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8. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis:A large multicentre study

Author

Kuhle, J, Disanto, G, Dobson, R, Adiutori, R, Bianchi, L, Topping, J, Bestwick, J P, Meier, U-C, Marta, M, Dalla Costa, G, Runia, T, Evdoshenko, E, Lazareva, N, Thouvenot, E, Iaffaldano, P, Direnzo, V, Khademi, M, Piehl, F, Comabella, M, Sombekke, M, Killestein, J, Hegen, H, Rauch, S, D'Alfonso, S, Alvarez-Cermeño, J C, Kleinová, P, Horáková, D, Roesler, R, Lauda, F, Llufriu, S, Avsar, T, Uygunoglu, U, Altintas, A, Saip, S, Menge, T, Rajda, C, Bergamaschi, R, Moll, N, Khalil, M, Marignier, R, Dujmovic, I, Larsson, H, Malmestrom, C, Scarpini, E, Fenoglio, C, Wergeland, S, Laroni, A, Annibali, V, Romano, S, Martínez, A D, Carra, A, Salvetti, M, Uccelli, A, Torkildsen, Ø, Myhr, K M, Galimberti, D, Rejdak, K, Lycke, J, Fredriksen, Jette Lautrup, Drulovic, J, Confavreux, C, Brassat, D, Enzinger, C, Fuchs, S, Bosca, I, Pelletier, J, Picard, C, Colombo, E, Franciotta, D, Derfuss, T, Lindberg, Rlp, Yaldizli, Ö, Vécsei, L, Kieseier, B C, Hartung, H P, Villoslada, P, Siva, A, Saiz, A, Tumani, H, Havrdová, E, Villar, L M, Leone, M, Barizzone, N, Deisenhammer, F, Teunissen, C, Montalban, X, Tintoré, M, Olsson, T, Trojano, M, Lehmann, S, Castelnovo, G, Lapin, S, Hintzen, R, Kappos, L, Furlan, R, Martinelli, V, Comi, G, Ramagopalan, S V, Giovannoni, G, Kuhle, J, Disanto, G, Dobson, R, Adiutori, R, Bianchi, L, Topping, J, Bestwick, J P, Meier, U-C, Marta, M, Dalla Costa, G, Runia, T, Evdoshenko, E, Lazareva, N, Thouvenot, E, Iaffaldano, P, Direnzo, V, Khademi, M, Piehl, F, Comabella, M, Sombekke, M, Killestein, J, Hegen, H, Rauch, S, D'Alfonso, S, Alvarez-Cermeño, J C, Kleinová, P, Horáková, D, Roesler, R, Lauda, F, Llufriu, S, Avsar, T, Uygunoglu, U, Altintas, A, Saip, S, Menge, T, Rajda, C, Bergamaschi, R, Moll, N, Khalil, M, Marignier, R, Dujmovic, I, Larsson, H, Malmestrom, C, Scarpini, E, Fenoglio, C, Wergeland, S, Laroni, A, Annibali, V, Romano, S, Martínez, A D, Carra, A, Salvetti, M, Uccelli, A, Torkildsen, Ø, Myhr, K M, Galimberti, D, Rejdak, K, Lycke, J, Fredriksen, Jette Lautrup, Drulovic, J, Confavreux, C, Brassat, D, Enzinger, C, Fuchs, S, Bosca, I, Pelletier, J, Picard, C, Colombo, E, Franciotta, D, Derfuss, T, Lindberg, Rlp, Yaldizli, Ö, Vécsei, L, Kieseier, B C, Hartung, H P, Villoslada, P, Siva, A, Saiz, A, Tumani, H, Havrdová, E, Villar, L M, Leone, M, Barizzone, N, Deisenhammer, F, Teunissen, C, Montalban, X, Tintoré, M, Olsson, T, Trojano, M, Lehmann, S, Castelnovo, G, Lapin, S, Hintzen, R, Kappos, L, Furlan, R, Martinelli, V, Comi, G, Ramagopalan, S V, and Giovannoni, G

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort.METHODS: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS.RESULTS: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres.CONCLUSIONS: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.

Published
2015

9. Genetic comorbidities in Parkinson's disease

Author

Nalls, M. A., Saad, M., Noyce, A. J., Keller, M. F., Schrag, A., Bestwick, J. P., Traynor, B. J., Gibbs, J. R., Hernandez, D. G., Cookson, M. R., Morris, H. R., Williams, N., Gasser, T., Heutink, P., Wood, N., Hardy, J., Martinez, M., Singleton, A. B., Jankowski, Janusz, Nalls, M. A., Saad, M., Noyce, A. J., Keller, M. F., Schrag, A., Bestwick, J. P., Traynor, B. J., Gibbs, J. R., Hernandez, D. G., Cookson, M. R., Morris, H. R., Williams, N., Gasser, T., Heutink, P., Wood, N., Hardy, J., Martinez, M., Singleton, A. B., and Jankowski, Janusz

Abstract

Parkinson's disease (PD) has a number of known genetic risk factors. Clinical and epidemiological studies have suggested the existence of intermediate factors that may be associated with additional risk of PD. We construct genetic risk profiles for additional epidemiological and clinical factors using known genome-wide association studies (GWAS) loci related to these specific phenotypes to estimate genetic comorbidity in a systematic review. We identify genetic risk profiles based on GWAS variants associated with schizophrenia and Crohn's disease as significantly associated with risk of PD. Conditional analyses adjusting for SNPs near loci associated with PD and schizophrenia or PD and Crohn's disease suggest that spatially overlapping loci associated with schizophrenia and PD account for most of the shared comorbidity, while variation outside of known proximal loci shared by PD and Crohn's disease accounts for their shared genetic comorbidity. We examine brain methylation and expression signatures proximal to schizophrenia and Crohn's disease loci to infer functional changes in the brain associated with the variants contributing to genetic comorbidity. We compare our results with a systematic review of epidemiological literature, while the findings are dissimilar to a degree; marginal genetic associations corroborate the directionality of associations across genetic and epidemiological data. We show a strong genetically defined level of comorbidity between PD and Crohn's disease as well as between PD and schizophrenia, with likely functional consequences of associated variants occurring in brain.

Published
2014

10. Serum neurofilament light chain is a biomarker of human spinal cord injury severity and outcome

Author

Kuhle, J., primary, Gaiottino, J., additional, Leppert, D., additional, Petzold, A., additional, Bestwick, J. P., additional, Malaspina, A., additional, Lu, C.-H., additional, Dobson, R., additional, Disanto, G., additional, Norgren, N., additional, Nissim, A., additional, Kappos, L., additional, Hurlbert, J., additional, Yong, V. W., additional, Giovannoni, G., additional, and Casha, S., additional

Published
2014
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18. Erratum

Author

Barnes, I M, primary, Bestwick, J P, additional, and Larsen, S O, additional

Published
2008
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20. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study.

Author

Kuhle, J., Disanto, G., Dobson, R., Adiutori, R., Bianchi, L., Topping, J., Bestwick, J. P., Meier, U-C., Marta, M., Dalla Costa, G., Runia, T., Evdoshenko, E., Lazareva, N., Thouvenot, E., Iaffaldano, P., Direnzo, V., Khademi, M., Piehl, F., Comabella, M., and Sombekke, M.

Subjects
MULTIPLE sclerosis, CEREBROSPINAL fluid, EPSTEIN-Barr virus, VITAMIN D, CYTOMEGALOVIRUSES, COTININE, PRECANCEROUS conditions
Abstract

Background and objective: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. Methods: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. Results: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. Conclusions: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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23. Pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A truncation limits in antenatal screening for trisomy 18.

Author

Bestwick, J. P., Huttly, W. J., and Wald, N. J.

Subjects
*TRISOMY 18 syndrome, *DIAGNOSTIC errors, *MEDICAL screening, *PREGNANCY proteins, *PRENATAL diagnosis, *DIAGNOSIS
Abstract

Upper and lower truncation limits are commonly applied to quantitative markers used in medical screening tests. We here examine data on 375 trisomy 18 and 522,081 unaffected singleton pregnancies, to determine if the lower truncation limit should be set below the previously specified 0.2 multiples of the median. A lower truncation limit of 0.15 would reduce the underestimation of the risk of having a trisomy 18 pregnancy in about 50% of affected pregnancies and would lead to an estimated 10 percentage point increase in the detection rate, with only a very small increase in the false-positive rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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24. Multivariate clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) risk factor study: towards individual prognosis and treatment indication in CIS

Author

Kuhle, J., Dobson, R., Bestwick, J. P., Topping, J., Dalla Costa, G., Khademi, M., Sombekke, M., Killestein, J., Evdoshenko, E., Lazareva, N., Runia, T., Zbornikova, P., Horakova, D., D Alfonso, S., Thouvenot, E., Moll, N., Hegen, H., Rauch, S., Khalil, M., Fuchs, S., Lindberg, R. L. P., Derfuss, T., Sara Llufriu, Franciotta, D., Roesler, R., Lauda, F., Rajda, C., Drulovic, J., Menge, T., Kieseier, B. C., Avsar, T., Marignier, R., Malmestrom, C., Myhr, K. M., Wergeland, S., Annibali, V., Romano, S., Carra, A., Laroni, A., Frederiksen, J. L., Larsson, H. B., Uccelli, A., Martinez, A. D., Salvetti, M., Torkildsen, O., Lycke, J., Confavreux, C., Rejdak, K., Bosca, I., Brassat, D., Scarpini, E., Fenoglio, C., Galimberti, D., Siva, A., Hartung, H. P., Dujmovic, I., Vecsei, L., Tumani, H., Bergamaschi, R., Colombo, E., Villoslada, P., Saiz, A., Enzinger, C., Kappos, L., Deisenhammer, F., Alvarez-Cermeno, J. C., Villar, L., Pelletier, J., Lehmann, S., Castelnovo, G., Barizzone, N., Leone, M., Havrdova, E., Trojano, M., Iaffaldano, P., Direnzo, V., Comabella, M., Tintore, M., Montalban, X., Hintzen, R., Lapin, S., Teunissen, C., Piehl, F., Olsson, T., Furlan, R., Martinelli, V., Comi, G., Ramagopalan, S., and Giovannoni, G.

26. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study

Author

Ruth Dobson, P. Kleinova, Tessel F. Runia, H.-P. Hartung, Maria Trojano, A.D. Martinez, Viviana Annibali, Sreeram V. Ramagopalan, Florian Deisenhammer, Mohsen Khademi, Jens Kuhle, Jan Lycke, Mar Tintoré, Ludwig Kappos, Pietro Iaffaldano, Antonio Uccelli, Dana Horakova, Kjell-Morten Myhr, Cecilia Rajda, Konrad Rejdak, Stig Wergeland, Monica Marta, Roberto Furlan, Florian Lauda, Jean Pelletier, Romain Marignier, G. Comi, Giulio Disanto, Romy Roesler, Vita Direnzo, Özgür Yaldizli, N. Moll, Silvia Romano, Sergey V. Lapin, Sylvain Lehmann, Irena Dujmovic, Elio Scarpini, Tomas Olsson, Rogier Q. Hintzen, Raija L.P. Lindberg, E. P. Evdoshenko, Siegrid Fuchs, B. C. Kieseier, Henrik Larsson, Eric Thouvenot, Jonathan P. Bestwick, Maurizio Leone, László Vécsei, S. Saip, Pablo Villoslada, Roberto Bergamaschi, Xavier Montalban, Øivind Torkildsen, José C. Álvarez-Cermeño, Joanne Topping, Albert Saiz, Isabel Bosca, Hayrettin Tumani, Adriana Carrá, Joep Killestein, Sara Llufriu, N. Barizzone, Ute-Christiane Meier, Diego Franciotta, David Brassat, Christian Enzinger, Michael Khalil, Gavin Giovannoni, Timucin Avsar, Scott L. Rauch, Aksel Siva, N. Lazareva, Clas Malmeström, Jette L. Frederiksen, Harald Hegen, Ugur Uygunoglu, Luisa M. Villar, Lucia Bianchi, Marco Salvetti, Tobias Derfuss, Giovanni Castelnovo, Ayse Altintas, Rocco Adiutori, E. Colombo, G. Dalla Costa, Daniela Galimberti, Madeleine H. Sombekke, Vittorio Martinelli, Sandra D'Alfonso, Manuel Comabella, Eva Havrdova, Fredrik Piehl, Charlotte E. Teunissen, Til Menge, Jelena Drulovic, C. Picard, Alice Laroni, Christian Confavreux, Chiara Fenoglio, Neurology, Laboratory Medicine, NCA - Neuroinflamation, Direction des Applications Militaires (DAM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Department of Anatomy and Structural Biology Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine [New York], Department of public health, University of Turin, Cellules souches normales et cancéreuses, Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Neuropsychiatrie : recherche épidémiologique et clinique (PSNREC), Institut de Génomique Fonctionnelle (IGF), Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Water Environment Technology, Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], Department of Neurology, A.O.U. Maggiore della Carità, and IRCAD, Novara, Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB), Leibniz Association, Department of Neurology, University of California [San Francisco] (UCSF), University of California-University of California, Center for Neuroimmunology, Service of Neurology, Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Université européenne de Bretagne - European University of Brittany (UEB), Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système (IMS), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Azm Center for Biotechnology Research, Agence universitaire de la Francophonie (Beyrouth, Lebanon)-Lebanese University [Beirut] (LU), FOI, Linköping University (LIU), Centro Dino Ferrari [Milano], Università degli Studi di Milano [Milano] (UNIMI)-Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda - Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, IRMP-Louvain, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Techniques de l'Ingénierie Médicale et de la Complexité - Informatique, Mathématiques et Applications, Grenoble - UMR 5525 (TIMC-IMAG), VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF), Dipartimento Ingegneria Aerospaziale 'Lucio Lazzarino' (DIA), University of Pisa - Università di Pisa, International Centre for Hydrology 'Dino Tonini' and Dipartimento IMAGE, Universita degli Studi di Padova, Dept. of Neurology, University Hospital Rigshospitalet, University of California [Berkeley], University of California, Centre de Recherche en Acquisition et Traitement de l'Image pour la Santé (CREATIS), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Department of Immunology, The Weizmann Institute, Anthropologie bio-culturelle, Droit, Ethique et Santé (ADES), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-EFS ALPES MEDITERRANEE-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Etablissement Français du Sang - Alpes-Méditerranée (EFS - Alpes-Méditerranée), Etablissement Français du Sang, Laboratory of Neuroimmunology, IRCCS, Neurological Institute 'C. Mondino', University of Pavia, Pa, University of Pavia, Department of Neurology, Albert Szent-Gyorgyi Clinical Centre, University of Szeged [Szeged], Heinrich Heine Universität Düsseldorf = Heinrich Heine University [Düsseldorf], Centre de résonance magnétique biologique et médicale (CRMBM), Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universitat de Barcelona (UB)-Hospital Clinic, University of Ulm, Department of Neurology, Service Anesthésie et Réanimation [Hôpital Nord - APHM], Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)- Hôpital Nord [CHU - APHM], University of Eastern Piedmont, Department of Medical Sciences, IRCAD, Novara, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital [Barcelona], Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Institut de recherche en biothérapie (IRB), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] (CHRU Montpellier)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Hôpital Universitaire de Bâle, Laboratory of Molecular Virology, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Institute of Experimental Neurology, Division of Neuroscience, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], Blizard Institute of Cell and Molecular Science, Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille (APHM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [San Francisco] (UC San Francisco), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI)-Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda - Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua (Unipd), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Università degli Studi di Pavia = University of Pavia (UNIPV), University of Oxford, Direction des Applications Militaires ( DAM ), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ), National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton [Southampton], Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Université Montpellier 1 ( UM1 ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), Neuropsychiatrie : recherche épidémiologique et clinique, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Leibniz-Institute, University of California [San Francisco] ( UCSF ), Université européenne de Bretagne ( UEB ), Laboratoire de l'intégration, du matériau au système ( IMS ), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Agence universitaire de la Francophonie (Beyrouth, Lebanon)-Lebanese University [Beirut], Linköping University ( LIU ), Department of Neurological Sciences, Dino Ferrari Center, University of Milan, Fondazione Cà Granda, IRCCS Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy, Università di Bologna [Bologna] ( UNIBO ), Techniques de l'Ingénierie Médicale et de la Complexité - Informatique, Mathématiques et Applications [Grenoble] ( TIMC-IMAG ), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 ( UJF ) -Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology ( Grenoble INP ) -IMAG-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université Grenoble Alpes ( UGA ), Dipartimento Ingegneria Aerospaziale 'Lucio Lazzarino' ( DIA ), Università di Pisa, Universita degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua = Université de Padoue, Educational Testing Service, Graduate School of Education, University of California at Berkeley, Centre de Recherche en Acquisition et Traitement de l'Image pour la Santé ( CREATIS ), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( UCBL ), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon ( INSA Lyon ), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ) -Institut National des Sciences Appliquées ( INSA ) -Hospices Civils de Lyon ( HCL ) -Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] ( UJM ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Anthropologie bio-culturelle, Droit, Ethique et Santé ( ADES ), Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -EFS ALPES MEDITERRANEE-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Etablissement Français du Sang - Alpes-Méditerranée ( EFS - Alpes-Méditerranée ), Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf [Düsseldorf], Centre de résonance magnétique biologique et médicale ( CRMBM ), Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille ( APHM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Universitat de Barcelona ( UB ) -Hospital Clinic, Hôpital Nord [CHU - APHM]-Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Marseille ( APHM ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ), Institut de recherche en biothérapie ( IRB ), Université Montpellier 1 ( UM1 ) -Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] ( CHRU Montpellier ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles] ( ULB ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), Kuhle, J., Disanto, G., Dobson, R., Adiutori, R., Bianchi, L., Topping, J., Bestwick, J. P., Meier, U. -C., Marta, M., Dalla Costa, G, Runia, T., Evdoshenko, E., Lazareva, N., Thouvenot, E., Iaffaldano, P., Direnzo, V., Khademi, M., Piehl, F., Comabella, M., Sombekke, M., Killestein, J., Hegen, H., Rauch, S., Dalfonso, S., Alvarez-Cermeno, J. C., Kleinova, P., Horakova, D., Roesler, R., Lauda, F., Llufriu, S., Avsar, T., Uygunoglu, U., Altintas, A., Saip, S., Menge, T., Rajda, C., Bergamaschi, R., Moll, N., Khalil, M., Marignier, R., Dujmovic, I., Larsson, H., Malmestrom, C., Scarpini, E., Fenoglio, C., Wergeland, S., Laroni, A., Annibali, V., Romano, S., Martinez, A. D., Carra, A., Salvetti, M., Uccelli, A., Torkildsen, O., Myhr, K. M., Galimberti, D., Rejdak, K., Lycke, J., Frederiksen, J. L., Drulovic, J., Confavreux, C., Brassat, D., Enzinger, C., Fuchs, S., Bosca, I., Pelletier, J., Picard, C., Colombo, E., Franciotta, D., Derfuss, T., Lindberg, R. L. P., Yaldizli, O., Vecsei, L., Kieseier, B. C., Hartung, H. P., Villoslada, P., Siva, A., Saiz, A., Tumani, H., Havrdova, E., Villar, L. M., Leone, M., Barizzone, N., Deisenhammer, F., Teunissen, C., Montalban, X., Tintore, M., Olsson, T., Trojano, M., Lehmann, S., Castelnovo, G., Lapin, S., Hintzen, R., Kappos, L., Furlan, R., Martinelli, V., Comi, G., Ramagopalan, S. V., and Giovannoni, G.

Subjects
Male, Pathology, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), [SHS.ANTHRO-BIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Biological anthropology, Gastroenterology, Cohort Studies, chemistry.chemical_compound, 0302 clinical medicine, sclerosis, clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), Vitamin D, 0303 health sciences, Clinically isolated syndrome, Nuclear Proteins, Prognosis, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Neurology, Clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS), Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1), oligoclonal bands (OCBs), Predictive value of tests, Cohort, Disease Progression, Female, Cohort study, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, Multiple Sclerosis, clinic study, Risk Assessment, 03 medical and health sciences, Predictive Value of Tests, Internal medicine, medicine, Vitamin D and neurology, Humans, Survival analysis, 030304 developmental biology, business.industry, Multiple sclerosis, Oligoclonal Bands, Endonucleases, medicine.disease, Survival Analysis, chemistry, Immunoglobulin G, [ SHS.ANTHRO-BIO ] Humanities and Social Sciences/Biological anthropology, Neurology (clinical), business, Cotinine, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Follow-Up Studies
Abstract

Background and objective: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. Methods: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years’ follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. Results: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71–2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52–2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04–3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98–0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. Conclusions: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.

Published
2015

27. The effect of the Montgomery judgment on settled claims against the National Health Service due to failure to inform before giving consent to treatment.

Author

Wald DS, Bestwick JP, and Kelly P

Subjects
Humans, Informed Consent, Judgment, Malpractice, State Medicine
Abstract

Background: A landmark legal judgment in March 2015 (Montgomery) changed the test for determining negligence due to failing to inform patients before consent, by moving away from asking what a reasonable doctor should disclose and asking instead what a reasonable patient would expect to know., Aim: We sought to determine the effect Montgomery has had on settled claims due to failure to inform compared with claims for other reasons and whether legal firms are adding contributory claims of failure to inform to other principal allegations of negligence., Methods: A Freedom of Information request to NHS Resolution provided data on the number of settled claims against the NHS (2005-19) for any cause and where failure to inform before consent was the principal or contributory cause. Time-series regression was used to compare trends before and after 31 March 2015., Results: The trend in claims/year increased 4-fold for failure to inform (an increase of 9.8/year before 2015 vs. 39.5/year after 2015, P < 0.01), 2.7-fold when failure to inform was the principal cause (7.9/year vs. 21.2/year, P = 0.02) and 9.9-fold as a contributory cause (1.9/year vs. 18.3/year, P < 0.01). There was no material difference in claims due to other causes (334/year vs. 318/year, P = 0.84)., Conclusions: Montgomery has led to a substantial increase in settled claims of failure to inform before consent, with no coincident change in claims for other causes. The increase in contributory compared with principal causes suggests that lawyers are using the judgment to increase the chances of a successful claim against the NHS., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Published
2020
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28. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study.

Author

Kuhle J, Disanto G, Dobson R, Adiutori R, Bianchi L, Topping J, Bestwick JP, Meier UC, Marta M, Dalla Costa G, Runia T, Evdoshenko E, Lazareva N, Thouvenot E, Iaffaldano P, Direnzo V, Khademi M, Piehl F, Comabella M, Sombekke M, Killestein J, Hegen H, Rauch S, D'Alfonso S, Alvarez-Cermeño JC, Kleinová P, Horáková D, Roesler R, Lauda F, Llufriu S, Avsar T, Uygunoglu U, Altintas A, Saip S, Menge T, Rajda C, Bergamaschi R, Moll N, Khalil M, Marignier R, Dujmovic I, Larsson H, Malmestrom C, Scarpini E, Fenoglio C, Wergeland S, Laroni A, Annibali V, Romano S, Martínez AD, Carra A, Salvetti M, Uccelli A, Torkildsen Ø, Myhr KM, Galimberti D, Rejdak K, Lycke J, Frederiksen JL, Drulovic J, Confavreux C, Brassat D, Enzinger C, Fuchs S, Bosca I, Pelletier J, Picard C, Colombo E, Franciotta D, Derfuss T, Lindberg R, Yaldizli Ö, Vécsei L, Kieseier BC, Hartung HP, Villoslada P, Siva A, Saiz A, Tumani H, Havrdová E, Villar LM, Leone M, Barizzone N, Deisenhammer F, Teunissen C, Montalban X, Tintoré M, Olsson T, Trojano M, Lehmann S, Castelnovo G, Lapin S, Hintzen R, Kappos L, Furlan R, Martinelli V, Comi G, Ramagopalan SV, and Giovannoni G

Subjects
Adult, Cohort Studies, Disease Progression, Endonucleases, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Immunoglobulin G analysis, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Multiple Sclerosis cerebrospinal fluid, Nuclear Proteins analysis, Oligoclonal Bands genetics, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Risk Assessment, Survival Analysis, Vitamin D blood, Multiple Sclerosis pathology
Abstract

Background and Objective: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort., Methods: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS., Results: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres., Conclusions: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation., (© The Author(s), 2015.)

Published
2015
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29. Presentation of meta-analysis plots.

Author

Wald NJ and Bestwick JP

Subjects
Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Prenatal Diagnosis methods, Biomarkers analysis, Down Syndrome diagnosis, Inhibins analysis, Meta-Analysis as Topic
Abstract

Meta-analysis (forest) plots are widely used to show the results from multiple individual randomized trials or observational studies that address the same question, including the assessment of screening markers. They show the between study spread of results and provide a summary estimate of the results from all the studies combined. We here illustrate the advantage of ordering study results by the magnitude of the effect and including a vertical shaded band encompassing the summary 95% confidence interval of the summary estimate to emphasize the uncertainty of the estimate in a way that is more prominent than only displaying a "diamond" around its value., (© The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.)

Published
2015
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30. Is the area under an ROC curve a valid measure of the performance of a screening or diagnostic test?

Author

Wald NJ and Bestwick JP

Subjects
Area Under Curve, Diagnostic Tests, Routine standards, False Positive Reactions, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Normal Distribution, ROC Curve, Reproducibility of Results, Diagnostic Tests, Routine methods, Mass Screening methods
Abstract

Objectives: The area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (the AUC) is used as a measure of the performance of a screening or diagnostic test. We here assess the validity of the AUC., Methods: Assuming the test results follow Gaussian distributions in affected and unaffected individuals, standard mathematical formulae were used to describe the relationship between the detection rate (DR) (or sensitivity) and the false-positive rate (FPR) of a test with the AUC. These formulae were used to calculate the screening performance (DR for a given FPR, or FPR for a given DR) for different AUC values according to different standard deviations of the test result in affected and unaffected individuals., Results: The DR for a given FPR is strongly dependent on relative differences in the standard deviation of the test variable in affected and unaffected individuals. Consequently, two tests with the same AUC can have a different DR for the same FPR. For example, an AUC of 0.75 has a DR of 24% for a 5% FPR if the standard deviations are the same in affected and unaffected individuals, but 39% for the same 5% FPR if the standard deviation in affected individuals is 1.5 times that in unaffected individuals., Conclusion: The AUC is an unreliable measure of screening performance because in practice the standard deviation of a screening or diagnostic test in affected and unaffected individuals can differ. The problem is avoided by not using AUC at all, and instead specifying DRs for given FPRs or FPRs for given DRs.

Published
2014
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31. Anomalous marker patterns in Down syndrome screening.

Author

Wald NJ, Bestwick JP, Barnes IM, and Kellner LH

Subjects
Adult, Biomarkers blood, Down Syndrome blood, False Positive Reactions, Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Prenatal Diagnosis statistics & numerical data, Risk Assessment methods, Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data, Down Syndrome diagnosis, Mass Screening methods, Prenatal Diagnosis methods
Published
2007
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