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13 results on '"Bilovich, Avri"'

1. Beyond introspection : an exploration of the correspondence between directly and indirectly elicited preferences

Author

Bilovich, Avri

Subjects
658, HF Commerce
Abstract

This thesis aims to explore the limits of introspection, concentrating on the methodological aspect of preference elicitation. I use the comparison between direct and indirect elicitation methods, as well as their use in predicting choices, to explore when people are able to self-report their preferences. Three distinct contexts are used: the purchasing of habitual grocery products, the preferences of ethical consumers, and the political preferences of urban Pakistanis towards the USA. The unreliability of direct elicitation methods, and the superiority of indirect methods in predicting choices that are uncovered in the first study are echoed in the context of ethical consumers. Indeed, even these more deliberative consumers, who reported an increased preference for ethical attributes, are shown to not be able to correctly report the drivers of their decisions. Conversely, the results of the third study indicated that urban Pakistani’s preferences towards the USA were introspectively accessible: both types of elicitation methods were aligned in their results and were robust to short term attempts to change them. This thesis contributes to the debate on the limits of introspection in several ways. Firstly, I demonstrate the inaccessibility of preferences for often experienced and purchased goods, even for more deliberative and attribute-conscious shoppers such as ethical consumers. I also demonstrate that unlike these preferences, political attitudes are more introspectively accessible. The work also presents a number of practical outcomes, such as the usability of lexicographic choice models with directly elicited preferences, as well as the plurality of ethical consumers’ concerns. Finally, the robustness of political attitudes in Pakistan to actual pro-American advertisements indicate the need for a change of strategy in promoting the USA’s positive impact in the country.

Published
2018

4. Group 4 Fork of EADM Summer School 2018 - Mousetracking

Author

McCaughey, Linda, Bilovich, Avri, Schnepper, Rebekka, Eggers, Isabel, and Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael

Abstract

We will run a mouse-tracking study at the EADM Summer School 2018 with 5 groups of students. The studies will be pre-registered, documented and the data uploaded to this project.

Published
2022
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8. Conviction Narrative Theory: A theory of choice under radical uncertainty.

Author

Johnson, Samuel G. B., Bilovich, Avri, and Tuckett, David

Subjects
*CHOICE (Psychology), *SOCIAL perception, *MENTAL representation, *SOCIAL support, *RESEARCH personnel, *CAUSAL models
Abstract

Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty – situations where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives – structured representations of causal, temporal, analogical, and valence relationships – rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative that feels "right" to explain the available data; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We identify 12 propositions to explain how the mental representations (narratives) interact with four inter-related processes (explanation, simulation, affective evaluation, and communication), examining the theoretical and empirical basis for each. We conclude by discussing how CNT can provide a common vocabulary for researchers studying everyday choices across areas of the decision sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
Full Text
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13. Beyond introspection : an exploration of the correspondence between directly and indirectly elicited preferences

Author

Bilovich, Avri

Subjects
HF
Abstract

This thesis aims to explore the limits of introspection, concentrating on the methodological aspect of preference elicitation. I use the comparison between direct and indirect elicitation methods, as well as their use in predicting choices, to explore when people are able to self-report their preferences. Three distinct contexts are used: the purchasing of habitual grocery products, the preferences of ethical consumers, and the political preferences of urban Pakistanis towards the USA. \ud \ud The unreliability of direct elicitation methods, and the superiority of indirect methods in predicting choices that are uncovered in the first study are echoed in the context of ethical consumers. Indeed, even these more deliberative consumers, who reported an increased preference for ethical attributes, are shown to not be able to correctly report the drivers of their decisions. Conversely, the results of the third study indicated that urban Pakistani’s preferences towards the USA were introspectively accessible: both types of elicitation methods were aligned in their results and were robust to short term attempts to change them. \ud \ud This thesis contributes to the debate on the limits of introspection in several ways. Firstly, I demonstrate the inaccessibility of preferences for often experienced and purchased goods, even for more deliberative and attribute-conscious shoppers such as ethical consumers. I also demonstrate that unlike these preferences, political attitudes are more introspectively accessible. The work also presents a number of practical outcomes, such as the usability of lexicographic choice models with directly elicited preferences, as well as the plurality of ethical consumers’ concerns. Finally, the robustness of political attitudes in Pakistan to actual pro-American advertisements indicate the need for a change of strategy in promoting the USA’s positive impact in the country. \ud

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