Myriam Labopin, Miguel-Angel Perales, Jurjen Versluis, Richard J. O'Reilly, Ibrahim Yakoub-Agha, Esperanza B. Papadopoulos, Maria H. Gilleece, Fabio Ciceri, Ann A. Jakubowski, Jacques-Emmanuel Galimard, Roni Tamari, Christoph Schmid, Annalisa Ruggeri, Ali Bazarbachi, Sergio Giralt, Selim Corbacioglu, Sebastian Giebel, Gesine Bug, Zinaida Peric, Joshua A Fein, Roni Shouval, Mohamad Mohty, Bipin N. Savani, Craig S. Sauter, Arnon Nagler, Jaime Sanz, Alexandros Spyridonidis, Silvia Montoto, Frédéric Baron, Christina Cho, Shouval, R., Fein, J. A., Labopin, M., Cho, C., Bazarbachi, A., Baron, F., Bug, G., Ciceri, F., Corbacioglu, S., Galimard, J. -E., Giebel, S., Gilleece, M. H., Giralt, S., Jakubowski, A., Montoto, S., O'Reilly, R. J., Papadopoulos, E. B., Peric, Z., Ruggeri, A., Sanz, J., Sauter, C. S., Savani, B. N., Schmid, C., Spyridonidis, A., Tamari, R., Versluis, J., Yakoub-Agha, I., Perales, M. A., Mohty, M., Nagler, A., and Hematology
Background: Diagnosis and remission status at the time of allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) are the principal determinants of overall survival following transplantation. We sought to develop a contemporary disease-risk stratification system (DRSS) that accounts for heterogeneous transplantation indications. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study we included 55 histology and remission status combinations across haematological malignancies, including acute leukaemia, lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and myeloproliferative and myelodysplastic disorders. A total of 47 265 adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who received an allogeneic HSCT between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2016, and were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry were included. We divided EBMT patients into derivation (n=25 534), tuning (n=18 365), and geographical validation (n=3366) cohorts. Disease combinations were ranked in a multivariable Cox regression for overall survival in the derivation cohort, cutoff for risk groups were evaluated for the tuning cohort, and the selected system was tested on the geographical validation cohort. An independent single-centre US cohort of 660 patients transplanted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2015 was used to externally validate the results. Findings: The DRSS model stratified patients in the derivation cohort (median follow-up was 2·1 years [IQR 1·0–3·2]) into five risk groups with increasing mortality risk: low risk (reference group), intermediate-1 (hazard ratio for overall survival 1·26 [95% CI 1·17–1·36], p