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To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01190.x Byline: Rebecca Moore (1), Richard C. Bishop (2), Bill Provencher (3), Patricia A. Champ (4) Abstract: In this paper, we develop an econometric model of willingness to pay (WTP) that integrates data on respondent uncertainty regarding their own WTP. The integration is utility consistent, there is no recoding of variables, and no need to calibrate the contingent responses to actual payment data, so the approach can 'stand alone.' In an application to a valuation study related to whooping crane restoration, we find that this model generates a statistically lower expected WTP than the standard contingent valuation (CV) model. Moreover, the WTP function estimated with this model is not statistically different from that estimated using actual payment data suggesting that, when properly analyzed using data on respondent uncertainty, CV decisions can simulate actual payment decisions. This method allows for more reliable estimates of WTP that incorporate respondent uncertainty without the need for collecting comparable actual payment data. Dans le present article, nous avons elabore un modele econometrique d'estimation qui internalise l'incertitude des repondants quant a leur propre consentement a payer. L'internalisation est fidele a la notion 'd'utilite'; il n'a pas ete necessaire de transformer les variables ni de calibrer les reponses des repondants avec des paiements reels. L'application de la methode n'est donc pas dependante d'autres donnees ou methodes. Dans une etude d'evaluation sur le retablissement de la grue blanche d'Amerique dans laquelle ce modele a ete utilise, nous avons trouve que le consentement a payer attendu etait statistiquement plus faible que celui obtenu a l'aide de la methode d'evaluation contingente standard. Par ailleurs, la fonction de consentement a payer estimee a l'aide de ce modele n'est pas statistiquement differente de celle estimee a l'aide de paiements reels. Cette observation autorise a penser que, lorsque le modele tient compte des donnees sur l'incertitude des repondants, les decisions obtenues a l'aide de la methode d'evaluation contingente peuvent simuler les decisions obtenues a l'aide de paiements reels. Cette methode permet d'obtenir des estimations du consentement a payer plus fiables, lesquelles integrent l'incertitude des repondants sans la necessite de collecter des donnees comparables de paiements reels. Author Affiliation: (1)Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 E. Green St., Athens, GA 30602 (corresponding author: phone: 706-583-8932; fax: 706-542-8356; e-mail:RMoore@warnell.uga.edu). (2)Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Stratus Consulting, 2112 Regent St., Madison, WI 53726 (phone: 608-262-8916; fax: 608-262-4376; e-mail:rcbishop@wisc.edu). (3)Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, 427 Lorch St., Madison, WI 53706 (phone: 608-262-9494; fax: 608-262-4376; e-mail:rwproven@wisc.edu). (4)Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, 2150 Centre Ave., Bldg A, Fort Collins, CO 80526 (phone: 970-295-5967; fax: 970-295-5959; e-mail:pchamp@fs.fed.us).

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2004.09.005 Byline: Thomas A. Heberlein (a), Matthew A. Wilson (b), Richard C. Bishop (c), Nora Cate Schaeffer (d) Keywords: Contingent valuation; Validity; Embedding; Scope test; Wolves; Water quality; Biodiversity Abstract: The scope test is widely recommended as a way to evaluate the validity of contingent valuation (CV) studies. We measured contingent values of parts and wholes for four different environmental goods and applied the conventional scope test. In addition, the study design allowed examination of scope relationships for individual respondents. We also used social psychological theory to expand the definition of scope to include attitudinal and behavioral scope. Looking at the individual responses showed that conventional economic scope test results, which depend on comparisons of average values, can hide important relationships that are relevant to the validity of CV studies. We showed that, as a validity test, the conventional scope test can lead to false positives and false negatives. We are led to question the efficacy and cost effectiveness of making scope tests a routine part of validity assessment in applied CV studies. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 348b Agriculture Hall, 1450 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA (b) School of Business Administration, and The Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, USA (c) Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA (d) Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA Article History: Received 12 July 2002; Revised 27 August 2003; Accepted 30 September 2004

The forecasting performance of a number of static random utility models of Lake Michigan salmon anglers is compared. The results reveal that both the random parameters logit (RPL) and latent class logit (LCL) models forecast equally well, by at least one measure the logit model outperforms them both, and also raise the possibility that recreational fishing decisions have a dynamic component.