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This study presents a systematic and global investigation of the characteristics and impacts of warm conveyor belts (WCBs). For this purpose, we compile a new WCB climatology (1980–2022) of trajectories calculated with the most recent reanalysis dataset ERA5 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Based on this new climatology, two-dimensional masks are defined, which represent the inflow, ascent and outflow locations of WCBs. These masks are then used to objectively quantify the key characteristics (intensity, ascent rate, and ascent curvature) and impacts (precipitation and potential vorticity (PV) anomalies) of WCBs in order to (i) attribute them to different stages in the life cycle of the associated cyclones and to (ii) evaluate differences in the outflow of the cyclonic and anticyclonic branches. The method is first tested and illustrated through three case studies of well-documented cyclones, revealing both the similarities and the case-to-case variability in the evolution of the WCB characteristics and impacts. We then extend the analysis to about 5'000 cyclones that occurred in winter between 1980–2022 in the North Atlantic. The case studies and the climatological analysis both show that WCBs are typically most intense (in terms of air mass transported, ascent rate, precipitation rate, and volume) during the intensification period of the associated cyclone. The northward displacement along the storm track and diabatic PV production lead to an increase in low-level PV in the region of WCB ascent during the cyclone life cycle. The negative PV anomaly at upper levels, associated with the WCB outflow, remains relatively constant. The investigation of the WCB branches reveals an increasing intensity of the cyclonic WCB branch with time, linked to the increasing strength of the cyclonic wind field around the cyclone. Due to a lower altitude, the outflow of the cyclonic branch is associated with a weaker negative PV anomaly than the anticyclonic WCB branch, which ascends to higher altitudes. In summary, this study highlights the distinct evolution of WCB characteristics and impacts during the cyclone life cycle and the marked differences between the cyclonic and anticyclonic branches.

The representation of a high-impact weather (HIW) event over southern France is evaluated in Meteo-France forecasts, and the sensitivity of the HIW forecast to the upstream upper-level flow and the Mediterranean and North Atlantic humidity structure prior to the event is quantified. The event occurred in October 2016 during the international field experiment NAWDEX. The approach of an upper-level potential vorticity (PV) cut-off, referred to as cut-off Sanchez, triggered extreme precipitation over southern France. Many 2- to 7-day ensemble forecasts predicted the maximum of the extreme precipitation and the location of the upper-level PV cut-off too far to the east. This eastward shift primarily resulted from an underestimation of the cut-off intensity two days before the HIW and the subsequent downstream propagation and amplification of these errors in the vicinity of Sanchez. Improving the representation of the cut-off two days before the event significantly improved the forecast quality. Another error source were inaccuracies in the moisture structure in the eastern North Atlantic. Specifically, an underestimation of the moisture in the warm conveyor belt inflow led to errors in the low- and upper-level circulation that eventually contributed to the eastward shift of the HIW two days later. Corrections in the eastern North Atlantic humidity structure further improved the forecast quality. On the other hand, corrections in the Mediterranean humidity structure had only a small impact on the accuracy of the forecast. The findings illustrate the importance of downstream error propagation and moist diabatic processes for the prediction of extreme weather over Europe, and demonstrate how targeted changes in the PV and humidity field a few days in advance can improve the quality of the forecasts., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (739), ISSN:0035-9009, ISSN:1477-870X

promet – Meteorologische Fortbildungszeitschrift, 103, ISBN:978-3-88148-521-0, ISBN:978-3-88148-522-7

Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (23), ISSN:0094-8276, ISSN:1944-8007

In June 2013, central Europe was hit by a century flood affecting the Danube and Elbe catchments after a 4 day period of heavy precipitation and causing severe human and economic loss. In this study model analysis and observational data are investigated to reveal the key atmospheric processes that caused the heavy precipitation event. The period preceding the flood was characterised by a weather regime associated with cool and unusual wet conditions resulting from repeated Rossby wave breaking (RWB). During the event a single RWB established a reversed baroclinicity in the low to mid-troposphere in central Europe with cool air trapped over the Alps and warmer air to the north. The upper-level cut-off resulting from the RWB instigated three consecutive cyclones in eastern Europe that unusually tracked westward during the days of heavy precipitation. Continuous large-scale slantwise ascent in so-called "equatorward ascending" warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with these cyclones is found as the key process that caused the 4 day heavy precipitation period. Fed by moisture sources from continental evapotranspiration, these WCBs unusually ascended equatorward along the southward sloping moist isentropes. Although "equatorward ascending" WCBs are climatologically rare events, they have great potential for causing high impact weather., Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14 (7), ISSN:1561-8633, ISSN:1684-9981

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important cyclone-related airstreams that are responsible for most of the cloud and precipitation formation in the extratropics. They can also substantially influence the dynamics of cyclones and the upper-level flow. So far, most of the knowledge about WCBs is based on model data from analyses, reanalyses and forecast data with only a few observational studies available. The aim of this work is to gain a detailed observational perspective on the vertical cloud and precipitation structure of WCBs during their inflow, ascent and outflow and to evaluate their representation in the new ERA5 reanalysis dataset. To this end, satellite observations from the CloudSat radar and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar are combined with an ERA5-based WCB climatology for nine Northern Hemisphere winters. Based on a case study and a composite analysis, the main findings can be summarized as follows. (i) WCB air masses are part of deep, strongly precipitating clouds, with cloud-top heights at 9–10 km during their ascent and an about 2–3 km deep layer with supercooled liquid water co-existing with ice above the melting layer. The maximum surface precipitation occurs when the WCB is at about 2–4 km height. (ii) Convective clouds can be observed above the inflow and during the ascent. (iii) At upper levels, the WCB outflow is typically located near the top of a 3 km deep cirrus layer. (iv) There is a large variability between WCBs in terms of cloud structure, peak reflectivity and associated surface precipitation. (v) The WCB trajectories with the highest radar reflectivities are mainly located over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and – apart from the inflow – they occur at relatively low latitudes. They are associated with particularly deep and strongly precipitating clouds that occur not only during the ascent but also in the inflow and outflow regions. (vi) ERA5 represents the WCB clouds remarkably well in terms of position, thermodynamic phase and frozen hydrometeor distribution, although it underestimates the high ice and snow values in the mixed-phase clouds near the melting layer. (vii) In the lower troposphere, high potential vorticity is diabatically produced along the WCB in areas with high reflectivities and hydrometeor contents, and at upper levels, low potential vorticity prevails in the cirrus layer in the WCB outflow. The study provides important observational insight into the internal cloud structure of WCBs and emphasizes the ability of ERA5 to essentially capture the observed pattern but also reveals many small- and mesoscale structures observed by the remote sensing instruments but not captured by ERA5., Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2), ISSN:2698-4016, ISSN:2698-4008

Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2 (1), ISSN:2698-4016, ISSN:2698-4008

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73 (10), ISSN:0022-4928, ISSN:1520-0469