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Observations have confirmed basal melt rates of up to 16 m a-1 underneath the Shirase ice tongue in East Antarctica. These high basal melt rates are caused by intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf, a mechanism responsible for widespread mass loss in West Antarctica, together with parts of Wilkes Land. In contrast to those regions, the catchment of Shirase Glacier has been gaining mass, a trend attributed to increased precipitation. Here, we report on the dynamical ocean-driven slowdown, thickening and grounding line advance of Shirase Glacier, in response to strengthening easterly winds that reduce mCDW inflow and decrease basal melt rates. Our findings are significant because they demonstrate that warm water regimes are not universally associated with glacier acceleration and mass loss in Antarctica, and they highlight the overlooked role of ocean forcing in the recent mass gain of the Dronning Maud Land sector.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

After Totten, Denman Glacier is the largest contributor to sea level rise in East Antarctica. Denman's catchment contains an ice volume equivalent to 1.5 m of global sea level and sits in the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB). Geological evidence of this basin's sensitivity to past warm periods, combined with recent observations showing that Denman's ice speed is accelerating and its grounding line is retreating along a retrograde slope, has raised the prospect that its contributions to sea level rise could accelerate. In this study, we produce the first long-term (∼50 years) record of past glacier behaviour (ice flow speed, ice tongue structure and calving) and combine these observations with numerical modelling to explore the likely drivers of its recent change. We find a spatially widespread acceleration of the Denman system since the 1970s across both its grounded (17±4 % acceleration; 1972–2017) and floating portions (36±5 % acceleration; 1972–2017). Our numerical modelling experiments show that a combination of grounding line retreat, ice tongue thinning and the unpinning of Denman's ice tongue from a pinning point following its last major calving event are required to simulate an acceleration comparable with observations. Given its bed topography and the geological evidence that Denman Glacier has retreated substantially in the past, its recent grounding line retreat and ice flow acceleration suggest that it could be poised to make a significant contribution to sea level in the near future.

Around large parts of West Antarctica and in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, increased wind-forced intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf have been associated with mass loss over the last few decades. Despite considerable seasonal variability, observations in 2018 have also confirmed relatively high basal melt rates of up to 16 m a−1 underneath the Shirase ice tongue in Enderby Land, East Antarctica. These high basal melt rates are also caused by intrusions of mCDW onto the continental shelf, but the catchment of Shirase Glacier has been gaining mass, a trend often attributed to increased precipitation. Here, we document the dynamical ocean-driven slowdown, ice surface thickening and grounding line advance of Shirase Glacier in response to strengthening easterly winds that reduce mCDW inflow and decrease basal melt rates. Our findings are significant because they demonstrate that warm ice shelf cavity regimes are not universally associated with glacier acceleration and mass loss in Antarctica, and they highlight the overlooked role of the impact of easterly winds in the recent mass gain of the Shirase Glacier catchment.

The Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica contains ice equivalent to 3–4 m of global mean sea level rise and is primarily drained by Cook Glacier. Of concern is that recent observations (since the 1970s) show an acceleration in ice speed over the grounding line of both the Eastern and Western portions of Cook Glacier. Here, we use a numerical ice-flow model (Úa) to simulate the instantaneous effects of observed changes at the terminus of Cook Glacier in order to understand the link between these changes and recently observed ice acceleration. Simulations suggest that the acceleration of Cook West was caused by a retreat in calving-front position in the 1970s, potentially enhanced by grounding-line retreat, while acceleration of Cook East was likely caused by ice-shelf thinning and grounding-line retreat in the mid-1990s. Moreover, we show that the instantaneous ice discharge at Cook East would increase by up to 85% if the whole ice shelf is removed and it ungrounds from a pinning point; and that the discharge at Cook West could increase by ~300% if its grounding line retreated by 10 km.

The weakening and/or removal of floating ice shelves in Antarctica can induce inland ice flow acceleration. Numerical modelling suggests these processes will play an important role in Antarctica's future sea-level contribution, but our understanding of the mechanisms that lead to ice tongue/shelf collapse is incomplete and largely based on observations from the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Here, we use remote sensing of structural glaciology and ice velocity from 2001 to 2020 and analyse potential ocean-climate forcings to identify mechanisms that triggered the rapid disintegration of ~2445 km2of ice mélange and part of the Voyeykov Ice Shelf in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica between 27 March and 28 May 2007. Results show disaggregation was pre-conditioned by weakening of the ice tongue's structural integrity and was triggered by mélange removal driven by a regional atmospheric circulation anomaly and a less extensive latent-heat polynya. Disaggregation did not induce inland ice flow acceleration, but our observations highlight an important mechanism through which floating termini can be removed, whereby the break-out of mélange and multiyear landfast sea ice triggers disaggregation of a structurally-weak ice shelf. These observations highlight the need for numerical ice-sheet models to account for interactions between sea-ice, mélange and ice shelves.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

It has been widely reported that ice flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet has increased over the preceding decades. The vast majority of these increases can be attributed to the ongoing destabilization of the Amundsen Sea sector in West Antarctica, with a much more limited change in East Antarctica. However, much less attention has been focussed on the temporal and spatial variations of ice flux in Antarctica over the observational period.In this study we combine existing velocity products (ITS_LIVE and MEaSUREs) to create 12 timestamped velocity mosaics between 1999 and 2018 to investigate both overall trends in ice flux and the temporal and spatial variability across our observational period. At an ice sheet scale we report a 45 GT yr-1 increase in ice discharge in West Antarctica and no overall change in East Antarctica. However, at an individual catchment scale we observe considerable temporal and spatial variability. For West Antarctica, despite the overall increase in discharge clear periods of deceleration are observed in most individual catchments. In East Antarctica, despite overall consistency, 3-10% variations in ice discharge are observed at several major outlet glaciers (e.g. Denman, Totten, Frost, Cook, Matusevitch, Rennick). These variations can be linked to regional oceanic variability along with highly localised differences in bed topography and ice shelf calving. In some cases, this can result in neighbouring catchments simultaneously undergoing opposing trends. Improving our understanding the processes driving these short-term variations will be important in improving the accuracy of future sea level contributions from Antarctica.

The buttressing strength of Antarctic ice shelves directly effects the amount of ice discharge across the grounding line, with buttressing strength affected by both the thickness and extent of an ice shelf. Recent work has shown that a reduction in ice-shelf buttressing due to ocean induced ice-shelf thinning is responsible for a significant portion of increased Antarctic ice discharge (Gudmundsson et al., 2019, but few studies have attempted to show the effect of variability in ice-shelf extent on ice discharge. This variability arises due to ice-shelf calving following a cycle of long periods of slow, continuous calving interposed with calving of large, discrete sections. These discrete calving events tend to occur on a comparative timeframe to that of the observational record. As such, when determining observed changes in ice discharge it is crucial that this natural variability is separated from any observed trends. In this work we use the numerical ice-flow model Úa in combination with observations of ice shelf extent to diagnostically calculate Antarctic ice discharge. These observations primarily date back to the 1970s, though for some ice shelves records exist back to the 1940s. We assemble an Antarctic wide model for two scenarios: 1) with ice shelves at their maximum observed extent and 2) with ice shelves at their minimum observed extent. We then compare these two scenarios to differences in the observed changes in Antarctic ice-discharge to determine how much can be attributed to natural variance . Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S., & Fricker, H. A. (2019). Instantaneous Antarctic ice‐ sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 13903– 13909.

Evolving conditions at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier will be important in determining the rate of its future sea-level contribution over the coming decades. Here, we use remote-sensing observations to investigate recent changes (2000–2018) in the structure and velocity of Thwaites Glacier and its floating tongue. We show that the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier has accelerated by 38% over this period, while its previously intact floating tongue has transitioned to a weaker mélange of fractured icebergs bounded by sea ice. However, the rate of structural weakening and acceleration was not uniform across the observational period and we identify two periods of rapid acceleration and structural weakening (2006–2012; 2016–2018), separated by a period of deceleration and re-advance of the structurally-intact shear margin boundary (2012–2015). The timing of these accelerations/decelerations strongly suggests a link to variable ocean forcing. The weakened tongue now has some dependency on landfast sea ice for structural integrity and is vulnerable to changes in landfast ice persistency. Future reductions in landfast sea ice could manifest from changes in climate and/or the imminent removal of the B-22A iceberg from the Thwaites embayment. Such changes could have important implications for the integrity of the ice tongue and future glacier discharge.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is the single largest potential contributor to future global mean sea level rise, containing a water mass equivalent of 53 m. Recent work has found the overall mass balance of the EAIS to be approximately in equilibrium, albeit with large uncertainties. However, changes in oceanic conditions have the potential to upset this balance. This could happen by both a general warming of the ocean and also by shifts in oceanic conditions allowing warmer water masses to intrude into ice shelf cavities.We use the Úa numerical ice-flow model, combined with ocean-melt rates parameterized by the PICO box mode, to predict the future contribution to global-mean sea level of the EAIS. Results are shown for the next 100 years under a range of emission scenarios and oceanic conditions on a region by region basis, as well as for the whole of the EAIS.

Supraglacial lakes are important to ice sheet mass balance because their development and drainage has been linked to changes in ice flow velocity and ice shelf disintegration. However, little is known about their distribution on the world's largest ice sheet in East Antarctica. Here, we use ~5 million km

Cook Glacier drains a large proportion of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica, a region thought to be vulnerable to marine ice sheet instability and with potential to make a significant contribution to sea level. Despite its importance, there have been very few observations of its longer-term behaviour (e.g. of velocity or changes at its ice front). Here we use a variety of satellite imagery to produce a time series of ice front position change from 1947 to 2017 and ice velocity from 1973 to 2017. Cook Glacier has two distinct outlets (termed East and West), and we observe the near-complete loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf at some time between 1973 and 1989. This was associated with a doubling of the velocity of Cook West Glacier, which may also be linked to previously published reports of inland thinning. The loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf is surprising given that the present-day ocean climate conditions in the region are not typically associated with catastrophic ice shelf loss. However, we speculate that a more intense ocean climate forcing in the mid-20th century may have been important in forcing its collapse. Since the loss of the Cook West Ice Shelf, the presence of landfast sea ice and mélange in the newly formed embayment appears to be important in stabilizing the glacier front and enabling periodic advances. We also show that the last calving event at the larger Cook East Ice Shelf resulted in the retreat of its ice front into a dynamically important portion of the ice shelf and observe a short-lived increase in velocity of Cook East between 2006 and 2007, which we link to the drainage of subglacial Lake Cook. Taken together, these observations suggest that the velocity, and hence discharge, of Cook Glacier is highly sensitive to changes at its terminus, but a more detailed process-based analysis of this potentially vulnerable region requires further oceanic and bathymetric data.

The floating ice shelves and glacier tongues which fringe the Antarctic continent are important because they help buttress ice flow from the ice sheet interior. Dynamic feedbacks associated with glacier calving have the potential to reduce buttressing and subsequently increase ice flow into the ocean. However, there are few high temporal resolution studies on glacier calving, especially in East Antarctica. Here we use ENVISAT ASAR wide swath mode imagery to investigate monthly glacier terminus change across six marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Porpoise Bay (76° S, 128° E), Wilkes Land (East Antarctica), between November 2002 and March 2012. This reveals a large near-simultaneous calving event in January 2007, resulting in a total of ∼ 2900 km2 of ice being removed from glacier tongues. We also observe the start of a similar large near-simultaneous calving event in March 2016. Our observations suggest that both of these large calving events are driven by the break-up of the multi-year sea ice which usually occupies Porpoise Bay. However, these break-up events appear to have been driven by contrasting mechanisms. We link the 2007 sea ice break-up to atmospheric circulation anomalies in December 2005 weakening the multi-year sea ice through a combination of surface melt and a change in wind direction prior to its eventual break-up in January 2007. In contrast, the 2016 break-up event is linked to the terminus of Holmes (West) Glacier pushing the multi-year sea ice further into the open ocean, making the sea ice more vulnerable to break-up. In the context of predicted future warming and the sensitivity of sea ice to changes in climate, our results highlight the importance of interactions between landfast sea ice and glacier tongue stability in East Antarctica.

Supraglacial lakes are important to ice sheet mass balance because their development and drainage has been linked to changes in ice flow velocity and ice shelf disintegration. However, little is known about their distribution on the world’s largest ice sheet in East Antarctica. Here, we use ~5 million km2 of high-resolution satellite imagery to identify >65,000 lakes (>1,300 km2) that formed around the peak of the melt season in January 2017. Lakes occur in most marginal areas where they typically develop at low elevations (1500 m. We find that lakes often cluster a few kilometres down-ice from grounding lines and ~60% (>80% by area) develop on ice shelves, including some potentially vulnerable to collapse driven by lake-induced hydro-fracturing. This suggests that parts of the ice sheet may be highly sensitive to climate warming.

The floating ice shelves and glacier tongues which fringe the Antarctic continent are important because they help buttress ice flow from the ice sheet interior. Dynamic feedbacks associated with glacier calving have the potential to reduce buttressing and subsequently increase ice flow into the ocean. However, there are few high temporal resolution studies on glacier calving, especially in East Antarctica. Here we use remote sensing to investigate monthly glacier terminus change across six marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Porpoise Bay (−76° S, 128° E), Wilkes Land (East Antarctica), between November 2002 and March 2012. This reveals a large simultaneous calving event in January 2007, resulting in a total of ~ 2900 km2 of ice being removed from glacier tongues. Our observations suggest that sea-ice must be removed from glacier termini for any form of calving to take place, and we link this major calving event to a rapid break-up of the multi-year sea-ice which usually occupies Porpoise Bay. Using sea-ice concentrations as a proxy for glacier calving, and by analysing available satellite imagery stretching back to 1963, we reconstruct the long-term calving activity of the largest glacier in Porpoise Bay: Holmes (West) Glacier. This reveals that its present-day velocity (~ 1450 m a−1) is approximately 50 % faster than between 1963 and 1973 (~ 900 m a−1). We also observed the start of a large calving event in Porpoise Bay in March 2016 that is consistent with our reconstructions of the periodicity of major calving events. These results highlight the importance of sea-ice in modulating outlet glacier calving and velocity in East Antarctica.

Recent retreat of outlet glaciers in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, is driven by changes in sea ice., The dynamics of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers are an important component of ice-sheet mass balance. Using satellite imagery for the past 40 years, we compile an approximately decadal record of outlet-glacier terminus position change around the entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) marine margin. We find that most outlet glaciers retreated during the period 1974–1990, before switching to advance in every drainage basin during the two most recent periods, 1990–2000 and 2000–2012. The only exception to this trend was in Wilkes Land, where the majority of glaciers (74%) retreated between 2000 and 2012. We hypothesize that this anomalous retreat is linked to a reduction in sea ice and associated impacts on ocean stratification, which increases the incursion of warm deep water toward glacier termini. Because Wilkes Land overlies a large marine basin, it raises the possibility of a future sea level contribution from this sector of East Antarctica.

Multidecadal trends in the terminus position of outlet glaciers along the margin of the East Antarctic ice sheet reveal three epochal patterns of glacier retreat or advance consistent with a rapid and coherent response to air temperature and sea-ice trends. It is widely known that glaciers in West Antarctica and Greenland have been discharging ice into the oceans in response to warming in recent years, and that sea levels have risen as a result. By contrast, we hear little about the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet, which has been viewed as being less vulnerable to climate change owing to its location in an extremely cold climate. Chris Stokes and colleagues have used satellite imagery to map a large sample of glaciers along the Pacific coast of East Antarctica and show that in fact, they are responding to decadal climate variability. In concert with climate, glaciers retreated in the 1970s and 1980s, advanced in the 1990s, and approximately split between advance and retreat since the 2000s. The authors conclude that parts of the world's largest ice sheet may be more responsive to external forcing than previously recognized. Observations of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica1,2,3,4,5,6 indicate that their contribution to sea level is accelerating as a result of increased velocity, thinning and retreat7,8,9,10,11. Thinning has also been reported along the margin of the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet1, but whether glaciers are advancing or retreating there is largely unknown, and there has been no attempt to place such changes in the context of localized mass loss7,9 or climatic or oceanic forcing. Here we present multidecadal trends in the terminus position of 175 ocean-terminating outlet glaciers along 5,400 kilometres of the margin of the East Antarctic ice sheet, and reveal widespread and synchronous changes. Despite large fluctuations between glaciers—linked to their size—three epochal patterns emerged: 63 per cent of glaciers retreated from 1974 to 1990, 72 per cent advanced from 1990 to 2000, and 58 per cent advanced from 2000 to 2010. These trends were most pronounced along the warmer western South Pacific coast, whereas glaciers along the cooler Ross Sea coast experienced no significant changes. We find that glacier change along the Pacific coast is consistent with a rapid and coherent response to air temperature and sea-ice trends, linked through the dominant mode of atmospheric variability (the Southern Annular Mode). We conclude that parts of the world’s largest ice sheet may be more vulnerable to external forcing than recognized previously.