Search

Risk perception is an essential element to consider for effective risk management at time of eruption, especially in densely populated cities close to volcanoes. The city of Goma in the East of the DR Congo is one these cities highly exposed to volcanic hazards and highly populated. The perception of volcanic risk involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of volcanic hazards. Using a questionnaire survey, this study describes the spatial variation and factors influencing the individual volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults from height representative neighbourhoods of the city of Goma before the May 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. A composite risk perception indicator was built from the perceived likelihood of occurrence of volcanic hazards and of their impacts and from the perceived likelihood of being personally impacted. Statistical analysis of survey’s results shows that the risk perception is mostly shaped by risk cognitive and psychological factors rather than demographic factors (group, family status and previous risk experience). Perceived personal exposure to and predictive power of environmental cues (sights and sounds that are considered to indicate a hazard onset) positively shape risk perception. The higher the level of personal understanding and interest in seeking risk information, the higher the risk perception. In addition, risk perception leads to high level of anxiety. Finally, the spatial analysis shows that the highest level of risk perception was observed in the eastern part of the city, previously impacted by lava flows in 2002.

Disasters induced by natural hazards are increasing globally and have severe impacts. Some of these hazards, as volcanic eruptions, are related to the earth's interior mechanisms and cannot be prevented. Thereby, risk mitigation is the best strategy for reducing their impacts in densely populated areas, such as the city of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, exposed to volcanic threats from Nyiragongo. This requires the population to be prepared to respond to volcanic risk, by having a high state of awareness, anticipation, and readiness. “Living with a volcano” should be one of the life skills all Goma children acquire during their schooling, regardless of where they attend school. Therefore, this study used a mixed-method approach (questionnaire survey, focus group and written composition) to assess the awareness raising impact of two educational tools recently implemented in Goma for secondary students: the Hazagora serious game and the volcano museum. Several students (402 in total) from 12 schools participated in one of these risk awareness activities, while other students were assessed as controls. Results indicate that the tools have a positive impact on students’ volcanic disaster understanding, their risk perception, and their implication in DRR initiatives. Specifically, the volcano museum increases knowledge of volcanic process more than the Hazagora serious game; the latter increases more the perceived self-capacities and willingness of implementing protective measures. Risk perception raises almost identically with both tools. In general, participants indicate that they receive sufficient scientific information throughout the Hazagora serious game and the volcano museum visit to better understand the physical mechanisms of volcanic hazards and their impacts on human properties and livelihood. In addition, they claim to have received relevant information on protective measures and abilities, and to be willing to search for additional risk information. This study highlights that the two tools are complementary; thus, awareness raising through a diversity of tools can be more effective than a single and isolated activity.

During a volcanic eruption generating lava flows, an effective risk reduction action is evacuation. However, if the eruption is not preceded by precursors, such as the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption, the population living near the volcano is confronted with the need to rapidly decide by themselves whether to evacuate or not; and if so, where and how. On the evening of 22 May, a red glow on the south flank of Nyiragongo alerted the population of Goma (East DRC) that an eruption had started. There were no clear instructions from the authorities. On that night, part of the population evacuated spontaneously, and returned the following day as the lava had stopped flowing. In the following week, intense seismic shocks affecting the city led the Governor to order on May 26 an evacuation of the eastern neighbourhoods. Using a qualitative survey associated with a quantitative one among 1.137 adults residing in both mandatory and non-mandatory evacuation zones, this study analyses individual evacuation decision making during both volcano-seismic phases of the 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. The results of the statistical analyses indicate that the population in the north-eastern neighbourhoods evacuated spontaneously on the night of the eruption without prior knowledge of their destination. Their preferred destination was relatives’ homes for resources, either outside the city or in another neighbourhood. The decision to evacuate was not influenced by an individual risk assessment, but by the family safety. Following the May 26 evacuation order, the majority of households evacuated while maintaining at least one person to house sit. Fear of earthquakes was the main reason for evacuation but those who did not evacuate considered the risk to be lower, compared to the 2002 experience. The results of this study will improve the Goma contingency and evacuation plans in the event of a new volcanic eruption.

Risk perception is an essential element to consider for effective risk management at time of eruption, especially in densely populated cities close to volcanoes. The city of Goma in the East of the DR Congo is one these cities highly exposed to volcanic hazards and highly populated. The perception of volcanic risk involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of volcanic hazards. Using a questionnaire survey, this study describes the spatial variation and factors influencing the individual volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults from height representative neighbourhoods of the city of Goma before the May 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. A composite risk perception indicator was built from the perceived likelihood of occurrence of volcanic hazards and of their impacts and from the perceived likelihood of being personally impacted. Statistical analysis of survey’s results shows that the risk perception is mostly shaped by risk cognitive and psychological factors rather than demographic factors (group, family status and previous risk experience). Perceived personal exposure to and predictive power of environmental cues (sights and sounds that are considered to indicate a hazard onset) positively shape risk perception. The higher the level of personal understanding and interest in seeking risk information, the higher the risk perception. In addition, risk perception leads to high level of anxiety. Finally, the spatial analysis shows that the highest level of risk perception was observed in the eastern part of the city, previously impacted by lava flows in 2002.

The city of Goma is located in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo. With around one million inhabitants, it is built on lava flows, 15 km south of the active Nyiragongo volcano. Historically, the town was affected twice by eruptions, in 1977 and 2002 and severe destructions were reported. At that time, no volcanic risk preparedness and management tools had been implemented, and communication during and after the eruption was not consistent enough to avoid panic and human casualties. Without an appropriate and accurate risk communication, people may adopt a behavior which can put them at risk, by increasing their vulnerability. Nineteen years after the last disaster, risk management still have to develop an effective risk preparedness strategy and integrate risk awareness raising tools. The aim of this ongoing doctoral research is the assessment of risk culture, building upon a risk perception assessment and identification of risk reduction measures to be enhanced.A survey of 2224 adults among the general population of Goma was conducted in eight representative neighborhoods in order to assess the risk perception, the experience of the risk communication as well as the risk preparedness of inhabitants. We here present a first analysis of the results regarding the risk communication challenges. Goma is a dynamic town with a young population (80% are under 45 years old), living in relatively poor and large family (51% of households have 4-7 members and 31% 8-11 members; 57% of household have an income between 0-250$), with rather low education (47% is secondary level and 34% graduated). Language is one of the volcanic risk communication challenges in Goma: apart from French as the official language, Swahili as local, and English imposed by the large humanitarian sector, there are many dialects. Moreover, most communication tools are informal (social networks, friends and relatives…) and inhabitants mostly look for information on religion (22%), health (15%) and politics (12%), but not so much about risk reduction. Local radio (24%), television (14,5%) and social networks (13%) are the most preferred information channels. The city of Goma is also very dynamic: with a high migration rate, the population is growing and renewing itself regularly, to the point that risk communication must take into account the newcomers in order to be efficient. Additionally, our survey shows that experience of disasters and trust in decision-makers also provide a basis for effective risk communication.By presenting, as examples, the communication chain during the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, as well as a more recent example of miscommunication due to the publication, in the general public press, of a scientific article with significant uncertainties in eruption forecast modelling (leading to misinterpretation by non-expert readers), we will demonstrate that the cascading reactions may have consequences putting risk decision-makers and scientists in a difficult position, by provoking a feeling of mistrust and doubt among the population. Based on the Goma case study, we will show that risk communication in the global south is a major risk management challenge with complex issues.