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Author(s): Andria Mousa 1,*, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg 2, Hayley A. Thompson 3, R. Matthew Chico 1, Khalid B. Beshir 1, Colin J. Sutherland 1, David Schellenberg 1, Roly Gosling 1,4, Michael [...], Background Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings. Methods and findings We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common. Conclusions These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Background Recent cases of clinical failure in malaria patients in the United Kingdom (UK) treated with artemether-lumefantrine have implications for malaria chemotherapy worldwide. Methods Parasites were isolated from an index case of confirmed Plasmodium falciparum treatment failure after standard treatment, and from comparable travel-acquired UK malaria cases. Drug susceptibility in vitro and genotypes at 6 resistance-associated loci were determined for all parasite isolates and compared with clinical outcomes for each parasite donor. Results A traveler, who returned to the UK from Uganda in 2022 with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, twice failed treatment with full courses of artemether-lumefantrine. Parasites from the patient exhibited significantly reduced susceptibility to artemisinin (ring-stage survival, 17.3% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 13.6%–21.1%]; P <.0001) and lumefantrine (effective concentration preventing 50% of growth = 259.4 nM [95% CI, 130.6–388.2 nM]; P =.001). Parasite genotyping identified an allele of pfk13 encoding both the A675V variant in the Pfk13 propeller domain and a novel L145V nonpropeller variant. In vitro susceptibility testing of 6 other P. falciparum lines of Ugandan origin identified reduced susceptibility to artemisinin and lumefantrine in 1 additional line, also from a 2022 treatment failure case. These parasites did not harbor a pfk13 propeller domain variant but rather the novel nonpropeller variant T349I. Variant alleles of pfubp1 , pfap2mu , and pfcoronin were also identified among the 7 parasite lines. Conclusions We confirm, in a documented case of artemether-lumefantrine treatment failure imported from Uganda, the presence of pfk13 mutations encoding L145V and A675V. Parasites with reduced susceptibility to both artemisinin and lumefantrine may be emerging in Uganda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Artemisinin-based combination therapy, currently considered the therapy of choice for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic countries, may be under threat from newly emerging parasite resistance to the artemisinin family of drugs. Studies in Southeast Asia suggest some patients exhibit an extended parasite clearance time in the three days immediately following treatment with artesunate monotherapy. This phenotype is likely to become a more important trial endpoint in studies of anti-malarial drug efficacy, but currently requires frequent, closely spaced blood sampling in hospitalized study participants, followed by quantitation of parasite density by microscopy. Methods A simple duplex quantitative PCR method was developed in which distinct fluorescent signals are generated from the human and parasite DNA components in each blood sample. The human amplification target in this assay is the β tubulin gene, and the parasite target is the unique methionine tRNA gene (pgmet), which exhibits perfect sequence identity in all six Plasmodium species that naturally infect humans. In a small series of malaria cases treated as hospital in-patients, the abundance of pgmet DNA was estimated relative to the human DNA target in daily peripheral blood samples, and parasite clearance times calculated. Results The qPCR assay was reproducibly able to replicate parasite density estimates derived from microscopy, but provided additional data by quantification of parasite density 24 hours after the last positive blood film. Robust estimates of parasite clearance times were produced for a series of patients with clinical malaria. Conclusions Large studies, particularly in Africa where children represent a major proportion of treated cases, will require a simpler blood sample collection regime, and a method capable of high throughput. The duplex qPCR method tested may fulfil these criteria, and should now be evaluated in such field studies.