwarf, are fairly common and bright events. Despite their astronomical significance as nearby laboratories for the study of nuclear burning and accretion phenomena, many aspects of these common stellar explosions are observationally not well-constrained and remain poorly understood. Radio observations, modeling and interpretation can potentially play a crucial role in addressing some of these puzzling issues. In this review on radio studies of novae, we focus on the possibility of testing and improving the nova models with radio observations, and present a current status report on the progress in both the observational front and theoretical developments. We specifically address the issues of accurate estimation of ejecta mass, multi-phase and complex ejection phenomena, and the effect of a dense environment around novae. With highlights of new observational results, we illustrate how radio observations can shed light on some of these long-standing puzzles., Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures. Review article published in the Bulletin of the Astronomical Society of India (BASI) special issue on novae

We present multi-frequency radio observations of the 2010 nova event in the symbiotic binary V407 Cygni, obtained with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array and spanning 1-45 GHz and 17-770 days following discovery. This nova---the first ever detected in gamma rays---shows a radio light curve dominated by the wind of the Mira giant companion, rather than the nova ejecta themselves. The radio luminosity grew as the wind became increasingly ionized by the nova outburst, and faded as the wind was violently heated from within by the nova shock. This study marks the first time that this physical mechanism has been shown to dominate the radio light curve of an astrophysical transient. We do not observe a thermal signature from the nova ejecta or synchrotron emission from the shock, due to the fact that these components were hidden behind the absorbing screen of the Mira wind. We estimate a mass loss rate for the Mira wind of Mdot_w ~ 10^-6 M_sun/yr. We also present the only radio detection of V407 Cyg before the 2010 nova, gleaned from unpublished 1993 archival VLA data, which shows that the radio luminosity of the Mira wind varies by a factor of >~20 even in quiescence. Although V407 Cyg likely hosts a massive accreting white dwarf, making it a candidate progenitor system for a Type Ia supernova, the dense and radially continuous circumbinary material surrounding V407 Cyg is inconsistent with observational constraints on the environments of most Type Ia supernovae., Comment: Resubmitted to ApJ after incorporating referee's comments

The eruption of the recurrent nova U Scorpii on 28 January 2010 is now the all-time best observed nova event. We report 36,776 magnitudes throughout its 67 day eruption, for an average of one measure every 2.6 minutes. This unique and unprecedented coverage is the first time that a nova has any substantial amount of fast photometry. With this, two new phenomena have been discovered: the fast flares in the early light curve seen from days 9-15 (which have no proposed explanation) and the optical dips seen out of eclipse from days 41-61 (likely caused by raised rims of the accretion disk occulting the bright inner regions of the disk as seen over specific orbital phases). The expanding shell and wind cleared enough from days 12-15 so that the inner binary system became visible, resulting in the sudden onset of eclipses and the turn-on of the supersoft X-ray source. On day 15, a strong asymmetry in the out-of-eclipse light points to the existence of the accretion stream. The normal optical flickering restarts on day 24.5. For days 15-26, eclipse mapping shows that the optical source is spherically symmetric with a radius of 4.1 R_sun. For days 26-41, the optical light is coming from a rim-bright disk of radius 3.4 R_sun. For days 41-67, the optical source is a center-bright disk of radius 2.2 R_sun. Throughout the eruption, the colors remain essentially constant. We present 12 eclipse times during eruption plus five just after the eruption., Comment: ApJ in press. 60 pages, 17 figures

We report the discovery by B. G. Harris and S. Dvorak on JD 2455224.9385 (2010 Jan 28.4385 UT) of the predicted eruption of the recurrent nova U Scorpii (U Sco). We also report on 815 magnitudes (and 16 useful limits) on the pre-eruption light curve in the UBVRI and Sloan r' and i' bands from 2000.4 up to 9 hours before the peak of the January 2010 eruption. We found no significant long-term variations, though we did find frequent fast variations (flickering) with amplitudes up to 0.4 mag. We show that U Sco did not have any rises or dips with amplitude greater than 0.2 mag on timescales from one day to one year before the eruption. We find that the peak of this eruption occurred at JD 2455224.69+-0.07 and the start of the rise was at JD 2455224.32+-0.12. From our analysis of the average B-band flux between eruptions, we find that the total mass accreted between eruptions is consistent with being a constant, in agreement with a strong prediction of nova trigger theory. The date of the next eruption can be anticipated with an accuracy of +-5 months by following the average B-band magnitudes for the next ~10 years, although at this time we can only predict that the next eruption will be in the year 2020+-2., Comment: Astronomical Journal submitted, 36 pages, 3 figures, full tables

Despite the pre-Swift expectation that bright optical flashes from reverse shocks would be prevalent in early-time afterglow emission, rapid response observations show this not to be the case. Although very bright at early times, some GRBs such as GRB 061007 and GRB 060418, lack the short-lived optical flash from the reverse shock within minutes after the GRB. In contrast, other optical afterglows, such as those of GRB 990123, GRB 021211, GRB 060111B, GRB 060117, GRB 061126, and recently GRB 080319B, show a steep-to-flat transition within first 10^3 s typical of a rapidly evolving reverse + forward shock combination. We review the presence and absence of the reverse shock components in optical afterglows and discuss the implications for the standard model and the magnetization of the fireball. We show that the previously predicted optical flashes are likely to occur at lower wavelengths, perhaps as low as radio wavelengths and, by using the case of GRB 061126 we show that the magnetic energy density in the ejecta, expressed as a fraction of the equipartion value, is a key physical parameter., Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures. Submitted to the proceedings of the 6th Huntsville GRB Symposium 2008