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A new concept, called quasi-linear transfer functions (QLTF), which can be used to characterize the output frequency behaviour of nonlinear systems, is introduced based on the well-known Volterra series representation. By using the new concept of QLTF, it can be proved that the input and output frequency behaviour of a given system can be expressed using a number of one-dimensional functions with a form similar to that of the traditional frequency response function for linear systems. Two algorithms, which can be used to determine the valid range of the associated output frequencies of arbitrary order nonlinear subsystems with both a multitone and general inputs, are provided. The results obtained provide a new important insight into the output frequency characteristics of nonlinear systems and have many potential applications in nonlinear systems analysis and nonlinear structure detection, Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or their variants, to simulate and study the spread of the coronavirus. SIR and SEIR are continuous-time models which are a class of initial value problems (IVPs) of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Discrete-time models such as regression and machine learning have also been applied to analyze COVID-19 pandemic data (e.g. predicting infection cases), but most of these methods use simplified models involving a small number of input variables pre-selected based on a priori knowledge, or use very complicated models (e.g. deep learning), purely focusing on certain prediction purposes and paying little attention to the model interpretability. There have been relatively fewer studies focusing on the investigations of the inherent time-lagged or time-delayed relationships e.g. between the reproduction number (R number), infection cases, and deaths, analyzing the pandemic spread from a systems thinking and dynamic perspective. The present study, for the first time, proposes using systems engineering and system identification approach to build transparent, interpretable, parsimonious and simulatable (TIPS) dynamic machine learning models, establishing links between the R number, the infection cases and deaths caused by COVID-19. The TIPS models are developed based on the well-known NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs) model, which can help better understand the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics. A case study on the UK COVID-19 data is carried out, and new findings are detailed. The proposed method and the associated new findings are useful for better understanding the spread dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

The wavelet transform and related techniques are used to analyze singular and fractal signals. The normalized wavelet scalogram is introduced to detect singularities including jumps, cusps and other sharply changing points. The wavelet auto-covariance is applied to estimate the self-similarity exponent for statistical self-affine signals., Comment: 6 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30-50 keV, 50-100 keV, 100-200 keV, 200-350 keV, and 350-600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Craters created by explosives have been found to serve as valuable analogs to impact craters, within limits. Explosion craters have been created in floating terrestrial ice in experiments related to clearing ice from waterways. Features called chaos occur on the surface of Europa s floating ice shell. Chaos is defined as a region in which the background plains have been disrupted. Common features of chaos include rafted blocks of pre-existing terrain suspended in a matrix of smooth or hummocky material; low surface albedo; and structural control on chaos outline shape by pre-existing lineaments. All published models of chaos formation call on endogenic processes whereby chaos forms through thermal processes. Nonetheless, we note morphological similarities between terrestrial explosion craters and Europan chaos at a range of scales and consider whether some chaos may have formed by impact. We explore these similarities through geologic and morphologic mapping.

We use equations describing the deflection of an elastic plate below a line load to estimate ice crust thickness below ridges on Europa. Using a range of elastic parameters, ice thickness is calculated to fall in the range 0.2 2.6 km. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.