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Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae), is greatly affected by climatic factors and exhibits strong adaptability, posing a serious threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, predicting its potential suitable habitat distribution provides a proactive theoretical basis for pest control. This study using the Biomod2 package of R simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution, area changes, changes in the center points of suitable habitats, and niche shifts of C. kiangsu under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-26 and SSP5-85. The results show that: (1) Currently, the high suitability areas for C. kiangsu are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan provinces in southern China and phongsaly province in northern Laos. In the future, the center of the suitable habitat distribution pattern of C. kiangsu will remain unchanged, primarily expanding outward from medium and high suitability areas. Additionally, significant suitable habitats for C. kiangsu were discovered in Southeast Asian countries without previous pest records. (2) Compared to the present, the overall suitable habitat area for C. kiangsu is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-85 climate change scenario. (3) In the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, the geometric center of the suitable habitat generally shows a trend of gradually shifting northeast. (4) Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu has highly overlapping, indicating that the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu in the invaded areas is broader than in its native regions. In conclusion, the research findings represent a breakthrough in identifying the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu, which is of great practical significance for the monitoring and control of C. kiangsu pest infestation in China and Southeast Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high‐density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling‐Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid‐subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature‐related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tapiscia sinensis Oliv. (T. sinensis), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the Staphyleaceae family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of T. sinensis in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of T. sinensis under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of T. sinensis forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of T. sinensis and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for T. sinensis are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 104 km2. (2) In three suitable community categories, T. sinensis is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for T. sinensis will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for T. sinensis primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of T. sinensis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study predicted the potential habitats of Monochamus alternatus, a known vector of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, utilizing its occurrence points and environmental variables—ecoclimatic indices and terrain variables. SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were applied to predict the potential habitat under climate change. We secured the 20,514 occurrence points of Monochamus alternatus among the points with geographic coordinates of PWD-affected trees (2017–2022). The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ensemble model (ensemble) were used to identify and compare the variability of potential habitats in the baseline period, near future, intermediate future, and distant future. At the outset, both the MaxEnt and the ensemble models showed a high model fit, and the ensemble was judged to be relatively superior. Next, both models showed that the habitat will expand northward according to climate change scenarios. Finally, the binary maps were superimposed to examine the differences between individual and multiple models; both models showed similar distributions in the baseline period and near future. Nonetheless, MaxEnt tended to overestimate expansion in the intermediate and far future. In the future, it is expected that the accuracy and reliability of forecasts can be improved by building optimized models to reduce uncertainty by supplementing field data and collaborating with model experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 104 km2. The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche's geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche's geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Ceracris kiangsu (Orthoptera: Arcypteridae), is greatly affected by climatic factors and exhibits strong adaptability, posing a serious threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, predicting its potential suitable habitat distribution provides a proactive theoretical basis for pest control. This study using the Biomod2 package of R simulated and predicted the current and future potential distribution, area changes, changes in the center points of suitable habitats, and niche shifts of C. kiangsu under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, SSP1-26 and SSP5-85. The results show that: (1) Currently, the high suitability areas for C. kiangsu are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Hunan provinces in southern China and phongsaly province in northern Laos. In the future, the center of the suitable habitat distribution pattern of C. kiangsu will remain unchanged, primarily expanding outward from medium and high suitability areas. Additionally, significant suitable habitats for C. kiangsu were discovered in Southeast Asian countries without previous pest records. (2) Compared to the present, the overall suitable habitat area for C. kiangsu is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-85 climate change scenario. (3) In the SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, the geometric center of the suitable habitat generally shows a trend of gradually shifting northeast. (4) Under different climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu has highly overlapping, indicating that the suitable habitat of C. kiangsu in the invaded areas is broader than in its native regions. In conclusion, the research findings represent a breakthrough in identifying the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu, which is of great practical significance for the monitoring and control of C. kiangsu pest infestation in China and Southeast Asian countries.

Simple Summary: The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) represents a significant quarantine pest affecting cassavas. This study seeks to elucidate the patterns of the suitable habitat and distribution centers of cassava mealybugs in China, as well as their dynamic ecological niche in invaded areas under the influence of climate change. Climate factors have primarily concentrated suitable habitats for cassava mealybugs in the southern regions of China, with minimal observed changes and a slight northward expansion. The dynamic ecological niche is also projected to expand slightly. Based on these predictions, relevant quarantine agencies can implement measures to prevent the introduction and spread of cassava mealybugs. The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest's distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the factors affecting terrestrial ecosystems through global climate variability, and by acting synergistically with other stressors, its effects on ecosystems are enhanced, potentially directly affecting biological diversity. Consequently, we have analyzed the potential distribution of ecosystems in the Southern Zone of Ecuador under a future climate change scenario (RCP 6.0 2080), which is ecologically, socially, and economically important for populations surrounding the ecosystems. To do this, we used potential distribution models (SDM) implemented in Biomod2 4.0, which uses a set of relevant methods and tools for dealing with a series of methodological uncertainties related to distribution modeling, as well as the ability to quickly build individual models or combine them in different ways through ensembles, relating biophysical variables (topographic and climatic) with the presence/absence points of ecosystems in the Southern Zone. The results indicate that the temperature would increase for all ecosystems, while precipitation in some high-altitude ecosystems, such as Paramo and Montane Forest, would decrease, unlike what would happen with other ecosystems at lower altitudes, where precipitation would show an increase (and, in the rest of the ecosystems, in general, it would show an increase). This climate variability may generate new climate configurations and ecosystems may tend to shrink or expand in response, changing their distribution range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for in situ biodiversity conservation and conservation decision‐making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black‐billed capercaillie, 102,623 km2; black grouse, 162,678 km2; wolverine, 63,410 km2; moose, 140,287 km2; sable, 112,254 km2; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km2; lynx, 139,912 km2; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km2. Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km2, and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost‐effective multi‐species protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China, rich in natural resources and diverse biodiversity, boasts a unique habitat for threatened bird species due to its remote location and perennial cold climate. An analysis assessed the adaptability of these species using data on their geographic distribution and functional traits collected through database queries. The results revealed that threatened bird species share similar functional traits and a stronger phylogenetic signal (Blomberg mean K = 0.39) compared to common species. The Biomod2 model analyzed potentially suitable ranges and environmental drivers under current and future climate scenarios, showing a pattern of larger suitable areas in southern regions and smaller suitable areas in the north. The most critically threatened species faced greater geographical constraints (0.989), with mean annual temperature being a key influence. Altitude and water system distribution were also key factors impacting the distribution of other threatened bird species. Simulated projections under different climate scenarios (RCP 45 and 85) indicated varying degrees of expansion in the suitable range for these species. This research sheds light on the functional traits and distribution of threatened bird species in Northeast China, providing a scientific foundation for future conservation and management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ancient Magnoliaceae family is being seriously threatened by climate change, especially for Yulania trees under threat. Little is currently understood regarding the appropriate geographic range of Yulania zenii, as well as how it has reacted to various climate situations from past to present. Here, we chose MaxEnt for final modeling after first using ten Biomod2 models to approximate its possible distribution in China. The findings indicated that the three main environmental parameters impacting its distribution were the monthly mean diurnal range of temperature, the precipitation seasonality of variation coefficient, and elevation. Currently, its appropriate distribution is primarily in southern Anhui, eastern Hunan, central Hubei, southern Jiangsu, and both northern Jiangxi and Zhejiang. The total suitable area of Y. zenii was found to be 14.68 × 104 km2, only taking up 1.53% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. During the Last Interglacial and Middle Holocene, its suitable habitats were larger than they are currently, exhibiting a relatively continuous distribution. Under various future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats may averagely decrease by 20.26% compared with the current case, and these habitats may become more fragmented. Collectively, the centroid of Y. zenii is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate, for the first time, that climate change has had an adverse effect on this species in terms of its distribution from the past to the current and into the future. Our study could contribute to the conservation, management, introduction, and cultivation of Y. zenii in China and provide a reference for other endangered Yulania species in this country under the conditions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Golden Kaiser-I-Hind (Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923) is the only butterfly among Class I national protected animals in China and is known as the national butterfly. In this study, by accurately predicting the suitable habitat in China under current and future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of T. aureus was defined, providing a theoretical basis for conservation and management. Based on species distribution records, we utilized the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data from the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model, future shared socio-economic pathways, and altitude data. The potential distribution areas of T. aureus in the current (1970–2000s) and future SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 climate scenarios in China in 2041–2060 (2050s), 2061–2080 (2070s), and 2081–2100 (2090s) were predicted. The AUC and TSS values of the combined model based on five algorithms were greater than those of the single models, and the AUC value of the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.990, indicating that the model had high reliability and accuracy. The screening of environmental variables showed that the habitat area of T. aureus in China was mainly affected by annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, temperature seasonality, elevation, and other factors. Under the current circumstances, the habitat area of T. aureus was mainly located in southern China, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Taiwan, and other provinces. The suitable area is approximately 138.95 × 104 km2; among them, the highly suitable area of 34.43 × 104 km2 is a priority area in urgent need of protection. Under both SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5, the population centroid tended to shift southward in the 2050s and 2070s, and began to migrate northeast in the 2090s. Temperature, rainfall, and altitude influenced the distribution of T. aureus. In the two climate scenarios, the habitat area of T. aureus declined to different degrees, and the reduction was most obvious in the SSP5_8.5 scenario; climate was the most likely environmental variable to cause a change in the geographical distribution. Climate change will significantly affect the evolution and potential distribution of T. aureus in China and will increase the risk of extinction. Accordingly, it is necessary to strengthen protection and to implement active and effective measures to reduce the negative impact of climate change on T. aureus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high‐density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling‐Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid‐subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature‐related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Abstract Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.

Abstract Background Anopheles stephensi is native to Southeast Asia and the Arabian Peninsula and has emerged as an effective and invasive malaria vector. Since invasion was reported in Djibouti in 2012, the global invasion range of An. stephensi has been expanding, and its high adaptability to the environment and the ongoing development of drug resistance have created new challenges for malaria control. Climate change is an important factor affecting the distribution and transfer of species, and understanding the distribution of An. stephensi is an important part of malaria control measures, including vector control. Methods In this study, we collected existing distribution data for An. stephensi, and based on the SSP1-2.6 future climate data, we used the Biomod2 package in R Studio through the use of multiple different model methods such as maximum entropy models (MAXENT) and random forest (RF) in this study to map the predicted global An. stephensi climatically suitable areas. Results According to the predictions of this study, some areas where there are no current records of An. stephensi, showed significant areas of climatically suitable for An. stephensi. In addition, the global climatically suitability areas for An. stephensi are expanding with global climate change, with some areas changing from unsuitable to suitable, suggesting a greater risk of invasion of An. stephensi in these areas, with the attendant possibility of a resurgence of malaria, as has been the case in Djibouti. Conclusions This study provides evidence for the possible invasion and expansion of An. stephensi and serves as a reference for the optimization of targeted monitoring and control strategies for this malaria vector in potential invasion risk areas.

The Maple-leaf oak, Quercus acerifolia (E.J.Palmer) Stoynoff & Hess, is listed as Critically Imperiled by the State of Arkansas and considered endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Oak Species. It is endemic to the interior highlands of the Ouachita Mountains in west-central Arkansas, where it is reported to occur in only four isolated locations. No specific research exists regarding predicted climate change impacts on the Q. acerifolia, but given its small range and habitat specificity, such climate change-driven impacts will likely pose significant risks to remaining populations. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to predict climatically suitable habitat for Q. acerifolia within its native range. We investigate how future changes in climate may impact habitat suitability. Currently, the estimated area of climatically suitable habitat area for Q. acerifolia is 2,523 km2. By 2050, the predicted climatically suitable habitat area is 749 km2, a 70% reduction in habitat extent. By 2100, the model ensemble predicts a suitable habitat of only 285 km2 or an 89% loss of present suitable habitat. The model ensemble also predicted climatically suitable habitat area in 20 counties (14 in Arkansas and six in Oklahoma), including the currently known four locations in Arkansas. Although Q. acerifolia is rare and is at risk of extinction due to potential climate-change driven habitat reduction, the SDM ensemble identified several new habitat areas for the species. New habitat information can be used to search for existing Q. acerifolia populations or guide reintroduction efforts, leading to enhanced focus on long-term management, conservation, and restoration of this critically-imperiled species.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate‐only model, an environment‐only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020–2039 and 2060–2079. The climate‐only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment‐only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020–2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060–2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation's total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China's total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 °C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anopheles stephensi is native to Southeast Asia and the Arabian Peninsula and has emerged as an effective and invasive malaria vector. Since invasion was reported in Djibouti in 2012, the global invasion range of An. stephensi has been expanding, and its high adaptability to the environment and the ongoing development of drug resistance have created new challenges for malaria control. Climate change is an important factor affecting the distribution and transfer of species, and understanding the distribution of An. stephensi is an important part of malaria control measures, including vector control. Methods: In this study, we collected existing distribution data for An. stephensi, and based on the SSP1-2.6 future climate data, we used the Biomod2 package in R Studio through the use of multiple different model methods such as maximum entropy models (MAXENT) and random forest (RF) in this study to map the predicted global An. stephensi climatically suitable areas. Results: According to the predictions of this study, some areas where there are no current records of An. stephensi, showed significant areas of climatically suitable for An. stephensi. In addition, the global climatically suitability areas for An. stephensi are expanding with global climate change, with some areas changing from unsuitable to suitable, suggesting a greater risk of invasion of An. stephensi in these areas, with the attendant possibility of a resurgence of malaria, as has been the case in Djibouti. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for the possible invasion and expansion of An. stephensi and serves as a reference for the optimization of targeted monitoring and control strategies for this malaria vector in potential invasion risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cupressus gigantea (C. gigantea) is an endemic endangered species on the Tibetan Plateau; its potential suitable areas and priority protection in the context of global climate change remain poorly predicted. This study utilized Biomod2 and Marxan to assess the potential suitable areas and priority protection for C. gigantea. Our study revealed that the suitable areas of C. gigantea were concentrated in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, with the center in Lang County. Temperature was identified as a crucial environmental factor influencing the distribution of C. gigantea. Over the coming decades, the suitable range of C. gigantea expanded modestly, while its overall distribution remained relatively stable. Moreover, the center of the highly suitable areas tended to migrate towards Milin County in the northeast. Presently, significant areas for improvement are needed to establish protected areas for C. gigantea. The most feasible priority protected areas were located between the Lang and Milin counties in Tibet, which have more concentrated and undisturbed habitats. These results provide scientific guidance for the conservation and planning of C. gigantea, contributing to the stability and sustainability of ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long‐term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short‐term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis, is a bark beetle native to Asia that has caused significant forest resource losses in North America since its introduction in the early 21st century. In this study, we used the niche assessment R package "ecospat" and the integrated model "biomod2" to compare 19 bioclimatic variables for A. planipennis in its native range (China) and part of its invasive range (the United States). Future data predicted for the 2050s and 2070s were utilized to forecast potential habitat regions for A. planipennis in China and the United States under two representative climate scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585). We revealed low niche overlap between A. planipennis populations in these ranges, with significant differences in bioclimatic variables. This indicates that A. planipennis has adapted to a range of climatic conditions in the United States. In upcoming times, the suitable habitat region for A. planipennis is expected to significantly decrease in the United States but considerably increase in China. Our study provides insights that can be used to prevent further A. planipennis spread, for economic loss assessment of and developing management strategies against A. planipennis, and as a methodological reference for niche analysis of other invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectiveness of Balanites aegyptiaca conservation and sustainable exploitation requires a better knowledge of the intrinsic environmental factors linked with its current and future geographic distribution. This study aimed to map suitable areas for the conservation and domestication of B. aegyptiaca under present‐day and future climate conditions in Benin. A total of 424 occurrence records of B. aegyptiaca were combined with the environmental variables of two climatic scenarios (optimistic RCP 4.5 and pessimistic RCP 8.5) following the biodiversity modeling approach (biomod2). Findings were that under current and future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), almost one‐third of the country's area (protected and non‐protected areas), mainly located in the semiarid zone, presents a high probability of suitable areas for the conservation and domestication of B. aegyptiaca by 2055 time horizon. Exceptionally, a fine portion of medium suitable area for its distribution was found in the coastal area. Whatever the future climatic scenarios, a probable potential extension of the suitable areas (2.52% for RCP 4.5 and 0.43% for RCP 8.5) will be noted, thus emphasizing a positive impact of climate changes on the species. These findings are timely and could be used for setting appropriate management policies targeting the species in Benin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we utilized 76 natural distribution points and six environmental variables to establish a detailed species distribution prediction process for Luculia pinceana Hook. f. Our aim was to explore the potential distribution patterns of L. pinceana since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and its response to climate change, providing a scientific basis for conservation strategies and the suitable introduction of its wild populations. This model enabled the prediction of L. pinceana's geographical distribution patterns across five temporal phases: the LGM, the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and two future scenarios. Additionally, the model pinpointed the dominant environmental factors influencing these distribution patterns. The results indicate the following: (1) The temperature annual range (bio7), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) are the dominant environmental factors that determine the distribution of L. pinceana. In areas where bio7 is less than 22.27 °C, bio6 is above 3.34 °C, and bio13 exceeds 307.65 mm, the suitability for L. pinceana is highest. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable area of L. pinceana accounts for 64 × 104 km2, which accounts for half of the total suitable area. The suitable habitats for L. pinceana are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, southern Nyingchi in Tibet, and the coastal areas of South China. (3) During the LGM and the MH, the suitable habitats for L. pinceana were essentially consistent with the current scenarios, with no significant southward shift in distribution. This lack of a major southward migration during the LGM could be attributed to the species finding refuge in situ in mountainous areas. (4) Under various future emission scenarios, the suitable habitat area for L. pinceana is expected to experience significant expansion, generally shifting towards the northwest and higher latitudes. The anticipated global warming in the future is likely to provide more favorable conditions for the survival of L. pinceana. It is recommended that the introduction follows the direction of centroid migration, facilitated by vegetation management, and it has the ecological and economic benefits of L. pinceana to a greater extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quercus arkansana (Arkansas oak) is at risk of becoming endangered, as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations. The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high, yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited. Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habitat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known locations of current distribution of Q. arkansana. We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q. arkansana is approximately 127,881 km2 across seven states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida); approximately 9.5% is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas. Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disappear by 2050 due to climate change, resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky. The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas suggests that a species-specific action plan incorporating protected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conservation. Moreover, protection of Q. arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies, adaptive management strategies, and educational outreach among local people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for in situ biodiversity conservation and conservation decision‐making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black‐billed capercaillie, 102,623 km2; black grouse, 162,678 km2; wolverine, 63,410 km2; moose, 140,287 km2; sable, 112,254 km2; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km2; lynx, 139,912 km2; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km2. Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km2, and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost‐effective multi‐species protection.

Abstract Northeast China, rich in natural resources and diverse biodiversity, boasts a unique habitat for threatened bird species due to its remote location and perennial cold climate. An analysis assessed the adaptability of these species using data on their geographic distribution and functional traits collected through database queries. The results revealed that threatened bird species share similar functional traits and a stronger phylogenetic signal (Blomberg mean K = 0.39) compared to common species. The Biomod2 model analyzed potentially suitable ranges and environmental drivers under current and future climate scenarios, showing a pattern of larger suitable areas in southern regions and smaller suitable areas in the north. The most critically threatened species faced greater geographical constraints (0.989), with mean annual temperature being a key influence. Altitude and water system distribution were also key factors impacting the distribution of other threatened bird species. Simulated projections under different climate scenarios (RCP 45 and 85) indicated varying degrees of expansion in the suitable range for these species. This research sheds light on the functional traits and distribution of threatened bird species in Northeast China, providing a scientific foundation for future conservation and management efforts.

Tapiscia sinensis Oliv. (T. sinensis), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the Staphyleaceae family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of T. sinensis in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of T. sinensis under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of T. sinensis forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of T. sinensis and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for T. sinensis are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 104 km2. (2) In three suitable community categories, T. sinensis is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for T. sinensis will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for T. sinensis primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of T. sinensis.

Biological invasions are among the main threats to the diversity of freshwater ecosystems, particularly invasions of freshwater crayfishes, which have negatively impacted native populations and ecosystem functions. Various invasions of freshwater crayfishes have been relatively well documented, allowing the use of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) techniques to forecast their potential invasive distribution. Modeling the most environmentally suitable areas for exotic species can provide guidelines to allocate resources, thus contributing to the control and management of invasions. We modelled the potential distribution of Cherax quadricarinatus (von Martens, 1868) and Procambarus clarkii Girard, 1852 in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean using global occurrence data and ten environmental variables to ensemble a model using nine different algorithms. Our models showed that C. quadricarinatus has a high probability of invasion in tropical lowland areas, with the presence of exotic populations of this species already reported. Our results support that P. clarkii has a higher probability of invasion in some of the mountain ranges and plateaus of the study region, where this species has already established non-native populations. These models visualize the high-risk areas of invasion of these two non-native crayfish species in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. A regional approach for monitoring and control of the invasive populations is encouraged as well as regulations for trade and aquaculture of freshwater crayfishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate‐only model, an environment‐only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020–2039 and 2060–2079. The climate‐only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment‐only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020–2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060–2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Abstract In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long‐term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short‐term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China.

Iranian semi-arid oak (Quercus brantii) forests are characterized by their sparse canopy cover and an increasing risk of wildfire. In Lorestan Province, west of Iran (28,300 km²) wildfire incidents have surged, prompting this study to perform segment-level modeling of Wildfire Susceptibility (WS) distribution. The forest cover of the province was categorized into five density classes using an object-oriented classification method applied to a composite Landsat image, ranging from Forest Edge (with less than 10 trees per hectare) to Dense Forest (exceeding 150 trees per hectare). An ensemble of models provided by Biomod2 was utilized to generate the WS layer, revealing that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) serves as a crucial indicator of WS. Dense, foliage-rich forests exhibited a heightened vulnerability to fire. Moreover, the study revealed that human activities near road networks and urban centers significantly shape wildfire patterns, accentuating the anthropogenic nature of wildfires in the central zone of the Lorestan Province. The findings pinpoint over 1600 km2 of highly susceptible areas, predominantly coinciding with dense and high-moderate forest classes, emphasizing the need for prioritized conservation efforts. The study recommends community involvement in forest protection and the promotion of alternative income sources as strategies to safeguard the diminishing forests of Lorestan.

Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 104 km2. The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche’s geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche’s geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments.

The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest’s distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs.

The Golden Kaiser-I-Hind (Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923) is the only butterfly among Class I national protected animals in China and is known as the national butterfly. In this study, by accurately predicting the suitable habitat in China under current and future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of T. aureus was defined, providing a theoretical basis for conservation and management. Based on species distribution records, we utilized the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data from the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model, future shared socio-economic pathways, and altitude data. The potential distribution areas of T. aureus in the current (1970–2000s) and future SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 climate scenarios in China in 2041–2060 (2050s), 2061–2080 (2070s), and 2081–2100 (2090s) were predicted. The AUC and TSS values of the combined model based on five algorithms were greater than those of the single models, and the AUC value of the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.990, indicating that the model had high reliability and accuracy. The screening of environmental variables showed that the habitat area of T. aureus in China was mainly affected by annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, temperature seasonality, elevation, and other factors. Under the current circumstances, the habitat area of T. aureus was mainly located in southern China, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Taiwan, and other provinces. The suitable area is approximately 138.95 × 104 km2; among them, the highly suitable area of 34.43 × 104 km2 is a priority area in urgent need of protection. Under both SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5, the population centroid tended to shift southward in the 2050s and 2070s, and began to migrate northeast in the 2090s. Temperature, rainfall, and altitude influenced the distribution of T. aureus. In the two climate scenarios, the habitat area of T. aureus declined to different degrees, and the reduction was most obvious in the SSP5_8.5 scenario; climate was the most likely environmental variable to cause a change in the geographical distribution. Climate change will significantly affect the evolution and potential distribution of T. aureus in China and will increase the risk of extinction. Accordingly, it is necessary to strengthen protection and to implement active and effective measures to reduce the negative impact of climate change on T. aureus.

The ancient Magnoliaceae family is being seriously threatened by climate change, especially for Yulania trees under threat. Little is currently understood regarding the appropriate geographic range of Yulania zenii, as well as how it has reacted to various climate situations from past to present. Here, we chose MaxEnt for final modeling after first using ten Biomod2 models to approximate its possible distribution in China. The findings indicated that the three main environmental parameters impacting its distribution were the monthly mean diurnal range of temperature, the precipitation seasonality of variation coefficient, and elevation. Currently, its appropriate distribution is primarily in southern Anhui, eastern Hunan, central Hubei, southern Jiangsu, and both northern Jiangxi and Zhejiang. The total suitable area of Y. zenii was found to be 14.68 × 104 km2, only taking up 1.53% of China’s total territory, which is larger than known. During the Last Interglacial and Middle Holocene, its suitable habitats were larger than they are currently, exhibiting a relatively continuous distribution. Under various future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats may averagely decrease by 20.26% compared with the current case, and these habitats may become more fragmented. Collectively, the centroid of Y. zenii is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate, for the first time, that climate change has had an adverse effect on this species in terms of its distribution from the past to the current and into the future. Our study could contribute to the conservation, management, introduction, and cultivation of Y. zenii in China and provide a reference for other endangered Yulania species in this country under the conditions of climate change.

Alpine treeline ecotones are highly sensitive to climate warming. The low temperature-determined alpine treeline is expected to shift upwards in response to global warming. However, little is known about how temperature interacts with other important factors to influence the distribution range of tree species within and beyond the alpine treeline ecotone. Hence, we used a GF-2 satellite image, along with bioclimatic and topographic variables, to develop an ensemble suitable habitat model based on the species distribution modeling algorithms in Biomod2. We investigated the distribution of suitable habitats for B. ermanii under three climate change scenarios (i.e., low (SSP126), moderate (SSP370) and extreme (SSP585) future emission trajectories) between two consecutive time periods (i.e., current–2055, and 2055–2085). By 2055, the potential distribution range of B. ermanii will expand under all three climate scenarios. The medium and high suitable areas will decline under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios from 2055 to 2085. Moreover, under the three climate scenarios, the uppermost altitudes of low suitable habitat will rise to 2,329 ​m a.s.l., while the altitudes of medium and high suitable habitats will fall to 2,201 and 2,051 ​m a.s.l. by 2085, respectively. Warming promotes the expansion of B. ermanii distribution range in Changbai Mountain, and this expansion will be modified by precipitation as climate warming continues. This interaction between temperature and precipitation plays a significant role in shaping the potential distribution range of B. ermanii in the alpine treeline ecotone. This study reveals the link between environmental factors, habitat distribution, and species distribution in the alpine treeline ecotone, providing valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on high-elevation vegetation, and contributing to mountain biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.

Firmiana danxiaensis (F. danxiaensis) is a special native species with a narrow distribution. More than 90 % of the plant species in the genus that F. danxiaensis belongs to are rare species with a narrow distribution. The main distribution area is Mount Danxia, a representative area of China Danxia where many endemic species of the Danxia landform have been bred. We carried out a gap analysis by overlapping the nature reserves with the potential habitat of F. danxiaensis. The results show that: (1) the potential habitat area of F. danxiaensis is 6,255.28 km2 simulated by the Biomod2 ensemble model and 4,114.19 km2 by Maxent, respectively, which accounted for 3.48 % and 2.29 % of the study area, located in Nanxiong county, Shixing county, Renhua county, and Qujiang county; (2) F. danxiaensis prefers areas with the max temperature of the warmest month over 32.5℃, the temperature seasonality between 6000 and 7000, and the occurrence probability of F. danxiaensis was at its highest level when the max temperature of the warmest month reached between 36 and 37 °C, the temperature seasonality was nearly 7000; (3) more than 40 % of the potential habitat of F. danxiaensis was anthropogenically disturbed; (4) in the potential habitat simulated by Maxent, the conservation gap area is 3,390.26 km2, accounting for 82.40 % of the total potential habitat, in the potential habitat simulated by Biomod2 ensemble model, the conservation gap area is 4.899.62 km2, accounting for 78.33 % of the total potential habitat. The protection status of F. danxiensis is poor, with populations of F. danxiaensis in Yingde and Shixing not covered by nature reserves and already subject to serious human disturbance. It is recommended that the structure of existing protected areas be adjusted, the scope of corresponding nature reserves be appropriately expanded, and new nature reserves be added to ensure the sustainable development of F. danxiaensis populations.

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation’s total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China’s total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 °C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes.

Cupressus gigantea (C. gigantea) is an endemic endangered species on the Tibetan Plateau; its potential suitable areas and priority protection in the context of global climate change remain poorly predicted. This study utilized Biomod2 and Marxan to assess the potential suitable areas and priority protection for C. gigantea. Our study revealed that the suitable areas of C. gigantea were concentrated in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, with the center in Lang County. Temperature was identified as a crucial environmental factor influencing the distribution of C. gigantea. Over the coming decades, the suitable range of C. gigantea expanded modestly, while its overall distribution remained relatively stable. Moreover, the center of the highly suitable areas tended to migrate towards Milin County in the northeast. Presently, significant areas for improvement are needed to establish protected areas for C. gigantea. The most feasible priority protected areas were located between the Lang and Milin counties in Tibet, which have more concentrated and undisturbed habitats. These results provide scientific guidance for the conservation and planning of C. gigantea, contributing to the stability and sustainability of ecosystems.

Ricinodendron heudelotii (Baill.) Heckel is an important nutraceutical reservoir. Its Sustainable exploitation requires information on its potential distribution in the current context of rapid population growth and climate change threats. This study aimed to map the suitable areas for its domestication and conservation under current and future climate conditions in Benin. Occurrence data were recorded and combined with the environmental layers of two climatic scenarios (optimistic RCP 4.5 and pessimistic RCP 8.5) following the biodiversity modelling approach (biomod2). Currently, about four percent (5082 Km2) of the country's area mainly located in the sub-humid and the humid zones were potentially suitable for R. heudelotii distribution. Under future climatic conditions the potentially suitable areas were mainly in the sub-humid zone, but almost all the highly suitable areas located in the humid zone will become medium suitable areas by the years 2055 and 2085 horizons. This study shows that, whatever the future climatic scenarios, R. heudelotii will substantially maintain the size of its range across the country. These findings allow undertaking anticipated actions to better adapt to the potential effects of climate change and to better guide policies for the conservation and development of forest resources.

Understanding drivers of space use and habitat selection is essential for management and conservation, especially under rapid environmental change. Here, we develop summer and winter habitat suitability models for the endemic wild Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). The High Arctic Svalbard tundra is currently subject to the fastest temperature increases on Earth, and reindeer spatial responses to associated environmental change are strongly restricted due to landscape barriers (including 60% glacial coverage) and lack of sea ice as movement corridors. We used an extensive dataset of GPS-collared adult females (2009–2018; N = 268 individual-years) to model seasonal habitat selection as a function of remotely sensed environmental variables , and subsequently built habitat suitability models using an ensemble modelling framework. As expected, we found that reindeer preferred productive habitats, described by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and plant biomass (derived from a vegetation map), in both seasons. This was further supported by selection for bird cliff areas, rich in forage, improving habitat suitability especially in winter. Contrary to our expectations, the terrain variables had similar, impact on habitat suitability in the two seasons, except for use of higher elevations in winter, likely related to improved forage access due to less snow. Suitable habitat patches covered only a small proportion of the landscape and were highly clustered in both seasons. About 13.0% of the total land area was suitable in both seasons, while summer-only and winter-only areas contributed a marginal addition of around 4.7% and 1.5%, respectively. This suggests, that unlike many continental and migratory Rangifer populations, even small geographic areas may encompass suffiscient suitable habitat. These first archipelago-wide habitat suitability models provide seasonal baseline maps relevant for the management and conservation of Svalbard reindeer, particularly under rapid environmental alterations from climate change.

Simple Summary: Assessing suitable habitats for species has great potential to guide the management and conservation of threatened species, especially rare species that are poorly studied and remote from human populations. Vormela peregusna, a mustelid mammal endemic to Eurasia, was assessed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 2015 due to its low population size and increasing human threats. We used the ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable areas for V. peregusna under current and future climate change conditions to contribute to the better protection of endangered animals. Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 104 km2, suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The responses of marine species to environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing) interact with ecological and evolutionary processes that are not well understood. Knowledge of changes in the distribution range and genetic diversity of species and their populations into the future is essential for the conservation and sustainable management of resources. Almaco jack (Seriola rivoliana) is a pelagic fish with high importance to fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific Ocean. In this study, we assessed contemporary genomic diversity and structure in loci that are putatively under selection (outlier loci) and determined their potential functions. Using a combination of genotype–environment association, spatial distribution models, and demogenetic simulations, we modeled the effects of climate change (under three different RCP scenarios) and fishing pressure on the species' geographic distribution and genomic diversity and structure to 2050 and 2100. Our results show that most of the outlier loci identified were related to biological and metabolic processes that may be associated with temperature and salinity. The contemporary genomic structure showed three populations—two in the Eastern Pacific (Cabo San Lucas and Eastern Pacific) and one in the Central Pacific (Hawaii). Future projections suggest a loss of suitable habitat and potential range contractions for most scenarios, while fishing pressure decreased population connectivity. Our results suggest that future climate change scenarios and fishing pressure will affect the genomic structure and genotypic composition of S. rivoliana and lead to loss of genomic diversity in populations distributed in the eastern‐central Pacific Ocean, which could have profound effects on fisheries that depend on this resource. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen is a major tree species with high economic and ecological value in the Greater Khingan Mountains coniferous forest of Northeast China. Reconstructing the priority Conservation Area of Larix gmelinii under Climate could provide a scientific basis for its germplasm conservation and management. The present study used ensemble and Marxan model simulations to predict species distribution areas and delineate priority conservation areas for Larix gmelinii in relation to productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics, and climate change impacts. The study revealed that the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Mountains, with an area of approximately 300 974.2 km², were the most suitable for L. gmelinii. The stand productivity of L. gmelinii in the most suitable area was significantly higher than that in the less suitable and marginally suitable areas, but understory plant diversity was not dominant. The increase in temperature under future climate change scenarios will reduce the potential distribution and area under L. gmelinii; the species will migrate to higher latitudes of the Greater Khingan Mountains, while the degree of niche migration will gradually increase. Under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the most suitable area for L. gmelinii will completely disappear, and the climate model niche will be completely separated. Therefore, the protected area of L. gmelinii was demarcated with a target of the productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics and climate change sensitive area, and the current key protected area was 8.38 × 104 km2. Overall, the study's findings will lay a foundation for the protection and rational development and utilization of cold temperate coniferous forests dominated by L. gmelinii in the northern forested region of the Greater Khingan Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive alien ant species pose serious threats to agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health in China. Solenopsis invicta Buren is the most destructive and aggressive invasive alien ant in China, causing serious agricultural and urban economic losses and public health concerns. Estimating its spatial distribution and ecological niche in China is crucial for S. invicta prevention and control. Based on 4195 occurrence records (4096 invasive occurrence records and 99 native occurrence records) and 10 environmental variables, we estimated the potential suitable area and ecological niche of S. invicta in China using the ensemble model and 'ecospat' package in R language. The mean AUC, KAPPA, and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.989, 0.901, and 0.901, respectively, indicating that the ensemble model was better than the single-species distribution model for the simulation. Temperature, precipitation, and human factors are important variables that influence the distribution of S. invicta. Our results showed that the ecological niche similarity and equivalency test results showed that the ecological niches between native areas and China were not equivalent (D = 0.46, p = 0.001), but were more similar than would be expected by chance (p = 0.003). Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable area for S. invicta is 192.89 × 104 km2 in China, accounting for 20.09% of the land area in China; this land is mainly distributed in Hainan, Taiwan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Henan. Under future climatic conditions, the potential suitable areas of S. invicta will further increase, while the highly suitable areas will shift to higher latitudes. We suggest that early warning and monitoring of S. invicta in the central and northern areas of China should be strengthened to prevent its further spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The François' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is an endangered primate living in limestone forests in Vietnam and China. From October 2017 to August 2018, the habitat preferences and the range of the Francois' langur were surveyed in the Mayanghe Nature Reserve, Guizhou, People's Republic of China. To estimate the range and predict suitable habitat of François' langur, a Gaussian normal kernel density estimation and species distribution models (BIOMOD2) were used along with data on environmental variables and records of the langur's occurrence. The total range of François' langur in the reserve is 68.76 km2, accounting for 22.1% of the total area of the reserve. The elevation of the main utilisation area is 500–800 m, accounting for 48.53% of the total area of the reserve. The maximum slope utilised is 20°–30°, 30.19 km2 and accounting for 30.56% of the total area. The habitat used is largely distributed along valleys, preferred broad leaf forest, lower elevation, and close to rivers. Broad leaf forest is the main habitat type utilised, totalling 25.57 km2 and accounting for 37.19% of the total area. Our models predicted that the suitable habitat in the reserve is 62.46 km2, accounting for 20.08% of the total reserve area, with 32.93-km2 suitable habitat occurring in the core zone, 22.44 km2 in the buffer zone, and 7.02 km2 in the experimental zone. Our results indicate that only limited suitable habitat (51%) adverse reserve zoning exists in the Mayanghe Nature Reserve of François' langur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]