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In this paper we hypothesize that education is associated with a higher efficiency of health investment, yet that this efficiency advantage is solely driven by intelligence. We operationalize efficiency of health investment as the probability of dying conditional on a certain hospital diagnosis, and estimate a multistate structural equation model with three states: (i) healthy, (ii) ill (in hospital), and (iii) death. We use data from a Dutch cohort born around 1940 that links intelligence tests at age 12 to later-life hospitalization and mortality records. The results suggest that higher Intelligence induces the higher educated to be more efficient users of health investment - intelligent individuals have a clear survival advantage for most hospital diagnoses - yet for unanticipated health shocks and diseases that require complex treatments such as COPD, education still plays a role.

Many people think of international migration as a one-way move, whilst in reality many immigrants only move overseas temporarily. An important question is: Who leaves and who stays? For example, is it the successful immigrants who leave whilst the unsuccessful ones, who might be relying on the generosity of the welfare state in the host country, stay? And if so, who leaves faster: the successful immigrants or the unsuccessful ones?

Practising arts has been linked to lowering stress, anxiety and blood pressure. These mechanisms are all known to affect the ageing process. Therefore, we examine the relation between long-term involvement in arts and life expectancy at age 50 (LE50), in a cohort of 12,159 male acoustic, literary and visual artists, who were born between 1700 and 1899 in the Low Countries. We compared the life expectancy at age 50 of the various artists with the elite and middle class of that time. In the birth cohorts before 1850, acoustic (LE50:14.5–19.5) and literary artists (LE50:17.8–20.8) had a similar life expectancy at age 50 compared to the elite (LE50:18.0–19.0). Only visual artists (LE50:15.5–17.1) had a lower life expectancy at age 50 compared to the elite at that time. For the most recent birth cohorts from 1850 through 1899, the comparison between artists and the elite reversed and acoustic and literary artist had a lower life expectancy at age 50, while visual artists enjoyed a similar life expectancy at age 50. Although artists belonged to the middle socioeconomic class and lived predominantly in urban areas with poor living conditions, they had a life expectancy similar to the elite population. This is in line with observed favourable effects of practicing arts on health in the short-term. From our historical analysis, we hypothesize several mechanisms through which artistic creativity could influence the ageing process and life expectancy. These hypotheses, however, should be formally tested before any definite conclusions on effects of arts on ageing can be drawn.

To what extent does unemployment affect the decisions of migrants to return to their home country? Does unemployment lead immigrants to departure? Does re-employment increase the chance of immigrants to stay? How does the effect vary by the duration of unemployment and re-employment spell? This briefing summarises the effects of labour market dynamics on return migration from the Netherlands published in NORFACE MIGRATION Discussion Paper No. 2011-7.

Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to The Netherlands, we estimate the causal effects of labour dynamics on their return decisions. Specifically, the roles of unemployment and re-employment spells on immigration durations are examined. The endogeneity of labour market outcomes and the return migration decision, if ignored, confounds the causal effect. This empirical challenge is addressed using the “timing-of-events” method. We estimate the model separately for distinct immigrant groups, and find that, overall, unemployment spells shorten immigration durations, while reemployment spells delay returns for all but one group. The magnitude of the causal effect differs across groups.

In survival analysis a large literature using frailty models, or models with unobserved heterogeneity, exist. In the growing literate on multiple spell multiple states duration models, or multistate models, modeling this issue is only at its infant phase. Ignoring unobserved heteogeneity can, however, produce incorrect results. This paper presents how unobserved heterogeneity can be incorporated into multistate models, with an emphasis on semi-Markov multistate models with a mixed proportional hazard structure. First, the aspects of frailty modeling in univariate (proportional hazard, Cox) duration models are addressed and some important models with unobserved heterogeneity are discussed. Second, the domain is extended to modeling of parallel/clustered multivariate duration data with unobserved heterogeneity. The implications of choosing shared or correlated unobserved heterogeneity is highlighted. The relevant differences with recurrent events data is covered next. They include the choice of the time scale and risk set which both have important implications for the way unobserved heterogeneity influence the model. Multistate duration models can have both parallel and recurrent events. Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in multistate models, therefore, brings all the previously addressed issues together. Although some estimation procedures are covered the emphasis is on conceptual issues. The importance of including unobserved heterogeneity in multistate duration models is illustrated with data on labour market and migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands.

In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeated migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. Microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. Scenarios based on microsimulation indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. Scenarios also indicate that an increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to higher labour market and migration dynamics. Finally, based on microsimulation we do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast.

Ridder and Woutersen (2003) have shown that under a weak condition on the baseline hazard there exist root-N consistent estimators of the parameters in a semiparametric Mixed Proportional Hazard model with a parametric baseline hazard and unspecified distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity. We extend the Linear Rank Estimator (LRE) of Tsiatis (1990) and Robins and Tsiatis (1991) to this class of models. The optimal LRE is a two-step estimator. We propose a simple first-step estimator that is close to optimal if there is no unobserved heterogeneity. The efficiency gain associated with the optimal LRE increases with the degree of unobserved heterogeneity.

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country important policy implications can be derived, including admission procedures for different countries and/or migration motives.

Labor markets in Western countries are becoming more and more flexible, thereby meeting the needs of employers. Yet the new flexibility also offers opportunities to workers, while at the same time bears the risk of long-term exclusion. This paper deals with unequal chances on the contemporary Dutch labor market, in particular for workers with unfavorable human capital characteristics. As such we have chosen workers from the four largest immigrant groups: Turks, Moroccans, Surinamese and Antilleans. The data used are from the SPVA, the survey 'Social Position and Use of Public Utilities by Migrants' for the years 1998 and 2002. These are based on stock sampling. Since for some individuals labor market transitions occur at a very low rate, these individuals may stay in the current state till they reach the retirement age of 65. We estimate hazard rate models that account for both the stock-sampling and the possible maximum duration for the transitions from unemployment, household care and disability to employment. Then we decompose the differences in expected duration between the immigrant groups and the Dutch natives into the contribution of differences in observable characteristics, coefficient estimates and baseline hazard parameters. The main results of the analyses are that unequal chances exist, but to a different degree for the various groups and with variations per transition type. Labor market experience seems to protect from long-term exclusion.