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Combined twitter & MP info dataset on the MPs of 42nd Canadian parliament

This analysis focuses on aviation biofuel production using fast pyrolysis from corn stover. Cellulosic biofuels carry a lot of risks, because conversion technology is expensive. As a result, incentives are needed to reduce the risk for private investors. The issue is choosing which policy will provide the most reduction in risk, while providing a lowest cost to the government. Uncertainty is added in benefit-cost analysis to fuel price and four technical variables: capital cost, final fuel yield, hydrogen cost, and feedstock cost. We look at the impact of two policies: reverse auction and capital subsidy. For the reverse auction and capital subsidy, we used contract lengths of 5, 10, and 15 years to see the impact a longer contract could have on the probability of loss. A reverse auction reduced more risk of investment. As the contract length increased, the probability of loss and coefficient of variation in net present value were reduced substantially. When fuel price increased stochastically and a contract length of 15 years was used, the probability of loss was reduced to 18.4 percent., More details about this study: DOI: 10.1002/bbb.1536

Greenhouse gas emissions have been a growing concern. The transportation sector contributes to one-third of GHG emissions in the United States from fossil fuel burning. The Renewable Fuel Standard set a requirement for 16 billion gallons (ethanol equivalent) of cellulosic biofuels to be used in the market. Aviation biofuels can help to meet both of these problems as well as improve U.S. energy security. Investment in the biofuel industry carries a lot of risk. The biofuel industry is run by the private sector, but can be incentivized by government. Cellulosic biofuels carry even more risk than first generation biofuels, because conversion technology is more expensive. As a result, incentives are needed to reduce the risk for private investors. Government can implement policies to reduce the risk in investment in aviation biofuels. The issue is choosing which policy will provide the most reduction in risk, while providing a lowest cost to the government. This analysis focuses on aviation biofuel production using fast pyrolysis from corn stover. Cost benefit analysis is used to calculate the net present value, internal rate of return, and benefit-cost ratio for a plant. We look at deterministic and stochastic cases. For the stochastic cases, this study uses @Risk, a Palisades Corporation software to determine the risk of investment in aviation biofuels. Uncertainty is added to fuel price and four technical variables: capital cost, final fuel yield, hydrogen cost, and feedstock cost. The fuel price can be steady or increasing at DOE projections. We look at the impact of three policies: reverse auction, competitive capital subsidy, and carbon tax. For the reverse auction and capital subsidy, we used contract lengths of 5, 10, and 15 years to see the impact a longer contract could have on probability of loss. All three policies reduced risk in investment of aviation biofuels. A reverse auction reduced risk of investment the most. As the contract length increased, the probability of loss and coefficient of variation in net present value were reduced substantially. When fuel price increased stochastically and a contract length of 15 years was used, probability of loss was reduced to 9.9 percent.

Campaign organizers and the media appear to agree that voters’ perceptions of party leaders have an important impact on the vote: substantial effort is made to ensure that leaders look good, that they speak well, and that they are up in the polls. Media reports during election campaigns focus on the horserace and how leaders are perceived in the public eye. In contrast, the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors (such as partisanship and the economy) perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact. Problematically, the literature on party leaders is diverse and non-cumulative. Existing studies have been based primarily upon the analysis of only a single election and scholars have relied upon different survey questions in varying formats to inform their conclusions. These differences have resulted in the inconclusiveness of the literature. An effective evaluation of the role of party leaders requires a larger study, comparative across both time and space. This study incorporates data from 35 separate election studies across a number of countries with varying institutional environments. It takes both a broad and in-depth look at evaluations of party leaders. I make five main conclusions. First, voters evaluate leaders’ traits in relation to two dimensions: character and competence. Second, partisanship and ideology have a substantial influence on voters’ perceptions of party leaders, whereas issue attitudes and socio-demographics play a more minimal role. Third, voters perceive leaders through the lens of a partisan stereotype, in which Conservative leaders are seen to be more competent,and leaders of Left parties are perceived to have more character. Fourth, political sophistication has a substantial effect on the way that voters perceive party leaders, as well as affecting the impact of those perceptions on vote choice. Fifth and finally, leaders matter— they have an influential effect on the individual vote calculus, as well as having a discernible impact on electoral outcomes.

The 1993 Canadian Federal Election marked a turning point in the Canadian political system, with the emergence of two new political parties, the decimation of the oldest party in Canada, and the beginning of more than a decade of Liberal dominance. A number of explanations have been put forth by scholars since 1993, and this study explores one possible explanation for the outcome of this election, by looking at the role of expectations in the campaign. There is growing evidence that voters incorporate more than political ideology or impressions of political parties into their decision-making processes, that campaigns do matter, and that voters are thinking forward to electoral outcomes when marking their ballots. A number of statistical models are incorporated into this study, in order to look at the pattern, sources, and impact of expectations in 1993. In sum, the data indicate that expectations did indeed play a role in influencing the outcome of the election, in particular, in influencing the vote for the Reform Party.