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Objective: To explore relationships between beta-cell function and incident cardiovascular events, death, and medical costs among elderly individuals.Research Design and Methods: In a prospective, population-based cohort of 4555 elderly individuals, we examined the effect of beta-cell function on incident cardiovascular events and mortality. We also examined costs for 3715 of these individuals. We used the computer-based homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) to calculate indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-%B) and insulin sensitivity (HOMA-%S) using baseline fasting glucose and insulin levels. All subjects were followed from 1992/1993 for 6 years or until death.Main Outcome Measures: Discrete-time survival model of the effects of beta-cell function on incident cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality; and semiparametric estimators for calculations of mean 6-year costs.Results: Controlling for HOMA-%S, a 20% decrease in HOMA-%B was associated with increased odds of incident cardiovascular events (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.14) and death (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.07-1.14). The relationships persisted after controlling for clinical and sociodemographic confounders. A 20% decrease in HOMA-%B was also associated with increased costs (cost ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05). The significant association did not persist after controlling for confounders.Limitations: The sample comprises relatively healthy elderly individuals and is based on data from 1992 through 1999, which may not reflect current experience. The measure of beta-cell function is an estimate generated from single measures of glucose and insulin.Conclusions: Beta-cell function as measured by HOMA-%B is a significant predictor of incident cardiovascular events and mortality but not of costs, controlling for HOMA-%S and sociodemographic and clinical confounders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: The cardiovascular consequences of the metabolic syndrome and its component risk factors have been documented in elderly individuals. Little is known about how the metabolic syndrome and its individual components translate into long-term medical costs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used log-linear regression models to assess the independent contributions of the metabolic syndrome and its individual components to 10-year medical costs among 3,789 individuals aged > or = 65 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study. RESULTS: As defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program Third Adult Treatment Panel report, the metabolic syndrome was present in 47% of the sample. Total costs to Medicare were 20% higher among participants with the metabolic syndrome ($40,873 vs. $33,010; P < 0.001). Controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and other covariates, we found that abdominal obesity, low HDL cholesterol, and elevated blood pressure were associated with 15% (95% CI 4.3-26.7), 16% (1.7-31.8), and 20% (10.1-31.7) higher costs, respectively. When added to the model, the metabolic syndrome composite variable did not contribute significantly (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Abdominal obesity, low HDL cholesterol, and hypertension but not the metabolic syndrome per se are important predictors of long-term costs in the Medicare population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

En la introducción se comentan algunas de las consecuencias ecológicas, agronómicas, socioeconómicas y culturales de la liberación comercial de maíz transgénico en México. Posteriormente, se describe la situación actual del proceso de concentración y privatización en la producción y comercio de semillas a nivel mundial y de manera particular en México. Luego, se mencionan las oportunidades y alternativas que existen ante la situación descrita previamente. Así, se indican los aspectos relacionados con las patentes biotecnológicas dentro del contexto internacional y los Derechos de Obtentor, seguido del análisis de las propuestas de reformas a la Ley Federal de Variedades Vegetales del país. El documento finaliza con una discusión general y con las conclusiones.

Objectives . To assess whether the use of cardioprotective therapies for type 2 diabetes varies by gender and whether the risk of cardiovascular events is higher in women versus men in the REWIND trial, including an international type 2 diabetes patient population with a wide range of baseline risk. Design . Gender differences in baseline characteristics, cardioprotective therapy, and the achieved clinical targets at baseline and two years were analyzed. Hazards for cardiovascular outcomes (fatal/nonfatal stroke, fatal/nonfatal myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and heart failure hospitalization), in women versus men were analyzed using two Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for randomized treatment and key baseline characteristics respectively. Time-to-event analyses were performed in subgroups with or without history of cardiovascular disease using Cox proportional hazards models that included gender, subgroup, randomized treatment, and gender-by-subgroup interactions. Results . Of 9901 participants, 46.3% were women. Significantly fewer women than men had a cardiovascular disease history. Although most women met treatment targets for blood pressure (96.7%) and lipids (72.8%), fewer women than men met the target for cardioprotective therapies at baseline and after two years, particularly those with prior cardiovascular disease, who used less renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, statins, and aspirin than men. Despite these differences, women had lower hazards than men for all outcomes except stroke. No significant gender and cardiovascular disease history interactions were identified for cardiovascular outcomes. Conclusions . In REWIND, most women met clinically relevant treatment targets, but in lower proportions than men. Women had a lower risk for all cardiovascular outcomes except stroke. Clinical trials.gov registration number: NCT01394952 .

Objective: The glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide reduced MACE in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. This article expores the relationship of selected biomarkers to both dulaglutide and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)., Research Design and Methods: In this post hoc analysis, stored fasting baseline and 2-year plasma samples from 824 REWIND participants with MACE during follow-up and 845 matched non-MACE participants were analyzed for 2-year changes in 19 protein biomarkers. Two-year changes in 135 metabolites were also analyzed in 600 participants with MACE during follow-up and in 601 matched non-MACE participants. Linear and logistic regression models were used to identify proteins that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE. Similar models were used to identify metabolites that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE., Results: Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was associated with a greater reduction or lesser 2-year rise from baseline in N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and a greater 2-year rise in C-peptide. Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was also associated with a greater fall from baseline in 2-hydroxybutyric acid and a greater rise in threonine (P < 0.001). Increases from baseline in two of the proteins (but neither metabolite) were associated with MACE, including NT-proBNP (OR 1.267; 95% CI 1.119, 1.435; P < 0.001) and GDF-15 (OR 1.937; 95% CI 1.424, 2.634; P < 0.001)., Conclusions: Dulaglutide was associated with a reduced 2-year rise from baseline of NT-proBNP and GDF-15. Higher rises of these biomarkers were also associated with MACE., (© 2023 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: Estimating cardiovascular (CV) event accrual is important for outcome trial planning. Limited data exist describing event accrual patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compared apparent CV event accrual patterns with true event rates in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS)., Methods: Centrally adjudicated event dates and accrual rates for a 4-point major adverse CV event composite (MACE-4; includes CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina hospitalization), MACE-4 components, all-cause mortality (ACM), and heart failure hospitalization were compiled. We used three graphical methods (Weibull probability plot, plot of negative log of the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution estimate, and the Epanechnikov kernel-smoothed estimate of the hazard rate) to examine hazard rate morphology over time for the 7 outcomes., Results: Plots for all outcomes showed real-time constant event hazard rates for the duration of the follow-up, confirmed by Weibull shape parameters. The Weibull shape parameters for ACM (1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.21) and CV death (1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16) were not sufficiently > 1 as to require non-constant hazard rate models to accurately depict the data. The time lag between event occurrence and event adjudication being completed, the adjudication gap, improved over the course of the trial., Conclusions: In TECOS, the nonfatal event hazard rates were constant over time. Small increases over time in the hazard rate for fatal events would not require complex modelling to predict event accrual, providing confidence in traditional modelling methods for predicting CV outcome trial event rates in this population. The adjudication gap provides a useful metric to monitor within-trial event accrual patterns., Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00790205., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims: People with diabetes are at high risk for cardiovascular events including heart failure (HF). We examined the effect of the glucagon-like peptide 1 agonist dulaglutide on incident HF events and other cardiovascular outcomes in those with or without prior HF in the randomized placebo-controlled Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial., Methods and Results: The REWIND major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) outcome was the first occurrence of a composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes). In this post-hoc analysis, a HF event was defined as an adjudication-confirmed hospitalization or urgent evaluation for HF. Of the 9901 participants studied over a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 213/4949 (4.3%) randomly assigned to dulaglutide and 226/4952 (4.6%) participants assigned to placebo experienced a HF event (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-1.12; p = 0.456). In the 853 (8.6%) participants with HF at baseline, there was no change in either MACE or HF events with dulaglutide as compared to participants without HF (p = 0.44 and 0.19 for interaction, respectively). Combined cardiovascular death and HF events were marginally reduced with dulaglutide compared to placebo (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00; p = 0.050) but unchanged in patients with and without HF at baseline (p = 0.31)., Conclusions: Dulaglutide was not associated with a reduction in HF events in patients with type 2 diabetes regardless of baseline HF status over 5.4 years of follow-up., (© 2022 European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: This post hoc analysis investigated the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in subgroups of participants at increased CVD risk in the AWARD-11 study., Methods: Participants who received once weekly dulaglutide 1.5, 3.0 or 4.5 mg for 52 weeks were categorized according to their baseline Framingham CVD risk category [low (N = 295), medium (N = 481) and high (N = 1054) risk], as well as their baseline CVD risk according to the REWIND study eligibility criteria (N = 953). Serum lipids and vital signs were assessed at baseline and at 52 weeks. Data were analysed as least squares mean percentage change from baseline for lipids and least squares mean change from baseline for vital signs., Results: Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics were balanced across doses within the CVD risk groups. In the high Framingham CVD risk and REWIND-like groups, dulaglutide resulted in dose-related decreases in total cholesterol (≤6.0%), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≤8.8%), very-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≤19.4%) and triglycerides (≤21.5%), with little change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased up to 5.6 mmHg and 1.6 mmHg, respectively, and heart rate increased up to 2 beats/min., Conclusions: This post hoc analysis suggests the magnitude of the favourable effects of dulaglutide 3.0 mg and 4.5 mg on several cardiometabolic CVD risk factors was similar to, if not greater than, those of dulaglutide 1.5 mg among participants with type 2 diabetes and increased CVD risk., Clinicaltrials: gov Identifier: NCT03495102., (© 2022 Eli Lilly and Company. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Context: Low cognitive scores are risk factors for cardiovascular outcomes. Whether this relationship is stronger using novel cognitive indices is unknown., Methods: Participants in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial who completed both the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score and Digit Substitution Test (DSST) at baseline (N = 8772) were included. These scores were used to identify participants with baseline substantive cognitive impairment (SCI), defined as a baseline score on either the MoCA or DSST ≥ 1.5 SD below either score's country-specific mean, or SCI-GM, which was based on a composite index of both scores calculated as their geometric mean (GM), and defined as a score that was ≥ 1.5 SD below their country's average GM. Relationships between these measures and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and either stroke or death were analyzed., Results: Compared with 7867 (89.7%) unaffected participants, the 905 (10.3%) participants with baseline SCI had a higher incidence of MACE (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.62; P = 0.003), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.33, 1.91; P < 0.001). Stronger relationships were noted for SCI-GM and MACE (unadjusted HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.28, 2.01; P < 0.001), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.50, 2.30; P < 0.001). For SCI-GM but not SCI, all these relationships remained significant in models that adjusted for up to 10 SCI risk factors., Conclusion: Country-standardized SCI-GM was a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes in the REWIND trial., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The AWARD-11 trial demonstrated the safety and efficacy of dulaglutide 3.0 and 4.5 mg compared to dulaglutide 1.5 mg in patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin. This post hoc analysis examined the change from baseline in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and proportions of patients achieving HbA1c <7% at weeks 36 and 52 with dulaglutide 1.5 mg, 3.0 mg or 4.5 mg across clinically relevant baseline HbA1c subgroups (<8%; 8.0% to < 9.0%; 9.0% to < 10%; and ≥ 10%). Mean reductions in HbA1c were observed across all baseline HbA1c subgroups at 36 weeks (range of HbA1c change: 1.5 mg: -1.0% to -2.2%; 3.0 mg: -1.2% to -2.5%; and 4.5 mg: -1.2% to -3.2%). More patients randomized to 3.0 mg or 4.5 mg (vs. 1.5 mg) achieved HbA1c <7% at 36 weeks regardless of baseline HbA1c; the difference in proportions was greater at higher baseline HbA1c (P-interaction = 0.096). Similar patterns in glycaemic improvement and proportions achieving HbA1c <7% were observed at 52 weeks. Hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events were similar among the HbA1c subgroups. Glycaemic control was improved with dulaglutide dose escalation from 1.5 mg to 3.0 mg or 4.5 mg across baseline HbA1c subgroups (<8%; 8.0% to < 9.0%; 9.0% to < 10%; and ≥ 10%)., (© 2021 Eli Lilly and Company. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aim: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of dulaglutide 3.0 and 4.5 mg versus 1.5 mg when used as an add-on to metformin in subgroups defined by age (<65 and ≥65 years)., Materials and Methods: Of 1842 patients included in this post hoc analysis, 438 were aged 65 years or older and 1404 were younger than 65 years. The intent-to-treat (ITT) population, while on treatment without rescue medication, was used for all efficacy analyses; the ITT population without rescue medication was used for hypoglycaemia analyses; all other safety analyses used the ITT population., Results: Patients aged 65 years or older and those younger than 65 years had a mean age of 69.5 and 53.2 years, respectively. In each age subgroup, the reduction from baseline in HbA1c and body weight (BW), and the proportion of patients achieving a composite endpoint of HbA1c of less than 7% (<53 mmol/mol) with no weight gain and no documented symptomatic or severe hypoglycaemia, were larger for dulaglutide 3.0 and 4.5 mg compared with dulaglutide 1.5 mg, but the treatment-by-age interactions were not significant. The safety profile for the additional dulaglutide doses was consistent with that of dulaglutide 1.5 mg and was similar between the age subgroups., Conclusion: Dulaglutide doses of 3.0 or 4.5 mg provided clinically relevant, dose-related improvements in HbA1c and BW with no significant treatment-by-age interactions, and with a similar safety profile across age subgroups., (© 2021 Eli Lilly and Company. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) events are the most frequent treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) reported for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist therapies. This post hoc analysis of the AWARD-11 phase 3 trial assessed the GI tolerability of dulaglutide at once-weekly doses of 1.5, 3.0, and 4.5 mg., Methods: The AWARD-11 trial randomized patients to once-weekly dulaglutide 1.5 mg (n = 612), 3.0 mg (n = 616), or 4.5 mg (n = 614) for 52 weeks. Patients started on dulaglutide 0.75 mg for 4 weeks before escalating stepwise every 4 weeks until the final randomized dose was reached. This study analyzes the onsets, incidences, prevalences, and severities of nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea events reported through 52 weeks., Results: The highest incidences of nausea (≤ 8%), vomiting (≤ 2%), and diarrhea (≤ 4%) were primarily observed soon after the initiation of dulaglutide treatment at 0.75 mg. Incidence then declined throughout the remainder of the study, even with dose escalation to 1.5, 3.0, and 4.5 mg. Most of these GI TEAEs were mild to moderate in severity, with severe nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea events occurring in ≤ 0.6% of patients. Treatment discontinuation due to nausea was low across treatment groups (≤ 1.5%)., Conclusions: The tolerability profiles of dulaglutide 3.0 mg and 4.5 mg were consistent with that of the 1.5-mg dose. Patients experiencing GI events were most likely to do so within 2 weeks of treatment initiation, and few patients experienced a new GI event after escalating to the 3.0-mg or 4.5-mg dose. Severe events were infrequent, and when they did occur, no relationship with dose at time of event was observed. Supplementary file1 (MP4 33880 kb)., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Diabetes has been identified as a high-risk comorbidity for COVID-19 hospitalization. We evaluated additional risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in a nationwide US database., Methods: This retrospective study utilized the UnitedHealth Group Clinical Discovery Database (January 1, 2019-July 15, 2020) containing de-identified nationwide administrative claims, SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test results, and COVID-19 inpatient admissions data. Logistic regression was used to understand risk factors for hospitalization and in-hospital mortality among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and in the overall population. Robustness of associations was further confirmed by subgroup and sensitivity analyses in the T2D population., Results: A total of 36,364 people were identified who were either SARS-CoV-2 + or hospitalized for COVID-19. T2D was associated with increased COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality. Factors associated with increased hospitalization risk were largely consistent in the overall population and the T2D subgroup, including age, male sex, and these top five comorbidities: dementia, metastatic tumor, congestive heart failure, paraplegia, and metabolic disease. Biguanides (mainly metformin) were consistently associated with lower odds of hospitalization, whereas sulfonylureas and insulins were associated with greater odds of hospitalization among people with T2D., Conclusion: In this nationwide US analysis, T2D was identified as an independent risk factor for COVID-19 complications. Many factors conferred similar risk of hospitalization across both populations; however, particular diabetes medications may be markers for differential risk. The insights on comorbidities and medications may inform population health initiatives, including prevention efforts for high-risk patient populations such as those with T2D., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: To compare efficacy and safety of dulaglutide at doses of 3.0 and 4.5 mg versus 1.5 mg in patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin., Research Design and Methods: Patients were randomly assigned to once-weekly dulaglutide 1.5 mg, 3.0 mg, or 4.5 mg for 52 weeks. The primary objective was determining superiority of dulaglutide 3.0 mg and/or 4.5 mg over 1.5 mg in HbA 1c reduction at 36 weeks. Secondary superiority objectives included change in body weight. Two estimands addressed efficacy objectives: treatment regimen (regardless of treatment discontinuation or rescue medication) and efficacy (on treatment without rescue medication) in all randomly assigned patients., Results: Mean baseline HbA 1c and BMI in randomly assigned patients ( N = 1,842) was 8.6% (70 mmol/mol) and 34.2 kg/m 2 , respectively. At 36 weeks, dulaglutide 4.5 mg provided superior HbA 1c reductions compared with 1.5 mg (treatment-regimen estimand: -1.77 vs. -1.54% [-19.4 vs. -16.8 mmol/mol], estimated treatment difference [ETD] -0.24% (-2.6 mmol/mol), P < 0.001; efficacy estimand: -1.87 vs. -1.53% [-20.4 vs. -16.7 mmol/mol], ETD -0.34% (-3.7 mmol/mol), P < 0.001). Dulaglutide 3.0 mg was superior to 1.5 mg for reducing HbA 1c , using the efficacy estimand (ETD -0.17% [-1.9 mmol/mol]; P = 0.003) but not the treatment-regimen estimand (ETD -0.10% [-1.1 mmol/mol]; P = 0.096). Dulaglutide 4.5 mg was superior to 1.5 mg for weight loss at 36 weeks for both estimands (treatment regimen: -4.6 vs. -3.0 kg, ETD -1.6 kg, P < 0.001; efficacy: -4.7 vs. -3.1 kg, ETD -1.6 kg, P < 0.001). Common adverse events through 36 weeks included nausea (1.5 mg, 13.4%; 3 mg, 15.6%; 4.5 mg, 16.4%) and vomiting (1.5 mg, 5.6%; 3 mg, 8.3%; 4.5 mg, 9.3%)., Conclusions: In patients with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled by metformin, escalation from dulaglutide 1.5 mg to 3.0 mg or 4.5 mg provided clinically relevant, dose-related reductions in HbA 1c and body weight with a similar safety profile., (© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: Long-term glycemic control reduces retinopathy risk, but transient worsening can occur with glucose control intensification. Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) lower glucose, but the long-term impact on retinopathy is unknown. GLP-1RA cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) provide long-term follow-up, allowing examination of retinopathy outcomes., Purpose: To examine the associations between retinopathy, HbA 1c , systolic blood pressure (SBP), and weight in GLP-1RA CVOTs., Data Sources: Systematic review identified six placebo-controlled GLP-1RA CVOTs reporting prespecified retinopathy outcomes., Study Selection: Published trial reports were used as the primary data sources., Data Extraction: HbA 1c , SBP, and weight data throughout follow-up by treatment group were extracted., Data Synthesis: Random-effects model meta-analysis showed no association between GLP-1RA treatment and retinopathy (odds ratio [OR] 1.10; 95% CI 0.93, 1.30), with high heterogeneity between studies ( I 2 = 52.2%; Q statistic P = 0.063). Univariate meta-regression showed an association between retinopathy and average HbA 1c reduction during the overall follow-up (slope = 0.77, P = 0.007), but no relationship for SBP or weight. Sensitivity analyses for HbA 1c showed a relationship at 3 months ( P = 0.006) and 1 year ( P = 0.002). A 0.1% (1.09 mmol/mol) increase in HbA 1c reduction was associated with 6%, 14%, or 8% increased Ln(OR) for retinopathy at the 3-month, 1-year, and overall follow-up, respectively., Limitations: CVOTs were not powered to assess retinopathy outcomes and differed in retinopathy-related criteria and methodology. The median follow-up of 3.4 years is short compared with the onset of retinopathy., Conclusions: HbA 1c reduction was significantly associated with increased retinopathy risk in meta-regression for GLP-1RA CVOTs. The magnitude of HbA 1c reduction was correlated with retinopathy risk in people with diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors, but the long-term impact of improved glycemic control on retinopathy was unmeasured in these studies. Retinopathy status should be assessed when intensifying glucose-lowering therapy., (© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Aim: To assess whether the previously developed multivariable risk prediction framework (PRE score) could predict the renal effects observed in the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial using short-term changes in cardio-renal risk markers., Materials and Methods: Changes from baseline to 6 months in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), haemoglobin, total cholesterol, and new micro- or macroalbuminuria were evaluated. The renal outcomes were defined as a composite of a sustained 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Relationships between risk markers and long-term renal outcomes were determined in patients with type 2 diabetes from the ALTITUDE study using multivariable Cox regression analysis, and then applied to short-term changes in risk markers observed in EXSCEL to predict the exenatide-induced impact on renal outcomes., Results: Compared with placebo, mean HbA1c, BMI, SBP and total cholesterol were lower at 6 months with exenatide, as was the incidence of new microalbuminuria. The PRE score predicted a relative risk reduction for the 30% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint of 11.3% (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.94), compared with 12.7% (HR 0.87; 0.77-0.99) observed risk reduction. For the 40% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint, the predicted and observed risk reductions were 11.0% (HR 0.89; 0.82-0.97) and 13.7% (HR 0.86, 0.72-1.04), respectively., Conclusions: Integrating short-term risk marker changes into a multivariable risk score predicted the magnitude of renal risk reduction observed in EXSCEL., (© 2020 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering) assessed the impact of once-weekly exenatide 2 mg versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, while aiming for glycemic equipoise. Consequently, greater drop-in of open-label glucose-lowering medications occurred in the placebo group. Accordingly, we explored the potential effects of their unbalanced use on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality (ACM), given that some of these agents are cardioprotective., Methods: Cox hazard models were performed by randomized treatment for drug classes where >5% open-label drop-in glucose-lowering medication occurred, and for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs; 3.0%) using three methodologies: drop-in visit right censoring, inverse probability for treatment weighting (IPTW), and applying drug class risk reductions., Results: Baseline glucose-lowering medications for the 14 752 EXSCEL participants (73.1% with previous cardiovascular disease) did not differ between treatment groups. During median 3.2 years follow-up, open-label drop-in occurred in 33.4% of participants, more frequently with placebo than exenatide (38.1% versus 28.8%), with metformin (6.1% versus 4.9%), sulfonylurea (8.7% versus 6.9%), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (10.6% versus 7.5%), SGLT-2i (10.3% versus 8.1%), GLP-1 RA (3.4% versus 2.4%), and insulin (13.8% versus 9.4%). The MACE effect size was not altered meaningfully by right censoring, but the favorable HR for exenatide became nominally significant in the sulfonylurea and any glucose-lowering medication groups, while the ACM HR and p-values were essentially unchanged. IPTW decreased the MACE HR from 0.91 ( P =0.061) to 0.85 ( P =0.008) and the ACM HR from 0.86 ( P =0.016) to 0.81 ( P =0.012). Application of literature-derived risk reductions showed no meaningful changes in MACE or ACM HRs or P values, although simulations of substantially greater use of drop-in cardioprotective glucose-lowering agents demonstrated blunting of signal detection., Conclusions: EXSCEL-observed HRs for MACE and ACM remained robust after right censoring or application of literature-derived risk reductions, but the exenatide versus placebo MACE effect size and statistical significance were increased by IPTW. Effects of open-label drop-in cardioprotective medications need to be considered carefully when designing, conducting, and analyzing cardiovascular outcome trials of glucose-lowering agents under the premise of glycemic equipoise. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01144338.

Objective: We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk., Research Design and Methods: In a post hoc analysis of 14,752 Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) participants, we examined time-dependent associations between SHEs and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), fatal/nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (hACS), hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as time-dependent associations between nonfatal CV events and subsequent SHEs., Results: SHEs were uncommon and not associated with once-weekly exenatide therapy (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.94-1.36], P = 0.179). In fully adjusted models, SHEs were associated with an increased risk of subsequent ACM (1.83 [1.38-2.42], P < 0.001), CV death (1.60 [1.11-2.30], P = 0.012), and hHF (2.09 [1.37-3.17], P = 0.001), while nonfatal MI (2.02 [1.35-3.01], P = 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.30 [1.25-4.23], P = 0.007), hACS (2.00 [1.39-2.90], P < 0.001), and hHF (3.24 [1.98-5.30], P < 0.001) were all associated with a subsequent increased risk of SHEs. The elevated bidirectional time-dependent hazards linking SHEs and a composite of all CV events were approximately constant over time, with those individuals at dual risk showing higher comorbidity scores compared with those without., Conclusions: These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events as well as greater risk of CV events after SHEs, validate a bidirectional relationship between CV events and SHEs in patients with high comorbidity scores., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: To compare medical resource use, costs, and health utilities for 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes who were randomized to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) or placebo in addition to usual diabetes care in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL)., Research Design and Methods: Medical resource use data and responses to the EuroQol 5-Dimension (EQ-5D) instrument were collected at baseline and throughout the trial. Medical resources and medications were assigned values by using U.S. Medicare payments and wholesale acquisition costs, respectively. Secondary analyses used English costs., Results: Patients were followed for an average of 3.3 years, during which time those randomized to EQW experienced 0.41 fewer inpatient days (7.05 vs. 7.46 days; relative rate ratio 0.91; P = 0.05). Rates of outpatient medical visits were similar, as were total inpatient and outpatient costs. Mean costs for nonstudy diabetes medications over the study period were ∼$1,600 lower with EQW than with placebo ( P = 0.01). Total within-study costs, excluding study medication, were lower in the EQW arm than in the placebo arm ($28,907 vs. $30,914; P ≤ 0.01). When including the estimated cost of EQW, total mean costs were significantly higher in the EQW group than in the placebo group ($42,697 vs. $30,914; P < 0.01). With English costs applied, mean total costs, including exenatide costs, were £1,670 higher in the EQW group than the placebo group (£10,874 vs. £9,204; P < 0.01). There were no significant differences in EQ-5D health utilities between arms over time., Conclusions: Medical costs were lower in the EQW arm than the placebo arm, but total costs were significantly higher once the cost of branded exenatide was incorporated., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: To evaluate the impact of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on microvascular and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes by baseline renal function in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL)., Research Design and Methods: Least squares mean difference (LSMD) in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from baseline between the EQW and placebo groups was calculated for 13,844 participants. Cox regression models were used to estimate effects by group on incident macroalbuminuria, retinopathy, and major adverse CV events (MACE). Interval-censored time-to-event models estimated effects on renal composite 1 (40% eGFR decline, renal replacement, or renal death) and renal composite 2 (composite 1 variables plus macroalbuminuria)., Results: EQW did not change eGFR significantly (LSMD 0.21 mL/min/1.73 m 2 [95% CI -0.27 to 0.70]). Macroalbuminuria occurred in 2.2% of patients in the EQW group and in 2.5% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.70-1.07]). Neither renal composite was reduced with EQW in unadjusted analyses, but renal composite 2 was reduced after adjustment (HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.74-0.98]). Retinopathy rates did not differ by treatment group or in the HbA 1c -lowering or prior retinopathy subgroups. CV outcomes in those with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 did not differ by group. Those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 had nominal risk reductions for MACE, all-cause mortality, and CV death, but interactions by renal function group were significant for only stroke (HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.58-0.93]; P for interaction = 0.035) and CV death (HR 1.08 [95% CI 0.85-1.38]; P for interaction = 0.031)., Conclusions: EQW had no impact on unadjusted retinopathy or renal outcomes. CV risk was modestly reduced only in those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 in analyses unadjusted for multiplicity., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs) have been shown to reduce incident type 2 diabetes but their impact on cardiovascular (CV) disease remains controversial. We sought to identify the overall impact of AGIs with respect to incident type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and CV outcomes in those with IGT or type 2 diabetes., Methods: We used PubMed and SCOPUS to identify randomized controlled trials reporting the incidence of type 2 diabetes and/or CV outcomes that had compared AGIs with placebo in populations with IGT or type 2 diabetes, with or without established CV disease. Eligible studies were required to have ≥ 500 participants and/or ≥ 100 endpoints of interest. Meta-analyses of available trial data were performed using random effects models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident type 2 diabetes and CV outcomes., Results: Of ten trials identified, three met our inclusion criteria for incident type 2 diabetes and four were eligible for CV outcomes. The overall HR (95% CI) comparing AGI with placebo for incident type 2 diabetes was 0.77 (0.67-0.88), p < 0.0001, and for CV outcomes was 0.98 (0.89-1.10), p = 0.85. There was little to no heterogeneity between studies, with I 2 values of 0.03% (p = 0.43) and 0% (p = 0.79) for the two outcomes respectively., Conclusions: Allocation of people with IGT to an AGI significantly reduced their risk of incident type 2 diabetes by 23%, whereas in those with IGT or type 2 diabetes the impact on CV outcomes was neutral.

Objective: Increases in serum calcitonin, a tumor marker for medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), have been associated with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use in some preclinical studies. We report calcitonin changes in exenatide-treated and placebo-administered participants and MTC incidence in the EXenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) and consider the impact of within-trial calcitonin monitoring., Research Design and Methods: EXSCEL participants were randomized 1:1 to once-weekly exenatide 2 mg or placebo. Serum calcitonin was measured at baseline (with trial medication discontinued if >40 ng/L) and annually thereafter (with trial medication discontinued if ≥50 ng/L). Median calcitonin concentrations were calculated at each time point, and thyroid malignancies were collected prospectively. Data regarding follow-up after an elevated calcitonin were collected retrospectively., Results: At baseline, 52 (30 exenatide and 22 placebo) participants had calcitonin >40 ng/L, and during follow-up an additional 23 participants (15 exenatide and 8 placebo) had calcitonin ≥50 ng/L in the intention-to-treat population. Median calcitonin concentrations were similar between treatment groups at baseline with no increase over time. Confirmed MTC occurred in three participants (2 exenatide and 1 placebo), all of whom had significantly elevated baseline calcitonin values (413, 422, and 655 ng/L)., Conclusions: During a median 3.2 years' follow-up, no change in serum calcitonin was seen with exenatide therapy. The three confirmed cases of MTC all occurred in participants with markedly elevated baseline calcitonin levels, measured prior to trial medication administration. Regular calcitonin monitoring identified no additional cases of MTC, suggesting no benefit of routine calcitonin monitoring during exenatide treatment., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Aims: There are few data available on the incremental benefits of risk factor modification in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We simulated the potential benefits of achieving lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) and LDL-cholesterol targets., Methods: We used the UKPDS Outcomes Model v2.0 to estimate 10-year event rates for complications using baseline data from 5717 participants with T2DM in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin Study. All risk factor values were held constant over 10 years. In separate analyses, different levels of SBP between 160 and 120 mm Hg and LDL-cholesterol between 5.0 and 1.0 mmol/l were imposed on the cohort. Cumulative relative risk reductions (CRRR) at each 10 mm Hg and 1.0 mmol/l decrements respectively were compared using Kruskal-Wallis tests., Results: CRRRs for each 10 mm Hg SBP decrement from 160 mm Hg were 2.2%, 4.5%, 7.0% and 10.0% for myocardial infarction (MI); 12.5%, 24.8%, 35.6% and 44.9% for stroke; 5.4%, 10.9%, 16.2% and 20.9% for blindness; 7.4%, 14.7%, 21.6% and 27.4% for amputation, respectively. CRRRs for each 1.0 mmol/l LDL-cholesterol decrement from 5.0 mmol/l were 16.9%, 30.8%, 41.2% & 51.0% for MI; 9.2%, 19.7%, 29.6% & 38.8% for stroke (p < 0.001 in all cases)., Conclusions: These simulated outcomes illustrate the potential benefits of targeting progressively lower SBP and LDL-cholesterol values., (Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The antiplatelet efficacy of aspirin (ASA) is reduced in type 2 diabetes (T2D). As the best ex vivo method of measuring ASA efficacy remains uncertain, we compared nine platelet function tests to assess responsiveness to three ASA dosing regimens in 24 T2D patients randomized in a three-treatment crossover design to ASA 100 mg/day, 200 mg/day, or 100 mg twice daily for 2-week treatment periods. Platelet function tests compared were as follows: light transmission aggregometry (LTA)-0.5 mg/mL of arachidonic acid (AA) and 10 µM adenosine diphosphate (ADP); multiplate whole blood aggregometry (WBA)-0.5 mM AA and 6.5 µM ADP; platelet function analyzer (PFA)-100™-collagen and ADP (CADP) and collagen and epinephrine (CEPI); VerifyNow™-ASA; and urinary 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 (TxB 2 ) and serum TxB 2 . All cyclo-oxygenase (COX-1)-dependent tests and some COX-1-independent tests (PFA-CEPI, LTA-ADP) demonstrated significant reductions in platelet reactivity with all ASA doses. Two COX-1-independent tests (WBA-ADP and PFA-CADP) showed no overall reduction in platelet reactivity. Overall classifications for detecting all ASA doses, compared to baseline, were as follows: very good-LTA-AA (k = 0.95) and VerifyNow™-ASA (k = 0.85); good-serum TxB 2 (k = 0.79); moderate-LTA-ADP (k = 0.59), PFA-100™-CEPI (k = 0.56), urinary TxB 2 (k = 0.55), WBA-AA (k = 0.47); and poor-PFA-100™-CADP (k = -0.02) and WBA-ADP (k = -0.07). No significant kappa statistic differences were seen for each test for each ASA dose. Correlations for each test with serum TxB 2 measurements were as follows: very good-VerifyNow™-ASA (k = 0.81, R 2  = 0.56) and LTA-AA (k = 0.85, R 2  = 0.65); good-PFA-100 TM -CEPI (k = 0.62, R 2  = 0.30); moderate-urinary TxB 2 (k = 0.57, R 2  = 0.51) and LTA-ADP (k = 0.47, R 2  = 0.56); fair-WBA-AA (k = 0.31, R 2  = 0.31); and poor-PFA-100™-CADP (k = 0.04, R 2  = 0.003) and WBA-ADP (k = -0.04, R 2  = 0.0005). The platelet function tests we assessed were not equally effective in measuring the antiplatelet effect of ASA and correlated poorly amongst themselves, but COX-1-dependent tests performed better than non-COX-1-dependent tests.

Aims: TECOS was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial assessing the impact of sitagliptin vs. placebo on cardiovascular outcomes when added to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes. We report the use of concomitant diabetes medications and the risk for progression to insulin during follow-up., Materials and Methods: TECOS enrolled 14 671 participants with HbA1c 6.5%-8.0% on monotherapy with metformin, pioglitazone, sulfonylurea (SU), or dual therapy with two oral agents or insulin with or without metformin. Subsequent diabetes management was by the participant's usual care physician. Time to initiation of insulin and risk of hypoglycaemia were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: The most common glucose-lowering regimens at baseline were metformin monotherapy (30.2%), SU monotherapy (8.5%), metformin/SU therapy (35.1%), and insulin with or without metformin (13.9% and 8.6%, respectively). Over a median 3.0 years' follow-up, diabetes therapy was intensified in 25.2% of participants (sitagliptin 22.0%, placebo 28.3%). Medications most commonly added were SU (8.3%) or insulin (8.8%). Insulin initiation in the usual care setting occurred at mean (standard deviation) HbA1c of 8.5 (1.5)%. Sitagliptin did not impact rates of severe hypoglycaemia, but delayed progression to insulin when added to metformin or metformin/SU regimens., Conclusion: Consistent with the trial's pragmatic design, TECOS participants underwent typical progression of diabetes medications. Sitagliptin was associated with lower HbA1c, without increased risk for severe hypoglycaemia and was associated with delayed progression to insulin when added to metformin with or without SU.

Background In the EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering), exenatide once-weekly resulted in a nonsignificant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events ( MACEs ) and a nominal 14% reduction in all-cause mortality in 14 752 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2 DM ) with and without cardiovascular disease. Whether patients at increased risk for events experienced a comparatively greater treatment benefit with exenatide is unknown. Methods and Results In the EXSCEL population, we created risk scores for MACEs and all-cause mortality using step-wise selection of baseline characteristics. A risk score was calculated for each patient, and a time-to-event model for each end point was developed including the risk score, treatment assignment, and risk-treatment interaction. Interaction P values evaluating for a differential treatment effect by baseline risk were reported. Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 2.2, 4.4), 1091 (7.4%) patients died and 1744 (11.8%) experienced a MACE . Independent predictors of MACEs and all-cause mortality included age, sex, comorbidities (eg, previous cardiovascular event), body mass index, blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The all-cause mortality and MACE risk models had modest discrimination with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.73 and 0.71, respectively. No interaction was observed between treatment effect and risk profile for either end point (both interactions, P>0.1). Conclusions Baseline characteristics (eg, age, previous cardiovascular events) and routine laboratory values (eg, hemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate) provided modest prognostic value for mortality and MACEs in a broad population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Exenatide's effects on mortality and MACEs were consistent across the spectrum of baseline risk. Clinical Trial Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 01144338.

Objective: Physical activity is related to clinical outcomes, even after adjusting for body mass, but is rarely assessed in randomized clinical trials., Research Design and Methods: We conducted an observational analysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research trial, in which a total of 9306 people from 40 countries with impaired glucose tolerance and either cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors were randomized to receive nateglinide or placebo, in a 2-by-2 factorial design with valsartan or placebo. All were asked to also participate in a detailed lifestyle modification programme and followed-up for a median of 6.4 years with progression to diabetes as a co-primary end point. Seven-day ambulatory activity was assessed at baseline using research-grade pedometers. We assessed whether the baseline amount of physical activity was related to subsequent development of diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance., Results: Pedometer data were obtained on 7118 participants and 35.0% developed diabetes. In an unadjusted analysis each 2000-step increment in the average number of daily steps, up to 10 000, was associated with a 5.5% lower risk of progression to diabetes (HR 0.95, 95%CI 0.92 to 0.97), with >6% relative risk reduction after adjustment., Conclusions: Physical activity should be measured objectively in pharmacologic trials as it is a significant but underappreciated contributor to diabetes outcomes. It should be a regular part of clinical practice as well., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TY: Research support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Leicester Biomedical Research Centre and the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, East Midlands. MAB: Research support from Merck Serono; attended advisory boards with Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, and Novo Nordisk. Her department has received research funding from Merck, Amylin, Lilly, and BMS. RRH: Research support from Amylin, Bayer, Merck, and Novartis; attended advisory boards with Amylin, Lilly, Merck, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk; and given lectures supported by Bayer, Lilly, Merck, and Novo Nordisk.

Background: The treatment of people with diabetes with metformin can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) and may reduce the risk of cancer. However, it is unknown whether or not metformin can reduce the risk of these outcomes in people with elevated blood glucose levels below the threshold for diabetes [i.e. non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH)]., Objective: To assess the feasibility of the Glucose Lowering In Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia Trial (GLINT) and to estimate the key parameters to inform the design of the full trial. These parameters include the recruitment strategy, randomisation, electronic data capture, postal drug distribution, retention, study medication adherence, safety monitoring and remote collection of outcome data., Design: A multicentre, individually randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, pragmatic, primary prevention trial. Participants were individually randomised on a 1 : 1 basis, blocked within each site., Setting: General practices and clinical research facilities in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Leicestershire., Participants: Males and females aged ≥ 40 years with NDH who had a high risk of CVD., Interventions: Prolonged-release metformin (500 mg) (Glucophage ® SR, Merck KGaA, Bedfont Cross, Middlesex, UK) or the matched placebo, up to three tablets per day, distributed by post., Main Outcome Measures: Recruitment rates; adherence to study medication; laboratory results at baseline and 3 and 6 months; reliability and acceptability of study drug delivery; questionnaire return rates; and quality of life., Results: We sent 5251 invitations, with 511 individuals consenting to participate. Of these, 249 were eligible and were randomised between March and November 2015 (125 to the metformin group and 124 to the placebo group). Participants were followed up for 0.99 years [standard deviation (SD) 0.30 years]. The use of electronic medical records to identify potentially eligible individuals in individual practices was resource intensive. Participants were generally elderly [mean age 70 years (SD 6.7 years)], overweight [mean body mass index 30.1 kg/m 2 (SD 4.5 kg/m 2 )] and male (88%), and the mean modelled 10-year CVD risk was 28.8% (SD 8.5%). Randomisation, postal delivery of the study drug and outcome assessment using registers/medical records were feasible and acceptable to participants. Most participants were able to take three tablets per day, but premature discontinuation of the study drug was common (≈30% of participants by 6 months), although there were no differences between the groups. All randomised participants returned questionnaires at baseline and 67% of participants returned questionnaires by the end of the study. There was no between-group difference in Short Form questionnaire-8 items or EuroQol-5 Dimensions scores. Compared with placebo, metformin was associated with small improvements in the mean glycated haemoglobin level [-0.82 mmol/mol, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.39 to -0.24 mmol/mol], mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (2.31 ml/minute/1.73 m 2 , 95% CI -0.2 to 4.81 ml/minute/1.73 m 2 ) and mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (-0.11 mmol/l, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.02 mmol/l) and a reduction in mean plasma vitamin B 12 level (-16.4 ng/l, 95% CI -32.9 to -0.01 ng/l). There were 35 serious adverse events (13 in the placebo group, 22 in the metformin group), with none deemed to be treatment related., Limitations: Changes to sponsorship reduced the study duration, the limited availability of information in medical records reduced recruitment efficiency and discontinuation of study medication exceeded forecasts., Conclusions: A large, pragmatic trial comparing the effects of prolonged-release metformin and placebo on the risk of CVD events is potentially feasible. However, changes to the study design and conduct are recommended to enable an efficient scaling up of the trial. Recommendations include changing the inclusion criteria to recruit people with pre-existing CVD to increase the recruitment and event rates, using large primary/secondary care databases to increase recruitment rates, conducting follow-up remotely to improve efficiency and including a run-in period prior to randomisation to optimise trial adherence., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN34875079., Funding: The project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 22, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Merck KGaA provided metformin and matching placebo., Competing Interests: Kamlesh Khunti received honoraria and research grants from AstraZeneca plc, Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd, Novo Nordisk Ltd, Sanofi S.A., Eli Lilly and Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Janssen Research and Development, Boehringer Ingelheim Ltd and Roche Diagnostics Ltd. He has acted as an advisor to the NHS Health Check programme, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Guidance and the Diabetes Prevention Programme External Reference Group. M Angelyn Bethel reports non-financial support from Merck Serono during the conduct of the study. Outside the submitted work, she received grants from Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. and AstraZeneca, acted as an advisory board member for AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim and Novo Nordisk, as a speaker for Sanofi and received non-financial support from Bayer plc. Rury R Holman reports ACE (Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation) trial funding and lecture fees from Bayer, trial funding from AstraZeneca and Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. and lecture fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. He acted as an advisory board member for Merck, Sharp & Dohme, Elcelyx Therapeutics, Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK, Novo Nordisk and Servier Laboratories Ltd. Melanie Davies has acted as a consultant, advisory board member and speaker for Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly and Company, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca and Janssen Research and Development, as an advisory board member for Servier Laboratories and as a speaker for Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation and Takeda Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. She has received grants in support of investigator and investigator-initiated trials from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly and Company, Boehringer Ingelheim and Janssen Research and Development. She has acted as an advisor to the NHS Health Check programme and the NICE Guidance and is Director of a National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Centre and a Clinical Trials Unit. John R Petrie reports personal fees from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and Company, Janssen Research and Development and Boehringer Ingelheim, grants, personal fees and non-financial support from Sanofi, non-financial support from Merck KGaA and Itamar Medical Ltd, grants from the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Ltd and grants and personal fees from Quintiles (now IQVIA), outside the submitted work. Martin Rutter reports grants from Novo Nordisk, outside the submitted work. He owns stocks and shares in GlaxoSmithKline plc and acted as an advisory board member for Roche Diagnostics Ltd. Naveed Sattar reports personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen Research and Development, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and Company and grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work. Simon J Griffin reports receiving an honorarium and reimbursement of travel expenses from Eli Lilly and Company, associated with membership of an Independent Data Monitoring Committee for a randomised trial of a medication to lower glucose levels, and an honorarium from Janssen Research and Development for speaking at an educational meeting in 2015.

Background: Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists are effective glucose-lowering drugs. Findings from cardiovascular outcome trials showed cardiovascular safety of GLP-1 receptor agonists, but results for cardiovascular efficacy were varied. We aimed to examine overall cardiovascular efficacy for lixisenatide, liraglutide, semaglutide, and extended-release exenatide., Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we analysed data from eligible trials that assessed the safety and efficacy of GLP-1 receptor agonists compared with placebo in adult patients (aged 18 years or older) with type 2 diabetes and had a primary outcome including, but not limited to, cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke. We searched PubMed and MEDLINE without language restrictions up to Sept 18, 2017, for eligible trials. We did a meta-analysis of available trial data using a random-effects model to calculate overall hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular efficacy outcomes and odds ratios for key safety outcomes., Findings: Of 12 articles identified in our search and screened for eligibility, four trials of cardiovascular outcomes of GLP-1 receptor agonists were identified: ELIXA (lixisenatide), LEADER (liraglutide), SUSTAIN 6 (semaglutide), and EXSCEL (extended-release exenatide). Compared with placebo, GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment showed a significant 10% relative risk reduction in the three-point major adverse cardiovascular event primary outcome (cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke; HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; p=0·033), a 13% RRR in cardiovascular mortality (0·87, 0·79-0·96; p=0·007), and a 12% relative risk reduction in all-cause mortality (0·88, 0·81-0·95; p=0·002), with low-to-moderate between-trial statistical heterogeneity. No significant effect of GLP-1 receptor agonists was identified on fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal stroke, hospital admission for unstable angina, or hospital admission for heart failure. Overall, no significant differences were seen in severe hypoglycaemia, pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, or medullary thyroid cancer reported between GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment and placebo., Interpretation: Our findings show cardiovascular safety across all GLP-1 receptor agonist cardiovascular outcome trials and suggest that drugs in this class can reduce three-point major adverse cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality risk, albeit to varying degrees for individual drugs, without significant safety concerns. GLP-1 receptor agonists have a favourable risk-benefit balance overall, which should allow the choice of drug to be individualised to each patient's needs., Funding: Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AstraZeneca)., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)