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BackgroundSubclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper) has been associated with increased risk of hip and other fractures, but the linking mechanisms remain unclear.ObjectiveTo investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and bone loss.MethodsIndividual participant data analysis was performed after a systematic literature search in MEDLINE/EMBASE (1946-2016). Two reviewers independently screened and selected prospective cohorts providing baseline thyroid status and serial bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. We classified thyroid status as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH] 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), SHyper (TSH < 0.45 mIU/L) and subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo, TSH ≥ 4.50-19.99 mIU/L) both with normal free thyroxine levels. Our primary outcome was annualized percentage BMD change (%ΔBMD) from serial dual X-ray absorptiometry scans of the femoral neck, total hip and lumbar spine, obtained from multivariable regression in a random-effects two-step approach.ResultsAmongst 5458 individuals (median age 72 years, 49.1% women) from six prospective cohorts, 451 (8.3%) had SHypo and 284 (5.2%) had SHyper. During 36 569 person-years of follow-up, those with SHyper had a greater annual bone loss at the femoral neck versus euthyroidism: %ΔBMD = -0.18 (95% CI: -0.34, -0.02; I2 = 0%), with a nonstatistically significant pattern at the total hip: %ΔBMD = -0.14 (95% CI: -0.38, 0.10; I2 = 53%), but not at the lumbar spine: %ΔBMD = 0.03 (95% CI: -0.30, 0.36; I2 = 25%); especially participants with TSH < 0.10 mIU/L showed an increased bone loss in the femoral neck (%Δ BMD = -0.59; [95% CI: -0.99, -0.19]) and total hip region (%ΔBMD = -0.46 [95% CI: -1.05, -0.13]). In contrast, SHypo was not associated with bone loss at any site.ConclusionAmongst adults, SHyper was associated with increased femoral neck bone loss, potentially contributing to the increased fracture risk.

Background: Stroke remains one of the most serious complications in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and has been linked to disturbances of the autonomic nervous system., Objective: The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that impaired cardiac autonomic function might be associated with an enhanced stroke risk in AF patients., Methods: A total of 1922 AF patients who were in either sinus rhythm (SR group; n = 1121) or AF (AF group; n = 801) on a 5-minute resting electrocardiographic (ECG) recording were enrolled in the study. Heart rate variability triangular index (HRVI), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals, root mean square root of successive differences of normal-to-normal intervals, mean heart rate, 5-minute total power, and power in the high-frequency, low-frequency, and very-low-frequency ranges were calculated. Cox regression models were constructed to examine the association of heart rate variability (HRV) parameters with the composite endpoint of stroke or systemic embolism., Results: Mean age was 71 ± 8 years in the SR group and 75 ± 8 years in the AF group. Thirty-seven patients in the SR group (3.4%) and 60 patients in the AF group (8.0%) experienced a stroke or systemic embolism during follow-up of 5 years. In patients with SR, HRVI <15 was the strongest HRV parameter to be associated with stroke or systemic embolism (hazard ratio 3.04; 95% confidence interval 1.3-7.0; P = .009) after adjustment for multiple confounders. In the AF group, no HRV parameter was found to be associated with the composite endpoint., Conclusion: HRVI measured during SR on a single 5-minute ECG recording is independently associated with stroke or systemic embolism in AF patients. HRV analysis in SR may help to improve risk stratification in AF patients., Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr Beer reports grants from the Swiss National Foundation of Science, The Swiss Heart Foundation, and Bayer; and lecture fees from Sanofi Aventis and Amgen, to the institution outside the submitted work. Dr Blum has received research grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Swiss Heart Foundation, all for work outside the submitted study. Dr Bonati has received an unrestricted research grant from AstraZeneca; consultancy or advisory board fees or speaker honoraria from Amgen, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Claret Medical; and travel grants from AstraZeneca and Bayer, outside the submitted work. Dr Conen received consultancy fees from Roche Diagnostics and Trimedics; and speaker fees from Servier and BMS/Pfizer, outside the submitted work. Dr Kühne received personal fees from Daiichi Sankyo and grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Foundation for CardioVascular Research Basel, Bayer, Pfizer, Boston Scientific, BMS, Biotronik, and Daiichi Sankyo, outside the submitted work. Dr Krisai has speaker fees from BMS/Pfizer, outside the submitted work. Dr Müller reports fellowship and training support from Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Abbott/St. Jude Medical, and Biosense Webster; speaker honoraria from Biosense Webster, Medtronic, Abbott/St. Jude Medical, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Biotronik, MicroPort, Novartis, Zoll, and Bristol Myers Squibb; consultant fees from Biosense Webster, Medtronic, Abbott/St. Jude Medical, and Biotronik, outside the submitted work. Dr Moschovitis has received advisory board and/or speaker fees from Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Daiichi Sankyo, Gebro Pharma, Novartis, and Vifor, outside the submitted work. Dr Osswald received research grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation and Swiss Heart Foundation, Foundation for CardioVascular Research Basel, and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; and educational and speaker grants from F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Bayer, Novartis, Sanofi, AstraZeneca, Daiichi-Sankyo, and Pfizer, outside the submitted work. Dr Reichlin has recieved research grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Heart Foundation, and the sitem insel support funds; speaker/consulting honoraria or travel support from Abbott/SJM, Astra Zeneca, Brahms, Bayer, Biosense-Webster, Biotronik, Boston-Scientific, Daiichi Sankyo, Farapulse, Medtronic, Pfizer-,BMS and Roche; and support for his institution’s fellowship program from Abbott/SJM, Biosense Webster, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, and Medtronic for work, outside the submitted study. Dr Zuern has received funding from the “Freiwillige Akademische Gesellschaft Basel”; and personal fees from Cardiomatics, outside the submitted work. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Limited data are available on characteristics associated with antipsychotic use in multimorbid older adults., Aim: Primary: to identify patient characteristics associated with antipsychotic prescribing in a multimorbid population of older inpatients with polypharmacy. Secondary: (1) to observe if antipsychotics use during an index hospitalisation was associated with a drug related admission (DRA) within one year, and (2) to describe these cases of antipsychotic-related readmissions., Method: This was a secondary analysis of the OPERAM randomized controlled trial. Multivariate analysis assessed the association between characteristics and comorbidities with antipsychotic use. An expert team assessed DRA occurring during the one-year follow-up., Results: Antipsychotics were prescribed to 5.5% (n = 110) patients upon admission while 7.7% (n = 154) inpatients received antipsychotics at any time (i.e. upon admission, during hospitalisation, and/or at discharge). The most frequently prescribed antipsychotics were quetiapine (n = 152), haloperidol (n = 48) and risperidone (n = 22). Antipsychotic prescribing was associated with dementia (OR = 3.7 95%CI[2.2;6.2]), psychosis (OR = 26.2 [7.4;92.8]), delirium (OR = 6.4 [3.8;10.8]), mood disorders (OR = 2.6 [1.6;4.1]),  ≥ 15 drugs a day (OR = 1.7 [1.1;2.6]), functional dependency (Activities of Daily Living score < 50/100) (OR = 3.9 [2.5;6.1]) and < 2 units of alcohol per week (OR = 2.2 [1.4;3.6]). DRA occurred in 458 patients (22.8%) within one year. Antipsychotic prescribing at any time was not associated with DRA (OR = 1.0 [0.3;3.9]) however contributed to 8 DRAs, including 3 falls., Conclusion: In this European multimorbid polymedicated older inpatients, antipsychotics were infrequently prescribed, most often at low dosage. Besides neuro-psychiatric symptoms, risk factors for inhospital antipsychotic prescribing were lower functional status and polymedication., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Context: With age, the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism rises. However, incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization remain largely unknown., Objective: To investigate incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism., Design: Pooled data were used from the (1) pretrial population and (2) in-trial placebo group from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism Trial and Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age thyroid 80-plus thyroid trial)., Setting: Community-dwelling 65+ adults with subclinical hypothyroidism from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom., Participants: The pretrial population (N = 2335) consisted of older adults with biochemical subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥1 elevated TSH measurement (≥4.60 mIU/L) and a free T4 within the laboratory-specific reference range. Individuals with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥2 elevated TSH measurements ≥3 months apart, were randomized to levothyroxine/placebo, of which the in-trial placebo group (N = 361) was included., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels and associations between participant characteristics and normalization., Results: In the pretrial phase, TSH levels normalized in 60.8% of participants in a median follow-up of 1 year. In the in-trial phase, levels normalized in 39.9% of participants after 1 year of follow-up. Younger age, female sex, lower initial TSH level, higher initial free T4 level, absence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies, and a follow-up measurement in summer were independent determinants for normalization., Conclusion: Because TSH levels spontaneously normalized in a large proportion of older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (also after confirmation by repeat measurement), a third measurement may be recommended before considering treatment., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01660126 and Netherlands Trial Register, NTR3851., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.)

Background: There is debate over whether statins increase risk of hemorrhagic stroke, so we assessed current evidence, including data from new statin trials and trials of nonstatin low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C)- and triglyceride-lowering therapies., Methods and Results: We performed a systematic review of large randomized clinical trials (≥1000 patients with ≥2 years follow-up) of LDL-C-lowering therapy (statin, ezetimibe, and PCSK-9 [proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9] inhibitor) and triglyceride-lowering therapy (omega-3 supplements and fibrate) that reported hemorrhagic stroke as an outcome. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to July 2, 2021 and updated a meta-analysis of cardiovascular statin trials published in 2012. Among our several subgroup analyses, we looked at difference depending on stroke status and also depending on age. We identified 37 trials for LDL-C lowering (284 301 participants) and 11 for triglyceride lowering (120 984 participants). Overall, we found a higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke for LDL-C lowering, risk ratio (RR) 1.16 (95% CI, 1.01-1.32, P =0.03). For statins (33 trials, 216 258 participants), RR=1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36); for PCSK-9 inhibitors (2 trials, 46 488 participants), RR=0.86 (95% CI, 0.43-1.74); and for ezetimibe (2 trials, 21 555 participants), RR=1.14 (95% CI, 0.64-2.03). In statin trials of patients with previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, RR was 1.46 (95% CI, 1.05-2.04), and in trials with mean age ≥65 years old, RR=1.34 (95% CI, 1.04-1.73) ( P int =0.14 and P int =0.23 respectively); for triglyceride lowering (11 trials, 120 984 participants), RR=1.05 (95% CI, 0.86-1.30)., Conclusions: We found evidence for a small increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke events with LDL-C-lowering therapies but no clear evidence for triglyceride-lowering therapies., Registration: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42021275363.

Background: Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) reduces cardiovascular (CV) events, but data are conflicting on all-cause mortality, especially among older adults. Though LLT does not induce cancer, some randomized clinical trials (RCTs) found a pattern of increased cancer death under LLT. Our objective was to assess a possible shift from CV to cancer death in LLT trials (i.e. an increase in cancer and decrease in CV death) and to investigate potential subgroups at risk., Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. We retrieved RCTs from MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central until 08/2023. We extracted the number of CV and cancer deaths in the treatment vs. in the control arm, calculated the relative risk (RR) by dividing the risk of death in the treatment over the risk of death in the control group and then pooled them using random-effect meta-analysis. We performed subgroup analyses on primary and secondary prevention, and according to different age cut-offs., Results: We included 27 trials with 188'259 participants (23 statin; 4 ezetimibe trials). The trials reported 4056 cancer deaths, 2061 under LLT and 1995 in control groups. Overall, there was no increased risk of cancer mortality (RR 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.97-1.10), with no difference between primary and secondary prevention. In the subgroup analyses for RCTs with ≥15% of participants aged ≥75 years, the RR of cancer death was 1.11 (1.00-1.23), while the RR for CV death was 0.96 (0.91-1.01). For RCTs with a mean age ≥ 70 years, the RR for cancer death was 1.21 (0.99-1.47)., Conclusion: LLT does not lead to a shift from CV to cancer death. However, there might be a possible shift with a pattern of increased cancer deaths in trials with more older adults, particularly ≥75 years. Individual participant data from LLT trials should be made public to allow further investigations., Prospero Registration: CRD42021271658., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Bolt et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Dairy intake may influence cognition through several molecular pathways. However, epidemiologic studies yield inconsistent results, and no dose-response meta-analysis has been conducted yet. Therefore, we performed a systematic review with a dose-response meta-analysis about the association between dairy intake and cognitive decline or incidence of dementia. We investigated prospective studies with a follow-up ≥6 mo on cognitive decline or dementia incidence in adults without known chronic conditions through a systematic search of Embase, Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Google Scholar from inception to 11 July 2023. We evaluated the dose-response association using a random-effects model. We identified 15 eligible cohort studies with >300,000 participants and a median follow-up of 11.4 y. We observed a negative nonlinear association between cognitive decline/dementia incidence and dairy intake as assessed through the quantity of consumption, with the nadir at ∼150 g/d (risk ratio: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99). Conversely, we found an almost linear negative association when we considered the frequency of consumption (risk ratio for linear trend: 0.84; 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.92 for 1 time/d increase of dairy products). Stratified analysis by dairy products showed different shapes of the association with linear inverse relationship for milk intake, whereas possibly nonlinear for cheese. The inverse association was limited to Asian populations characterized by generally lower intake of dairy products, compared with the null association reported by European studies. In conclusion, our study suggests a nonlinear inverse association between dairy intake and cognitive decline or dementia, also depending on dairy types and population characteristics, although the heterogeneity was still high in overall and several subgroup analyses. Additional studies should be performed on this topic, including a wider range of intake and types of dairy products, to confirm a potential preventing role of dairy intake on cognitive decline and identify ideal intake doses. This review was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42020192395., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Several trials and meta-analyses found a benefit of adjunct corticosteroids for community-acquired pneumonia with respect to short-term outcome, but there is uncertainty about longer-term health effects. Herein, we evaluated clinical outcomes at long term in patients participating in the STEP trial (Corticosteroid Treatment for Community-Acquired Pneumonia)., Methods: This predefined secondary analysis investigated 180-day outcomes in 785 adult patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia included in STEP, a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial. The primary endpoint was time to death from any cause at 180 days verified by telephone interview. Additional secondary endpoints included pneumonia-related death, readmission, recurrent pneumonia, secondary infections, new hypertension, and new insulin dependence., Results: From the originally included 785 patients, 727 were available for intention-to-treat analysis at day 180. There was no difference between groups with respect to time to death from any cause (HR for corticosteroid use 1.15, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.95, p = 0.601). Compared to placebo, corticosteroid-treated patients had significantly higher risks for recurrent pneumonia (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.29 to 5.12, p = 0.007), secondary infections (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.25 to 3.03, p = 0.003) and new insulin dependence (OR 8.73, 95% CI 1.10 to 69.62, p = 0.041). There was no difference regarding pneumonia-related death, readmission and new hypertension., Conclusions: In patients with community-acquired pneumonia, corticosteroid use was associated with an increased risk for recurrent pneumonia, secondary infections and new insulin dependence at 180 days. Currently, it is uncertain whether these long-term adverse effects outweigh the short-term effects of corticosteroids in moderate CAP., Trial Registration: This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials. gov, number NCT00973154 before the recruitment of the first patient. First posted: September 9, 2009. Last update posted: April 21, 2015., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Randomized controlled trials of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for treating atrial fibrillation (AF) have proven the procedure's efficacy. Studies assessing its empirical cost-effectiveness outside randomized trial settings are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PVI versus medical therapy for AF., Methods: We followed a target trial approach using the Swiss-AF cohort, a prospective observational cohort study that enrolled patients with AF between 2014 and 2017. Resource utilization and cost information were collected through claims data. Quality of life was measured with EQ-5D-3L utilities. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the perspective of the Swiss statutory health insurance system., Results: Patients undergoing PVI compared with medical therapy had a 5-year overall survival advantage with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI 0.46-1.21; P = .69) and a 19.8% SD improvement in quality of life (95% CI 15.5-22.9; P < .001), at an incremental cost of 29 604 Swiss francs (CHF) (95% CI 16 354-42 855; P < .001). The estimated ICER was CHF 158 612 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained within a 5-year time horizon. Assuming similar health effects and costs over 5 additional years changed the ICER to CHF 82 195 per QALY gained. Results were robust to the sensitivity analyses performed., Conclusions: Our results show that PVI might be a cost-effective intervention within the Swiss healthcare context in a 10-year time horizon, but unlikely to be so at 5 years, if a willingness-to-pay threshold of CHF 100 000 per QALY gained is assumed. Given data availability, we find target trial designs are a valuable tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions outside of randomized controlled trial settings., Competing Interests: Author Disclosures Links to the individual disclosure forms provided by the authors are available here., (Copyright © 2023 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Trueperella pyogenes (T. pyogenes) is a bacterium that colonizes the skin and mucosal surfaces of various domestic and wild animals. It rarely leads to infections in humans, with only a few descriptions available in the literature., Case Presentation: A 71-year-old Swiss farmer with a history of recurring basal cell carcinoma and metastasized pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor presented with signs of sepsis after a three-day history of general weakness, malaise and fever. Clinical and echocardiographic findings, as well as persistent bacteremia were consistent with mitral valve endocarditis caused by T. pyogenes. The patient's condition gradually improved under antibiotic treatment with piperacillin/tazobactam (empiric therapy of sepsis), and later penicillin G based on resistance testing. He was discharged after 13 days and continued outpatient antibiotic therapy with ceftriaxone, resulting in a total antibiotic treatment duration of six weeks. This is the first literature review of T. pyogenes endocarditis in humans. Among nine cases of T. pyogenes endocarditis, three patients had documented contact with farm animals and five had an underlying condition that compromised the immune system. While antibiotic resistance of T. pyogenes is an emerging concern, susceptibility to beta-lactam antibiotics seems to persist. The mortality of T. pyogenes endocarditis described in the literature was high, with 66% of patients not surviving the disease., Conclusions: T. pyogenes is a rare causative organism of infectious endocarditis in humans and descriptions are mainly restricted to case reports. In our review of the literature, we found that both an impaired immune system and contact with farm animals might be risk factors. Growth of T. pyogenes in blood cultures is unlikely to be missed during routine analysis, as it shows marked beta-hemolysis on blood agar culture plates, which generally leads to further characterization of the bacteria. Susceptibility to penicillin, ceftriaxone, and macrolides seems to be retained and the reported mortality in the few patients with T. pyogenes endocarditis is high., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background and Aims: People with familial hypercholesterolaemia are 13 times more likely to develop cardiovascular disease than the general population. However, familial hypercholesterolaemia remains largely underdiagnosed. Tendon xanthoma is a specific clinical feature of familial hypercholesterolaemia and its presence alone implies a probable diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia according to the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network Score (DLCNS). The aim of the study was to determine whether ultrasound detects more Achilles tendon xanthomas (ATX) than clinical examination., Methods: We recruited 100 consecutive patients with LDL-C ≥4 mmol/l. Achilles tendons were evaluated through clinical examination by trained physicians and sonographic examination by another physician blind to the results of clinical examination. Blind second readings of ultrasound images were performed by an expert in musculoskeletal ultrasound. We compared the proportion of patients with ATX detected by either clinical examination or ultrasound and the proportion of patients with a probable/definite familial hypercholesterolaemia diagnosis on the DLCNS before and after ultrasound., Results: Mean (SD) age was 47 (12) years; mean highest LDL-C was 6.57 mmol/l (2.2). ATX were detected in 23% of patients by clinical examination and in 60% by ultrasound. In consequence, 43% had a probable/definite diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia on the DLCNS using clinical examination compared with 72% when ultrasound was used., Conclusion: Compared to clinical examination, ultrasound examination of the Achilles tendon substantially improves the detection of ATX and may help to better identify patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia who are at high risk for premature cardiovascular disease.

Background: Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and silent brain infarcts. We studied whether a multimodal approach offers additional insights to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in predicting stroke or new brain infarcts on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) over a 2-year follow-up., Methods: Swiss-AF is a prospective, multicenter cohort study of patients with known atrial fibrillation. We included patients with available brain MRI both at enrollment and 2 years later. The dates of the baseline and follow-up visits ranged from March 2014 to November 2020. The primary outcome was assessed 2 years after baseline and was defined as a composite of clinically identified stroke or any new brain infarct on the 2-year MRI. We compared a multivariable logistic regression model including prespecified clinical, biomarker, and baseline MRI variables to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score., Results: We included 1232 patients, 89.8% of them taking oral anticoagulants. The primary outcome occurred in 78 patients (6.3%). The following baseline variables were included in the final multivariate model and were significantly associated with the primary outcome: white matter lesion volume in milliliters (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.91 [95% CI, 1.45-2.56]), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; aOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.20-2.63]), GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor-15; aOR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.11-2.53]), serum creatinine (aOR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.02-2.22]), IL (interleukin)-6 (aOR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.00-1.86]), and hFABP (heart-type fatty acid-binding protein; aOR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.31-0.73]). Overall performance and discrimination of the new model was superior to that of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.77-0.87] versus 0.64 [95% CI, 0.58-0.70])., Conclusions: In patients with atrial fibrillation, a model incorporating white matter lesion volume on baseline MRI and selected blood markers yielded new insights on residual stroke risk despite a high proportion of patients on oral anticoagulants. This may be relevant to develop further preventive measures., Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr De Marchis reports honoraria by Bayer, Pfizer, Medtronic and a Grant from Novartis unrelated to the present work. Industry payments are made to the research fund of the University Hospital Basel. Dr Aeschbacher reports speaker fees from Roche Diagnostics. Dr Reichlin reports consultant honoraria/grants from Abbott Laboratories, Biosense Webster, Inc, Biotronik, Boston Scientific Corporation, and Medtronic. Dr Moschovitis has received consultant fees for taking part to advisory boards from Novartis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer, Astra Zeneca and Daiichi Sankyo, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Wuerfel is employed at Roche. Dr Lyrer reports honoraria from Bayer, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer – all unrelated to the present work – and grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation and University Hospital Basel (intramural grant). Dr Fischer reports grant/contracts from Alexion, Biogen, Medtronic Vascular, Penumbra, Phenox, Rapid Medical, as well as support from Stryker and CSL Behring Foundation for Research and Advancement of Patient Health. Dr Conen reports consultation fees from Roche Diagnostics and Trimedics, as well as speaker fees from Servier and Pfizer. Dr Ziegler is employed at Roche Diagnostics International. Dr Kühne reports personal fees from Bayer, personal fees from Böhringer Ingelheim, personal fees from Pfizer Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), personal fees from Daiichi Sankyo, personal fees from Medtronic, personal fees from Biotronik, personal fees from Boston Scientific, personal fees from Johnson&Johnson, personal fees from Roche, grants from Bayer, grants from Pfizer, grants from Boston Scientific, grants from BMS, grants from Biotronik, grants from Daiichi Sankyo. Dr Bonati reports honoraria from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Claret Medical, grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, University of Basel, and Stiftung zur Förderung der gastroenterologischen und allgemeinen klinischen Forschung sowie der medizinischen Bildauswertung. The other authors report no conflicts.

Background: Statin therapy in multimorbid older individuals with polypharmacy is controversial, particularly in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Thereby, physicians must weigh potential benefits against potential side effects, drug-drug interactions, and limited life expectancy., Aim: To assess the prevalence and determinants of potentially inappropriate statin therapy in multimorbid older patients., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of patients aged ≥70 years with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in the Swiss study center of OPERAM, a cluster-randomized trial on pharmacotherapy optimization to reduce drug-related hospital admissions. We assessed potential underuse (no statin but formal indication) and potential overuse (statin but no formal indication, including predicted >60% one-year mortality based on the Walter Score) based on current guidelines for patients in secondary and primary cardiovascular prevention. We assessed the association of potential statin overuse and underuse with six patient characteristics (age, gender, number of diagnoses, number of medications, mental impairment, being housebound) in LASSO-selection analyses., Results: Of 715 multimorbid older adults (79.7 ± 6.5 years, 39.9% women), 337 (47%) were on statin. Statin therapy was appropriate in 474 (66.3%), underused in 130 (18.2%), and overused in 111 (15.5%) patients. In participants in secondary cardiovascular prevention ( n  = 437), being female (odds ratio [OR] 2.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67-4.22) was significantly associated with potential underuse while being housebound (OR 3.53, 95%CI 1.32-9.46) and taking ≥10 medications (OR 1.95,95%CI 1.05-3.67) were associated with potential overuse. In participants in primary cardiovascular prevention ( n  = 278), 28.1% were potentially under- (9%) or overusing (19%) a statin, with no identified risk factor., Conclusion: A third of hospitalized multimorbid older patients with polypharmacy potentially (either) overused or underused statin therapy. Among patients in secondary cardiovascular prevention, women were at risk for potential statin underuse. Housebound patients and those taking ≥10 medications were at risk for potential overuse of a statin. Physicians should carefully evaluate the indication for statin prescription in multimorbid older patients with polypharmacy., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (© 2023 Adam, Baretella, Feller, Blum, Papazoglou, Boland, Aujesky, Baggio and Rodondi.)

In a COVID-19 sero-surveillance cohort study with predominantly healthy and vaccinated individuals, the objectives were (i) to investigate longitudinally the factors associated with the quantitative dynamics of antispike (anti-S1) IgG antibody levels, (ii) to evaluate whether the levels were associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection, and (iii) to assess whether the association was different in the pre-Omicron compared with the Omicron period. The QuantiVac Euroimmun ELISA test was used to quantify anti-S1 IgG levels. The entire study period (16 months), the 11-month pre-Omicron period and the cross-sectional analysis before the Omicron surge included 3219, 2310, and 895 reactive serum samples from 949, 919, and 895 individuals, respectively. Mixed-effect linear, mixed-effect time-to-event, and logistic regression models were used to achieve the objectives. Age and time since infection or vaccination were the only factors associated with a decline of anti-S1 IgG levels. Higher antibody levels were significantly associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection (0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82-0.97), and the association was higher during the time period when Omicron was predominantly circulating compared with the ones when Alpha and Delta variants were predominant (adjusted hazard ratio for interaction 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.84). In a prediction model, it was estimated that >8000 BAU/mL anti-S1 IgG was required to reduce the risk of infection with Omicron variants by approximately 20%-30% for 90 days. Though, such high levels were only found in 1.9% of the samples before the Omicron surge, and they were not durable for 3 months. Anti-S1 IgG antibody levels are statistically associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the prediction impact of the antibody level findings on infection protection is limited., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Medical Virology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) face an increased risk of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to assess the predictive value of the novel atrial-specific biomarker BMP10 (bone morphogenetic protein 10) for death and MACE in patients with AF in comparison with NT-proBNP (N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide). Methods and Results BMP10 and NT-proBNP were measured in patients with AF enrolled in Swiss-AF (Swiss Atrial Fibrillation Study), a prospective multicenter cohort study. A total of 2219 patients were included (median follow-up 4.3 years [interquartile range 3.9, 5.1], mean age 73±9 years, 73% male). In multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) associated with 1 ng/mL increase of BMP10 was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.37-1.87) for all-cause death, and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.35-1.76) for MACE. For all-cause death, the concordance index was 0.783 (95% CI, 0.763-0.809) for BMP10, 0.784 (95% CI, 0.765-0.810) for NT-proBNP, and 0.789 (95% CI, 0.771-0.815) for both biomarkers combined. For MACE, the concordance index was 0.732 (95% CI, 0.715-0.754) for BMP10, 0.747 (95% CI, 0.731-0.768) for NT-proBNP, and 0.750 (95% CI, 0.734-0.771) for both biomarkers combined. When grouping patients according to NT-proBNP categories (<300, 300-900, >900 ng/L), higher aHRs were observed in patients with high BMP10 in the categories of low NT-proBNP (all-cause death aHR, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.15-4.52], MACE aHR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.07-3.28]) and high NT-proBNP (all-cause death aHR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.14-2.26], MACE aHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.07-1.80]). Conclusions BMP10 strongly predicted all-cause death and MACE in patients with AF. BMP10 provided additional prognostic information in low- and high-risk patients according to NT-proBNP stratification. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02105844.

Background: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) contribute to polypharmacy and are associated with adverse effects. As prospective data on longitudinal patterns of PPI prescribing in older patients with multimorbidity are lacking, we sought to assess patterns of PPI prescribing and deprescribing, as well as the association of PPI use with hospital admissions over 1 year in this population., Methods: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal cohort study using data from the Optimizing Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older Adults (OPERAM) trial, a randomized controlled trial testing an intervention to reduce inappropriate prescribing (2016-2018). This trial included adults aged 70 years and older with at least 3 chronic conditions and prescribed at least 5 chronic medications. We assessed prevalence of PPI use at time of hospital admission, and new prescriptions and deprescribing at discharge, and at 2 months and 1 year after discharge, by intervention group. We used a regression with competing risk for death to assess the association of PPI use with readmissions related to their potential adverse effects, and all-cause readmission., Results: Overall, 1080 (57.4%) of 1879 patients (mean age 79 yr) had PPI prescriptions at admission, including 496 (45.9%) patients with a potentially inappropriate indication. At discharge, 133 (24.9%) of 534 patients in the intervention group and 92 (16.8%) of 546 patients in the control group who were using PPIs at admission had deprescribing. Among 680 patients who were not using PPIs at discharge, 47 (14.6%) of 321 patients in the intervention group and 40 (11.1%) of 359 patients in the control group had a PPI started within 2 months. Use of PPIs was associated with all-cause readmission ( n = 770, subdistribution hazard ratio 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.53)., Interpretation: Potentially inappropriate use of PPI, new PPI prescriptions and PPI deprescribing were frequent among older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. These data suggest that persistent PPI use may be associated with clinically important adverse effects in this population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

The majority of patients with acute back pain have no serious underlying disease; however, many internal diseases can be manifested as acute or chronic back pain. Therefore, in the assessment of patients with back pain the clinical history and clinical examination are important in order to detect indications for a possible underlying disease. Particularly red flags that indicate an acute or life-threatening disease should not be missed. In most cases where such red flags, risk factors or clinical indications are not present, no systematic search for internal underlying diseases is necessary. This article summarizes the most relevant differential diagnoses and clinical indications as well as warning symptoms., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) might not be representative of the real-world population because of unreasonable exclusion criteria. We sought to determine which groups of patients are excluded from RCTs that included lipid-lowering therapy. Methods and Results We retrieved all trials from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration and systematically searched for large (≥1000 participants) lipid-lowering therapy RCTs, defined as statins, ezetimibe, and PCSK9 inhibitors. We predefined groups: older adults (>70 or >75 years), women, non-Whites, chronic kidney failure, heart failure, immunosuppression, cancer, dementia, treated thyroid disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental illness, atrial fibrillation, multimorbidity (≥2 chronic diseases), and polypharmacy. We counted the number of RCTs excluding patients of the predefined groups and meta-analyzed the prevalence of included patients to obtain pooled estimates with a random-effects model. We included 42 RCTs (298 605 patients). Eighty-one percent of trials excluded patients with severe and 76% those with moderate kidney failure. Seventy-one percent of trials excluded groups of women, 64% excluded patients with moderate to severe heart failure, 64% those with immunosuppressant conditions, 48% those with cancer, 29% those with dementia, and 29% of trials excluded older adults. The pooled prevalence for patients >70 years of age was 25% (95% CI, 0%-49%), 11% (3%-18%) for >75 years of age, and 51% (38%-63%) for multimorbidity. Conclusions The majority of lipid-lowering therapy trials excluded patients with common diseases, such as moderate-to-severe kidney disease or heart failure or with immunosuppression. Underrepresenting certain populations, including women and older adults, might lead to limited transportability of study results and uncertainty on possible side-effects and efficacy in these groups. Future trials should promote diversity in the recruitment strategies and improve equity in cardiovascular research. Registration URL: ClinicalTrials.gov; Unique Identifier: CRD42021253909.

Background: Antithyroid antibodies increase the likelihood of developing overt hypothyroidism, but their clinical utility remains unclear. No large randomized controlled trial (RCT) has assessed whether older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) caused by autoimmune thyroid disease derive more benefits from levothyroxine treatment (LT4)., Objective: To determine whether older adults with SHypo and positive antibodies derive more clinical benefits from LT4 than those with negative antibodies., Methods: We pooled individual participant data from two RCTs, Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults with Subclinical Hypothyroidism and IEMO 80+. Participants with persistent SHypo were randomly assigned to receive LT4 or placebo. We compared the effects of LT4 versus placebo in participants with and without anti-thyroid peroxidase (TPO) at baseline. The two primary outcomes were 1-year change in Hypothyroid Symptoms and Tiredness scores on the Thyroid-Related Quality-of-Life Patient-Reported Outcome Questionnaire., Results: Among 660 participants (54% women) ≥65 years, 188 (28.5%) had positive anti-TPO. LT4 versus placebo on Hypothyroid Symptoms lead to an adjusted between-group difference of -2.07 (95% confidence interval: -6.04 to 1.90) for positive antibodies versus 0.89 (-1.76 to 3.54) for negative antibodies (p for interaction = 0.31). Similarly, there was no treatment effect modification by baseline antibody status for Tiredness scores-adjusted between-group difference 1.75 (-3.60 to 7.09) for positive antibodies versus 1.14 (-1.90 to 4.19) for negative antibodies (p for interaction = 0.98). Positive anti-TPO were not associated with better quality of life, improvement in handgrip strength, or fewer cardiovascular outcomes with levothyroxine treatment., Conclusions: Among older adults with SHypo, positive antithyroid antibodies are not associated with more benefits on clinical outcomes with LT4., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Internal Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Publication of The Journal of Internal Medicine.)

Introduction/aims: Prognostic factors in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) predict the disease course and may help individualize patient care. The aim was to summarize the evidence on prognostic factors that may support treatment decisions., Methods: We searched six databases for prospective studies that each included ≥50 DMD patients with a minimum follow-up of 1 y. Primary outcomes were age at loss of ambulation (LoA), pulmonary function (forced vital capacity percent of predicted, FVC%p), and heart failure., Results: Out of 5074 references, 59 studies were analyzed. Corticosteroid use was associated with a delayed LoA (pooled effect hazard ratio [HR] 0.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.75, I2 94%), better pulmonary function tests (higher peak FVC%, prolonged time with FVC%p > 50%, and reduced need for assisted ventilation) and delayed cardiomyopathy. Longer corticosteroid treatment was associated with later LoA (>1 y compared to <1 y; pooled HR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.90) and early treatment start (aged <5 y) may be associated with early cardiomyopathy and higher fracture risk. Genotype appeared to be an independent driver of LoA in some studies. Higher baseline physical function tests (e.g., 6-minute walk test) were associated with delayed LoA. Left ventricular dysfunction and FVC <1 L increased and the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors reduced the risk of heart failure and death. Fusion surgery in scoliosis may potentially preserve pulmonary function., Discussion: Prognostic factors that may inform clinical decisions include age at corticosteroid treatment initiation and treatment duration, ACE-inhibitor use, baseline physical function tests, pulmonary function, and cardiac dysfunction., (© 2022 The Authors. Muscle & Nerve published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

The effect of levothyroxine (LT4) therapy for subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) on appendicular bone geometry and volumetric density has so far not been studied. In a nested study within the randomized, placebo-controlled Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Subclinical Hypothyroidism (TRUST) trial, we assessed the effect of LT4 therapy on bone geometry as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). In the TRUST trial, community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years with SHypo were randomized to LT4 with dose titration vs. placebo with mock titration. We analyzed data from participants enrolled at the TRUST site in Bern, Switzerland who had bone pQCT measured at baseline and at 1 to 2 years follow-up. The primary outcomes were the annual percentage changes of radius and tibia epi- and diaphysis bone geometry (total and cortical cross-sectional area (CSA) and cortical thickness), and of volumetric bone mineral density (bone mineral content (BMC) and total, trabecular and cortical volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD)). We performed linear regression of the annual percentage changes adjusted for sex, LT4 dose at randomization and muscle cross-sectional area. The 98 included participants had a mean age of 73.9 (±SD 5.4) years, 45.9% were women, and 12% had osteoporosis. They were randomized to placebo (n = 48) or LT4 (n = 50). Annual changes in BMC and vBMD were similar between placebo and LT4-treated groups, without significant difference in bone geometry or volumetric bone mineral density changes, neither at the diaphysis, nor at the epiphysis. For example, in the placebo group, epiphyseal BMC (radius) decreased by a mean 0.2% per year, with a similar decrease of 0.5% per year in the LT4 group (between-group difference in %ΔBMC 0.3, 95% CI -0.70 to 1.21, p = 0.91). Compared to placebo, LT4 therapy for an average 14 months had no significant effect on bone mass, bone geometry and volumetric density in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT01660126 (TRUST Thyroid trial) and NCT02491008 (Skeletal outcomes)., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: To assess the risk for COVID-19 of police officers, we are studying the seroprevalence in a cohort. The baseline cross-sectional investigation was performed before a vaccination campaign in January/February 2021, and demonstrated a seroprevalence of 12.9%. Here, we demonstrate serosurveillance results after a vaccination campaign., Methods: The cohort consists of 1022 study participants. The 3- and 6-month follow-up visits were performed in April/May and September 2021. Data on infection and vaccination rates were obtained via measuring antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein and spike protein and online questionnaires., Results: The mean age of the population was 41 (SD 8.8) years, 72% were male and 76% had no comorbidity. Seroconversion was identified in 1.05% of the study population at the 3-month visit and in 0.73% at the 6-month visit, resulting in an infection rate of 1.8% over a time period of 6 months. In comparison, the infection rate in the general population over the same time period was higher (3.18%, p = .018). At the 6-month visit, 77.8% of participants reported being vaccinated once and 70.5% twice; 81% had an anti-S antibody titer of >250 U/ml and 87.1% of ≥2 U/ml. No significant association between infection and job role within the department, working region, or years of experience in the job was found. Anti-spike antibody titers of vaccinated study participants showed a calculated decreasing trend 150-200 days after the second vaccine dose., Conclusion: These data confirm the value of the vaccination campaign in an exposed group other than healthcare professionals., (© 2022 The Authors. Immunity, Inflammation and Disease published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Importance: The most appropriate therapy for older adults with multimorbidity may depend on life expectancy (ie, mortality risk), and several scores have been developed to predict 1-year mortality risk. However, often, these mortality risk scores have not been externally validated in large sample sizes, and a head-to-head comparison in a prospective contemporary cohort is lacking., Objective: To prospectively compare the performance of 6 scores in predicting the 1-year mortality risk in hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study analyzed data of participants in the OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial, which was conducted between December 1, 2016, and October 31, 2018, in surgical and nonsurgical departments of 4 university-based hospitals in Louvain, Belgium; Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cork, Republic of Ireland; and Bern, Switzerland. Eligible participants in the OPERAM trial had multimorbidity (≥3 coexisting chronic diseases), were aged 70 years or older, had polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications), and were admitted to a participating ward. Data were analyzed from April 1 to September 30, 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was any-cause death occurring in the first year of inclusion in the OPERAM trial. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the following 6 scores were assessed: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons, CARING (Cancer, Admissions ≥2, Residence in a nursing home, Intensive care unit admit with multiorgan failure, ≥2 Noncancer hospice guidelines) Criteria, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Gagné Index, Levine Index, and Walter Index. These scores were assessed using the following measures: Brier score (0 indicates perfect overall performance and 0.25 indicates a noninformative model); C-statistic and 95% CI; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values., Results: The 1879 patients in the study had a median (IQR) age of 79 (74-84) years and 835 were women (44.4%). The median (IQR) number of chronic diseases was 11 (8-16). Within 1 year, 375 participants (20.0%) died. Brier scores ranged from 0.16 (Gagné Index) to 0.24 (Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons). C-statistic values ranged from 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.65) for Charlson Comorbidity Index to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for the Walter Index. Calibration was good for the Gagné Index and moderate for other mortality risk scores., Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this prognostic study suggest that all 6 of the 1-year mortality risk scores examined had moderate prognostic performance, discriminatory power, and calibration in a large cohort of hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Overall, none of these mortality risk scores outperformed the others, and thus none could be recommended for use in daily clinical practice.

Objective: Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) is increasingly used as a neuroaxonal injury biomarker in the elderly. Besides age, little is known about how other physiological factors like renal function and body mass index (BMI) alter its levels. Here, we investigated the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and BMI with sNfL in a large sample of elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF)., Methods: This is a cross-sectional analysis from the Swiss-AF Cohort (NCT02105844). We measured sNfL using an ultrasensitive single-molecule array assay. We calculated eGFR using the chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) creatinine (eGFR crea ) and creatinine-cystatin C (eGFR crea-cys ) formulas, and BMI from weight and height measurements. We evaluated the role of eGFR and BMI as determinants of sNfL levels using multivariable linear regression and the adjusted R 2 (R 2 adj )., Results: Among 2,277 Swiss-AF participants (mean age 73.3 years), eGFR crea showed an inverse curvilinear association with sNfL after adjustment for age and cardiovascular comorbidities. BMI also showed an independent, inverse linear association with sNfL. The R 2 adj of models with age, eGFR crea , and BMI alone was 0.26, 0.35, and 0.02, respectively. A model with age and eGFR crea combined explained 45% of the sNfL variance. Sensitivity analyses (i) further adjusting for vascular brain lesions ( N = 1,402 participants with MRI) and (ii) using eGFR crea-cys yielded consistent results., Interpretation: In an elderly AF cohort, both renal function and BMI were associated with sNfL, but only renal function explained a substantial proportion of the sNfL variance. This should be taken into account when using sNfL in elderly patients or patients with cardiovascular disease., Competing Interests: GM: consultant fees from Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis, outside of the submitted work. GMDM: Support from SNSF, “Spezialprogramm Nachwuchsförderung Klinische Forschung,” University of Basel, Science Funds (Wissenschaftspool) University Hospital Basel, Swiss Heart Foundation, Bangerter-Rhyner-Stiftung, Swisslife Jubiläumsstiftung for Medical Research, Swiss Neurological Society, Fondazione Dr. Ettore Balli, De Quervain research grant, Thermo Fisher GmbH; Travel honoraria Bayer, BMS/Pfizer; Speaker honoraria Bayer, Medtronic; Steering committee PACIFIC Stroke, Industry payments to the research fund of the University Hospital Basel. SE: Travel or speaker honoraria from Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Daiichi-Sankyo; Scientific advisory boards Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, BMS/Pfizer, MindMaze; Editorial board of Stroke; Research funding to his institutions from Pfizer, Stago, Daiichi-Sankyo, Science Funds [Wissenschaftsfonds] University Hospital Basel, University Basel, “Wissenschaftsfonds Rehabilitation” University Hospital for Geriatric Medicine Felix Platter, “Freiwillige Akademische Gesellschaft Basel,” Swiss Heart Foundation, SNSF. DC: consulting fees from Roche Diagnostics, outside of the current work. MK: fees from Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, BMS/Pfizer, Daiichi-Sankyo, Medtronic, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Johnson&Johnson, Roche; grants from Bayer, Pfizer, Boston Scientific, BMS, Biotronik, Daiichi-Sankyo. LB: fees and non-financial support from Amgen, Bayer; fees from BMS, Claret Medical and InnovHeart; grants from AstraZeneca, SNSF, University of Basel, Swiss Heart Foundation, outside the submitted work. JK: speaker fees, research support, travel support, and/or advisory boards Swiss Multiple Sclerosis Society, SNSF, University of Basel, Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Alliance, Bayer, Biogen, Celgene, Merck, Novartis, Octave Bioscience, Roche, Sanofi. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Polymeris, Helfenstein, Benkert, Aeschbacher, Leppert, Coslovsky, Willemse, Schaedelin, Blum, Rodondi, Reichlin, Moschovitis, Wuerfel, De Marchis, Engelter, Lyrer, Conen, Kühne, Osswald, Bonati, Kuhle and the Swiss-AF Investigators.)

Background: Necrotizing soft-tissue infections are infections with high mortality. The use of immunoglobulins within a combination therapy including broad-spectrum antibiotics has been debated. We assessed potential benefits of immunoglobulins and hypothesized that they were associated with a treatment benefit in a high-resource setting., Methods: Patients with necrotizing soft-tissue infection hospitalized in the tertiary intensive care unit of the University Hospital of Zurich, Switzerland, between 2008 and 2020 were included retrospectively. The association between immunoglobulin administration and in-hospital survival, intensive care unit length of stay, the incidences of acute renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome and septic shock were analyzed., Results: After adjustment for confounders, no difference for in-hospital survival (hazard ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-20.20, p = 0.5), intensive care unit length of stay (subhazard ratio [SHR] 0.90, CI 0.41-1.98, p = 0.8) and the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (SHR 1.2, CI 0.36-4.03, p = 0.77) was observed in patients with or without immunoglobulin treatment. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the risk of developing acute renal failure (SHR 2.86, CI 1.33-6.15, p = 0.01) and septic shock (SHR 1.86, CI 1.02-3.40, p = 0.04) was higher in patients treated with immunoglobulins, possibly reflecting a higher disease severity beyond measured confounders., Conclusions: No clear evidence for a benefit of immunoglobulins in our cohort with consistent antibiotic use was found. Patients receiving immunoglobulins appeared more severely ill. Complementary to high treatment standards and appropriate antibiotics including beta lactams and protein synthesis inhibitors, immunoglobulins should be administered on a case-to-case basis, at least while more evidence from larger randomized controlled trials is missing., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Glucocorticoids are frequently prescribed in inflammatory diseases and have recently experienced a boom in the treatment of COVID-19. Small studies have shown an effect of glucocorticoids on inflammatory marker levels, but definitive proof is lacking. We investigated the influence of prednisone on inflammatory biomarkers in a previous multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial that compared a 7-day treatment course of 50-mg prednisone to placebo in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. We compared levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), leukocyte and neutrophil count between patients with and without glucocorticoid treatment at baseline and on days 3, 5, and 7 and at discharge by Wilcoxon tests and analysis of variance. A total of 356 patient data sets in the prednisone group and 355 in the placebo group were available for analysis. Compared to placebo, use of prednisone was associated with reductions in levels of CRP on days 3, 5, and 7 (mean difference of 46%, P < .001 for each time point). For PCT, no such difference was observed. Leukocyte and neutrophil count were higher in the prednisone group at all time points (mean difference of 27% for leukocytes and 33% for neutrophils, P <.001 for all time points). We conclude that after administration of glucocorticoids in community-acquired pneumonia, patients had lower CRP levels and increased leukocyte and neutrophil count as compared to the placebo group. PCT levels were not different between treatment groups. PCT levels thus may more appropriately mirror the resolution of infection compared to more traditional inflammatory markers., (© 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.)

Background: Protests and police fieldwork provide a high-exposure environment for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. In this cross-sectional analysis, we investigated the seroprevalence among a police cohort, and sociodemographic, work, and health-related factors associated with seropositivity., Methods: Study participants were invited for serological testing of SARS-CoV-2 and to complete online questionnaires. Serum neutralization titers toward the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (expressing D614G) and the Alpha and Beta variants were measured in seropositive study participants., Results: A total of 978 police personnel representing 35% of the entire staff participated from February to March 2021. The seroprevalence was 12.9%. It varied by geographic region, ranged from 9% to 13.5% in 3 regions, including the city; and was 22% in Bernese Seeland/Jura with higher odds for seropositivity (odds ratio [OR], 2.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.28-4.44], P =.006). Job roles with mainly office activity were associated with a lower risk of seropositivity (OR, 0.33 [95% CI, .14-.77], P =.010). Self-reported compliance with mask wearing during working hours was 100%; 45% of seropositive vs 5% of seronegative participants ( P <.001) reported having had contact with a proven coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case living in the same household prior to serological testing. The level of serum antibody titers correlated with neutralization capacity. Antibodies derived from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection effectively neutralized the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, but were less effective against the Alpha and Beta variants., Conclusions: The seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies of police officers was comparable to that reported in the general population, suggesting that the personal protective equipment of the police is effective, and that household contacts are the leading transmission venues. The level of serum antibody titers, in particular that of anti-spike antibodies, correlated well with neutralization capacity. Low antibody titers acquired from natural infection were not effective against variants., Clinical Trials Registration: NCT04643444., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Insulin resistance (IR) is associated with increased risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Quantifying IR is invasive and time-consuming, and thus not routinely used in clinical practice. Simple metabolic markers to predict IR exist, but have not been validated in premenopausal women or women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)., Objective: To evaluate the ability of metabolic markers to identify premenopausal women with/without PCOS who are insulin resistant., Design/setting: Cross-sectional analysis., Participants: One hundred and seventy-one non-diabetic premenopausal overweight/obese women without PCOS and 71 women with PCOS., Methods: IR was quantified by the steady-state plasma glucose during the modified insulin-suppression test. Metabolic markers (BMI, lipid/lipoprotein concentrations, and fasting glucose) were evaluated for their discriminative ability to identify IR, using area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis. Optimal cut-points were evaluated for predictive power., Results: In the non-PCOS group, the triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C) was the best marker (AUROC 0.73). Optimal diagnostic cut-point was 1.9. In the PCOS group, the TG/HDL-C ratio, cholesterol/HDL-C ratio (TC/HDL-C), and HDL-C performed well (AUROC > 0.80), with optimal cut-points for TG/HDL-C 1.3, TC/HDL-C 3.4, and HDL-C 52 mg/dL: TG/HDL-C was more sensitive, but HDL-C had a higher PPV for IR., Conclusion: TG/HDL-C can identify IR in premenopausal women with and/without PCOS; diagnostic cut-points differ from those of men and postmenopausal women. HDL-C is an alternative predictor in women with PCOS. These simple metabolic markers, which are standardized between labs, inexpensive, and routinely measured, can be used to tailor lifestyle and medical interventions to improve health outcomes in insulin-resistant premenopausal women., (© 2021. Italian Society of Endocrinology (SIE).)

Objective: To evaluate if subclinical thyroid dysfunction is associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF)., Methods: Swiss-AF is a prospective cohort of community-dwelling participants aged ≥ 65 years with AF. Primary outcome was a composite endpoint of CV events (myocardial infarctions, stroke/transitory ischemic events, systemic embolism, heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, CV deaths). Secondary outcomes were component endpoints, total mortality, and AF-progression. Exposures were thyroid dysfunction categories, TSH and fT4. Sensitivity analyses were performed for amiodarone use, thyroid hormones use, and competing events., Results: 2415 patients were included (mean age: 73.2 years; 27% women). 196 (8.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 53 (2.3%) subclinical hyperthyroidism. Subclinical thyroid dysfunction was not associated with CV events, during a median follow-up of 2.1 years (max 5 years): age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR) of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.69-1.41) for subclinical hypothyroidism and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.23-1.32) for subclinical hyperthyroidism. Results remained robust following multivariable adjustment and sensitivity analyses. In euthyroid patients, fT4 levels were associated with an increased risk for the composite endpoint and HF (adjHR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04-2.05; adjHR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.08-2.66, respectively, for the highest quintile vs the middle quintile). Results remained similar following multivariable adjustment and remained significant for HF in sensitivity analyses. No association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and total mortality or AF-progression was found., Conclusions: Subclinical hypothyroidism was not associated with increased CV risk in AF patients. Higher levels of fT4 with normal TSH were associated with a higher risk for HF.

Introduction: Statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMSs) are a major clinical issue in the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events. Current guidelines advise various approaches mainly based on expert opinion. We will lead a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the tolerability and acceptability and effectiveness of statin-based therapy management of patients with a history of SAMS. We aim to provide evidence on the tolerability and different strategies of statin-based management of patients with a history of SAMS., Methods and Analysis: We will conduct a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies with a control group. We will search in Data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials, Scopus, Clinicaltrials.gov and Proquest from inception until April 2021. Two independent reviewers will carry out the study selection based on eligibility criteria. We will extract data following a standard data collection form. The reviewers will use the Cochrane Collaboration's tools and Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to appraise the study risk of bias. Our primary outcome will be tolerability and our secondary outcomes will be acceptability and effectiveness. We will conduct a qualitative analysis of all included studies. In addition, if sufficient and homogeneous data are available, we will conduct quantitative analysis. We will synthesise dichotomous data using OR with 95% CI and continuous outcomes by using mean difference or standardised mean difference (with 95% CI). We will determine heterogeneity visually with forest plots and quantitatively with I 2 and Q-test. We will summarise the confidence in the quantitative estimate by using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach., Ethics and Dissemination: As a systematic review of literature without collection of new clinical data, there will be no requirement for ethical approval. We will disseminate findings through peer-reviewed publications., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42020202619., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The cardiovascular effects of treating older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) are uncertain. Although concerns have been raised regarding a potential increase in cardiovascular side effects from thyroid hormone replacement, undertreatment may also increase the risk of cardiovascular events, especially for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD)., Objective: To determine the effects of levothyroxine treatment on cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with SCH., Methods: Combined data of two parallel randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trials TRUST (Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism - a randomised placebo controlled Trial) and IEMO80+ (the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age 80-plus thyroid trial) were analysed as one-stage individual participant data. Participants aged ≥65 years for TRUST (n=737) and ≥80 years for IEMO80+ (n=105) with SCH, defined by elevated TSH with fT4 within the reference range, were included. Participants were randomly assigned to receive placebo or levothyroxine, with titration of the dose until TSH level was within the reference range. Cardiovascular events and cardiovascular side effects of overtreatment (new-onset atrial fibrillation and heart failure) were investigated, including stratified analyses according to CVD history and age., Results: The median [IQR] age was 75.0 [69.7-81.1] years, and 448 participants (53.2%) were women. The mean TSH was 6.38± SD 5.7 mIU/L at baseline and decreased at 1 year to 5.66 ± 3.3 mIU/L in the placebo group, compared with 3.66 ± 2.1 mIU/L in the levothyroxine group (p<0.001), at a median dose of 50 μg. Levothyroxine did not significantly change the risk of any of the prespecified cardiovascular outcomes, including cardiovascular events (HR 0.74 [0.41-1.25]), atrial fibrillation (HR 0.69 [0.32-1.52]), or heart failure (0.41 [0.13-1.35]), or all-cause mortality (HR 1.28 [0.54-3.03]), irrespective of history of CVD and age., Conclusion: Treatment with levothyroxine did not significantly change the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism, irrespective of a history of cardiovascular disease and age., Clinical Trial Registration: [ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT01660126] (TRUST); Netherlands Trial Register: NTR3851 (IEMO80+)., Competing Interests: SM reported receiving grants from ZonMW and nonfinancial support from Merck during the conduct of the study. RP reported receiving grants from European Union FP7 and ZonMw (627001001) and nonfinancial support from Merck KGaA during the conduct of the study. DS reported receiving grants from European Union FP7 and nonfinancial support from Merck Serono during the conduct of the study. NR reported receiving grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Velux Foundation during the conduct of the study. KP reported receiving grants from Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) and the European Union FP7-HEALTH-2011 programme during the conduct of the study. T-HC reported receiving grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation during the conduct of the study. JG reported receiving grants from European Union FP7 and ZonMw (627001001) and nonfinancial support from Merck KGaA during the conduct of the study. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Zijlstra, Jukema, Westendorp, Du Puy, Poortvliet, Kearney, O’Keeffe, Dekkers, Blum, Rodondi, Collet, Quinn, Sattar, Stott, Trompet, den Elzen, Gussekloo and Mooijaart.)

Background Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is very common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesized that biomarkers of inflammation can identify patients with AF at increased risk of this important complication. Methods and Results Patients with established AF were prospectively enrolled. Levels of hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and interleukin-6 were measured from plasma samples obtained at baseline. We calculated an inflammation score ranging from 0 to 4 (1 point for each biomarker between the 50th and 75th percentile, 2 points for each biomarker above the 75th percentile). Individual associations of biomarkers and the inflammation score with HF hospitalization were obtained from multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. A total of 3784 patients with AF (median age 72 years, 24% prior HF) were followed for a median of 4.0 years. The median (interquartile range) plasma levels of hs-CRP and interleukin-6 were 1.64 (0.81-3.69) mg/L and 3.42 (2.14-5.60) pg/mL, respectively. The overall incidence of HF hospitalization was 3.04 per 100 person-years and increased from 1.34 to 7.31 per 100 person-years across inflammation score categories. After multivariable adjustment, both biomarkers were significantly associated with the risk of HF hospitalization (per increase in 1 SD, adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.34 for log-transformed hs-CRP; adjusted HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.35-1.62 for log-transformed interleukin-6). Similar results were obtained for the inflammation score (highest versus lowest score, adjusted HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.80-3.30; P value for trend <0.001). Conclusions Biomarkers of inflammation strongly predicted HF hospitalization in a large, contemporary sample of patients with AF. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02105844.

Objective: The optimal target heart rate in patients with prevalent atrial fibrillation (AF) is not well defined. The aim of this study was to analyse the associations between heart rate and adverse outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of patients with prevalent AF., Methods: From two prospective cohort studies, we included stable AF outpatients who were in AF on the baseline ECG. The main outcome events assessed during prospective follow-up were heart failure hospitalisation, stroke or systemic embolism and death. The associations between heart rate and adverse outcomes were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression models., Results: The study population consisted of 1679 patients who had prevalent AF at baseline. Mean age was 74 years, and 24.6% were women. The mean heart rate on the baseline ECG was 78 (±19) beats per minute (bpm). The median follow-up was 3.9 years (IQR 2.2-5.0). Heart rate was not significantly associated with heart failure hospitalisation (adjusted HR (aHR) per 10 bpm increase, 1.00, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.07, p=0.95), stroke or systemic embolism (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.07, p=0.38) or death (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.09, p=0.66). There was no evidence of a threshold effect for heart rates <60 bpm or > 100 bpm., Conclusions: In this large contemporary cohort of outpatients with prevalent AF, we found no association between heart rate and adverse outcome events. These data are in line with recommendations that strict heart rate control is not needed in otherwise stable outpatients with AF., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Disclosures/conflicts of interest outside of the submitted work, are reported within the manuscript. GM has received consultant fees for taking part to advisory boards from Novartis and Astra Zeneca outside of the submitted work. RK receives institutional grants from Abbott, Biosense-Webster, Boston-Scientific, Biotronik, Medtronic and Sis-Medical. CSZ reports a research grant from Medtronic and honoraria from Vifor Pharma and Novartis. AA has served as consultant to Boston Scientific, Backbeat, Biosense Webster, Cairdac, Corvia, Microport CRM, EPD-Philips and Radcliffe Publisher; he received speaker fees from Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and Microport; he participates in clinical trials sponsored by Boston Scientific, Medtronic, EPD-Philips; and he has intellectual properties with Boston Scientific, Biosense Webster, and Microport CRM. JHB reports grants from the Swiss National Foundation of Science, The Swiss Heart Foundation. MK has served on the speaker’s bureau for Boston Scientific, St. Jude Medical and Biotronik; he has received lecture/consulting fees from Sorin, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer, Sanofi Aventis, Novartis, Medtronic, Pfizer-BMS and has received unrestricted grants from Bayer and Pfizer-BMS; he is a proctor for Medtronic (Cryoballoon). DC has received consultant/speaker fees from Servier Canada and Roche Diagnostics, Switzerland, outside of the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The occurrence of congestive heart failure (CHF) hospitalization among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a poor prognostic marker., Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess whether insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP-7), a marker of myocardial damage, identifies AF patients at high risk for this complication., Methods: We analyzed 2 prospective multicenter observational cohort studies that included 3691 AF patients. Levels of IGFBP-7 and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) were measured from frozen plasma samples at baseline. The primary endpoint was hospitalization for CHF. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression analyses were constructed., Results: Mean patient age was 69 ± 12 years, 1028 (28%) were female, and 879 (24%) had a history of CHF. The incidence per 1000 patient-years across increasing IGFBP-7 quartiles was 7, 10, 32, and 85. The corresponding multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 1.0, 1.05 (0.63-1.77), 2.38 (1.50-3.79), and 4.37 (2.72-7.04) (P for trend <.001). In a subgroup of 2812 patients without pre-existing CHF at baseline, the corresponding aHRs were 1.0, 0.90 (0.47-1.72), 1.69 (0.94-3.04), and 3.48 (1.94-6.24) (P for trend <.001). Patients with IGFBP-7 and NT-proBNP levels above the biomarker-specific median had a higher risk of incident CHF hospitalization (aHR 5.20; 3.35-8.09) compared to those with only 1 elevated marker (elevated IGFBP-7 aHR 2.17; 1.30-3.60); elevated NT-proBNP aHR 1.97; 1.17-3.33); or no elevated marker (reference)., Conclusion: Higher plasma levels of IGFBP-7 were strongly and independently associated with CHF hospitalization in AF patients. The prognostic information provided by IGFBP-7 was additive to that of NT-proBNP., (Copyright © 2020 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aims: The 2018 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) and 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) lipid guidelines recently updated their recommendations regarding proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin-9 inhibitors (PCSK9i). We assessed the potential eligibility for PCSK9i according to the new guidelines in patients with acute coronary syndromes., Methods and Results: We analysed a contemporary, prospective Swiss cohort of patients hospitalised for acute coronary syndromes. We modelled a statin intensification effect and an incremental ezetimibe effect on low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels among patients who were not on high-intensity statins or ezetimibe. One year after the index acute coronary syndrome event, treatment eligibility for PCSK9i was defined as low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of 1.4 mmol/l or greater according to ESC/EAS guidelines. For ACC/AHA guidelines, treatment eligibility was defined as low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of 1.8 mmol/l or greater in the presence of very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, defined by multiple major atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events and/or high-risk conditions. Of 2521 patients, 93.2% were treated with statins (53% high-intensity statins) and 7.3% with ezetimibe at 1 year, and 54.9% had very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels less than 1.8 mmol/l and less than 1.4 mmol/l at 1 year were observed in 37.5% and 15.7% of patients, respectively. After modelling the statin intensification and ezetimibe effects, these numbers increased to 76.1% and 49%, respectively. The proportion of patients eligible for PCSK9i was 51% according to ESC/EAS criteria versus 14% according to ACC/AHA criteria., Conclusions: In this analysis, the 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines rendered half of all post-acute coronary syndrome patients potentially eligible for PCSK9i treatment, as compared to a three-fold lower eligibility rate based on the 2018 ACC/AHA guidelines., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background Persistent racial/ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality are partially explained by healthcare access and socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral factors. Little is known about the association between race/ethnicity-specific CVD mortality and county-level factors. Methods and Results Using 2017 county-level data, we studied the association between race/ethnicity-specific CVD age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) and county-level factors (demographics, census region, socioeconomics, CVD risk factors, and healthcare access). Univariate and multivariable linear regressions were used to estimate the association between these factors; R 2 values were used to assess the factors that accounted for the greatest variation in CVD AAMR by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic/Latinx individuals). There were 659 740 CVD deaths among non-Hispanic White individuals in 2698 counties; 100 475 deaths among non-Hispanic Black individuals in 717 counties; and 49 493 deaths among Hispanic/Latinx individuals across 267 counties. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had the highest mean CVD AAMR (320.04 deaths per 100 000 individuals), whereas Hispanic/Latinx individuals had the lowest (168.42 deaths per 100 000 individuals). The highest CVD AAMRs across all racial/ethnic groups were observed in the South. In unadjusted analyses, the greatest variation ( R 2 ) in CVD AAMR was explained by physical inactivity for non-Hispanic White individuals (32.3%), median household income for non-Hispanic Black individuals (24.7%), and population size for Hispanic/Latinx individuals (28.4%). In multivariable regressions using county-level factor categories, the greatest variation in CVD AAMR was explained by CVD risk factors for non-Hispanic White individuals (35.3%), socioeconomic factors for non-Hispanic Black (25.8%), and demographic factors for Hispanic/Latinx individuals (34.9%). Conclusions The associations between race/ethnicity-specific age-adjusted CVD mortality and county-level factors differ significantly. Interventions to reduce disparities may benefit from being designed accordingly.

Introduction: Population-level and individual-level analyses have strengths and limitations as do 'blackbox' machine learning (ML) and traditional, interpretable models. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality with complex sociodemographic dynamics that have not been analyzed in a way that leverages population-level and individual-level data as well as traditional epidemiological and ML models. We analyzed complementary individual-level and county-level datasets with both regression and ML methods to study the association between sociodemographic factors and DM., Research Design and Methods: County-level DM prevalence, demographics, and socioeconomic status (SES) factors were extracted from the 2018 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings and merged with US Census data. Analogous individual-level data were extracted from 2007 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey studies and corrected for oversampling with survey weights. We used multivariate linear (logistic) regression and ML regression (classification) models for county (individual) data. Regression and ML models were compared using measures of explained variation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and R 2 )., Results: Among the 3138 counties assessed, the mean DM prevalence was 11.4% (range: 3.0%-21.1%). Among the 12 824 individuals assessed, 1688 met DM criteria (13.2% unweighted; 10.2% weighted). Age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, and education were associated with DM at the county and individual levels. Higher county Hispanic ethnic density was negatively associated with county DM prevalence, while Hispanic ethnicity was positively associated with individual DM. ML outperformed regression in both datasets (mean R 2 of 0.679 vs 0.610, respectively (p<0.001) for county-level data; mean AUC of 0.737 vs 0.727 (p<0.0427) for individual-level data)., Conclusions: Hispanic individuals are at higher risk of DM, while counties with larger Hispanic populations have lower DM prevalence. Analyses of population-level and individual-level data with multiple methods may afford more confidence in results and identify areas for further study., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DMM acts as an advisor for Sanofi-Aventis US LLC, Novo Nordisk Inc, WL Gore and Associates, Inc, and Medtronic Minimed, Inc. DS acts as an advisor for Carta Healthcare. No other potential conflicts of interest relevant to this article were reported., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: E-values are a recently introduced approach to evaluate confounding in observational studies. We aimed to empirically assess the current use of E-values in published literature., Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search for all publications, published up till the end of 2018, which cited at least one of two inceptive E-value papers and presented E-values for original data. For these case publications we identified control publications, matched by journal and issue, where the authors had not calculated E-values., Results: In total, 87 papers presented 516 E-values. Of the 87 papers, 14 concluded that residual confounding likely threatens at least some of the main conclusions. Seven of these 14 named potential uncontrolled confounders. 19 of 87 papers related E-value magnitudes to expected strengths of field-specific confounders. The median E-value was 1.88, 1.82, and 2.02 for the 43, 348, and 125 E-values where confounding was felt likely to affect the results, unlikely to affect the results, or not commented upon, respectively. The 69 case-control publication pairs dealt with effect sizes of similar magnitude. Of 69 control publications, 52 did not comment on unmeasured confounding and 44/69 case publications concluded that confounding was unlikely to affect study conclusions., Conclusions: Few papers using E-values conclude that confounding threatens their results, and their E-values overlap in magnitude with those of papers acknowledging susceptibility to confounding. Facile automation in calculating E-values may compound the already poor handling of confounding. E-values should not be a substitute for careful consideration of potential sources of unmeasured confounding. If used, they should be interpreted in the context of expected confounding in specific fields., (© The Author(s) 2020; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Fatigue often triggers screening for and treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism. However, data on the impact of levothyroxine on fatigue is limited and previous studies might not have captured all aspects of fatigue., Method: This study is nested within the randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter TRUST trial, including community-dwelling participants aged ≥65 and older, with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH 4.60-19.99 mIU/L, normal free thyroxine levels) from Switzerland and Ireland. Interventions consisted of daily levothyroxine starting with 50 μg (25 μg if weight <50 kg or known coronary heart diseases) together with dose adjustments to achieve a normal TSH and mock titration in the placebo group. Main outcome was the change in physical and mental fatigability using the Pittsburgh Fatigability Scale over 1 year, assessed through multivariable linear regression with adjustment for country, sex, and levothyroxine starting dose., Results: Among 230 participants, the mean ± standard deviation (SD) TSH was 6.2 ± 1.9 mIU/L at baseline and decreased to 3.1 ± 1.3 with LT4 (n = 119) versus 5.3 ± 2.3 with placebo (n = 111, p < .001) after 1 year. After adjustment we found no between-group difference at 1 year on perceived physical (0.2; 95% CI -1.8 to 2.1; p = .88), or mental fatigability (-1.0; 95% CI -2.8 to 0.8; p = .26). In participants with higher fatigability at baseline (≥15 points for the physical score [n = 88] or ≥13 points for the mental score [n = 41]), the adjusted between-group differences at 1 year were 0.4 (95% CI -3.6 to 2.8, p = .79) and -2.2 (95% CI -8.8 to 4.5, p = .51)., Conclusions: Levothyroxine in older adults with mild subclinical hypothyroidism provides no change in physical or mental fatigability., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To determine whether cerebral small vessel disease or disability modify the effect of SBP treatment on cognitive and vascular outcomes in older patients with recent lacunar stroke., Methods: Participants aged at least 65 years of the Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes Trial were randomized to a higher (130-149 mmHg) or lower (<130 mmHg) SBP target. The primary outcome was change in cognitive function (Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument); secondary outcomes were incident mild cognitive impairment, stroke, major vascular events (all-stroke, myocardial infarction), and all-cause death. Results were stratified by severity of white matter hyperintensities (WMH; none/mild, moderate, severe) on baseline MRI, and by disability (no vs. at least one limitation in activities of daily living)., Results: One thousand, two hundred and sixty-three participants (mean age 73.8 ± 5.9 years, 40% women) were included. Participants with severe WMH or disability had worse cognitive function at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. No significant interactions existed between treatment group and effect modifiers (WMH, disability) for change in cognitive function (P for interaction 0.42 and 0.66, respectively). A lower SBP target appeared more beneficial among those with worse WMH burden for vascular outcomes (P for interaction = 0.01 for stroke and 0.03 for major vascular events)., Conclusion: There was no difference in the effect of lowering SBP to less than 130 mmHg on cognitive function by cerebral small vessel disease or disability among older adults with a history of lacunar stroke. Those with evidence of small vessel disease may derive greater benefit from lower SBP on prevention of subsequent vascular events., Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00059306.