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We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion that reflects its willingness to engage in risky behavior (e.g., not wearing a mask in a crowded area) or reduce it (e.g., social distancing). We consider SIS epidemic dynamics in which the contact rate within a population adapts as a function of its opinion. For the new coupled model, we prove the existence of two distinct parameter regimes. One regime corresponds to a low baseline infectiousness, and the equilibria of the epidemic spread are identical to those of the standard SIS model. The other regime corresponds to a high baseline infectiousness, and there is a bistability between two new endemic equilibria that reflect an initial preference towards either risk seeking behavior or risk aversion. We prove that risk seeking behavior increases the steady-state infection level in the population compared to the baseline SIS model, whereas risk aversion decreases it. When a population is highly reactive to extreme opinions, we show how risk aversion enables the complete eradication of infection in the population. Extensions of the model to a network of populations or individuals are explored numerically.

Multi-agent systems in biology, society, and engineering are capable of making decisions through the dynamic interaction of their elements. Nonlinearity of the interactions is key for the speed, robustness, and flexibility of multi-agent decision-making. In this work we introduce modulatory, that is, multiplicative, in contrast to additive, interactions in a nonlinear opinion dynamics model of fast-and-flexible decision-making. The original model is nonlinear because network interactions, although additive, are saturated. Modulatory interactions introduce an extra source of nonlinearity that greatly enriches the model decision-making behavior in a mathematically tractable way. Modulatory interactions are widespread in both biological and social decision-making networks; our model provides new tools to understand the role of these interactions in networked decision-making and to engineer them in artificial systems., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, submitted to American Control Conference 2025

This paper addresses the problem of adaptively controlling the bias parameter in nonlinear opinion dynamics (NOD) to allocate agents into groups of arbitrary sizes for the purpose of maximizing collective rewards. In previous work, an algorithm based on the coupling of NOD with an multi-objective behavior optimization was successfully deployed as part of a multi-robot system in an autonomous task allocation field experiment. Motivated by the field results, in this paper we propose and analyze a new task allocation model that synthesizes NOD with an evolutionary game framework. We prove sufficient conditions under which it is possible to control the opinion state in the group to a desired allocation of agents between two tasks through an adaptive bias using decentralized feedback. We then verify the theoretical results with a simulation study of a collaborative evolutionary division of labor game., Comment: v1) To appear at the 2024 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) in Milan, Italy. 8 Pages, 5 Figures. v2) Fixed typo

This paper studies community detection for a nonlinear opinion dynamics model from its equilibria. It is assumed that the underlying network is generated from a stochastic block model with two communities, where agents are assigned with community labels and edges are added independently based on these labels. Agents update their opinions following a nonlinear rule that incorporates saturation effects on interactions. It is shown that clustering based on a single equilibrium can detect most community labels (i.e., achieving almost exact recovery), if the two communities differ in size and link probabilities. When the two communities are identical in size and link probabilities, and the inter-community connections are denser than intra-community ones, the algorithm can achieve almost exact recovery under negative influence weights but fails under positive influence weights. Utilizing fixed point equations and spectral methods, we also propose a detection algorithm based on multiple equilibria, which can detect communities with positive influence weights. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction is a dimensionality reduction technique in nonlinear systems analysis that is commonly utilised in the study of bifurcation problems in high-dimensional systems. The method is a systematic procedure for reducing the dimensionality of systems of algebraic equations that have singular points, preserving essential features of their solution sets. In this article, we establish estimates for the region of validity of the reduction by leveraging recently derived bounds on the Implicit Function Theorem. We then apply these bounds to an illustrative example of a two-dimensional system with a pitchfork bifurcation., Comment: This is the final manuscript accepted for presentation at the 63rd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, scheduled to be held in Milan, Italy, in December 2024

We present and analyze an actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) model of interconnected populations to study how risk aversion strategies, such as social distancing, affect network epidemics. A population using a risk aversion strategy reduces its contact rate with other populations when it perceives an increase in infection risk. The network actSIS model relies on two distinct networks. One is a physical contact network that defines which populations come into contact with which other populations and thus how infection spreads. The other is a communication network, such as an online social network, that defines which populations observe the infection level of which other populations and thus how information spreads. We prove that the model, with these two networks and populations using risk aversion strategies, exhibits a transcritical bifurcation in which an endemic equilibrium emerges. For regular graphs, we prove that the endemic infection level is uniform across populations and reduced by the risk aversion strategy, relative to the network SIS endemic level. We show that when communication is sufficiently sparse, this initially stable equilibrium loses stability in a secondary bifurcation. Simulations show that a new stable solution emerges with nonuniform infection levels.

We propose and analyze a nonlinear dynamic model of continuous-time multi-dimensional belief formation over signed social networks. Our model accounts for the effects of a structured belief system, self-appraisal, internal biases, and various sources of cognitive dissonance posited by recent theories in social psychology. We prove that agents become opinionated as a consequence of a bifurcation. We analyze how the balance of social network effects in the model controls the nature of the bifurcation and, therefore, the belief-forming limit-set solutions. Our analysis provides constructive conditions on how multi-stable network belief equilibria and belief oscillations emerging at a belief-forming bifurcation depend on the communication network graph and belief system network graph. Our model and analysis provide new theoretical insights on the dynamics of social systems and a new principled framework for designing decentralized decision-making on engineered networks in the presence of structured relationships among alternatives., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures

We study the dynamics of belief formation on multiple interconnected topics in networks of agents with a shared belief system. We establish sufficient conditions and necessary conditions under which sustained oscillations of beliefs arise on the network in a Hopf bifurcation and characterize the role of the communication graph and the belief system graph in shaping the relative phase and amplitude patterns of the oscillations. Additionally, we distinguish broad classes of graphs that exhibit such oscillations from those that do not., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in the 2023 American Control Conference proceedings

How does a group of agents break indecision when deciding about options with qualities that are hard to distinguish? Biological and artificial multi-agent systems, from honeybees and bird flocks to bacteria, robots, and humans, often need to overcome indecision when choosing among options in situations in which the performance or even the survival of the group are at stake. Breaking indecision is also important because in a fully indecisive state agents are not biased toward any specific option and therefore the agent group is maximally sensitive and prone to adapt to inputs and changes in its environment. Here, we develop a mathematical theory to study how decisions arise from the breaking of indecision. Our approach is grounded in both equivariant and network bifurcation theory. We model decision from indecision as synchrony-breaking in influence networks in which each node is the value assigned by an agent to an option. First, we show that three universal decision behaviors, namely, deadlock, consensus, and dissensus, are the generic outcomes of synchrony-breaking bifurcations from a fully synchronous state of indecision in influence networks. Second, we show that all deadlock and consensus value patterns and some dissensus value patterns are predicted by the symmetry of the influence networks. Third, we show that there are also many `exotic' dissensus value patterns. These patterns are predicted by network architecture, but not by network symmetries, through a new synchrony-breaking branching lemma. This is the first example of exotic solutions in an application. Numerical simulations of a novel influence network model illustrate our theoretical results., Comment: 36 pages

We propose a new decentralized design method to control opinion patterns on signed networks of agents making decisions about two options and to switch the network from any opinion pattern to a new desired one. Our method relies on switching transformations, which switch the sign of an agent's opinion at a stable equilibrium by flipping the sign of its local interactions with its neighbors. The global dynamical behavior of the switched network can be predicted rigorously when the original, and thus the witched, networks are structurally balanced. Structural balance ensures that the network dynamics are monotone, which makes the study of the basin of attraction of the various opinion patterns amenable to rigorous analysis through monotone systems theory. We illustrate the utility of the approach through scenarios motivated by multi-robot coordination and dynamic task allocation.

We examine the tuning of cooperative behavior in repeated multi-agent games using an analytically tractable, continuous-time, nonlinear model of opinion dynamics. Each modeled agent updates its real-valued opinion about each available strategy in response to payoffs and other agent opinions, as observed over a network. We show how the model provides a principled and systematic means to investigate behavior of agents that select strategies using rationality and reciprocity, key features of human decision-making in social dilemmas. For two-strategy games, we use bifurcation analysis to prove conditions for the bistability of two equilibria and conditions for the first (second) equilibrium to reflect all agents favoring the first (second) strategy. We prove how model parameters, e.g., level of attention to opinions of others (reciprocity), network structure, and payoffs, influence dynamics and, notably, the size of the region of attraction to each stable equilibrium. We provide insights by examining the tuning of the bistability of mutual cooperation and mutual defection and their regions of attraction for the repeated prisoner's dilemma and the repeated multi-agent public goods game. Our results generalize to games with more strategies, heterogeneity, and additional feedback dynamics, such as those designed to elicit cooperation.

For a group of autonomous communicating agents, the ability to distinguish a meaningful input from disturbance, and come to collective agreement or disagreement in response to that input, is paramount for carrying out coordinated objectives. In this work we study how a cascade of opinion formation spreads through a group of networked decision-makers in response to a distributed input signal. Using a nonlinear opinion dynamics model with dynamic feedback modulation of an attention parameter, we show how the triggering of an opinion cascade and the collective decision itself depend on both the distributed input and the node agreement and disagreement centrality, determined by the spectral properties of the network graph. We further show how the attention dynamics introduce an implicit threshold that distinguishes between distributed inputs that trigger cascades and ones that are rejected as disturbance., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures

We introduce and analyze a continuous time and state-space model of opinion cascades on networks of large numbers of agents that form opinions about two or more options. By leveraging our recent results on the emergence of agreement and disagreement states, we introduce novel tools to analyze and control agreement and disagreement opinion cascades. New notions of agreement and disagreement centrality, which depend only on network structure, are shown to be key to characterizing the nonlinear behavior of agreement and disagreement opinion formation and cascades. Our results are relevant for the analysis and control of opinion cascades in real-world networks, including biological, social and artificial networks, and for the design of opinion-forming behaviors in robotic swarms. We illustrate an application of our model to a multi-robot task-allocation problem and discuss extensions and future directions opened by our modeling framework.

When communicating agents form opinions about a set of possible options, agreement and disagreement are both possible outcomes. Depending on the context, either can be desirable or undesirable. We show that for nonlinear opinion dynamics on networks, and a variety of network structures, the spectral properties of the underlying adjacency matrix fully characterize the occurrence of either agreement or disagreement. We further show how the corresponding eigenvector centrality, as well as any symmetry in the network, informs the resulting patterns of opinion formation and agent sensitivity to input that triggers opinion cascades., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; accepted to appear in 2021 American Control Conference proceedings

We propose a continuous-time multi-option nonlinear generalization of classical linear weighted-average opinion dynamics. Nonlinearity is introduced by saturating opinion exchanges, and this is enough to enable a significantly greater range of opinion-forming behaviors with our model as compared to existing linear and nonlinear models. For a group of agents that communicate opinions over a network, these behaviors include multistable agreement and disagreement, tunable sensitivity to input, robustness to disturbance, flexible transition between patterns of opinions, and opinion cascades. We derive network-dependent tuning rules to robustly control the system behavior and we design state-feedback dynamics for the model parameters to make the behavior adaptive to changing external conditions.} The model provides new means for systematic study of dynamics on natural and engineered networks, from information spread and political polarization to collective decision making and dynamic task allocation.

We develop a model-independent framework to study the dynamics of decision-making in opinion networks for an arbitrary number of agents and an arbitrary number of options. Model-independence means that the analysis is not performed on a specific set of equations, in contrast to classical approaches to decision making that fix a specific model and analyze it. Rather, the general features of decision making in dynamical opinion networks can be derived starting from empirically testable hypotheses about the deciding agents, the available options, and the interactions among them. After translating these empirical hypotheses into algebraic ones, we use the tools of equivariant bifurcation theory to uncover model-independent properties of dynamical opinion networks. The model-independent results are illustrated on a novel analytical model that is constructed by plugging a generic sigmoidal nonlinearity, modeling boundedness of opinions and opinion perception, into the model-independent equivariant structure. Our analysis reveals richer and more flexible opinion-formation behavior as compared to model-dependent approaches. For instance, analysis reveals the possibility of switching between consensus and various forms of dissensus by modulation of the level of agent cooperativity and without requiring any particular ad-hoc interaction topology (e.g., structural balance). From a theoretical viewpoint, we prove new results in equivariant bifurcation theory. We construct an exhaustive list of axial subgroups for the action of $\ES_n \times \ES_3$ on $\R^{n-1}\otimes\R^{2}$. We also generalize this list to the action of $\ES_n \times \ES_k$ on $\R^{n-1}\otimes \R^{k-1}$, i.e., for $n$ agents and $k$ options, although without proving that in this case the list is exhaustive.