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Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI), The Government of Indonesia and FAO have recognized the need for thorough analysis and modelling of Indonesia’s agrifood systems to support agrifood systems transformation efforts in the country. This is needed to provide a better understanding of the governance context in agrifood systems, including the political economy dynamics influencing performance, as well as to identify synergies and trade-offs across different policy goals and optimal policy mixes for achieving multiple policy objectives. In this regard, FAO facilitated a project to pilot an innovative approach to modelling for food systems transformation. This modelling approach was developed and implemented by a team of researchers from IFPRI, IIASA, IISD and Christian-Albrechts- University of Kiel. It uses three different economic models to generate insights that can assist Indonesian policymakers in developing technically sound and politically feasible policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation. This report provides context for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and describes the overall modelling approach before synthesizing the results of the individual modelling activities and distilling these into the overall findings of the modelling. It concludes with implications from these findings for policymaking for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and suggestions for the next steps. The results of this modelling and the insights drawn from these results are expected to support efforts to translate Indonesia’s commitments on agrifood systems transformation into concrete policy interventions and to inform medium- and long-term development planning by the Indonesian Government.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all, Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy, The world is not on track to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. The prevalence of hunger and poverty—the two core goals which are the litmus test for everything else—are on the rise. This is being made worse by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, skyrocketing food, fertilizer, and energy prices, COVID-19, and climate change. In Africa, the situation is exacerbated by internal conflicts, political unrest, economic recessions, and swarms of desert locusts. To get back on track, it is critical to pursue policy pathways that encourage synergies and limit the trade-offs between hunger, poverty, nutrition, and climate change. This report summarizes the evidence-based and costed country roadmaps for effective public interventions to transform agriculture and food systems in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in a way that ends hunger, makes diets healthier and more affordable, improves the productivity and incomes of small-scale producers and their households, and mitigates and adapts to climate change. The financing gap is immense. This report shows that while it is possible to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria, in the next decade, it would require an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030 and targeting spending on a more effective portfolio of interventions that achieve multiple sustainable development outcomes. Of the total USD 10 billion, the donor share averages USD 5.8 billion per year, and the country share averages USD 4.2 billion per year. Importantly, comparing the financing gap between the long-term investment needed to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 and the short-term investment needed for emergency food assistance shows that while emergency assistance has increased in recent years, there is significant underfunding of the longer-term investment needs. The shortfall in longer-term funding increases the vulnerability to shocks, pushing the numb

Non-PR, 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; IFPRI2, MTID, Achieving the 2030 Agenda and the goals on addressing hunger, such as Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, integrated and policy-relevant tools are needed to identify specific interventions and costs to assist with SDG 2 and another SDG implementation. Motivated by the need for tools to support evidence-based policy-making, three partner organizations—Cornell University, the International Food Policy Research Institute and the International Institute for Sustainable Development—formed a three-year partnership in 2018 called Ceres2030: Sustainable Solutions to End Hunger, with a focus on the targets of SDG 2. Drawing from the results from Ceres2030, this paper helps broadens the evidence base for effective interventions using a top-down macroeconomic model to evaluate and cost a portfolio of diverse actions, related trade-offs, and synergies to achieve the SDG targets. In addition, the research also assists by outlining ways of combining grey and peer- reviewed literature to improve evidence-based decision making by assisting policy-makers and donor agencies in allocating costs to policy options over the next decade necessary to achieve SDG 2 targets.

PR, IFPRI3; DCA; Ceres2030; CRP5; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Land Resource Management for Poverty Reduction, EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE), Farmers’ organizations (FOs), such as associations, cooperatives, self-help and women’s groups, are common in developing countries and provide services that are widely viewed as contributing to income and productivity for small-scale producers. Here, we conducted a scoping review of the literature on FO services and their impacts on small-scale producers in sub-Saharan Africa and India. Most reviewed studies (57%) reported positive FO impacts on farmer income, but much fewer reported positive impacts on crop yield (19%) and production quality (20%). Environmental benefits, such as resilience-building and improved water quality and quantity were documented in 24% of the studies. Our analysis indicates that having access to markets through information, infrastructure, and logistical support at the centre of FO design could help integrate FOs into policy. Natural resource management should also be more widely incorporated in the services provided by FOs to mitigate risks associated with environmental degradation and climate change. Finally, farmers who are already marginalized because of poor education, land access, social status and market accessibility may require additional support systems to improve their capacities, skills and resources before they are able to benefit from FO membership.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; Capacity Strengthening; CRP2; C Improving markets and trade, MTID; PIM, 16 pages, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), We are at a major turning point in history. For the first time ever the world has committed to ending hunger. Not to reduce or halve it—but to end hunger. When world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in September 2015, they agreed that this should be done by 2030. The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) joined forces to estimate what it would cost to end hunger, and the contribution that donors need to make. We consider that a country has achieved this goal when the number of hungry people is less than 5 per cent of the population. This follows the approach used in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN’s (FAO’s) State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI) report, which use the same threshold.