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1. Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Author: Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Sebastian Lienert, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Steven W. Running, Naiqing Pan, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catherine Ottlé, Hao Shi, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Sönke Zaehle, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Shufen Pan, Auburn University (AU), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Montana State University (MSU), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Canopy, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, 0208 environmental biotechnology, 02 engineering and technology, lcsh:Technology, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:TD1-1066, Evapotranspiration, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, lcsh:GE1-350, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Physical model, lcsh:T, Water stress, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, 15. Life on land, Arid, Relative stability, 020801 environmental engineering, lcsh:G, 13. Climate action, Remote sensing (archaeology), Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Satellite
Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component in global water cycle and links terrestrial water, carbon and energy cycles. Accurate estimate of terrestrial ET is important for hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural research and applications, such as quantifying surface energy and water budgets, weather forecasting, and scheduling of irrigation. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first gave a retrospective introduction to the basic theory and recent developments of state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote sensing-based physical models, machine learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). Then, we utilized six remote sensing-based models (including four physical models and two machine learning algorithms) and fourteen LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the mean annual global terrestrial ET ranged from 50.7 × 103 km3 yr−1（454 mm yr−1）to 75.7 × 103 km3 yr−1 (6977 mm yr−1), with the average being 65.5 × 103 km3 yr−1 (588 mm yr−1), during 1982–2011. LSMs had significant uncertainty in the ET magnitude in tropical regions especially the Amazon Basin, while remote sensing-based ET products showed larger inter-model range in arid and semi-arid regions than LSMs. LSMs and remote sensing-based physical models presented much larger inter-annual variability (IAV) of ET than machine learning algorithms in southwestern U.S. and the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Australia. LSMs suggested stronger control of precipitation on ET IAV than remote sensing-based models. The ensemble remote sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithm suggested significant increasing trends in global terrestrial ET at the rate of 0.62 mm yr−2 (p 0.05), even though most of the individual LSMs reproduced the increasing trend. Moreover, all models suggested a positive effect of vegetation greening on ET intensification. Spatially, all methods showed that ET significantly increased in western and southern Africa, western India and northeastern Australia, but decreased severely in southwestern U.S., southern South America and Mongolia. Discrepancies in ET trend mainly appeared in tropical regions like the Amazon Basin. The ensemble means of the three ET categories showed generally good consistency, however, considerable uncertainties still exist in both the temporal and spatial variations in global ET estimates. The uncertainties were induced by multiple factors, including parameterization of land processes, meteorological forcing, lack of in situ measurements, remote sensing acquisition and scaling effects. Improvements in the representation of water stress and canopy dynamics are essentially needed to reduce uncertainty in LSM-simulated ET. Utilization of latest satellite sensors and deep learning methods, theoretical advancements in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and application of integrated methods that fuse different ET estimates or relevant key biophysical variables will improve the accuracy of remote sensing-based models.
Published: 2020

2. Global Carbon Budget 2019

Author: P. Friedlingstein, M. W. Jones, M. O'Sullivan, R. M. Andrew, J. Hauck, G. P. Peters, W. Peters, J. Pongratz, S. Sitch, C. Le Quéré, D. C. E. Bakker, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R. B. Jackson, P. Anthoni, L. Barbero, A. Bastos, V. Bastrikov, M. Becker, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, N. Chandra, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, K. I. Currie, R. A. Feely, M. Gehlen, D. Gilfillan, T. Gkritzalis, D. S. Goll, N. Gruber, S. Gutekunst, I. Harris, V. Haverd, R. A. Houghton, G. Hurtt, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Joetzjer, J. O. Kaplan, E. Kato, K. Klein Goldewijk, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, S. Lienert, D. Lombardozzi, G. Marland, P. C. McGuire, J. R. Melton, N. Metzl, D. R. Munro, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S.-I. Nakaoka, C. Neill, A. M. Omar, T. Ono, A. Peregon, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, L. Resplandy, E. Robertson, C. Rödenbeck, R. Séférian, J. Schwinger, N. Smith, P. P. Tans, H. Tian, B. Tilbrook, F. N. Tubiello, G. R. van der Werf, A. J. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), New Zealand Centre for Ecological Economics (NZCEE), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie] (DGE), Carnegie Institution for Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Geography [München], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Physical Research Laboratory [Ahmedabad] (PRL), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] (IGPP), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Montana State University (MSU), University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Princeton University, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Carnegie Institution for Science [Washington], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), University of California-University of California, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie Institution], College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ARVE, Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Isotope Research, Earth Sciences, and Amsterdam Sustainability Institute
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Computer science, information & general works, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, SURFACE-OCEAN, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ddc:910, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, FOSSIL-FUEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Carbon dioxide, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), chemistry.chemical_element, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Carbon cycle, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, Deforestation, Life Science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, LAND-COVER CHANGE, WIMEK, Land use, business.industry, Fossil fuel, LEAF-AREA INDEX, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL, TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES, chemistry, 13. Climate action, ddc:000, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, business, Carbon
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
Published: 2019

3. Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (trunk version, rev 4999):multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production

Author: N. Vuichard, P. Messina, S. Luyssaert, B. Guenet, S. Zaehle, J. Ghattas, V. Bastrikov, P. Peylin, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Systems Ecology, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Reactive nitrogen, Climate change, Accounting, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, FluxNet, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Nitrogen cycle, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Transpiration, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], business.industry, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Primary production, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, [CHIM.OTHE]Chemical Sciences/Other, business, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: Nitrogen is an essential element controlling ecosystem carbon (C) productivity and its response to climate change and atmospheric [CO2] increase. This study presents the evaluation – focussing on gross primary production (GPP) – of a new version of the ORCHIDEE model that gathers the representation of the nitrogen cycle and of its interactions with the carbon cycle from the OCN model and the most recent developments from the ORCHIDEE trunk version. We quantify the model skills at 78 FLUXNET sites by simulating the observed mean seasonal cycle, daily mean flux variations, and annual mean average GPP flux for grasslands and forests. Accounting for carbon–nitrogen interactions does not substantially change the main skills of ORCHIDEE, except for the site-to-site annual mean GPP variations, for which the version with carbon–nitrogen interactions is in better agreement with observations. However, the simulated GPP response to idealised [CO2] enrichment simulations is highly sensitive to whether or not carbon–nitrogen interactions are accounted for. Doubling of the atmospheric [CO2] induces an increase in the GPP, but the site-averaged GPP response to a CO2 increase projected by the model version with carbon–nitrogen interactions is half of the increase projected by the version without carbon–nitrogen interactions. This model's differentiated response has important consequences for the transpiration rate, which is on average 50 mm yr−1 lower with the version with carbon–nitrogen interactions. Simulated annual GPP for northern, tropical and southern latitudes shows good agreement with the observation-based MTE-GPP (model tree ensemble gross primary production) product for present-day conditions. An attribution experiment making use of this new version of ORCHIDEE for the time period 1860–2016 suggests that global GPP has increased by 50 %, the main driver being the enrichment of land in reactive nitrogen (through deposition and fertilisation), followed by the [CO2] increase. Based on our factorial experiment and sensitivity analysis, we conclude that if carbon–nitrogen interactions are accounted for, the functional responses of ORCHIDEE r4999 better agree with the current understanding of photosynthesis than when the carbon–nitrogen interactions are not accounted for and that carbon–nitrogen interactions are essential in understanding global terrestrial ecosystem productivity.
Published: 2019

4. Decadal biomass increment in early secondary succession woody ecosystems is increased by CO2 enrichment

Author: Edmund Ryan, Jianyang Xia, Shinichi Asao, Bruce A. Hungate, Belinda E. Medlyn, Alan F. Talhelm, Richard J. Norby, J. Patrick Megonigal, Atul K. Jain, K. A. Luus, Ram Oren, Martin G. De Kauwe, Colleen M. Iversen, Anna B. Harper, Ying-Ping Wang, Christian Werner, Thomas Hickler, Yiqi Luo, Bai Yang, Shijie Shu, Sönke Zaehle, Bertrand Guenet, Donald R. Zak, Jeffrey M. Warren, Xingjie Lu, Meng Lu, Anthony P. Walker, Department of Forest Sciences, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Hawkesbury Institute for he Environment, Western Sydney University, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Colorado Plateau Stable Isotope Laboratory, Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma (OU), Duke University, Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Department of Chemistry [Burnaby, Canada], Simon Fraser University (SFU.ca), Heidelberg University, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of Exeter
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, Secondary succession, TREE MORTALITY, Climate, General Physics and Astronomy, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, Trees, ddc:550, Biomass, Photosynthesis, lcsh:Science, Biomass (ecology), 4112 Forestry, Multidisciplinary, FOREST PRODUCTIVITY, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, woody, Wood, decadal biomass, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, GROWTH, Terrestrial ecosystem, 0210 nano-technology, Ecosystem ecology, ecosystems, CARBON ALLOCATION, Science, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Article, SWEETGUM PLANTATION, Carbon cycle, 03 medical and health sciences, Forest ecology, Ecosystem, Biochemistry, Biophysics, and Structural Biology, Primary production, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, Carbon Dioxide, NITROGEN, CLIMATE, 030104 developmental biology, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, ELEVATED CO2, SOIL CARBON, RESPONSES
Abstract: Increasing atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis which can increase net primary production (NPP), but at longer timescales may not necessarily increase plant biomass. Here we analyse the four decade-long CO2-enrichment experiments in woody ecosystems that measured total NPP and biomass. CO2 enrichment increased biomass increment by 1.05 ± 0.26 kg C m−2 over a full decade, a 29.1 ± 11.7% stimulation of biomass gain in these early-secondary-succession temperate ecosystems. This response is predictable by combining the CO2 response of NPP (0.16 ± 0.03 kg C m−2 y−1) and the CO2-independent, linear slope between biomass increment and cumulative NPP (0.55 ± 0.17). An ensemble of terrestrial ecosystem models fail to predict both terms correctly. Allocation to wood was a driver of across-site, and across-model, response variability and together with CO2-independence of biomass retention highlights the value of understanding drivers of wood allocation under ambient conditions to correctly interpret and predict CO2 responses., It is unclear whether CO2-stimulation of photosynthesis can propagate through slower ecosystem processes and lead to long-term increases in terrestrial carbon. Here the authors show that CO2-stimulation of photosynthesis leads to a 30% increase in forest regrowth over a decade of CO2 enrichment.
Published: 2019

5. Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

Author: Robert B. Jackson, Josep G. Canadell, Jinfeng Chang, Eric A. Davidson, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Almut Arneth, Rona Thompson, Stefan Olin, Shufen Pan, Bowen Zhang, Chaoqun Lu, Sönke Zaehle, Changhui Peng, Jia Yang, Stefan Gerber, Nicolas Vuichard, Sebastian Lienert, Palmira Messina, Fortunat Joos, Eri Saikawa, Wilfried Winiwarter, Hanqin Tian, Rongting Xu, Auburn University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), and Lund University [Lund]
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Time Factors, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Nitrous Oxide, Climate change, Land cover, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, chemistry.chemical_compound, Greenhouse Gases, Soil, Grazing, Environmental Chemistry, Industrial Development, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global and Planetary Change, Air Pollutants, Ecology, Uncertainty, Biosphere, Nitrous oxide, 15. Life on land, Models, Theoretical, Manure, Deposition (aerosol physics), chemistry, 13. Climate action, Soil water, Environmental science
Abstract: Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the pre-industrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15% and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.
Published: 2018

6. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

Author: Bastos, Ana, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Chen, Chi, Mialon, Arnaud, Wigneron, Jean-Pierre, Arora, Vivek, Briggs, Peter, Canadell, Josep, Ciais, Philippe, Chevallier, Frédéric, Cheng, Lei, Delire, Christine, Haverd, Vanessa, Jain, Atul, Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe, Myneni, Ranga, Nabel, Julia, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Séférian, Roland, Tian, Hanqin, van Eck, Christel, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony, Wiltshire, Andy, Yang, Jia, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Ning, Zhu, Dan, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, National University of Defense Technology [China], Centre d'Applications et de Recherches en TELédétection (CARTEL), Université de Sherbrooke [Sherbrooke], Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), University College Dublin [Dublin] (UCD), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Department of Earth and Environment, Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie Institution], Carnegie Institution for Science [Washington], Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Franche-Comté Électronique Mécanique, Thermique et Optique - Sciences et Technologies (UMR 6174) (FEMTO-ST), Université de Franche-Comté (UFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre d'Applications et de Recherches en TELédétection [Sherbrooke] (CARTEL), Département de géomatique appliquée [Sherbrooke] (UdeS), Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS)-Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie] (DGE), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), EC H2020 project CRESCENDO 641816, European Research Council (ERC) under European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (QUINCY) 647204, European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Carnegie Institution for Science, Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mécanique et des Microtechniques (ENSMM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), and Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)
Subjects: cycle du carbone, Carbon Sequestration, dessèchement, 530 Physics, atmospheric inversions, Medical and Health Sciences, Theoretical, El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Models, zone tropicale, phénomène climatique, carbon cycle, réchauffement climatique, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecosystem, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Evolutionary Biology, climat, Atmospheric inversions, Atmosphere, adaptation au stress, Articles, Carbon cycle, Biological Sciences, Models, Theoretical, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, évolution spatiotemporelle, Land-surface models, land-surface models, El Niño/Southern Oscillation, carbone du sol, Biologie, Research Article
Abstract: Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models’ response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr21 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr21 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2018

7. Global Carbon Budget 2017

Author: Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan D., Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank J., Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Heuven, Steven M. A. C., Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sönke, Zhu, Dan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder] (CSD), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Climatic Research Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, and Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan] (HUST)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract: International audience; Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Published: 2018

8. The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink

Author: Steven van Heuven, Christian Rödenbeck, Nicolas Metzl, Bronte Tilbrook, Nicolas Gruber, F. Alexander Haumann, Mario Hoppema, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Colm Sweeney, Taro Takahashi, Rik Wanninkhof, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Carbon sink, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Carbon sequestration, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, chemistry.chemical_compound, Oceanography, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, Thermohaline circulation, 14. Life underwater, Oceanic carbon cycle, Ocean heat content, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Uptake uptick Has global warming slowed the uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by the Southern Ocean? Landschützer et al. say no (see the Perspective by Fletcher). Previous work suggested that the strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink fell during the 1990s. This raised concerns that such a decline would exacerbate the rise of atmospheric CO 2 and thereby increase global surface air temperatures and ocean acidity. The newer data show that the Southern Ocean carbon sink strengthened again over the past decade, which illustrates the dynamic nature of the process and alleviates some of the anxiety about its earlier weakening trend. Science , this issue p. 1221 ; see also p. 1165
Published: 2015

9. Model–data synthesis for the next generation of forest free‐air <scp>CO</scp> 2 enrichment ( <scp>FACE</scp> ) experiments

Author: Xiaojuan Yang, Anthony P. Walker, Tomas F. Domingues, A. Rob MacKenzie, Benjamin Smith, Daniel S. Goll, Martin G. De Kauwe, Belinda E. Medlyn, Ryan Pavlick, Anja Rammig, David S. Ellsworth, Rick M. Thomas, David M. Lapola, Soenke Zaehle, Kirsten Thonicke, Richard J. Norby, K. A. Luus, Remko A. Duursma, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment [Richmond] (HIE), Western Sydney University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering [Victoria] (ECE Department), University of Victoria [Canada] (UVIC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Lund University [Lund], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Rainforest, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Physiology, Climate, Biome, Biodiversity, Plant Science, Subtropics, Forests, 01 natural sciences, Trees, Soil, Temperate climate, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Eucalyptus, Dehydration, Hemiboreal, Atmosphere, Agroforestry, Australia, Biosphere, Phosphorus, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, England, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Brazil, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The first generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space. These new experiments are: EucFACE in a mature Eucalyptus stand on highly weathered soil in subtropical Australia; AmazonFACE in a highly diverse, primary rainforest in Brazil; BIFoR-FACE in a 150-yr-old deciduous woodland stand in central England; and SwedFACE proposed in a hemiboreal, Pinus sylvestris stand in Sweden. We now have a unique opportunity to initiate a model-data interaction as an integral part of experimental design and to address a set of cross-site science questions on topics including responses of mature forests; interactions with temperature, water stress, and phosphorus limitation; and the influence of biodiversity.
Published: 2015

10. Global Carbon Budget 2016

Author: Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, Josep G. Canadell, Pieter P. Tans, Abdirahman M Omar, Thomas A. Boden, Leticia Barbero, Arne Körtzinger, Adrienne J. Sutton, Guido R. van der Werf, Frank J. Millero, Benjamin D. Stocker, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Louise Chini, Denis Pierrot, Scott C. Doney, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Andrew Lenton, Kim I. Currie, Nicolas Viovy, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Sönke Zaehle, Oliver Andrews, Philippe Ciais, Peter Landschützer, Ute Schuster, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Vanessa Haverd, Simone R. Alin, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Atul K. Jain, Nathalie Lefèvre, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Joe R. Melton, Mario Hoppema, Benjamin Poulter, Frédéric Chevallier, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Thanos Gkritzalis, Tsuneo Ono, Etsushi Kato, Andrew C. Manning, Roland Séférian, Danica Lombardozzi, Jörg Schwinger, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, David R. Munro, Corinne Le Quéré, Anthony P. Walker, Laurent Bopp, Peter Anthoni, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Sebastian Lienert, Are Olsen, Ralph F. Keeling, Nicolas Metzl, Robbie M. Andrew, Christine Delire, Joe Salisbury, Kees Klein Goldewijk, K. O'Brien, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Norwich] (COAS), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA)-University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, STMicroelectronics [Crolles] (ST-CROLLES), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Berkeley] (CEE), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, University of Wisconsin Whitewater, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Entrepôts, Représentation et Ingénierie des Connaissances (ERIC), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon, Max-Planck-Institut, Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory (OPAL), University of New Hampshire (UNH), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Imperial College London, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [Sagamihara] (JAXA), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Earth and Climate, University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego)
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Latitude, SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals, Deforestation, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, WIMEK, business.industry, Fossil fuel, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Sink (computing), 0210 nano-technology, business
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
Published: 2016

11. Greening of the Earth and its drivers

Author: Chunxiang Cao, Shushi Peng, Shilong Piao, Jiafu Mao, Yaozhong Pan, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Ying-Ping Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Xu Lian, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Zhenzhong Zeng, Philippe Ciais, Ranga B. Myneni, Ronggao Liu, Yongwen Liu, Ning Zeng, Zhiqiang Xiao, Almut Arneth, Benjamin D. Stocker, Josep Peñuelas, Sönke Zaehle, Yue Li, Etsushi Kato, Lei Cheng, Mengtian Huang, Pierre Friedlingstein, Xuhui Wang, Charles D. Koven, Benjamin Poulter, Hui Yang, Soochow University, Peking University [Beijing], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Princeton University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Environnement de Réseaux Autonomes (ERA), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD), Université de Technologie de Troyes (UTT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Technologie de Troyes (UTT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences [Beijing] (CAGS), Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR), Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CHUM), Université de Montréal (UdeM), Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Montana State University (MSU), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Environmental Systems Sciences [Zürich], Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Beijing Normal University (BNU), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Environmental change, Environmental Science and Management, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecosystem services, Greening, Deforestation, Ecosystem, Leaf area index, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Ecological modelling, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Agroforestry, Ecology, Climate-change ecology, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services(1,2). Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982-2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. The regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.
Published: 2016

12. Global Carbon Budget 2018

Author: C. Le Quéré, R. M. Andrew, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, J. Hauck, J. Pongratz, P. A. Pickers, J. I. Korsbakken, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell, A. Arneth, V. K. Arora, L. Barbero, A. Bastos, L. Bopp, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, T. Gkritzalis, D. S. Goll, I. Harris, V. Haverd, F. M. Hoffman, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, G. Hurtt, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, C. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. K. Goldewijk, P. Landschützer, N. Lefèvre, S. Lienert, Z. Liu, D. Lombardozzi, N. Metzl, D. R. Munro, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S.-I. Nakaoka, C. Neill, A. Olsen, T. Ono, P. Patra, A. Peregon, W. Peters, P. Peylin, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, L. Resplandy, E. Robertson, M. Rocher, C. Rödenbeck, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, I. Skjelvan, T. Steinhoff, A. Sutton, P. P. Tans, H. Tian, B. Tilbrook, F. N. Tubiello, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, A. P. Walker, A. J. Wiltshire, R. Wright, S. Zaehle, B. Zheng, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), New Zealand Centre for Ecological Economics (NZCEE), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie] (DGE), Carnegie Institution for Science [Washington], Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry (WHOI), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Centre for Studies in Advanced Learning Technology (CSALT), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Marine Research [Bergen] (IMR), University of Bergen (UiB), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Montana State University (MSU), Department of Geosciences [Princeton], Princeton University, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Carnegie Institution for Science, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Isotope Research, Earth Sciences, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, Climate change, chemistry.chemical_element, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, DATA ASSIMILATION, OCEAN, Deforestation, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, Energy statistics, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, LAND-COVER CHANGE, WIMEK, lcsh:QE1-996.5, LEAF-AREA INDEX, Biosphere, 15. Life on land, FLUX VARIABILITY, MODEL, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Carbon, FIRE EMISSIONS
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008-2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yrĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yrĝ'1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yrĝ'1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yrĝ'1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yrĝ'1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yrĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).
Published: 2018

13. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance

Author: Sönke Zaehle, Wolfgang Cramer, Wolfgang Lucht, Benjamin Smith, P. C. Smith, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller, Dieter Gerten, Markus Reichstein, Alberte Bondeau, Sibyll Schaphoff, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Domain Earth System Analysis, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] (LIX), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res IDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, and École polytechnique (X)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Land use, Carbon sink, Soil science, Soil carbon, 010501 environmental sciences, 15. Life on land, Dynamic global vegetation model, Atmospheric sciences, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Arable land, Water cycle, Surface runoff, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: In order to better assess the role of agriculture within the global climate-vegetation system, we present a model of the managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which simulates biophysical and biogeochemical processes as well as productivity and yield of the most important crops worldwide, using a concept of crop functional types (CFTs). Based on the LPJ-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, LPJmL simulates the transient changes in carbon and water cycles due to land use, the specific phenology and seasonal CO2 fluxes of agricultural-dominated areas, and the production of crops and grazing land. It uses 13 CFTs (11 arable crops and two managed grass types), with specific parameterizations of phenology connected to leaf area development. Carbon is allocated daily towards four carbon pools, one being the yield-bearing storage organs. Management (irrigation, treatment of residues, intercropping) can be considered in order to capture their effect on productivity, on soil organic carbon and on carbon extracted from the ecosystem. For transient simulations for the 20th century, a global historical land use data set was developed, providing the annual cover fraction of the 13 CFTs, rain-fed and/or irrigated, within 0.5 degrees grid cells for the period 1901-2000, using published data on land use, crop distributions and irrigated areas. Several key results are compared with observations. The simulated spatial distribution of sowing dates for temperate cereals is comparable with the reported crop calendars. The simulated seasonal canopy development agrees better with satellite observations when actual cropland distribution is taken into account. Simulated yields for temperate cereals and maize compare well with FAO statistics. Monthly carbon fluxes measured at three agricultural sites also compare well with simulations. Global simulations indicate a similar to 24% (respectively similar to 10%) reduction in global vegetation (respectively soil) carbon due to agriculture, and 6-9 Pg C of yearly harvested biomass in the 1990s. In contrast to simulations of the potential natural vegetation showing the land biosphere to be an increasing carbon sink during the 20th century, LPJmL simulates a net carbon source until the 1970s (due to land use), and a small sink (mostly due to changing climate and CO2) after 1970. This is comparable with earlier LPJ simulations using a more simple land use scheme, and within the uncertainty range of estimates in the 1980s and 1990s. The fluxes attributed to land use change compare well with Houghton's estimates on the land use related fluxes until the 1970s, but then they begin to diverge, probably due to the different rates of deforestation considered. The simulated impacts of agriculture on the global water cycle for the 1990s are similar to 5% (respectively similar to 20%) reduction in transpiration (respectively interception), and similar to 44% increase in evaporation. Global runoff, which includes a simple irrigation scheme, is practically not affected. (Less)
Published: 2007

14. Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO 2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

Author: Peng , Shushi, Ciais , Philippe, Chevallier , Frédéric, Peylin , Philippe, Cadule , Patricia, Sitch , Stephen, Piao , Shilong, Ahlström , Anders, Huntingford , Chris, Levy , Peter, Li , Xiran, Liu , Yongwen, Lomas , Mark, Poulter , Benjamin, Viovy , Nicolas, Wang , Tao, Wang , Xuhui, Zaehle , Sönke, Zeng , Ning, Zhao , Fang, Zhao , Hongfang, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), University of Exeter, Lund University [Lund], Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Montana State University (MSU), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), CEA, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Gyf Sur Yvette, France, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace ( IPSL ), École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales ( CNES ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] ( CEH ), Natural Environment Research Council ( NERC ), Loughborough University (UNITED KINGDOM), Loughborough University, Montana State University ( MSU ), Laboratoire d'Informatique pour l'Entreprise et les Systèmes de Production ( LIESP ), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 ( UL2 ) -École Centrale de Lyon ( ECL ), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( UCBL ), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon ( INSA Lyon ), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ) -Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ), Department for Biogeochemical System, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience; We evaluated the seasonality of CO 2 fluxes simulated by nine terrestrial ecosystem models of the TRENDY project against (1) the seasonal cycle of gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at flux tower sites over different biomes, (2) gridded monthly Model Tree Ensembles-estimated GPP (MTE-GPP) and MTE-NEE obtained by interpolating many flux tower measurements with a machine-learning algorithm, (3) atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction measurements at surface sites, and (4) CO 2 total columns (X CO2) measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). For comparison with atmospheric CO 2 measurements, the LMDZ4 transport model was run with time-varying CO 2 fluxes of each model as surface boundary conditions. Seven out of the nine models overestimate the seasonal amplitude of GPP and produce a too early start in spring at most flux sites. Despite their positive bias for GPP, the nine models underestimate NEE at most flux sites and in the Northern Hemisphere compared with MTE-NEE. Comparison with surface atmospheric CO 2 measurements confirms that most models underestimate the seasonal amplitude of NEE in the Northern Hemisphere (except CLM4C and SDGVM). Comparison with TCCON data also shows that the seasonal amplitude of X CO2 is underestimated by more than 10% for seven out of the nine models (except for CLM4C and SDGVM) and that the MTE-NEE product is closer to the TCCON data using LMDZ4. From CO 2 columns measured routinely at 10 TCCON sites, the constrained amplitude of NEE over the Northern Hemisphere is of 1.6 ± 0.4 gC m À2 d À1 , which translates into a net CO 2 uptake during the carbon uptake period in the Northern Hemisphere of 7.9 ± 2.0 PgC yr À1 .
Published: 2015

15. The European land and inland water CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balance between 2001 and 2005

Author: Luyssaert, S., Abril, G., Andres, R., Bastviken, D., Bellassen, V., Bergamaschi, P., Bousquet, P., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Corazza, M., Dechow, R., Erb, K.H., Etiope, G., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Grassi, G., Hartmann, J., Jung, M., Lathiere, J., Lohila, A., Mayorga, E., Moosdorf, N., Njakou, D.S., Otto, J., Papale, D., Peters, W., Peylin, P., Raymond, P., Rodenbeck, C., Saarnio, S., Schulze, E.D., Szopa, S., Thompson, R., Verkerk, P.J., Vuichard, N., Wang, R., Wattenbach, M., Zaehle, S., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Linköping University (LIU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institut, Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt [Klagenfurt, Austria], Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, University of Hamburg, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Applied Physics Laboratory [Seattle] (APL-UW), University of Washington [Seattle], University of Antwerp (UA), Department for Innovation in Biological Agrofood and Forest Systems (DiBAF), Tuscia University, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Yale University [New Haven], Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), University of Eastern Finland, University of Joensuu, MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes (LESP), Peking University [Beijing], German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam (GFZ), The publication of this article is financed by CNRS-INSU, European Project: 242564,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2009-StG,DOFOCO(2010), European Project: 212196,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2007-1,COCOS(2008), European Project: 263522,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2010-StG_20091209,LUISE(2010), European Project: 244122,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2009-1,GHG EUROPE(2010), European Project: 233366,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2008-AdG,POPFULL(2009), Université de Bordeaux (UB), Environmental Sciences Division [Oak Ridge], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, The Department of Thematic Studies - Water and Environmental Studies, Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institute for Agricultural Climate Research, Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Institute for Biogeochemistry and Marine Chemistry, Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Climate and Global Change Research [Helsinki], Researchgroup Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Department for innovation in biological, agro-food and forest systems (DIBAF), Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen] (MAQ), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Biology and Finnish Environment Institute, Department Biogeochemical Processes [Jena], Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Sustainability and Climate Change Program, European Forest Institute = Institut Européen de la Forêt = Euroopan metsäinstituutti (EFI), Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Tuscia, Systems Ecology, and Hydrology and Geo-environmental sciences
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, nitrous-oxide, Meteorology and Air Quality, net ecosystem exchange, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, lcsh:Life, échange atmosphérique, précision des estimations, organic-carbon changes, dioxide, dioxyde de carbone, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Naturvetenskap, gaz à effet de serre, méthane, Milieux et Changements globaux, Laboratorium voor Nematologie, SDG 15 - Life on Land, monoxyde de carbone, écosystème terrestre, changement climatique, atmospheric co2, WIMEK, protoxyde d'azote, lcsh:QE1-996.5, écosystème marin, emissions, fluxes, north-atlantic oscillation, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, séquestration du carbone, terrestrial biosphere, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, climate-change, lcsh:Ecology, Laboratory of Nematology, europe, Natural Sciences
Abstract: Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2000–2007 and inter-hemispheric gradients indicate that a significant fraction of terrestrial carbon sequestration must be north of the Equator. We present a compilation of the CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balances of Europe following a dual constraint approach in which (1) a landbased balance derived mainly from ecosystem carbon inventories and (2) a land-based balance derived from flux measurements are compared to (3) the atmospheric data-based balance derived from inversions constrained by measurements of atmospheric GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations. Good agreement between the GHG balances based on fluxes (1294±545 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1), inventories (1299±200 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) and inversions (1210±405 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) increases our confidence that the processes underlying the European GHG budget are well understood and reasonably sampled. However, the uncertainty remains large and largely lacks formal estimates. Given that European net land to atmosphere exchanges are determined by a few dominant fluxes, the uncertainty of these key components needs to be formally estimated before efforts could be made to reduce the overall uncertainty. The net land-to-atmosphere flux is a net source for CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O, because the anthropogenic emissions by far exceed the biogenic sink strength. The dual-constraint approach confirmed that the European biogenic sink removes as much as 205±72 Tg C yr−1 from fossil fuel burning from the atmosphere. However, This C is being sequestered in both terrestrial and inland aquatic ecosystems. If the C-cost for ecosystem management is taken into account, the net uptake of ecosystems is estimated to decrease by 45% but still indicates substantial C-sequestration. However, when the balance is extended from CO2 towards the main GHGs, C-uptake by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is offset by emissions of non-CO2 GHGs. As such, the European ecosystems are unlikely to contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change., JRC.H.2-Air and Climate
Published: 2012

16. Semi-empirical modeling of abiotic and biotic factors controlling ecosystem respiration across eddy covariance sites

Author: Migliavacca, M., Reichstein, M., Richardson, A.D., Colombo, R., Sutton, M.A., Lasslop, E., Tomelleri, E., Wohlfahrt, G., Carvalhais, N., Cescatti, A., Mahecha, D., Montagnani, L., Papale, D., Zaehle, S., Arain, A., Arneth, A., Black, T.A., Carrara, A., Dore, S., Gianelle, D., Helfter, C., Hollinger, D., Kutsch, W.L., Lafleur, P.M., Nouvellon, Y., Rebmann, C., Da Rocha, H.R., Rodeghiero, M., Roupsard, O., Sebastià, M.-T., Seufert, G., Soussana, J.-F., van der Molen, M.K., Remote Sensing of Environmental Dynamics, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology [Cambridge] (OEB), Harvard University [Cambridge], Edinburgh Research Station, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia (FCT NOVA), Universidade Nova de Lisboa (NOVA), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Department of Environmental Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Servizi Forestali, Provincia Autonoma di Bolzano, Agenzia per l'Ambiente, DISAFRI, University of Tuscia, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], School of Geography & Earth Sciences, McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario], Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia (UBC), School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], Centro di Ecologia Alpina, Fondazione Edmund Mach - Edmund Mach Foundation [Italie] (FEM), NE Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Institut für Agrarrelevante Klimaforschung, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institut, College of Forestry [Corvallis], Oregon State University (OSU), 20- Department of Geography, Trent University, Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Department Biogeochemical Processes [Jena], Micrometeorology Group [Bayreuth], Universität Bayreuth, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [São Paulo], University of São Paulo (USP), CATIE, Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza, Agronomical Engineering School, Universitat de Lleida, Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Botany, Forest Technology Centre of Catalonia, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences [Amsterdam], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca [Milano] (UNIMIB), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia = School of Science & Technology (FCT NOVA), Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon (NOVA), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza - Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Centre de Ciència i Tecnologia Forestal de Catalunya (CTFC), CarboEuropeIP, FAO-GTOS-TCO, iLEAPS, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, National Science Foundation, US Department of Energy, Model-Data Integration Group of the Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Migliavacca, M, Reichstein, M, Richardson, A, Colombo, R, Sutton, M, Lasslop, G, Tomelleri, E, Wohlfahrt, G, Carvalhais, N, Cescatti, A, Mahecha, M, Montagnani, L, Papale, D, Zaehle, S, Arain, A, Arneth, A, Black, T, Carrara, A, Dore, S, Gianelle, D, Helfter, C, Hollinger, D, Kutsch, W, Lafleur, P, Nouvellon, Y, Rebmann, C, Humberto, R, Rodeghiero, M, Roupsard, O, Sebastià, M, Seufert, G, Soussana, J, Michiel, K, and Hydrology and Geo-environmental sciences
Subjects: Ecosystem respiration, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], FLUXNET, Eddy covariance, Facteur climatique, Prairie, Productivité, Savane, Productivity, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Respiration, Indice de surface foliaire, 000 - Autres thèmes, Life Sciences, Leaf area index, Forêt, Écosystème, Zone tropicale, P33 - Chimie et physique du sol, Carbone, F40 - Écologie végétale, Matière organique du sol, Zone tempérée, Zone froide, Settore BIO/07 - ECOLOGIA, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Modélisation environnementale, Changement climatique, technology, industry, and agriculture, Zone méditerranéenne, Inverse modeling, GEO/10 - GEOFISICA DELLA TERRA SOLIDA
Abstract: In this study we examined ecosystem respiration (RECO) data from 104 sites belonging to FLUXNET, the global network of eddy covariance flux measurements. The goal was to identify the main factors involved in the variability of RECO: temporally and between sites as affected by climate, vegetation structure and plant functional type (PFT) (evergreen needleleaf, grasslands, etc.). We demonstrated that a model using only climate drivers as predictors of RECO failed to describe part of the temporal variability in the data and that the dependency on gross primary production (GPP) needed to be included as an additional driver of RECO. The maximum seasonal leaf area index (LAIMAX) had an additional effect that explained the spatial variability of reference respiration (the respiration at reference temperature Tref=15°C, without stimulation introduced by photosynthetic activity and without water limitations), with a statistically significant linear relationship (r2=0.52, p70% of the variance for most vegetation types. Exceptions include tropical and Mediterranean broadleaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. Part of the variability in respiration that could not be described by our model may be attributed to a series of factors, including phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests and management practices in grasslands and croplands., JRC.H.2-Air and Climate
Published: 2010

17. Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Author: Wolfgang Cramer, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Fred F. Hattermann, Stephen Sitch, Ed Hawkins, Benjamin Poulter, Ursula Heyder, Sönke Zaehle, Institute on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology [Bozeman], Montana State University ( MSU ), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading ( UOR ), Department for Biogeochemical System, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, University of Technology Sydney ( UTS ), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale ( IMBE ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Montana State University (MSU), University of Reading (UOR), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Exeter, and Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Ecosystem model, Climate change scenario, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Hydrology, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, photosynthesis, Ecology, vegetation dynamics, variance partitioning, 15. Life on land, Dynamic global vegetation model, Forest dieback, climate change, Latin hypercube, 13. Climate action, Climatology, water-use, Environmental science, forest dieback, Climate model, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Published: 2010

18. Moderating the impact of agriculture on climate

Author: Bernard Seguin, Jérôme Balesdent, P. C. Smith, Alberte Bondeau, Nicolas Viovy, Nathalie de Noblet, Sönke Zaehle, Dominique Arrouays, Jean-François Soussana, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), InfoSol (InfoSol), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Collège de Direction (CODIR), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Unité de recherche Géochimie des Sols et des Eaux (URGSE), UR 0874 Unité de recherche Agronomie de Clermont, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Environnement et Agronomie (E.A.)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche Agronomie de Clermont (URAC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Centre des Faibles Radioactivités, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), INRA, Mission Changement climatique et effet de serre, unité Agroclim, Unité INFOSOL (ORLEANS INFOSOL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UAR 0233 Collège de Direction, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Direction Collégiale (DCOLL)-Collège de Direction (CODIR), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Unité de recherche Agronomie de Clermont (URAC)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, AGRICULTURE, Natural resource economics, METEOROLOGIE, modèle, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, bilan énergétique, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, gaz à effet de serre, méthane, Water cycle, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, énergie, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, FIELD SCALED, Forestry, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, GEOCHIMIE, Scale (social sciences), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, GREENHOUSE GASES, cycle du carbone, effet de serre, dioxyde de carbone, FARM SCALE, Production (economics), WATER CYCLE, CLIMATE, GLOBAL SCALE, ENERGY BALANCE, CARBON CYCLE, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hydrology, oxyde nitreux, climat, Land use, business.industry, Global warming, 15. Life on land, émission, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Greenhouse gas, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, Spatial ecology, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, business, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract: International audience; Many options are available for reducing the impact of agriculture on climate; however, it is difficult to provide a comprehensive set of solutions because several aspects are still poorly understood. An overall assessment of the various impacts of agriculture on climate is presented. It focuses on the trade-offs among the relevant greenhouse gases (GHG), CO2, N2O and CH4, and the geochemical and biophysical interactions between agriculture and climate. Three spatial scales are examined: field, farm, and regional scale. At the field level, both GHG and energy fluxes are related to technical decisions by the farmer. At the farm level, strategic decisions on the choice of production systems are governed by economical constraints. Land use and landscape govern the biophysical factors that act on the regional climate when spatially integrated. At the regional level, national and regional policies on GHG emissions and surface forcing influence global climate. The biochemical and geophysical contribution of agriculture to climate need to be considered using new approaches in terms of global warming. The use of GCMs appears to be an adequate tool at this scale for assessing the global effect on climate, upon which smaller-scale effects will be superimposed.
Published: 2007

19. Effects of changes in CO2, climate, and land use on the carbon balance of the land biosphere during the 21st century

Author: Wolfgang Lucht, Alberte Bondeau, Christoph Müller, Bas Eickhout, Sönke Zaehle, Wolfgang Cramer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), and Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Biosphere model, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Aquatic Science, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, Geochemistry and Petrology, Deforestation, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Land use, land-use change and forestry, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, Hydrology, Climate pattern, Ecology, Global warming, Paleontology, Biosphere, Forestry, 15. Life on land, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: [1] We studied the effects of climate and land-use change on the global terrestrial carbon cycle for the 21st century. Using the process-based land biosphere model (LPJmL), we mechanistically simulated carbon dynamics for natural and managed lands (agriculture and forestry) and for land-use change processes. We ran LPJmL with twelve different dynamic land-use patterns and corresponding climate and atmospheric CO2 projections. These input data were supplied from the IMAGE 2.2 implementations of the IPCC-SRES storylines for the A2, B1, and B2 scenarios. Each of these SRES scenarios was implemented under four different assumptions on spatial climate patterns in IMAGE 2.2, resulting in twelve different Earth System projections. Our selection of SRES scenarios comprises deforestation and afforestation scenarios, bounding a broad range of possible land-use change. Projected land-use change under different socio-economic scenarios has profound effects on the terrestrial carbon balance: While climate change and CO2 fertilization cause an additional terrestrial carbon uptake of 105–225 PgC, land-use change causes terrestrial carbon losses of up to 445 PgC by 2100, dominating the terrestrial carbon balance under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Our results imply that the potential positive feedback of the terrestrial biosphere on anthropogenic climate change will be strongly affected by land-use change. Spatiotemporally explicit projections of land-use change and the effects of land management on terrestrial carbon dynamics need additional attention in future research.
Published: 2007

20. Contemporary 'green' water flows : simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model

Author: Dieter Gerten, P. C. Smith, Holger Hoff, Sönke Zaehle, Wolfgang Lucht, Alberte Bondeau, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU)
Subjects: Hydrology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, 6. Clean water, Canopy conductance, Water balance, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Geochemistry and Petrology, Ecohydrology, Evapotranspiration, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Rainfed agriculture, Institut für Geowissenschaften, 020701 environmental engineering, Water content, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Transpiration
Abstract: "Green water"-the water stored in the soil and productively used for plant transpiration-is an important quantity particularly in rainfed agriculture (in contrast to "blue water" available in streams and lakes, on which irrigation relies). This study provides preliminary estimates of contemporary (1961-1990) global green water flows (i.e. plant transpiration), using a well-established, process-based dynamic global vegetation and water balance model, LPJ. Transpiration is analysed with respect to differences between a simulation that accounts for human land cover changes and a simulation under conditions of potential natural vegetation. We found that historic land cover change usually reduced the green water flow to the atmosphere, resulting in a global decrease of similar to 7% in total. To further explore how the biophysical setting influences the green water flow, we analyse the ratio between soil moisture-limited canopy conductance of carbon and water and energy-controlled potential conductance. This plant physiology-based ratio measures the degree to which actual green water flow falls below the potential flow that would occur when the soil is saturated, thus it represents a measure of the water limitation of terrestrial vegetation. We found that plant water limitation is lowest in the wet tropics and at high latitudes, where soil moisture is high enough to meet the atmospheric demand for transpiration. The present results are preliminary, since irrigation is not yet accounted for, and because the model simulations are compromised primarily by the quality of the input data. A more comprehensive and consistent assessment of global green and blue water flows and limitations using an enhanced LPJ model is identified as a prime task for future studies. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Published: 2005

21. TransCom 3 CO$_2$ inversion intercomparison: 1. Annual mean control results and sensitivity to transport and prior flux information

Author: Lori Bruhwiler, Bernard Pak, Philippe Bousquet, Manuel Gloor, Philippe Ciais, Takashi Maki, Taro Takahashi, Eva Kowalczyk, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Peter Rayner, S. Taguchi, David Baker, A. Scott Denning, Inez Fung, Michael J. Prather, Kaz Higuchi, Yu Han Chen, Philippe Peylin, Song-Miao Fan, Martin Heimann, Kevin R. Gurney, Jasmin John, Shamil Maksyutov, Rachel M. Law, Chiu Wai Yuen, Department of Atmospheric Science [Fort Collins], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [Aspendale], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences [MIT, Cambridge] (EAPS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Biogéochimie et écologie des milieux continentaux (Bioemco), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Department of Physics [Tokyo], Gakushuin University, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of California [Berkeley], University of California, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of California [Irvine] (UCI)
Subjects: Convection, atmospheric chemistry, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, atmospheric transport, Cumulus Parameterization, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Sinks, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Flux (metallurgy), Tracer, TRACER, Boundary-Layer, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Atmospheric Co2, 14. Life underwater, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General-Circulation Model, source-sink dynamics, carbon dioxide, Biosphere, Inversion (meteorology), Scale, Surface, 13. Climate action, Atmospheric chemistry, Environmental science, Spatial variability, Maxima, Simulation
Abstract: Spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations contain information about surface sources and sinks, which can be quantitatively interpreted through tracer transport inversion. Previous CO2 inversion calculations obtained differing results due to different data, methods and transport models used. To isolate the sources of uncertainty, we have conducted a set of annual mean inversion experiments in which 17 different transport models or model variants were used to calculate regional carbon sources and sinks from the same data with a standardized method. Simulated transport is a significant source of uncertainty in these calculations, particularly in the response to prescribed “background” fluxes due to fossil fuel combustion, a balanced terrestrial biosphere, and air–sea gas exchange. Individual model-estimated fluxes are often a direct reflection of their response to these background fluxes. Models that generate strong surface maxima near background exchange locations tend to require larger uptake near those locations. Models with weak surface maxima tend to have less uptake in those same regions but may infer small sources downwind. In some cases, individual model flux estimates cannot be analyzed through simple relationships to background flux responses but are likely due to local transport differences or particular responses at individual CO2 observing locations. The response to the background biosphere exchange generates the greatest variation in the estimated fluxes, particularly over land in the Northern Hemisphere. More observational data in the tropical regions may help in both lowering the uncertain tropical land flux uncertainties and constraining the northern land estimates because of compensation between these two broad regions in the inversion. More optimistically, examination of the model-mean retrieved fluxes indicates a general insensitivity to the prior fluxes and the prior flux uncertainties. Less uptake in the Southern Ocean than implied by oceanographic observations, and an evenly distributed northern land sink, remain in spite of changes in this aspect of the inversion setup.]DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.00049.x
Published: 2003

22. The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project

Author: Josep G. Canadell, Stefan Gerber, Nicolas Vuichard, Sebastian Lienert, Eri Saikawa, Kerou Zhang, Chaoqun Lu, Changhui Peng, Fortunat Joos, Sönke Zaehle, Robert B. Jackson, Rongting Xu, Almut Arneth, Bowen Zhang, Qiuan Zhu, Jia Yang, Jinfeng Chang, Rona Thompson, Yuanyuan Huang, Shufen Pan, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Hanqin Tian, Wilfried Winiwarter, Guangsheng Chen, Palmira Messina, Stefan Olin, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Auburn University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Northeast Forestry University (NEFU), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University [Lund], Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Northwest A and F University, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Northeast Forestry University, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], and Lund University
Subjects: Estimation, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biosphere, 15. Life on land, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Scale (map), Cycling, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N2O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N2O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N2O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N2O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N2O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative.
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23. Etsushi Kato 29 , Markus Kautz 30 , Ralph F. Keeling 31

Author: Nicolas Vuichard, Markus Kautz, Atul K. Jain, Richard A. Houghton, Anthony P. Walker, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, Christopher W. Hunt, Nicolas Metzl, Andy Wiltshire, Dan Zhu, Sebastian Lienert, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Benjamin Poulter, Judith Hauck, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Benjamin D. Stocker, Thomas Gasser, Ralph F. Keeling, Vivek K. Arora, Etsushi Kato, Gregor Rehder, Andrew C. Manning, X. Antonio Padin, Ivan D. Lima, Andrew Lenton, Steven van Heuven, Jessica N. Cross, Leticia Barbero, Robbie M. Andrew, Nathalie Lefèvre, Denis Pierrot, Roland Séférian, Yukihiro Nojiri, Ingunn Skjelvan, Meike Becker, Guido R. van der Werf, George C. Hurtt, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Ian Harris, Pieter P. Tans, Robert B. Jackson, Andrew J. Watson, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas A. Boden, Arne Körtzinger, Frank J. Millero, Benjamin Pfeil, Oliver Andrews, Corinne Le Quéré, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Catherine E Cosca, Vanessa Haverd, Richard Betts, Josep G. Canadell, Janet J. Reimer, Louise Chini, Kim I. Currie, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, Julia Pongratz, David R. Munro, Danica Lombardozzi, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Sönke Zaehle, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder] (CSD), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Climatic Research Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan] (HUST), Environmental Sciences, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Epidemiology, Earth science, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION, chemistry.chemical_compound, 11. Sustainability, ddc:550, Energy statistics, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, VEGETATION MODEL, Biosphere, Carbon dioxide, Meteorology and Air Quality, Bioinformatica & Diermodellen, 530 Physics, MIXED-LAYER SCHEME, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), chemistry.chemical_element, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], INTERNATIONAL-TRADE, 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, Deforestation, Bio-informatics & Animal models, Life Science, Epidemiology, Bio-informatics & Animal models, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Epidemiologie, LAND-COVER CHANGE, WIMEK, business.industry, Fossil fuel, 15. Life on land, Earth system science, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Epidemiologie, Bioinformatica & Diermodellen, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Physical geography, Sink (computing), business, Carbon
Abstract: 44 pages, 9 tables, 9 figures.-- Corinne Le Quéré ... et al.-- This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License, Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017)
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24. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances

Author: Markus Erhard, Wolfgang Cramer, Jari Liski, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Smith, Thomas Hickler, Sönke Zaehle, I. Colin Prentice, Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Macquarie University, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] (LIX), École polytechnique (X)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and University of Exeter
Subjects: Biosphere model, Biomass (ecology), Forest inventory, Time Factors, Ecology, Forest management, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Carbon sequestration, Models, Biological, Carbon, Trees, Europe, Productivity (ecology), 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Biomass, Mean radiant temperature, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Ecosystem, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience; We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

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24 results on '"Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena]"'

1. Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

2. Global Carbon Budget 2019

3. Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE (trunk version, rev 4999):multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production

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5. Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty

6. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

7. Global Carbon Budget 2017

8. The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink

9. Model–data synthesis for the next generation of forest free‐air <scp>CO</scp> 2 enrichment ( <scp>FACE</scp> ) experiments

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11. Greening of the Earth and its drivers

12. Global Carbon Budget 2018

13. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance

14. Benchmarking the seasonal cycle of CO 2 fluxes simulated by terrestrial ecosystem models

15. The European land and inland water CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balance between 2001 and 2005

16. Semi-empirical modeling of abiotic and biotic factors controlling ecosystem respiration across eddy covariance sites

17. Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

18. Moderating the impact of agriculture on climate

19. Effects of changes in CO2, climate, and land use on the carbon balance of the land biosphere during the 21st century

20. Contemporary 'green' water flows : simulations with a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model

21. TransCom 3 CO$_2$ inversion intercomparison: 1. Annual mean control results and sensitivity to transport and prior flux information

22. The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project

23. Etsushi Kato 29 , Markus Kautz 30 , Ralph F. Keeling 31

24. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances

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