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Abstract Background Chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) is a common condition worldwide. The disease burden is influenced not only by pain itself, but also by psychiatric co-morbidities, which aggravate symptoms, generally negatively influence therapies, and may thereby lead to frustration, resignation, or withdrawal. A growing body of evidence suggests that sex and gender aspects influence CNCP management as the experience of pain, the emotions associated with it, and the expression of pain may differ between women and men. In addition, doctor-patient communication is known to be influenced by gender stereotypes. Despite there being evidence on such differences, current guidelines do not consider sex- and gender-sensitive approaches. In order to examine how to adequately address the diversity of the experience and processing of pain in patients of differing sex and gender, the GESCO study aims at developing and pilot testing a sex- and gender-sensitive intervention for patients with CNCP receiving long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) in primary care. Methods The development process is designed in accordance with the first two phases of the UK Medical Research Council. Phase I will iteratively explore, develop, and pilot the intervention’s modules using literature searches, interviews, and workshops involving stakeholders and experts. Phase II will pilot-test the novel intervention in a sample of 40 patients with CNCP under LTOT from ten general practices using an effectiveness-implementation hybrid design including a mixed-methods process evaluation focusing on implementation strategy criteria and a single-arm, pre-post comparison to determine preliminary effects in preparation for a larger effectiveness trial. The intervention will combine in-person educational sessions for general practitioners and tools to be used in patient care. Discussion The intervention aims to improve CNCP management in primary care by empowering practitioners to reflect on their attitudes towards pain and stereotypes. Besides sex and gender aspects, awareness of other factors that might affect the care process, such as age, social conditions, or culture, is also promoted. The intention is to develop a comprehensive care concept for CNCP that considers aspects relevant for sex- and gender-sensitive care which are transferrable to other health care fields as well. Trial registration German Clinical Trial Register DRKS00029980.

Abstract Background General practitioners (GPs) play a crucial role in identifying cognitive impairment and dementia and providing post-diagnostic care. This study investigates (1) how promising GP consider lifestyle changes to maintain cognitive performance in general, (2) GP beliefs about the power of modifiable health and lifestyle factors to maintain cognitive performance, and (3) whether those beliefs vary by GP age. Methods As part of the AgeWell.de trial, GPs (n = 72) completed a process evaluation questionnaire assessing their perspectives on lifestyle changes to preserve cognitive performance in elderly patients. In greater detail, their perceived efficacy of established risk and protective factors was investigated using a 5-point Likert scale. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed for research question (1) and (2). Spearman´s rank correlations and ordinal logistic regressions were used to answer research question (3). All results were interpreted exploratively. Results GPs rated the overall chance of lifestyle changes maintaining cognitive performance quite neutral with a median score of 3.0 (IQR = 2.0). They rated the efficacy of all the modifiable health and lifestyle factors high, with increase in physical and social activity ((Mdn = 5.0, IQR = 1.0) receiving the highest ratings with the narrowest range. Spearman's rank correlation indicated a significant positive relationship between age and the belief in “Optimization of nutrition” for preventing cognitive decline and dementia (ρ = .255, p = .041). However, ordinal logistic regressions showed no significant relationships between age and GP ratings of lifestyle change efficacy. Conclusion These findings highlight the positive perception of GPs on the efficacy of modifiable health and lifestyle factors for preventing cognitive decline and dementia. Trial registration The AgeWell.de trial is registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS; trial identifier: DRKS00013555, Registration Date 07 December 2017).

Abstract Background Aim of this study was to detect predictors of better adherence to the AgeWell.de-intervention, a two-year randomized multi-domain lifestyle intervention against cognitive decline. Methods Data of 317 intervention group-participants comprising a risk group for dementia (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Ageing and Dementia (CAIDE) score of ≥ 9; mean age 68.9 years, 49.5% women) from the AgeWell.de intervention study were analysed. Regression models with four blocks of predictors (sociodemographic, cognitive and psychosocial, lifestyle factors and chronic conditions) were run on adherence to the components of nutrition, enhancement of social and physical activity and cognitive training. Adherence to each component was operationalised by assessing the degree of goal achievement per component at up to seven time points during the intervention period, measured using a 5-point Likert scale (mean score of goal achievement). Results Increasing age was negatively associated with adherence, while higher education positively predicted adherence. Participants with better mental state (Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA)-score > 25) at baseline and higher self-efficacy adhered better. Diabetes and cardiovascular conditions were not associated with adherence, whereas smoking negatively affected adherence. Highest education and quitting smoking in the past were the only predictors associated with all four intervention components. Conclusion Results identified predictors for better and worse adherence. Particularly self-efficacy seems to be of considerable influence on adherence. This should be considered when designing future intervention trials. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register (ref. number: DRKS00013555).

Summary: Background: Blood-based biomarkers offer a promising, less invasive, and more cost-effective alternative for Alzheimer's disease screening compared to cerebrospinal fluid or imaging biomarkers. However, they have been extensively studied only in memory clinic-based cohorts. We aimed to validate them in a more heterogeneous, older patient population from primary care. Methods: We measured plasma Aβ42/Aβ40, P-tau181, NfL, and GFAP in 1007 individuals without dementia, aged 79–94 years, from the longitudinal, primary care-based German AgeCoDe study. We assessed the association with cognitive decline, disease progression, and the capacity to predict future dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT). We also evaluated biomarker dynamics in 305 individuals with a follow-up sample (∼8 years later). Findings: Higher levels of P-tau181 (HR = 1.32 [95% CI: 1.17–1.51]), NfL (HR = 1.19 [95% CI: 1.03–1.36]), and GFAP (HR = 1.36 [95% CI: 1.22–1.52]), and a lower Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio (HR = 0.80 [95% CI: 0.68–0.95]) were associated with an increased risk of progressing to clinically-diagnosed DAT. Additionally, higher levels of P-tau181 (β = −0.49 [95% CI: −0.71 to 0.26]), NfL (β = −0.29 [95% CI: −0.52 to 0.06]), and GFAP (β = −0.60 [95% CI: −0.83 to 0.38]) were linked to faster cognitive decline. A two-step DAT prediction strategy combining initial MMSE with biomarkers improved the identification of individuals in the prodromal stage for potential treatment eligibility. Biomarker levels changed over time, with increases in P-tau181 (β = 0.19 [95% CI: 0.14–0.25]), NfL (β = 2.88 [95% CI: 2.18–3.59]), and GFAP (β = 8.23 [95% CI: 6.71–9.75]). NfL (β = 2.47 [95% CI: 1.04–3.89]) and GFAP (β = 4.45 [95% CI: 1.38–7.51]) exhibited a faster increase in individuals progressing to DAT. Interpretation: Evaluating plasma biomarkers, alongside brief cognitive assessments, might enhance the precision of risk assessment for DAT progression in primary care. Funding: Alzheimer Forschung Initiative, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung.

PurposeThe present study aimed to investigate age-group-specific incidence rates and risk factors for depressive symptoms in the highest age groups.MethodsData were derived from a prospective multicenter cohort study conducted in primary care – the AgeCoDe/AgeQualiDe study. In total, 2,436 patients 75 years and older were followed from baseline to ninth follow-up. To assess depressive symptoms, the short version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15, cutoff score 6) was used. Age-specific competing risk regressions were performed to analyze risk factors for incident depressive symptoms in different age groups (75 to 79, 80 to 84, 85+ years), taking into account the accumulated mortality.ResultsThe age-specific incidence rate of depression was 33 (95% CI 29-38), 46 (95% CI 40-52) and 63 (95% CI 45-87) per 1,000 person years for the initial age groups 75 to 79, 80 to 84 and 85+ years, respectively. In competing risk regression models, female sex, mobility as well as vision impairment, and subjective cognitive decline (SCD) were found to be risk factors for incident depression for age group 75 to 79, female sex, single/separated marital status, mobility as well as hearing impairment, and SCD for age group 80 to 84, and mobility impairment for age group 85+.ConclusionDepressive symptoms in latest life are common and the incidence increases with increasing age. Modifiable and differing risk factors across the highest age groups open up the possibility of specifically tailored prevention concepts.

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to investigate (1) whether fracture pattern and age are associated with local bone quality (LBQ), and (2) whether a scoring system based on these variables is able to predict LBQ in proximal humerus fractures (PHF). Materials and methods A retrospective study was performed of all acute PHF at a Level 2 trauma center with plain radiographs and CT between June 2009 and March 2022. Local bone quality was measured by using the deltoid tuberosity index (DTI). In addition to age and gender, fracture morphology was categorized using the following classification systems: Neer, Resch, AO Foundation/Orthopaedic Trauma Association (AO/OTA), and Hertel/LEGO. Additionally, coronal head alignment was calculated by measuring the head-shaft angle. Results Only the Resch classification system revealed a significant relationship between fracture type and bone quality, as there was a significant association between coronal head alignment and DTI (p = 0.001). Valgus head alignment was observed significantly more frequent in patients with low bone quality (p = 0.002). Multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed a significant relative risk ratio for age (RRR = 0.97, [95% CI, 0.94-1], p = 0.039) and a non-significant trend for DTI (RRR = 1.26, [95% CI, 0.96–1.64], p = 0.092) for occurrence of anatomic relative to valgus head alignment. Using a DTI cut-off value of 1.3 instead of 1.4, age and also varus head alignment were identified as significant predictors of LBQ (OR = 1.12, [95% CI, 1.1–1.15], p

Abstract Background Pharyngitis due to Group A beta-hemolytic streptococci (GAS) is seen as the main indication for antibiotics for sore throat. In primary care settings prescription rates are much higher than the prevalence of GAS. Recommendations in international guidelines differ considerably. A German guideline suggested to consider antibiotics for patients with Centor or McIsaac scores ≥ 3, first choice being penicillin V for 7 days, and recommended analgesics for all. We investigated, if the implementation of this guideline lowers the antibiotic prescription rate, and if a rapid antigen detection strep-test (RADT) in patients with scores ≥ 3 lowers the rate further. Methods HALS was an open pragmatic parallel group three-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial. Primary care practices in Northern Germany were randomized into three groups: Guideline (GL-group), modified guideline with a RADT for scores ≥ 3 (GL-RADT-group) or usual care (UC-group). All practices were visited and instructed by the study team (outreach visits) and supplied with material according to their group. The practices were asked to recruit 11 consecutive patients ≥ 2 years with an acute sore throat and being at least moderately impaired. A study throat swab for GAS was taken in every patient. The antibiotic prescription rate at the first consultation was the primary outcome. Results From October 2010 to March 2012, 68 general practitioners in 61 practices recruited 520 patients, 516 could be analyzed for the primary endpoint. Antibiotic prescription rates did not differ between groups (p = 0.162) and were about three times higher than the GAS rate: GL-group 97/187 patients (52%; GAS = 16%), GL-RADT-group 74/172 (43%; GAS = 16%) and UC-group 68/157 (43%; GAS = 14%). In the GL-RADT-group 55% of patients had scores ≥ 3 compared to 35% in GL-group (p

Abstract Background General practitioners (GPs) play a key role in the provision of primary palliative care (PC). The identification of patients who might benefit from PC and the timely initiation of patient-centred PC measures at the end of life are essential, yet challenging. Although different tools exist to support these key tasks, a structured approach is often missing. Objective The study aimed at implementing the German version of the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT-DE™) in general practices, following a structured and regional approach, in order to evaluate the effects of this tool on the identification of patients with potential PC needs and the initiation of patient-centred PC measures. Methods The intervention of this mixed-methods study comprised a standardised training of 52 GPs from 34 general practices in two counties in Lower Saxony, Germany, on the use of the SPICT-DE™. The SPICT-DE™ is a clinical tool which supports the identification of patients with potential PC needs. Subsequently, over a period of 12 months, GPs applied the SPICT-DE™ in daily practice with adult patients with chronic, progressive diseases, and completed a follow-up survey 6 months after the initial patient assessment. The outcome parameters were alterations in the patient’s clinical situation, and the type and number of initiated patient-centred PC measures during the follow-up interval. Additionally, 12 months after the standardised training, GPs provided feedback on their application of the SPICT-DE™. Results A total of 43 GPs (n = 15 female, median age 53 years) out of an initial sample of 52 trained GPs assessed 580 patients (n = 345 female, median age 84 years) with mainly cardiovascular (47%) and cancer (33%) diseases. Follow-up of 412 patients revealed that 231 (56%) experienced at least one critical incident in their disease progression (e.g. acute crisis), 151 (37%) had at least one hospital admission, and 141 (34%) died. A review of current treatment/medication (76%) and a clarification of treatment goals (53%) were the most frequently initiated patient-centred PC measures. The majority of GPs deemed the SPICT-DE™ practical (85%) and stated an intention to continue applying the tool in daily practice (66%). Conclusions The SPICT-DE™ is a practical tool that supports the identification of patients at risk of deterioration or dying and promotes the initiation of patient-centred PC measures. Trial registration The study was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (N° DRKS00015108; 22/01/2019).

Abstract Background Demographic trends show an increasing number of elderly people and thus a growing need for palliative care (PC). Such care is increasingly being provided by long-term care (LTC) facilities. The present study aimed at exploring PC indicators of residents at LTC facilities belonging to a non-profit provider in Lower Saxony, Germany, in order to identify potential improvements. Methods A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted, drawing on routine nursing chart data. Structural data from 16 participating LTC facilities and the care data of all residents who died in 2019 (N = 471) were collected anonymously between March and May 2020. Based on key literature on quality indicators of PC in LTC facilities in Germany, a structured survey was developed by a multidisciplinary research team. The descriptive, comparative and inferential data analysis was conducted using the SPSS software package. Results In total, the complete records of 363 (77%) residents who died in the participating LTC facilities in 2019 were retrieved. The records reflected that 45% of the residents had been hospitalized at least once during the last 6 months of their lives, and 19% had died in hospital. Advance care planning (ACP) consultation was offered to 168 (46%) residents, and 64 (38%) declined this offer. A written advance directive was available for 47% of the residents. A specialized PC team and hospice service volunteers were involved in caring for 6% and 14% of the residents, respectively. Cancer patients received support from external services significantly more frequently (p

BackgroundWith the outbreak of COVID-19, government measures including social distancing and restrictions of social contacts were imposed to slow the spread of the virus. Since older adults are at increased risk of severe disease, they were particularly affected by these restrictions. These may negatively affect mental health by loneliness and social isolation, which constitute risk factors for depressiveness. We aimed to analyse the impact of perceived restriction due to government measures on depressive symptoms and investigated stress as mediator in an at-risk-population in Germany.MethodsData were collected in April 2020 from the population of the AgeWell.de-study, including individuals with a Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) score ≥9, using the depression subscale of the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI-18) and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4). Feeling restricted due to COVID-19 government measures was surveyed with a standardized questionnaire. Stepwise multivariate regressions using zero-inflated negative binomial models were applied to analyse depressive symptoms, followed by a general structural equation model to assess stress as mediator. Analysis were controlled for sociodemographic factors as well as social support.ResultsWe analysed data from 810 older adults (mean age = 69.9, SD = 5). Feeling restricted due to COVID-19 government measures was linked to increased depressiveness (b = 0.19; p

Abstract Background Distress and burnout are common in physicians. Both may already arise during medical training and persist throughout residency. An analysis of needs is necessary in order to develop target group specific curricular concepts at medical faculties. Aim of this study was to assess the perceived stress of medical students, to explore study-related behavior and experience patterns, and to investigate associated factors. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of medical students at the Hannover Medical School. The web-based questionnaire consisted of 74 items and included two standardized instruments: the “Work-related Behavior and Experience Patterns” (Arbeitsbezogene Verhaltens- und Erlebensmuster, AVEM) and the “Perceived Medical School Stress” scale (PMSS). Students were asked to state their self-perceived actual stress level on a scale from 0% (no stress at all) to 100% (maximum stress). We performed a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to identify factors that can discriminate between the four different AVEM patterns. Results Five hundred ninety-one medical students (female 75.8%, response rate: 34.0%) participated in the survey. The mean sum score of the PMSS was 37.2 (SD 8.3; median score 37, min.-max. = 18–65). Overall, 68.5% of the students showed a risk pattern (risk pattern A “overexertion”: 38.9%; risk pattern B “burnout”: 29.6%). Pattern G “healthy” was shown in 8.3% and pattern S “protection” in 23.1% of the students. Multilevel analysis revealed that the self-perceived stress level and the PMSS sum score were the most important predictors for the AVEM pattern assignment. Furthermore, academic year, gender, and financial dependency were relevant influencing factors: students in higher academic years with no financial support had a higher probability to be in risk pattern B whereas male students in the first academic year tended to be in pattern G. Conclusions The PMSS sum score could objectify medical students’ high self-perceived stress level. The majority of participating students showed a risky study-related behavior and experience pattern. Medical faculties should be aware of the still existing and relevant problem of stress and burnout among medical students. Our results lay the groundwork for an evaluation and further development of medical curricula at the own faculty.

Abstract Objectives Growing evidence suggests a protective effect of high mental demands at work on cognitive function in later life. However, evidence on corresponding associations in older adults at increased risk for dementia is currently lacking. This study investigates the association between mental demands at work and cognitive functioning in the population of the AgeWell.de-trial. Methods Cross-sectional investigation of the association between global cognitive functioning (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and mental demands at work in older individuals at increased risk for dementia (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE)score ≥ 9; n = 941, age: 60–77 years). Occupational information was matched to Occupational Information Network (O*NET)-descriptors. Associations between cognitive function and O*NET-indices executive, verbal and novelty were investigated using generalized linear models. Results Higher values of index verbal (b = .69, p = .002) were associated with better cognitive function when adjusting for covariates. No association was observed for indices executive (b = .37, p = .062) and novelty (b = .45, p = .119). Higher education, younger age, and employment were linked to better cognitive function, while preexisting medical conditions did not change the associations. Higher levels of depressive symptomatology were associated with worse cognitive function. Conclusions Higher levels of verbal demands at work were associated with better cognitive function for older adults with increased dementia risk. This suggests an advantage for older persons in jobs with high mental demands even after retirement and despite prevalent risk factors. Longitudinal studies are warranted to confirm these results and evaluate the potential of workplaces to prevent cognitive decline through increased mental demands.

IntroductionSeveral lifestyle factors promote protection against Alzheimer's disease (AD) throughout a person's lifespan. Although such protective effects have been described for occupational cognitive requirements (OCR) in midlife, it is currently unknown whether they are conveyed by brain maintenance (BM), brain reserve (BR), or cognitive reserve (CR) or a combination of them.MethodsWe systematically derived hypotheses for these resilience concepts and tested them in the population-based AgeCoDe cohort and memory clinic-based AD high-risk DELCODE study. The OCR score (OCRS) was measured using job activities based on the O*NET occupational classification system. Four sets of analyses were conducted: (1) the interaction of OCR and APOE-ε4 with regard to cognitive decline (N = 2,369, AgeCoDe), (2) association with differentially shaped retrospective trajectories before the onset of dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT; N = 474, AgeCoDe), (3) cross-sectional interaction of the OCR and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers and brain structural measures regarding memory function (N = 873, DELCODE), and (4) cross-sectional and longitudinal association of OCR with CSF AD biomarkers and brain structural measures (N = 873, DELCODE).ResultsRegarding (1), higher OCRS was associated with a reduced association of APOE-ε4 with cognitive decline (mean follow-up = 6.03 years), consistent with CR and BR. Regarding (2), high OCRS was associated with a later onset but subsequently stronger cognitive decline in individuals converting to DAT, consistent with CR. Regarding (3), higher OCRS was associated with a weaker association of the CSF Aβ42/40 ratio and hippocampal volume with memory function, consistent with CR. Regarding (4), OCR was not associated with the levels or changes in CSF AD biomarkers (mean follow-up = 2.61 years). We found a cross-sectional, age-independent association of OCRS with some MRI markers, but no association with 1-year-change. OCR was not associated with the intracranial volume. These results are not completely consistent with those of BR or BM.DiscussionOur results support the link between OCR and CR. Promoting and seeking complex and stimulating work conditions in midlife could therefore contribute to increased resistance to pathologies in old age and might complement prevention measures aimed at reducing pathology.

Abstract Background Patients in Germany are free to seek care from any office-based physician and can always ask for multiple opinions on a diagnosis or treatment. The high density of physicians and the freedom to choose among them without referrals have led to a need for better coordination between the multiple health professionals treating any given patient. The objectives of this study are to (1) identify informal networks of physicians who treat the same patient population, (2) provide these physicians with feedback on their network and patients, using routine data and (3) give the physicians the opportunity to meet one another in facilitated network meetings. Methods The Accountable Care Deutschland (ACD) study is a prospective, non-blinded, cluster-randomised trial comprising a process and economic evaluation of informal networks among 12,525 GPs and office-based specialists and their 1.9 million patients. The units of allocation are the informal networks, which will be randomised either to the intervention (feedback and facilitated meetings) or control group (usual care). The informal networks will be generated by identifying connections between office-based physicians using complete datasets from the Regional Associations of Statutory Health Insurance (SHI) Physicians in Hamburg, Schleswig Holstein, North Rhine and Westphalia Lip, as well as data from three large statutory health insurers in Germany. The physicians will (a) receive feedback on selected indicators of their own treatment activity and that of the colleagues in their network and (b) will be invited to voluntary, facilitated network meetings by their Regional Association of SHI physicians. The primary outcome will be ambulatory-care-sensitive hospitalisations at baseline, at the end of the 2-year intervention period, and at six months and at 12 months after the end of the intervention period. Data will be analysed using the intention-to-treat principle. A pilot study preceded the ACD study. Discussion Cochrane reviews show that feedback can improve everyday medical practice by shedding light on previously unknown relationships. Providing physicians with information on how they are connected with their colleagues and what the outcomes are of care delivered within their informal networks can help them make these improvements, as well as strengthen their awareness of possible discontinuities in the care they provide. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00020884 . Registered on 25 March 2020—retrospectively registered.

AimThe aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of and the gender differences in the use of professional home care in Germany.MethodsWe used harmonized data from three large cohort studies from Germany (“Healthy Aging: Gender-specific trajectories into the latest life”; AgeDifferent.de Platform). Data were available for 5,393 older individuals (75 years and older). Mean age was 80.2 years (SD: 4.1 years), 66.6% were female. Professional homecare outcome variables were use of outpatient nursing care, paid household assistance, and meals on wheels' services. Logistic regression models were used, adjusting for important sociodemographic variables.ResultsAltogether 5.2% of older individuals used outpatient nursing care (6.2% women and 3.2% men; p < 0.001), 24.2% used paid household assistance (26.1% women and 20.5% men; p < 0.001) and 4.4% used meals on wheels' services (4.5% women and 4.0% men; p = 0.49). Regression analysis revealed that women had higher odds of using paid household assistance than men (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: [1.24–1.76]; p < 0.001), whereas they had lower odds of using meals on wheels' services (OR = 0.64, 95% CI: [0.42–0.97]; p < 0.05). No statistically significant differences in using outpatient nursing care between women and men were found (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: [0.87–1.81]; p = 0.225). Further, the use of home care was mainly associated with health-related variables (e.g., stroke, Parkinson's disease) and walking impairments.ConclusionsOur study showed that gender differences exist in using paid household assistance and in culinary dependency. For example, meals on wheels' services are of great importance (e.g., for individuals living alone or for individuals with low social support). Gender differences were not identified regarding outpatient nursing care. Use of professional home care services may contribute to maintaining autonomy and independence in old age.

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate the longitudinal impact of depressive symptoms on utilization of healthcare in terms of GP visits as well as specialist visits and hospital admission in late life among community-dwelling individuals.MethodsLongitudinal data (baseline and follow-up) were derived from the German multicentre, prospective cohort study “Late-life depression in primary care: needs, health care utilization and costs” study (AgeMooDe). At baseline, n = 1,230 patients aged 75 years and older were recruited from primary care practices. Main outcomes of interest were use of health care services: the number of GP visits, the number of medical specialist visits, and hospital admission. We used the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) to measure depression. Outcomes were analyzed with multilevel random intercept negative binominal regression and logistic random-effects models.ResultsAt baseline (n = 1,191), mean age was 80.7 (SD 4.6) years, 62.9% were female, and 196 individuals (16.5%) had depression (GDS-15 ≥6). Our longitudinal analyses indicated that older individuals with more depressive symptoms visited their GP more often (IRR=1.03; CI [1.01-1.04], p < 0.001), were visiting medical specialists more frequently (IRR=1.03; CI [1.01-1.04], p < 0.01), and had higher odds of being hospitalized (OR=1.08; CI [1.02-1.13], p < 0.01).ConclusionsBased on this large longitudinal study we showed that, after adjustment for important covariates, older individuals with more depressive symptoms had higher health care utilization over time. They visited their GP and specialists more frequently and they had higher odds of being hospitalized. This may suggest that higher utilization of specialist care and increased likelihood of being hospitalized may be also attributable to unspecific symptoms or symptoms that are elevated through depressive symptoms.

PurposeSocial isolation is considered a risk factor for dementia. However, less is known about social isolation and dementia with respect to competing risk of death, particularly in the oldest-old, who are at highest risk for social isolation, dementia and mortality. Therefore, we aimed to examine these associations in a sample of oldest-old individuals.MethodsAnalyses were based on follow-up (FU) 5–9 of the longitudinal German study AgeCoDe/AgeQualiDe. Social isolation was assessed using the short form of the Lubben Social Network Scale (LSNS-6), with a score ≤ 12 indicating social isolation. Structured interviews were used to identify dementia cases. Competing risk analysis based on the Fine-Gray model was conducted to test the association between social isolation and incident dementia.ResultsExcluding participants with prevalent dementia, n = 1,161 individuals were included. Their mean age was 86.6 (SD = 3.1) years and 67.0% were female. The prevalence of social isolation was 34.7% at FU 5, 9.7% developed dementia and 36.0% died during a mean FU time of 4.3 (SD = 0.4) years. Adjusting for covariates and cumulative mortality risk, social isolation was not significantly associated with incident dementia; neither in the total sample (sHR: 1.07, 95%CI 0.65-1.76, p = 0.80), nor if stratified by sex (men: sHR: 0.71, 95%CI 0.28-1.83, p = 0.48; women: sHR: 1.39, 95%CI 0.77-2.51, p = 0.27).ConclusionIn contrast to the findings of previous studies, we did not find an association between social isolation and incident dementia in the oldest-old. However, our analysis took into account the competing risk of death and the FU period was rather short. Future studies, especially with longer FU periods and more comprehensive assessment of qualitative social network characteristics (e.g., loneliness and satisfaction with social relationships) may be useful for clarification.

Background The elderly population deals with multimorbidity (three chronic conditions) and increasinged drug use with age. A comprehensive characterisation of the medication – including prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs – of elderly patients in primary care is still insufficient. Objectives This study aims to characterise the medication (prescription and OTC) of multimorbid elderly patients in primary care and living at home by identifying drug patterns to evaluate the relationship between drugs and drug groups and reveal associations with recently published multimorbidity clusters of the same cohort. Methods MultiCare was a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of 3189 multimorbid patients aged 65 to 85 years in primary care in Germany. Patients and general practitioners were interviewed between 2008 and 2009. Drug patterns were identified using exploratory factor analysis. The relations between the drug patterns with the three multimorbidity clusters were analysed with Spearman-Rank-Correlation. Results Patients (59.3% female) used in mean 7.7 drugs; in total 24,535 drugs (23.7% OTC) were detected. Five drug patterns for men (drugs for obstructive pulmonary diseases (D-OPD), drugs for coronary heart diseases and hypertension (D-CHD), drugs for osteoporosis (D-Osteo), drugs for heart failure and drugs for pain) and four drug patterns for women (D-Osteo, D-CHD, D-OPD and drugs for diuretics and gout) were detected. Significant associations between multimorbidity clusters and drug patterns were detectable (D-CHD and CMD: male: ρ = 0.376, CI 0.322–0.430; female: ρ = 0.301, CI 0.624–0.340). Conclusion The drug patterns demonstrate non-random relations in drug use in multimorbid elderly patients and systematic associations between drug patterns and multimorbidity clusters were found in primary care.

Abstract Background The provision and quality of end-of-life care (EoLC) in Germany is inconsistent. Therefore, an evaluation of current EoLC based on quality indicators is needed. This study aims to evaluate EoLC in Germany on the basis of quality indicators pertaining to curative overtreatment, palliative undertreatment and delayed palliative care (PC). Results were compared with previous findings. Methods Data from a statutory health insurance provider (AOK Lower Saxony) pertaining to deceased members in the years 2016 and 2017 were used to evaluate EoLC. The main indicators were: chemotherapy for cancer patients in the last month of life, first-time percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) for patients with dementia in the last 3 months of life, number of hospitalisations and days spent in inpatient treatment in the last 6 months of life, and provision of generalist and specialist outpatient PC in the last year of life. Data were analysed descriptively. Results Data for 64,275 deceased members (54.3% female; 35.1% cancer patients) were analysed. With respect to curative overtreatment, 10.4% of the deceased with cancer underwent chemotherapy in the last month and 0.9% with dementia had a new PEG insertion in the last 3 months of life. The mean number of hospitalisations and inpatient treatment days per deceased member was 1.6 and 16.5, respectively, in the last 6 months of life. Concerning palliative undertreatment, generalist outpatient PC was provided for 28.0% and specialist outpatient PC was provided for 9.0% of the deceased. Regarding indicators for delayed PC, the median onset of generalist and specialist outpatient PC was 47.0 and 24.0 days before death, respectively. Conclusion Compared to data from 2010 to 2014, the data analysed in the present study suggest an ongoing curative overtreatment in terms of chemotherapy and hospitalisation, a reduction in new PEG insertions and an increase in specialist PC. The number of patients receiving generalist PC remained low, with delayed onset. Greater awareness of generalist PC and the early integration of PC are recommended. Trial registration The study was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00015108 ; 22 January 2019).

ObjectiveSince there is a lack of longitudinal studies in this area, our aim was to identify the determinants of persistent frequent attendance in primary care among the oldest old in Germany.MethodsLongitudinal data (follow-up wave 7–9) were taken from the multicenter prospective cohort “Study on needs, health service use, costs, and health-related quality of life in a large sample of oldest-old primary care patients (85+)” (AgeQualiDe), covering primary care patients ≥ 85 years (FU7 n = 741, mean age 88.9 years (SD 2.9; 85–100)). Persistent frequent attenders of general practitioner (GP) services (the patients in the top decile of the number of GP consultations in two or more consecutive waves) were our main outcome of interest. Logistic random-effects models were used.ResultsOur analysis included 1,891 observations (766 individuals). Across three waves, we identified 56 persistent frequent attenders. Results of random-effects logistic regressions showed that the odds of being persistent frequent attender were higher for widowed individuals (OR = 4.57; 95% CI [1.07–19.45]). Moreover, a one-point increase in the frailty score and having one more chronic condition increased the odds of being a persistent frequent attender by 68% (OR =1.68; 95% CI [1.05–2.69]) and 23% (OR=1.23, 95% CI [1.05–1.44]), respectively.ConclusionOur study stressed the longitudinal association between frailty and widowhood as well as chronic diseases and persistent frequent attendance among the oldest old in Germany.

Abstract Background In Germany, advance care planning (ACP) was first introduced by law in 2015. However, ACP is still uncommon in Germany and only few people have advance directive forms. This study aims to evaluate an ACP program in care dependent community-dwelling persons, compared to optimised usual care. Methods A cluster-randomised controlled trial of 12 months duration will be conducted in 3 German study sites comparing the pretested ACP-counselling offered by trained nurses with a control group receiving optimised usual care. Using external concealed randomisation, 16 home care services each will be included in the intervention and the control group (30 participants per cluster; n = 960). Eligibility criteria for patients are: ≥60 years, somehow care dependent, adequate German language skills, assumed life-expectancy of ≥4 weeks, and cognitive ability for participation. ACP will be delivered by trained nurse facilitators of the respective home care services and communication will include proxy decision-makers. The primary endpoint will be patient activation, assessed by the Patient Activation Measure (PAM-13). Secondary endpoints include ACP-engagement, proportion of prepared advance directives, number and duration of hospitalisations, quality of life as well as depression and anxiety. Further, comprehensive economic and process evaluations will be conducted. Discussion STADPLAN is the first study in Germany that assesses an adapted ACP intervention with trained nurses in home care services and the first international study focusing on cost effectiveness of ACP in community-dwelling older persons. The results will help to improve the understanding and communicating of patients’ preferences regarding medical treatment and care and thereby contribute to patients’ autonomy. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00016886 (Date of registration: 04.06.2019).

Abstract Background Frailty in elderly patients is associated with an increased risk of poor health outcomes, including falls, delirium, malnutrition, hospitalisation, and mortality. Because polypharmacy is recognised as a possible major contributor to the pathogenesis of geriatric frailty, reducing inappropriate medication exposure is supposed to be a promising approach to improve health-related quality of life and prevent adverse outcomes. A major challenge for the process of deprescribing of inappropriate polypharmacy is to improve the communication between general practitioner (GPs), patient and family carer. This study investigates the effects of a complex intervention in frail elderly patients with polypharmacy living at home. Methods This is a cluster randomised controlled trial including 136 GPs and 676 patients. Patients with a positive clinical screening for frailty are eligible if they are aged 70 years or older, receiving family or professional nursing care at home, and taking in five or more drugs per day. Exclusion criteria are higher grade of dementia and life expectancy of 6 months or less. The GPs of the intervention group receive an educational training promoting a deprescribing guideline and providing information on how to conduct a family conference focussing on prioritisation of treatment goals concerning drug therapy. During the 1-year intervention, GPs are expected to perform a total of three family conferences, each including a structured medication review with patients and their family carers. GPs of the control group will receive no training and will deliver care as usual. Geriatric assessment of all patients will be performed by study nurses during home visits at baseline and after 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is the hospitalisation rate during the observation period of 12 months. Secondary outcomes are number and appropriateness of medications, mobility, weakness, cognition, depressive disorder, health-related quality of life, activities of daily living, weight, and costs of health care use. Discussion This study will provide evidence for a pragmatic co-operative and patient-centred educational intervention using family conferences to improve patient safety in frail elderly patients with polypharmacy. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00015055 (WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform [ICTRP]). Registered on 6 February 2019.

Background. Vitamins A, D and E and beta-carotene may have a protective function for cognitive health, due to their antioxidant capacities. Methods. We analyzed data from 1334 non-demented participants (mean age 84 years) from the AgeCoDe study, a prospective multicenter-cohort of elderly general-practitioner patients in Germany, of whom n = 250 developed all-cause dementia and n = 209 developed Alzheimer’s dementia (AD) during 7 years of follow-up. We examined whether concentrations of vitamins A (retinol), D (25-hydroxycholecalciferol) and E (alpha-tocopherol) and beta-carotene, would be associated with incident (AD) dementia. Results. In our sample, 33.7% had optimum vitamin D concentrations (≥50 nmol/L). Higher concentrations of vitamin D were associated with lower incidence of all-cause dementia and AD (HR 0.99 (95%CI 0.98; 0.99); HR0.99 (95%CI 0.98; 0.99), respectively). In particular, subjects with vitamin D deficiency (25.3%,

Objectives Our study aimed to assess the frequency of potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use (according to three PIM lists) and to examine the association between PIM use and cognitive function among participants in the MultiCare cohort.Design MultiCare is conducted as a longitudinal, multicentre, observational cohort study.Setting The MultiCare study is located in eight different study centres in Germany.Participants 3189 patients (59.3% female).Primary and secondary outcome measures The study had a cross-sectional design using baseline data from the German MultiCare study. Prescribed and over-the-counter drugs were classified using FORTA (Fit fOR The Aged), PRISCUS (Latin for ‘time-honoured’) and EU(7)-PIM lists. A mixed-effect multivariate linear regression was performed to calculate the association between PIM use patients’ cognitive function (measured with (LDST)).Results Patients (3189) used 2152 FORTA PIM (mean 0.9±1.03 per patient), 936 PRISCUS PIM (0.3±0.58) and 4311 EU(7)-PIM (1.4±1.29). The most common FORTA PIM was phenprocoumon (13.8%); the most prevalent PRISCUS PIM was amitriptyline (2.8%); the most common EU(7)-PIM was omeprazole (14.0%). The lists rate PIM differently, with an overall overlap of 6.6%. Increasing use of PIM is significantly associated with reduced cognitive function that was detected with a correlation coefficient of −0.60 for FORTA PIM (p=0.002), −0.72 for PRISCUS PIM (p=0.025) and −0.44 for EU(7)-PIM (p=0.005).Conclusion We identified PIM using FORTA, PRISCUS and EU(7)-PIM lists differently and found that PIM use is associated with cognitive impairment according to LDST, whereby the FORTA list best explained cognitive decline for the German population. These findings are consistent with a negative impact of PIM use on multimorbid elderly patient outcomes.Trial registration number ISRCTN89818205.

Abstract Background In the absence of treatment options, the WHO emphasizes the identification of effective prevention strategies as a key element to counteract the dementia epidemic. Regarding the complex nature of dementia, trials simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors should be particularly effective for prevention. So far, however, only few such multi-component trials have been launched, but yielding promising results. In Germany, comparable initiatives are lacking, and translation of these complex interventions into routine care was not yet done. Therefore, AgeWell.de will be conducted as the first multi-component prevention trial in Germany which is closely linked to the primary care setting. Methods AgeWell.de will be designed as a multi-centric, cluster-randomized controlled multi-component prevention trial. Participants will be older community-dwelling general practitioner (GP) patients (60–77 years; n = 1,152) with increased dementia risk according to CAIDE (Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia) Dementia Risk Score. Recruitment will take place at 5 study sites across Germany. GP practices will be randomized to either intervention A (advanced) or B (basic). GPs will be blinded to their respective group assignment, as will be the statistician conducting the randomization. The multi-component intervention (A) includes nutritional counseling, physical activity, cognitive training, optimization of medication, management of vascular risk factors, social activity, and, if necessary, further specific interventions targeting grief and depression. Intervention B includes general health advice on the intervention components and GP treatment as usual. We hypothesize that over the 2-year follow-up period the intervention group A will benefit significantly from the intervention program in terms of preserved cognitive function/delayed cognitive decline (primary outcome), and other relevant (secondary) outcomes (e.g. quality of life, social activities, depressive symptomatology, cost-effectiveness). Discussion AgeWell.de will be the first multi-component trial targeting risk of cognitive decline in older adults in Germany. Compared to previous trials, AgeWell.de covers an even broader set of interventions suggested to be beneficial for the intended outcomes. The findings will add substantial knowledge on modifiable lifestyle factors to prevent or delay cognitive decline. Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register (reference number: DRKS00013555).

Abstract Background At the end of life, about 85–90% of patients can be treated within primary palliative care (PC) provided by general practitioners (GPs). In Germany, there is no structured approach for the provision of PC by GPs including a systematic as well as timely identification of patients who might benefit from PC, yet. The project “Optimal care at the end of life” (OPAL) focusses on an improvement of primary PC for patients with both oncological and non-oncological chronic progressive diseases in their last phase of life provided by GPs and health care services. Methods OPAL will take place in Hameln-Pyrmont, a rural region in Lower Saxony, Germany. Target groups are (a) GPs, (b) relatives of deceased patients and (c) health care providers. The study follows a three-phase approach in a mixed-methods and pre-post design. In phase I (baseline, t0) we explore the usual practice of providing PC for patients with chronic progressive diseases by GPs and the collaboration with other health care providers. In phase II (intervention) the Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool (SPICT) for the timely identification of patients who might benefit from PC will be implemented and tested in general practices. Furthermore, a public campaign will be started to inform stakeholders, to connect health care providers and to train change agents. In phase III (follow-up, t1) we investigate the potential effect of the intervention to evaluate differences in the provision of PC by GPs and to convey factors for the implementation of SPICT in general practices. Discussion The project OPAL is the first study to implement the SPICT-DE regionwide in general practices in Germany. The project OPAL may contribute to an overall optimisation of primary PC for patients in Germany by reducing GPs’ uncertainty in initiating PC, by consolidating their skills and competencies in identifying patients who might benefit from PC, and by improving the cooperation between GPs and different health care stakeholders. Trial registration The study was retrospectively registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien; trial registration number: DRKS00015108; date of registration: 22th of January 2019).

Abstract Background Medication safety is an important health issue for nursing home residents (NHR). They usually experience polypharmacy and often take potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) and antipsychotics. This, coupled with a frail health state, makes NHR particularly vulnerable to adverse drug events (ADE). The value of systematic medication reviews and interprofessional co-operation for improving medication quality in NHR has been recognized. Yet the evidence of a positive effect on NHR’ health and wellbeing is inconclusive at this stage. This study investigates the effects of pharmacists’ medication reviews linked with measures to strengthen interprofessional co-operation on NHR’ medication quality, health status and health care use. Methods Pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in nursing homes in four regions of Germany. A total of 760 NHR will be recruited. Inclusion: NHR aged 65 years and over with an estimated life expectancy of at least six months. Intervention with four elements: i) introduction of a pharmacist’s medication review combined with a communication pathway to the prescribing general practitioners (GPs) and nursing home staff, ii) facilitation of change in the interprofessional cooperation, iii) educational training and iv) a “toolbox” to facilitate implementation in daily practice. Analysis: primary outcome - proportion of residents receiving PIM and ≥ 2 antipsychotics at six months follow-up. Secondary outcomes - cognitive function, falls, quality of life, medical emergency contacts, hospital admissions, and health care costs. Discussion The trial assesses the effects of a structured interprofessional medication management for NHR in Germany. It follows the participatory action research approach and closely involves the three professional groups (nursing staff, GPs, pharmacists) engaged in the medication management. A handbook based on the experiences of the trial in nursing homes will be produced for a rollout into routine practice in Germany. Trial registration Registered in the German register of clinical studies (DRKS, study ID DRKS00013588, primary register) and in the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (secondary register), both on 25th January 2018.

Background: Increasingly more very old people are active drivers. Sensory, motor and cognitive limitations, and medication can increase safety risks. Timely attention to driving safety in the patient–doctor relationship can promote patient-centred solutions. Aim: To explore the following questions: do GPs know which patients drive a car? Is fitness to drive addressed with patients? Design & setting: Cross-sectional data from patient interviews and GP survey in the ninth follow-up phase of a prospective primary care cohort (the German Study on Ageing, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe) and the Study on Needs, Health Service Use, Costs and Health-Related Quality of Life in a large sample of ‘oldest-old’ primary care patients (≥85 years; AgeQualiDe)) . Method: The sample consisted of patients in the age group ≥85 years and their GPs. Independent reports were gathered on driving activity from the GP and the patient, and information was gained from GPs on whether driving ability was discussed with the patient. Statistical analyses included validity parameters and bivariate characterisation of subgroups (non-parametric significance tests, effect size). Results: Self-reports of 553 patients were available (69.5% female; mean age 90.5 years; 15.9% drive a car). For 427 patients, GP data were also available: GPs recognised 67.1% correctly as drivers and 94.9% as non-drivers. GPs said that they had discussed fitness to drive with 32.1% of potentially driving patients. Among drivers who were not recognised and with whom driving had not been discussed, there were more patients with a low educational level. Conclusion: The GP’s assessment of driving activity among very old patients showed moderate sensitivity and good specificity. Driving ability was seldom discussed. Asking an appropriate question during assessment could increase GPs’ awareness of older patients’ automobility.

Objectives The aims of our study were to examine the anticholinergic drug use and to assess the association between anticholinergic burden and cognitive function in the multimorbid elderly patients of the MultiCare cohort.Setting MultiCare was conducted as a longitudinal cohort study in primary care, located in eight different study centres in Germany.Participants 3189 patients (59.3% female).Primary and secondary outcome measures Baseline data were used for the following analyses. Drugs were classified according to the well-established anticholinergic drug scale (ADS) and the recently published German anticholinergic burden (German ACB). Cognitive function was measured using a letter digit substitution test (LDST) and a mixed-effect multivariate linear regression was performed to calculate the influence of anticholinergic burden on the cognitive function.Results Patients used 1764 anticholinergic drugs according to ADS and 2750 anticholinergics according to the German ACB score (prevalence 38.4% and 53.7%, respectively). The mean ADS score was 0.8 (±1.3), and the mean German ACB score was 1.2 (±1.6) per patient. The most common ADS anticholinergic was furosemide (5.8%) and the most common ACB anticholinergic was metformin (13.7%). The majority of the identified anticholinergics were drugs with low anticholinergic potential: 80.2% (ADS) and 73.4% (ACB), respectively. An increasing ADS and German ACB score was associated with reduced cognitive function according to the LDST (−0.26; p=0.008 and −0.24; p=0.003, respectively).Conclusion Multimorbid elderly patients are in a high risk for using anticholinergic drugs according to ADS and German ACB score. We especially need to gain greater awareness for the contribution of drugs with low anticholinergic potential from the cardiovascular system. As anticholinergic drug use is associated with reduced cognitive function in multimorbid elderly patients, the importance of rational prescribing and also deprescribing needs to be further evaluated.Trial registration number ISRCTN89818205.

Background The objective of this study was to investigate inter- and intraobserver reliability of the morphological Mutch classification for greater tuberosity (GT) fragments in consecutive proximal humerus fractures (PHF) regardless of the number of parts according to the Codman classification system for three different imaging modalities (plain radiographs, two-dimensional [2-D] computed tomography [CT], and reformatted, three-dimensional [3-D] CT reconstruction). Materials and methods One hundred thirty-eight consecutive PHF with GT involvement were identified between January 2018 and December 2018 in a supraregional Level 1 trauma center. GT morphology was classified by three blinded observers according to the morphological Mutch classification using the picture archiving and communication software Visage 7.1 (Visage Imaging Inc., San Diego, CA, USA). Fleiss’ and Cohens’ kappa were assessed for inter- and intraobserver reliability. Strength of agreement for kappa (k) values was interpreted according to the Landis and Koch benchmark scale. Results In cases of isolated GT fractures (n = 24), the morphological Mutch classification achieved consistently substantial values for interobserver reliability (radiograph: k = 0.63; 2-D CT: k = 0.75; 3-D CT: k = 0.77). Moreover, use of advanced imaging (2-D and 3-D CT) tends to increase reliability. Consistently substantial mean values were found for intraobserver agreement (radiograph: Ø k = 0.72; 2-D CT: Ø k = 0.8; 3-D CT: Ø k = 0.76). In cases of multi-part PHF with GT involvement (n = 114), interobserver agreement was only slight to fair regardless of imaging modality (radiograph: k = 0.3; 2-D CT: k = 0.17; 3-D CT: k = 0.05). Intraobserver agreement achieved fair to moderate mean values (radiograph: Ø k = 0.56; 2-D CT: Ø k = 0.61; 3-D CT: Ø k = 0.33). Conclusion The morphological Mutch classification remains a reliable classification for isolated GT fractures, even with 2-D or 3-D CT imaging. Usage of these advanced imaging modalities tends to increase interobserver reliability. However, its reliability for multi-part fractures with GT involvement is limited. A simple and reliable classification is missing for this fracture entity.

ObjectivesSocial isolation is increasing in aging societies and several studies have shown a relation with worse cognition in old age. However, less is known about the association in the oldest-old (85+); the group that is at highest risk for both social isolation and dementia.MethodsAnalyses were based on follow-up 5 to 9 of the longitudinal German study on aging, cognition, and dementia in primary care patients (AgeCoDe) and the study on needs, health service use, costs, and health-related quality of life in a large sample of oldest-old primary care patients (AgeQualiDe), a multi-center population-based prospective cohort study. Measurements included the Lubben Social Network Scale (LSNS-6), with a score below 12 indicating social isolation, as well as the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) as an indicator of cognitive function.ResultsDementia-free study participants (n = 942) were M = 86.4 (SD = 3.0) years old at observation onset, 68.2% were women. One third (32.3%) of them were socially isolated. Adjusted linear hybrid mixed effects models revealed significantly lower cognitive function in individuals with smaller social networks (β = 0.5, 95% CI = 0.3–0.7, p < .001). Moreover, changes in an individual’s social network size were significantly associated with cognitive changes over time (β = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.1–0.4, p = .003), indicating worse cognitive function with shrinking social networks.ConclusionSocial isolation is highly prevalent among oldest-old individuals, being a risk factor for decreases in cognitive function. Consequently, it is important to maintain a socially active lifestyle into very old age. Likewise, this calls for effective ways to prevent social isolation.

Abstract Background The prevalence of pain is very common in the oldest age group. Managing pain successfully is a key topic in primary care, especially within the ageing population. Different care settings might have an impact on the prevalence of pain and everyday life. Methods Participants from the German longitudinal cohort study on Needs, Health Service Use, Costs and Health-related Quality of Life in a large Sample of Oldest-old Primary Care Patients (85+) (AgeQualiDe) were asked to rate their severity of pain as well as the impairment with daily activities. Besides gender, age, education, BMI and use of analgesics we focused on the current housing situation and on cognitive state. Associations of the dependent measures were tested using four ordinal logistic regression models. Model 1 and 4 consisted of the overall sample, model 2 and 3 were divided according to no cognitive impairment (NCI) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Results Results show a decline in pain at very old age but nonetheless a high prevalence among the 85+ year olds. Sixty-three per cent of the participants report mild to severe pain and 69% of the participants mild to extreme impairment due to pain with daily activities. Use of analgesics, depression and living at home with care support are significantly associated with higher and male gender with lower pain ratings. Conclusions Sufficient pain management among the oldest age group is inevitable. Outpatient care settings are at risk of overlooking pain. Therefore focus should be set on pain management in these settings.

Abstract Background The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators tool (SPICT) supports the identification of patients with potential palliative care (PC) needs. An Austrian-German expert group translated SPICT into German (SPICT-DE) in 2014. The aim of this study was the systematic development, refinement, and testing of SPICT-DE for its application in primary care (general practice). Methods SPICT-DE was developed by a multiprofessional research team according to the TRAPD model: translation, review, adjudication, pretesting and documentation. In a pretest, five general practitioners (GPs) rated four case vignettes of patients with different PC needs. GPs were asked to assess whether each patient might benefit from PC or not (I) based on their subjective appraisal (“usual practice”) and (II) by using SPICT-DE. After further refinement, two focus groups with 28 GPs (68% with a further qualification in PC) were conducted to test SPICT-DE. Again, participants rated two selected case vignettes (I) based on their subjective appraisal and (II) by using SPICT-DE. Afterwards, participants reflected the suitability of SPICT-DE for use in their daily practice routine within the German primary care system. Quantitative data were analysed with descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests for small samples. Qualitative data were analysed by conventional content analysis. Focus group discussion was analysed combining formal and conventional content analysis. Results Compared to the spontaneous rating of the case vignettes based on subjective appraisal, participants in both the pretest and the focus groups considered PC more often as being beneficial for the patients described in the case vignettes when using SPICT-DE. Participants in the focus groups agreed that SPICT-DE includes all relevant indicators necessary for an adequate clinical identification of patients who might benefit from PC. Conclusions SPICT-DE supports the identification of patients who might benefit from PC and seems suitable for routine application in general practice in Germany. The systematic development, refinement, and testing of SPICT-DE in this study was successfully completed by using a multiprofessional and participatory approach.

Abstract Background Depression is one of the most common mental disorders in old age and is associated with various negative health consequences for the affected individual. Studies suggest that patients’ views on depression have an impact on help-seeking behaviour and treatment. It is thus important to investigate the patient’s perspective in order to ascertain optimum management of depression in late life. However, studies on depression and its treatment exploring the perspectives of primary care patients 75 years or older, are rare. Methods Qualitative data was collected in semi-structured interviews with 12 primary care patients 75 years of age or older with symptoms of depression. Data was analysed using qualitative content analysis. Results The study’s results show the multifaceted views on and treatment of depression in primary care patients 75 years of age or older. Some patients seemed well informed about depression and believed in the efficacy of different treatments, such as medications or psychotherapy. However, some individuals had misconceptions about depression and its treatments. Patients mentioned that they would rather avoid talking about depression within their social network, in part of fear of negative reactions. Furthermore, participants believed that other people had little understanding for people with depression. Patients had different views on the relevance of the general practitioner’s (GP) role in treating depression; some patients believed that the GP had little importance in the treatment of depression. Conclusions This study identified positive views of primary care patients 75 years of age or older towards depression as well as views that might hinder optimal treatments. Exemplary implications for an improved management of depression are: educating older adults about depression via age-specific information and having professionals encourage patients in believing that depression is a recognised disorder.

Abstract Background Thus far, only a few longitudinal studies investigated the impact of social engagement on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and depressive symptoms in old age. Therefore, we aimed to examine the impact of social engagement on HRQoL and depressive symptoms in late life. Methods Individuals aged 75 years and over at baseline were interviewed every 1.5 years in a multicenter prospective cohort study in Germany. While HRQoL was quantified by using the Visual Analogue Scale (EQ VAS) of the EQ-5D instrument, depressive symptoms was assessed by using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Individuals reported the frequency (“never” to “every day”) of social engagement (e.g., engagement in the church, as a volunteer, in a party, or in a club) in the last four weeks. Fixed effects regressions were used to estimate the effect of social engagement on the outcome variables. Results After adjusting for age, marital status, functional status and chronic diseases, fixed effects regressions revealed that the onset of social engagement markedly increased HRQoL and considerably decreased depressive symptoms in the total sample and in women, but not men. Conclusions Our findings corroborate the relevance of social engagement for HRQoL and depressive symptoms in old age. Encouraging the individuals to start, maintain and expand social engagement in late life might help to maintain and improve HRQoL and decrease depressive symptoms.

Abstract Background Completion of advance directives (ADs) and power of attorney (POA) documents may protect a person’s autonomy in future health care situations when the individual lacks decisional capacity. As such situations become naturally much more common in old age, we specifically aimed at providing information on (i) the frequency of ADs/POA in oldest-old individuals and (ii) factors associated with having completed ADs/POA. Methods We analyzed data of oldest-old primary care patients (85+ years; including community-dwelling and institutionalized individuals) within the German AgeQualiDe study. Patients were initially recruited via their general practitioners (GPs). We calculated frequencies of ADs and POA for health care with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to evaluate the association between having ADs and POA and participants’ socio-demographic, cognitive, functional, and health-related characteristics. Results Among 868 GP patients participating in AgeQualiDe (response = 90.9%), n = 161 had dementia and n = 3 were too exhausted/ill to answer the questions. Out of the remaining 704 (81.1%) dementia-free patients (mean age = 88.7 years; SD = 3.0), 69.0% (95%-CI = 65.6–72.4) stated to having ADs and 64.6% (95%-CI = 61.1–68.2) to having a POA for health care. Individual characteristics did not explain much of the variability of the presence/absence of ADs and POA (regression models: Nagelkerke’s R2 = 0.034/0.051). The most frequently stated reasons for not having ADs were that the older adults trust their relatives or physicians to make the right decisions for them when necessary (stated by 59.4% and 44.8% of those without ADs). Among the older adults with ADs, the majority had received assistance in its preparation (79.0%), most frequently from their children/grandchildren (38.3%). Children/grandchildren were also the most frequently stated group of designated persons (76.7%) for those with a POA for health care. Conclusions Our findings suggest a high dissemination of ADs and POA for health care in the oldest-old in Germany. Some adults without ADs/POA perhaps would have completed advance care documents, if they had had received more information and support. When planning programs to offer advanced care planning to the oldest old, it might be helpful to respond to these specific needs, and also to be sensitive to attitudinal differences in this target group.

Background: Multimorbidity in elderly patients is a major challenge for physicians, because of a high prevalence of and associations with many adverse outcomes. However, the mechanisms of progressing multimorbidity are not well-understood. The aim of our study was to determine if the progression of multimorbidity is influenced by health behaviour and social support and to analyse if the patients’ socio-economic status had an effect on these prognostic factors. Methods: The study was designed as prospective cohort study based on interviews of 158 GPs and 3189 patients randomly selected from GP records (response rate: 46.2%). Patients were aged 65–85 years at recruitment and observed in four waves of data collection (dropout rate: 41.5%). Statistical analyses of the ‘hot deck’ imputed data included multilevel mixed-effects linear regression allowing for random effects at the study centre and GP practice within study centre level. Results: Regarding cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, multimorbidity progressed more rapidly in patients who reported less physical activity ( ß = −0.28; 95% confidence interval = −0.35 to −0.20), had more tobacco-related pack years (0.15; 0.07–0.22) and consumed less alcohol (−0.21; −0.31 to −0.12) at baseline. Multimorbidity related to psychiatric and pain-related disorders progressed more rapidly if the patients had less perceived social support (−0.31; −0.55 to −0.07) and reported less physical activity (−0.08; −0.15 to −0.02) at baseline. Education and income only slightly modified the effects of these variables. Conclusion: Depending on the multimorbidity cluster, different strategies should be used for slowing down the progression of multimorbidity. Changing lifestyle and increasing social support are beneficial for the entire group of elderly multimorbid patients – regardless of their socio-economic status. Registration: ISRCTN89818205

Background: Anxiety in adults is a common mental health problem. However, studies on anxiety in the oldest-old are lacking. We sought to identify the age- and gender-specific prevalence of anxiety symptoms in a large sample of general practice patients. Furthermore, we investigated relevant associations of anxiety specifically with respect to recent experience of loss.Methods: Based on the German Study on Ageing, Cognition and Dementia in general practice patients, a sample of 897 patients aged 82 years and older was assessed. Anxiety was assessed using the short form of the Geriatric Anxiety Inventory (GAI-SF). For the assessment of loss, patients were asked whether there were cases of death in their closer social environment since the last assessment. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses were run.Results: Of the oldest-old individuals (aged 82+ years, mean age: 86.8), 14.5% (95% CI 12.4–16.8) suffered from anxiety symptoms. Highest prevalence rates were found for 82- to 85-year-old women (17.2%, 95% CI 12.6–22.1) and for 86- to 90-year-old patients (both sexes) in general (15.9%, 95% CI 12.6–19.2). Older individuals who experienced cases of death in their close social environment within the last 18 months had almost twice the odds [odds ratio (OR) 1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15–3.17] of reporting anxiety compared to those without a recent loss. As expected, depression and impaired cognitive status were associated with the presence of anxiety symptoms. No relation was found between social network, gender, age, frailty, or physical illness and anxiety in regression analysis.Conclusions: This study provides for the first time age- and gender-specific prevalence rates of anxiety symptoms and associated risk factors among a large population-based sample of oldest-old primary care attenders. Anxiety is highly prevalent in individuals aged 82 years and older. Depression, impaired cognitive status, and recent experience of loss are associated with late-life anxiety. Our findings support the idea that recent experience of loss should be taken seriously in the context of clinical practice with respect to diagnosing and treating anxiety in old age.

Multimorbidity and its associated polypharmacy contribute to an increase in adverse drug events, hospitalizations, and healthcare spending. This study aimed to address: what exists regarding polypharmacy management in the European Union (EU); why programs were, or were not, developed; and, how identified initiatives were developed, implemented, and sustained.Change management principles (Kotter) and normalization process theory (NPT) informed data collection and analysis. Nine case studies were conducted in eight EU countries: Germany (Lower Saxony), Greece, Italy (Campania), Poland, Portugal, Spain (Catalonia), Sweden (Uppsala), and the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland and Scotland). The workflow included a review of country/region specific polypharmacy policies, key informant interviews with stakeholders involved in policy development and implementation and, focus groups of clinicians and managers. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis of individual cases and framework analysis across cases.Polypharmacy initiatives were identified in five regions (Catalonia, Lower Saxony, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Uppsala) and included all care settings. There was agreement, even in cases without initiatives, that polypharmacy is a significant issue to address. Common themes regarding the development and implementation of polypharmacy management initiatives were: locally adapted solutions, organizational culture supporting innovation and teamwork, adequate workforce training, multidisciplinary teams, changes in workflow, redefinition of roles and responsibilities of professionals, policies and legislation supporting the initiative, and data management and information and communication systems to assist development and implementation. Depending on the setting, these were considered either facilitators or barriers to implementation.Within the studied EU countries, polypharmacy management was not widely addressed. These results highlight the importance of change management and theory-based implementation strategies, and provide examples of polypharmacy management initiatives that can assist managers and policymakers in developing new programs or scaling up existing ones, particularly in places currently lacking such initiatives.

Abstract Background Our objectives were (1) to test the association between the report of subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and prospective objective cognitive performance in high age individuals and (2) to study the course of longitudinal cognitive performance before and after the first report of SCD. Methods Cognitively normal elderly participants of the German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia study (N = 2330) with SCD (subjective decline in memory with and without associated concerns) and without SCD at baseline were assessed over 8 years with regard to immediate and delayed verbal recall, verbal fluency, working memory, and global cognition. Baseline performance and cognitive trajectories were compared between groups. In addition, cognitive trajectories before and after the initial report of SCD (incident SCD) were modelled in those without SCD at baseline. Results Baseline performance in the SCD group was lower and declined more steeply in immediate and delayed verbal recall than in the control group (no SCD at baseline). This effect was more pronounced in the SCD group with concerns. Incident SCD was preceded by decline in immediate and delayed memory and word fluency. Conclusions SCD predicts future memory decline. Incident SCD is related to previous cognitive decline. The latter finding supports the concept of SCD indicating first subtle decline in cognitive performance that characterizes preclinical Alzheimer's disease.

Background: Social relations and depressive symptoms are intertwined. They both predict subsequent dementia, but only few studies on the association between social life aspects and subsequent dementia exist. Methods: The risk of subsequent dementia was estimated over 2 follow-up assessments, each 18 months apart, depending on leisure activity, social support (general scale and the 3 factors emotional support, practical support, and social integration), and depressive symptoms, using proportional hazard models in a cohort of elderly patients (n = 2,300, with a mean age of 82.45 years) recruited for the study by their general practitioners. Results: Higher depressive symptoms and lower cognitive and physical activity were associated with an increased risk of subsequent all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). While neither social engagement nor the general social support scale was associated with subsequent dementia, a higher level of social integration was associated with a lower dementia risk. In combined models, the results for activity variables remained similar, but the strength of the association between depressive symptoms and the subsequent risk of dementia decreased, and the association with social integration disappeared. Conclusions: Depressive symptoms increased and activity variables decreased the risk of subsequent dementia; however, activity variables, namely cognitive and physical activity, partly mediated the effect of depressive symptoms on the subsequent risk of all-cause dementia and AD. In many cases, social support was not associated with a risk of subsequent dementia.

Inappropriate use of multiple medicines (inappropriate polypharmacy) is a major challenge in older people with consequences of increased prevalence and severity of adverse drug reactions and interactions, and reduced medicines adherence. The aim of this study was to determine the levels of consensus amongst key stakeholders in the European Union (EU) in relation to aspects of the management of polypharmacy in older people.Forty-six statements were developed on aspects of healthcare structures, processes and desired outcomes, with consensus defined at ≥ 80% agreement. Panel members were strategists (e.g. directors, leading clinicians and commissioners) from each of the 28 EU member states, with a target recruitment of five per member state. Three Delphi rounds were conducted via email, with panel members being provided with summative results and collated, anonymised comments at the commencement of Rounds 2 and 3.Ninety panel members were recruited (64.3% of target), with high participation levels throughout the three Delphi rounds (91.1%, 83.3%, 72.2%). During Round 1, consensus was obtained for 27/46 statements (58.7%), with an additional two statements in Round 2 and none in Round 3. Consensus was obtained for statements relating to: potential gain arising from polypharmacy management (3/4 statements); strategic development (7/7); change management (5/7) indicator measures (4/6); legislation (0/3); awareness raising (5/5); polypharmacy reviews (5/7); and EU vision (0/7). Analysis of free text comments indicated that the vision statements were too ambitious and not achievable by the specified timeframe of 2025.Consensus was obtained amongst key EU strategists around many aspects of polypharmacy management in older people. Notably, no consensus was achieved in relation to statements relating to the need to alter legislation in areas of healthcare delivery, remuneration and practitioner scope of practice. While the vision for the EU by 2025 was considered rather ambitious, there is great potential and clear opportunity to advance polypharmacy management throughout the EU and beyond.

OBJECTIVE:Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might represent the first symptomatic representation of Alzheimer's disease (AD), which is associated with increased mortality. Only few studies, however, have analyzed the association of SCD and mortality, and if so, based on prevalent cases. Thus, we investigated incident SCD in memory and mortality. METHODS:Data were derived from the German AgeCoDe study, a prospective longitudinal study on the epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in primary care patients over 75 years covering an observation period of 7.5 years. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to examine the relationship of SCD and mortality. Further, we estimated survival times by the Kaplan Meier method and case-fatality rates with regard to SCD. RESULTS:Among 971 individuals without objective cognitive impairment, 233 (24.0%) incidentally expressed SCD at follow-up I. Incident SCD was not significantly associated with increased mortality in the univariate (HR = 1.0, 95% confidence interval = 0.8-1.3, p = .90) as well as in the multivariate analysis (HR = 0.9, 95% confidence interval = 0.7-1.2, p = .40). The same applied for SCD in relation to concerns. Mean survival time with SCD was 8.0 years (SD = 0.1) after onset. CONCLUSION:Incident SCD in memory in individuals with unimpaired cognitive performance does not predict mortality. The main reason might be that SCD does not ultimately lead into future cognitive decline in any case. However, as prevalence studies suggest, subjectively perceived decline in non-memory cognitive domains might be associated with increased mortality. Future studies may address mortality in such other cognitive domains of SCD in incident cases.

Background: Evidence whether single “cognitive health” foods could prevent cognitive decline is limited. We investigated whether dietary intake of red wine, white wine, coffee, green tea, olive oil, fresh fish, fruits and vegetables, red meat and sausages, assessed by a single-food-questionnaire, would be associated with either incident Alzheimer’s dementia (AD) or verbal memory decline. Methods: Participants aged 75+ of the German Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe) cohort were regularly followed over 10 years (n = 2622; n = 418 incident AD cases). Multivariable-adjusted joint modeling of repeated-measures and survival analysis was used, taking gender and Apolipoprotein E4 (APOE ε4) genotype into account as possible effect modifiers. Results: Only higher red wine intake was associated with a lower incidence of AD (HR = 0.92; P = 0.045). Interestingly, this was true only for men (HR = 0.82; P < 0.001), while in women higher red wine intake was associated with a higher incidence of AD (HR = 1.15; P = 0.044), and higher white wine intake with a more pronounced memory decline over time (HR = −0.13; P = 0.052). Conclusion: We found no evidence for these single foods to be protective against cognitive decline, with the exception of red wine, which reduced the risk for AD only in men. Women could be more susceptible to detrimental effects of alcohol.

OBJECTIVE:To investigate time-dependent predictors of institutionalization in old age using a longitudinal approach. METHODS:In a representative survey of the German general population aged 75 years and older predictors of institutionalization were observed every 1.5 years over six waves. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions (with 201 individuals and 960 observations) were performed to estimate the effects of marital status, depression, dementia, and physical impairments (mobility, hearing and visual impairments) on the risk of admission to old-age home or nursing home. By exploiting the longitudinal data structure using panel econometric models, we were able to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as genetic predisposition and personality traits. RESULTS:The probability of institutionalization increased significantly with occurrence of widowhood, depression, dementia, as well as walking and hearing impairments. In particular, the occurrence of widowhood (OR = 78.3), dementia (OR = 154.1) and substantial mobility impairment (OR = 36.7) were strongly associated with institutionalization. CONCLUSION:Findings underline the strong influence of loss of spouse as well as dementia on institutionalization. This is relevant as the number of old people (a) living alone and (b) suffering from dementia is expected to increase rapidly in the next decades. Consequently, it is supposed that the demand for institutionalization among the elderly will increase considerably. Practitioners as well as policy makers should be aware of these upcoming challenges.

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to describe and analyze the effects of depression on health care utilization and costs in a sample of multimorbid elderly patients.MethodThis cross-sectional analysis used data of a prospective cohort study, consisting of 1,050 randomly selected multimorbid primary care patients aged 65 to 85 years. Depression was defined as a score of six points or more on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Subjects passed a geriatric assessment, including a questionnaire for health care utilization. The impact of depression on health care costs was analyzed using multiple linear regression models. A societal perspective was adopted.ResultsPrevalence of depression was 10.7%. Mean total costs per six-month period were €8,144 (95% CI: €6,199-€10,090) in patients with depression as compared to €3,137 (95% CI: €2,735-€3,538; pConclusionAmong multimorbid elderly patients, depression was associated with significantly higher health care utilization and costs. The effect of depression on costs was even greater than reported by previous studies conducted in less morbid patients.

Obesity and the accompanying increased morbidity and mortality risk is highly prevalent among older adults. As obese elderly might benefit from intentional weight reduction, it is necessary to determine associated and potentially modifiable factors on senior obesity. This cross-sectional study focuses on multi-morbid patients which make up the majority in primary care. It reports on the prevalence of senior obesity and its associations with lifestyle behaviors.A total of 3,189 non-demented, multi-morbid participants aged 65-85 years were recruited in primary care within the German MultiCare-study. Physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and quantity and quality of nutritional intake were classified as relevant lifestyle factors. Body Mass Index (BMI, general obesity) and waist circumference (WC, abdominal obesity) were used as outcome measures and regression analyses were conducted.About one third of all patients were classified as obese according to BMI. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 73.5%. Adjusted for socio-demographic variables and objective and subjective disease burden, participants with low physical activity had a 1.6 kg/m2 higher BMI as well as a higher WC (4.9 cm, p

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity has a negative impact on health-related quality of life (HRQL). Previous studies included only a limited number of conditions. In this study, we analyse the impact of a large number of conditions on HRQL in multimorbid patients without preselecting particular diseases. We also explore the effects of these conditions on the specific dimensions of HRQL. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis is based on a multicenter, prospective cohort study of 3189 multimorbid primary care patients aged 65 to 85. The impact of 45 conditions on HRQL was analysed. The severity of the conditions was rated. The EQ-5D, consisting of 5 dimensions and a visual-analogue-scale (EQ VAS), was employed. Data were analysed using multiple ordinary least squares and multiple logistic regressions. Multimorbidity measured by a weighted count score was significantly associated with lower overall HRQL (EQ VAS), b = -1.02 (SE: 0.06). Parkinson's disease had the most pronounced negative effect on overall HRQL (EQ VAS), b = -12.29 (SE: 2.18), followed by rheumatism, depression, and obesity. With regard to the individual EQ-5D dimensions, depression (OR = 1.39 to 3.3) and obesity (OR = 1.44 to 1.95) affected all five dimensions of the EQ-5D negatively except for the dimension anxiety/depression. Obesity had a positive effect on this dimension, OR = 0.78 (SE: 0.07). The dimensions "self-care", OR = 4.52 (SE: 1.37) and "usual activities", OR = 3.59 (SE: 1.0), were most strongly affected by Parkinson's disease. As a limitation our sample may only represent patients with at most moderate disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: The overall HRQL of multimorbid patients decreases with an increasing count and severity of conditions. Parkinson's disease, depression and obesity have the strongest impact on HRQL. Further studies should address the impact of disease combinations which require very large sample sizes as well as advanced statistical methods.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse predictors of costs in dementia from a societal perspective in a longitudinal setting. METHOD: Healthcare resource use and costs were assessed retrospectively using a questionnaire in four waves at 6-month intervals in a sample of dementia patients (N = 175). Sociodemographic data, dementia severity and comorbidity at baseline, cognitive impairment and impairment in basic and instrumental activities of daily living were also recorded. Linear mixed regression models with random intercepts for individuals were used to analyse predictors of total and sector-specific costs. RESULTS: Impairment in activities of daily living significantly predicted total costs in dementia patients, with associations between basic activities of daily living and formal care costs on the one and instrumental activities of daily living and informal care costs on the other hand. Nursing home residence was associated with lower total costs than residence in the community. There was no effect of cognition on total or sector-specific costs. CONCLUSION: Cognitive deficits in dementia are associated with costs only via their effect on the patients' capacity for activities of daily living. Transition into a nursing home may reduce total costs from a societal perspective, owing to the fact that a high amount of informal care required by severely demented patients prior to transition into a nursing home may cause higher costs than inpatient nursing care.

BACKGROUND: Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs.