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International audience; Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a “species–energy model” by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in “wilderness” areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results Species–energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R2-values: 0.79–0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species–area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

Este artículo contiene 19 páginas, 4 figuras, 2 tablas., The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996–2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most susceptible to changes in these factors, our results provide novel insights to integrate biological invasions into scenarios of biodiversity change to better inform decision-making for policy and the management of biological invasions., This research was funded through the 2017-2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations FWF (project no I 4011-B32–GL, BeL, SD, DM, FE), MCIN/AEI/https:// doi. org/ 10. 13039/ 50110 00110 33 (PCI2018-092966– NRP, CPG, EC), BMBF (16LC1807C–MG, IK; 16LC1807A–HS; 16LC1807B–JMJ) and ANR (NR-18-EBI4-0004–FC, CB, CD, AT).

Large-scale biodiversity data, for example, on species distribution and richness information, are being mobilized and becoming available at an increasing rate. Interactive web applications like atlases have been developed to visualize available datasets and make them accessible to a wider audience. Web mapping tools are changing rapidly, and different underlying concepts have been developed to visualize datasets at a high cartographic standard. 2. Here, we introduce the Combined Atlas Framework for the development of interactive web atlases for ecological data visualization. We combine two existing approaches: the five stages of the user-centred design approach for web mapping applications and the three U approach for interface success. 3. Subsequently, we illustrate the use of this framework by developing the Atlas of Plant Invasions based on the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database. This case study illustrates how the newly developed Combined Atlas Framework with a user-centred design philosophy can generate measurable success through communication with the target user group, iterative prototyping and competitive analysis of other existing web mapping approaches. 4. The framework is useful in creating an atlas that employs user feedback to determine usability and utility features within an interactive atlas system. Finally, this framework will enable a better-informed development process of future visualization and dissemination of biodiversity data through web mapping applications and interactive atlases. published

Aim:Our current understanding of the causes of global extinction risk is mostly informed by the expert knowledge-based “threats classification scheme” of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Studies based on this dataset came to different conclusions about the relative importance of threats to species, depending on which taxonomic groups and levels of extinction risk were considered, and which version of the database was used. A key reason may lie in data limitations as causes of threat are well known for charismatic and well-studied species, but not for the majority of species assessed. Here, we aim to fill current knowledge gaps about the importance of drivers of global extinction risks by focusing on endemic species.Location:Global.Methods:We examined country-level variation in the proportion of globally threatened and extinct endemic species (Index of Threat, IoT) with a range of spatially explicit information about anthropogenic pressures, mitigation measures and data limitations.Results:IoT coincided with several anthropogenic pressures, with substantial differences among kingdoms, life-forms, levels of extinction risk and geographic locations. IoT of plants, particularly tropical woody plants of moderate extinction risk, was higher in countries with higher GDP and more invasive species. Furthermore, IoT of animals, particularly tropical mammals and invertebrates of moderate extinction risk, was higher in countries with higher GDP and smaller roadless areas.Main conclusions:The extinction crisis for endemic species is associated with a complex network of potential drivers that need to be considered in concert in conservation policy and practice. Although our results require careful interpretation and remain sensitive to data limitations, we encourage similar studies at smaller scales to identify potential drivers of extinction risk at a higher resolution, particularly in regions where species assessments have been conducted consistently or on organisms with a uniform response time to pressures. published

Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature’s contribution to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent, but complementary, scenarios focused on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we presented and implemented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change including biological invasions.

Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple environmental, societal and socio-economic drivers. We adopted a qualitative scenario approach to explore the future of invasive alien species (IAS) in Europe and created an overall strategy for their management that considers different plausible future developments. The scenarios and strategy were developed during two online workshops with a multidisciplinary team of experts. First, we downscaled four global scenarios of biological invasions to the European level. Second, we developed a management strategy structured into 19 goals that cover a broad array of IAS-related topics (i.e. policy, research, public awareness and biosecurity), and provided solutions for achieving these goals considering the European scenarios. Third, we identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing IAS in Europe can be structured: (i) a European biosecurity regime, (ii) a dedicated communication strategy, (iii) data standardization and management tools, and (iv) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we identified the feasibility of the IAS management strategy, finding strong differences among the four scenarios. High levels of technological development, public environmental awareness, and effectiveness of IAS policies facilitated the implementation of the overall management strategy. Together, our results indicate that it is time for a new management of biological invasions in Europe based on a more integrative perspective across sectors and countries to be better prepared for future challenges.

Biological invasions represent a key threat to insular systems and have pronounced impacts across environments and economies. The ecological impacts have received substantial focus, but the socioeconomic impacts are poorly synthesized across spatial and temporal scales. We used the InvaCost database, the most comprehensive assessment of published economic costs of invasive species, to assess economic impacts on islands worldwide. We analyzed socioeconomic costs across differing expenditure types and examined temporal trends across islands that differ in their political geography-island nation states, overseas territories, and islands of continental countries. Over US$36 billion in total costs (including damages and management) has occurred on islands from 1965 to 2020 due to invasive species' impacts. Nation states incurred the greatest total and management costs, and islands of continental countries incurred costs of similar magnitude, both far higher than those in overseas territories. Damage-loss costs were significantly lower, but with qualitatively similar patterns across differing political geographies. The predominance of management spending differs from the pattern found for most countries examined and suggests important knowledge gaps in the extent of many damage-related socioeconomic impacts. Nation states spent the greatest proportion of their gross domestic products countering these costs, at least 1 order of magnitude higher than other locations. Most costs were borne by authorities and stakeholders, demonstrating the key role of governmental and nongovernmental bodies in addressing island invasions. Temporal trends revealed cost increases across all island types, potentially reflecting efforts to tackle invasive species at larger, more socially complex scales. Nevertheless, the already high total economic costs of island invasions substantiate the role of biosecurity in reducing and preventing invasive species arrivals to reduce strains on limited financial resources and avoid threats to sustainable development goals.Costos económicos de proteger a las islas de las especies invasoras Resumen Las invasiones biológicas representan una amenaza importante para los sistemas insulares, además de tener impactos pronunciados en el ambiente y en la economía. Los impactos ecológicos han recibido atención sustancial, mientras que los impactos socioeconómicos se encuentran pobremente sintetizados en las escalas temporales y espaciales. Usamos la base de datos InvaCost, el análisis más completo de los costos económicos de las especies invasoras, para evaluar los impactos económicos sobre las islas a nivel mundial. Analizamos los costos socioeconómicos en varios tipos de gastos y examinamos las tendencias temporales en las islas que difieren en su geografía política - islas estado-nación, territorios ultramarinos e islas de países continentales. En las islas han ocurrido gastos de más de $36 mil millones de dólares entre 1965 y 2020 debido a los impactos de las especies invasoras. Las islas estado-nación produjeron los mayores costos de manejo y el mayor total, mientras que las islas de los países continentales produjeron costos de una magnitud similar, ambas con gastos mucho más elevados que los de los territorios ultramarinos. Los costos de las pérdidas por daños fueron significativamente más bajas, aunque con patrones cualitativamente similares entre las diferentes geografías políticas. El predominio del gasto en el manejo difiere del patrón hallado en la mayoría de los países analizados y sugiere que hay vacíos importantes en el conocimiento del alcance de muchos de los impactos socioeconómicos relacionados con los daños. Las islas estado-nación gastaron la mayor proporción de su producto interno bruto en contrarrestar estos costos, al menos una orden de magnitud mayor que las otras localidades. La mayoría de los costos fueron asumidos por las autoridades y los accionistas, lo que demuestra el papel clave que tienen los organismos gubernamentales y no gubernamentales en cómo se atienden las invasiones insulares. Las tendencias temporales revelaron incrementos en el costo en todos los tipos de islas, lo que potencialmente refleja los esfuerzos por combatir a las especies invasoras a escalas más grandes y socialmente más complejas. Aun así, el elevado costo económico total de las invasiones insulares fundamenta la función que tiene la bioseguridad en la reducción y prevención de la llegada de especies invasoras para reducir presiones sobre los recursos financieros limitados y evitar amenazas para las metas de desarrollo sustentable.生物入侵是岛屿系统面临的主要威胁, 对环境和经济都产生了明显的影响。生态方面的影响已得到很多关注, 但社会经济方面的影响仍缺少时空尺度上的综合分析。本研究使用 InvaCost 数据库, 包含已发表的入侵物种经济成本最全面的评估数据, 来评估全球岛屿在生物入侵中面临的经济影响。我们分析了不同支出类型的社会经济成本, 并研究了不同政治地理的岛屿 (岛屿民族国家、海外领地和大陆国家的岛屿) 中社会经济成本随时间变化的趋势。结果显示, 从 1965 年到 2020 年, 岛屿由于入侵物种的影响产生的总成本 (包括破坏和管理) 超过 360 亿美元。民族国家的总成本和管理成本最高, 大陆国家的岛屿产生的成本规模相近, 都远远高于海外领地的成本。破坏导致的成本明显较低, 在不同政治地理的岛屿中有相似的情况。而管理支出占主导地位的情况则在我们研究的大多数国家中有所不同, 表明在许多与破坏有关的社会经济影响程度方面仍存在重要的知识空缺。民族国家用于这些成本的国内生产总值比例最高, 至少比其他地区高一个数量级。大多数费用由当局和利益相关者承担, 反映了政府和非政府机构在应对岛屿入侵问题中的关键作用。时间趋势分析表明, 所有类型的岛屿承担的成本都随时间推移而增加, 可能反映了在更大、更复杂的社会范围内应对生物入侵的努力。然而, 岛屿入侵问题的总经济成本已经很高, 这强调了应关注生物安全来减少和预防入侵物种的引入, 以减缓对有限财政资源的压力, 并避免对可持续发展目标的威胁。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

Many plant traits covary with environmental gradients, reflecting shifts in adaptive strategies under changing conditions and thus providing information about potential consequences of future environmental change for vegetation and ecosystem functioning. Despite extensive efforts to map trait–environment relationships, the evidence remains heterogeneous and often conflicting, partially because of insufficient consideration of distinct trait syndromes for certain growth forms and habitats. Moreover, it is unclear whether traits of non-native and native plant taxa respond similarly to environmental gradients, limiting our ability to assess the consequences of future plant invasions. Here, using comprehensive data for Germany and the Czech Republic and a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, we assessed relationships between three major plant traits (maximum height, Hmax; specific leaf area, SLA; and seed mass, SM) and environmental factors (7 climate variables and percentage of urban land cover) for native and non-native woody and herbaceous plant assemblages across six broad habitat types. We projected the trait change in these assemblages under future environmental change scenarios until 2081–2100 and quantified the change in trait difference between native and non-native plants. Our models depicted multiple trait–environment relationships, with several important differences attributed to biogeographical status and woodiness within and across habitat types. The overall magnitude of trait change is projected to be greater for non-native than native taxa and to increase under more extreme scenarios. Native woody plant assemblages may generally experience an increase across all three traits, whereas woody non-natives may decline in Hmax and increase in SLA and SM. Herbaceous Hmax is expected to increase and SLA to decrease in most habitats. The obtained trait projections highlight the conditions under which non-native plants may prevail over natives and vice versa and can serve as a starting point for projecting future changes in ecosystem functions and services.

Humans cultivate thousands of economic plants (i.e. plants with economic value) outside their native ranges. To analyze how this contributes to naturalization success, we combine global databases on economic uses and naturalization success of the world’s seed plants. Here we show that naturalization likelihood is 18 times higher for economic than non-economic plants. Naturalization success is highest for plants grown as animal food or for environmental uses (e.g. ornamentals), and increases with number of uses. Taxa from the Northern Hemisphere are disproportionately over-represented among economic plants, and economic plants from Asia have the greatest naturalization success. In regional naturalized floras, the percentage of economic plants exceeds the global percentage and increases towards the equator. Phylogenetic patterns in the naturalized flora partly result from phylogenetic patterns in the plants we cultivate. Our study illustrates that accounting for the intentional introduction of economic plants is key to unravelling drivers of plant naturalization., Understanding why certain alien species become naturalized can shed light on biological invasion patterns. In this global analysis on thousands of taxa, van Kleunen and colleagues show that plant species of economic use are more likely to become naturalized, and that this underlies geographic patterns and phylogenetic signals in naturalization

Islands are hotspots of plant endemism and are particularly vulnerable to the establishment (naturalization) of alien plant species. Naturalized species richness on islands depends on several biogeographical and socioeconomic factors, but especially on remoteness. One potential explanation for this is that the phylogenetically imbalanced composition of native floras on remote islands leaves unoccupied niche space for alien species to colonize. Here, we tested whether the species richness of naturalized seed plants on 249 islands worldwide is related to the phylogenetic composition of their native floras. To this end, we calculated standardized effect size (ses) accounting for species richness for three phylogenetic assemblage metrics (Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD), PDses; mean pairwise distance (MPD), MPDses; and mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD), MNTDses) based on a phylogeny of 42 135 native island plant species and related them to naturalized species richness. As covariates in generalized linear mixed models, we included native species richness and biogeographical, climatic and socioeconomic island characteristics known to affect naturalized species richness. Our analysis showed an increase in naturalized species richness with increasing phylogenetic clustering of the native assemblages (i.e. native species more closely related than expected by chance), most prominently with MPDses. This effect, however, was smaller than the influence of native species richness and biogeographical factors, e.g. remoteness. Further, the effect of native phylogenetic structure (MPDses) on naturalized species richness was stronger for smaller islands, but this pattern was not consistent across all phylogenetic assemblage metrics. This finding suggests that the phylogenetic composition of native island floras may affect naturalized species richness, particularly on small islands where species are more likely to co-occur locally. Overall, we conclude that the composition of native island assemblages affects their susceptibility to plant naturalizations in addition to other socioeconomic and biogeographical factors, and should be considered when assessing invasion risks on islands., Ecography, 2022 (11), ISSN:0906-7590, ISSN:1600-0587

International audience; In addition to being a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, biological invasions also have profound impacts on economies and human wellbeing. However, the threats posed by invasive species often do not receive adequate attention and lack targeted management. In part, this may result from different or even ambivalent perceptions of invasive species which have a dual effect for stakeholders—being simultaneously a benefit and a burden. For these species, literature that synthesizes best practice is very limited, and analyses providing a comprehensive understanding of their economics are generally lacking. This has resulted in a critical gap in our understanding of the underlying trade-offs surrounding management efforts and approaches. Here, we explore qualitative trends in the literature for invasive species with dual effects, drawing from both the recently compiled InvaCost database and international case studies. The few invasive species with dual roles in InvaCost provide evidence for a temporal increase in reporting of costs, but with benefits relatively sporadically reported alongside costs. We discuss methods, management, assessment and policy frameworks dedicated to these species, along with lessons learned, complexities and persisting knowledge gaps. Our analysis points at the need to enhance scientific understanding of those species through inter- and cross-disciplinary efforts that can help advance their management.

Biological invasions represent a key threat to island ecosystems, with pronounced impacts across environments and economies. The ecological impacts have received substantial focus, but the economic costs have lacked synthesis at spatial and temporal scales. Here we utilise the InvaCost database, the most comprehensive global assessment of published economic costs of invasive species, to assess reported spend by cost types and socioeconomic sectors, and to examine temporal trends in spending, across islands that differ in their political geography - nation states, overseas territories or offshore islands of continental countries. We based this assessment on 1473 unique cost entries comprising 2914 annual costs totalling almost US$100 million in area-corrected costs between 1965-2020. We find that offshore islands of continental countries incur the greatest total and management costs. However, nation states incurred the greatest damage costs whilst substantially financing management actions, and spent an overall greater proportion of their GDP. In contrast, spending within overseas territories was significantly lower in all respects. The most impacted sector was authorities and stakeholders, demonstrating the key role of government in addressing island invasions. Temporal trends revealed continual increases in spending across all island types. This likely reflects ongoing introduction rates globally alongside an increased recognition of the importance of islands as biodiversity hotspots, and an appetite to tackle invasive species at larger and more socially complex scales. However, the high economic costs of invasions on islands substantiates the need to prevent them in order to avoid this dire threat to biodiversity and its burden on limited conservation resources.

Aims The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. Results We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less. We thank Marten Winter (iDiv, Germany) and all who contributed to the GloNAF and EVA databases without whom this work would not have been possible. Robin Pouteau was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 31901176) and Taizhou University (2018YQ001). Idoia Biurrun was supported by the Basque Government (IT936-16). Milan Chytry was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (19-28491X). Franz Essl and Bernd Lenzner appreciate funding by the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (I2086-B16). Carsten Meyer acknowledges funding by the Volkswagen Foundation through a Freigeist Fellowship (A118199), and additional support by iDiv, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG-FZT 118, 202548816). Petr Pysek and Jan Pergl were supported by EXPRO grant (19-28807X) of the Czech Science Foundation and long-term research development project RVO (67985939) of Czech Academy of Sciences. Jens-Christian Svenning considers this work a contribution to his VILLUM Investigator project "Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World" funded by VILLUM FONDEN (16549). We appreciate the helpful comments by three anonymous reviewers and the Handling Editor, Raimundo Real.

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3-19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the relationship between the three components of impact, an approach we term GIRAE (Generalised Impact = Range size × Abundance × per-unit Effect). We discuss how GIRAE can be applied to multiple types of impact, including environmental impacts, damage and management costs. We propose two methods for applying GIRAE. The species-specific method computes the relationship between impact, range size, abundance and per-unit effect for a given species across multiple invaded sites or regions of different sizes. The multi-species method combines data from multiple species across multiple sites or regions to calculate a per-unit effect for each species and is computed using a single regression model. The species-specific method is more accurate, but it requires a large amount of data for each species and assumes a constant per-unit effect for a species across the invaded area. The multi-species method is more easily applicable and data-parsimonious, but assumes the same relationship between impact, range size and abundance for all considered species. We illustrate these methods using data about money spent managing plant invasions in different biomes of South Africa. We found clear differences between species in terms of money spent per unit area invaded, with per-unit expenditure varying substantially between biomes for some species-insights that are useful for monitoring and evaluating management. GIRAE offers a versatile and practical method that can be applied to many different types of data to better understand and manage the impacts of biological invasions.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02836-0.

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments This research was funded through the COST Action “Alien Challenge” [Grant number TD1209]; the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations AEI, FWF and BMBF [grant numbers AEI PCI2018-092966 (NRP)/FWF project 4011-B32 (FE, SD, GL, BeL)/BMBF projects 01LC1807A (HS) and 01LC1807B (JMJ)]; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [grant numbers InDyNet, JE 288/8-1; JE 288/9-1, 9-2 (JMJ)/via iDiv FZT 118, 202548816 (MW)]; OP RDE grant EVA4.0 [grant number CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803] (AML); CONICYT [grant number AFB170008] (AP); UK-SCAPE programme, Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/R016429/1] (HER)

Invasive alien species are repeatedly shown to be amongst the top threats to biodiversity globally. Robust indicators for measuring the status and trends of biological invasions are lacking, but essential for monitoring biological invasions and the effectiveness of interventions. Here, we formulate and demonstrate three such indicators that capture the key dimensions of species invasions, each a significant and necessary advance to inform invasive alien species policy targets: 1) Rate of Invasive Alien Species Spread, which provides modelled rates of ongoing introductions of species based on invasion discovery and reporting. 2) Impact Risk, that estimates invasive alien species impacts on the environment in space and time and provides a basis for nationally targeted prioritization of where best to invest in management efforts. 3) Status Information on invasive alien species, that tracks improvement in the essential dimensions of information needed to guide relevant policy and data collection and in support of assessing invasive alien species spread and impact. We show how proximal, model-informed status and trend indicators on invasive alien species can provide more effective global (and national) reporting on biological invasions, and how countries can contribute to supporting these indicators.

Monitoring the progress parties have made toward meeting global biodiversity targets requires appropriate indicators. The recognition of Invasive alien species (IAS) as a biodiversity threat has led to the development of specific targets aiming at reducing their prevalence and impact. However, indicators for adequately monitoring and reporting on the status of biological invasions have been slow to emerge, with those that exist being arguably insufficient. We performed a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature to assess the adequacy of existing IAS indicators against a range of policy-relevant and scientifically valid properties. We found that very few indicators have most of the desirable properties, and that existing indicators are unevenly spread across the components of the Driver-Pressure-State-Response and Theory of Change frameworks. We provide three possible reasons for this: i) inadequate attention paid to the requirements of an effective IAS indicator, (ii) insufficient data required to populate and inform policy-relevant, scientifically robust indicators, or (iii) deficient investment in the development and maintenance of IAS indicators. This review includes a gap analysis of where current inadequacies in IAS indicators exist, and provides a roadmap for the future development of indicators capable of measuring progress made toward mitigating and halting biological invasions.

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series even more exciting results especially about range shifts can be expected. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented.

Summary Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally, lineages differ in diversification rates, and high diversification rates have been associated with characteristics that increase species naturalization success. Here, we investigate the role of diversification rates in explaining the naturalization success of angiosperm plant families.We use five global data sets that include native and alien plant species distribution, horticultural use of plants, and a time‐calibrated angiosperm phylogeny. Using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models, we analysed the effect of diversification rate, different geographical range measures, and horticultural use on the naturalization success of plant families.We show that a family's naturalization success is positively associated with its evolutionary history, native range size, and economic use. Investigating interactive effects of these predictors shows that native range size and geographic distribution additionally affect naturalization success. High diversification rates and large ranges increase naturalization success, especially of temperate families.We suggest this may result from lower ecological specialization in temperate families with large ranges, compared with tropical families with smaller ranges.

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-ecological predictors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet a global synthetic perspective of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how a set of five socio-ecological predictors (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain i) country-level established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and ii) country capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. Trade and Governance together best predicted the average EAS richness, increasing variance explained by up to 54% compared to models based on climatic and spatial variables only. Country-level EAS richness increased strongly with Trade, whereas high level of Governance resulted in lower EAS richness. Historical (1996) levels of Governance and Trade better explained response variables than current (2015) levels. Thus, our results reveal a historical legacy of these two predictors with profound implications for the future of biological invasions. We therefore used Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions. Our results provide novel insights into the complex relationship between socio-ecological predictors and biological invasions. Further, we highlight the need for designing better policies and management measures for alien species, and for integrating biological invasions in global environmental scenarios.

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide breadth of plausible global futures through 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlighted that socio-economic developments and changes in sustainability policies and lifestyle have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known ecological drivers, such as climate and human land use change. Our scenarios align fairly well with the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways, but the factors that drive differences in biological invasions are underrepresented there. Including these factors in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments, and obtain a more integrative picture of future socio-ecological developments.

Pouteau, R., et al., [Aim] The number of naturalized (i.e. established) alien species has increased rapidly over recent centuries. Given the differences in environmental tolerances among species, little is known about what factors determine the extent to which the observed size of the naturalized range of a species and hence the extent to which the observed richness of naturalized species of a region approach their full potential. Here, we asked which region- and species-specific characteristics explain differences between observed and expected naturalizations. [Location] Global. [Time period] Present. [Major taxa studied] Vascular plants. [Methods] We determined the observed naturalized distribution outside Europe for 1,485 species endemic to Europe using the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database and their expected distributions outside Europe using species distribution models. First, we investigated which of seven socio-economic factors related to introduction pathways, anthropogenic pressures and inventory effort best explained the differences between observed and expected naturalized European floras. Second, we examined whether distributional features, economic use and functional traits explain the extent to which species have filled their expected ranges outside Europe. Results: In terms of suitable area, more than 95% of expected naturalizations of European plants were not yet observed. Species were naturalized in only 4.2% of their suitable regions outside of Europe (range filling) and in 0.4% of their unsuitable regions (range expansion). Anthropogenic habitat disturbance primarily explained the difference between observed and expected naturalized European floras, as did the number of treaties relevant to invasive species. Species of ornamental and economic value and with large specific leaf area performed better at filling and expanding beyond their expected range. Main conclusions: The naturalization of alien plant species is explained by climate matching but also by the regional level of human development, the introduction pressure associated with the ornamental and economic values of the species and their adaptation to disturbed environments., Robin Pouteau was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 31901176) and Taizhou University (2018YQ001). Carsten Meyer acknowledges funding by the Volkswagen Foundation through a Freigeist Fellowship (A118199), and additional support by iDiv, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG–FZT 118, 202548816). Petr Pyšek and Jan Pergl were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (EXPRO grant 19-28807X) and the Czech Academy of Sciences (long-term research development project RVO 67985939). Idoia Biurrun and Juan Antonio Campos were supported by the Basque Government (IT936-16). Gianmaria Bonari, Milan Chytrý, Ilona Knollová, Anna Kuzemko and Corrado Marcenò were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (19-28491X). Rosario G. Gavilán was supported by Madrid Government project REMEDINAL (P2018/EMT-4338). Jens-Christian Svenning considers this work a contribution to his VILLUM Investigator project ‘Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World’ funded by VILLUM FONDEN (16549). Mark van Kleunen was supported by the German Research Foundation DFG (264740629). The authors appreciate the helpful comments by three anonymous referees and the Handling Editor, Melodie A. McGeoch.

The abstract is available here: https://uscholar.univie.ac.at/o:1597553

Unter biologischen Invasionen versteht man die durch den Menschen verursachte Verschleppung von Arten in neue Regionen außerhalb ihres natürlichen Verbreitungsgebietes. Ein Teil dieser Arten, sogenannte invasive gebietsfremde Arten, können verheerende ökologische und sozio-ökonomische Auswirkungen haben und wurden kürzlich als ein wichtiger Treiber des globalen Wandels und Biodiversitätsverlusts identifiziert. Aufgrund des harschen Klimas und des vergleichsweise geringen menschlichen Nutzungsdrucks galten Hochgebirge lange als relativ resistent gegenüber biologischen Invasionen. Auch wenn Studien zeigen, dass die Anzahl an gebietsfremden Arten mit zunehmender Seehöhe abnimmt, sind derzeit nichtsdestotrotz weltweit etwa 200 gebietsfremde Pflanzenarten in der alpinen Höhenzone dokumentiert. Der überwiegende Anteil gebietsfremder Arten in Gebirgen sind Generalisten, die aus Tieflagen hochwandern. Obwohl viele dieser Arten momentan noch nicht mit den klimatischen Bedingungen in Hochgebirgslagen zurechtkommen, wird prognostiziert, dass sie diese Barriere in Zukunft unter veränderten Klimabedingungen vermehrt überwinden können. Hingegen werden einheimische Artengemeinschaften der Hochgebirge im Zuge des globalen Wandels zunehmend destabilisiert und somit anfälliger für biologische Invasionen. Das Zusammenspiel von mehreren Treibern des globalen Wandels stellt somit ein erhöhtes Risiko für die einheimischen Artengemeinschaften der Hochgebirge weltweit dar. Durch den bisher noch relativ geringen Anteil an gebietsfremden Arten im Hochgebirge ist jedoch die Gelegenheit gegeben, rechtzeitig Präventivmaßnahmen zu setzen und den kombinierten Einfluss von Klimawandel und biologischen Invasionen abzumildern. Climate change and biological invasions in high elevation ecosystems: Biological invasions are the redistribution of species through human agency into regions outside of their native range. A subset of these species, so called invasive alien species, can have dramatic ecologic and socio-economic effects. Recently, they have been identified as one of the main drivers of global change and loss of biodiversity. Due to the harsh climatic conditions and comparably low anthropogenic pressure, high elevation ecosystems have been perceived as relatively stable to biological invasions and studies show a decrease of alien species richness with increasing elevation. Nevertheless, globally, about 200 alien plant species have been documented in alpine altitudes to date. Most of these species are generalists that have been introduced to lowland regions and ascend up the mountains. Although, many species are still not able to cope with the climatic conditions in high elevation ecosystems, it has been projected, that they will be able to overcome this barrier under future changing climatic conditions. In contrast, native communities in high elevation ecosystems are becoming increasingly destabilized in the course of global change and thus more susceptible to biological invasions. Hence, the combination of several drivers of global change poses a great risk to the native communities in high elevation ecosystems globally. Since there are still few alien species in the high mountains compared to the lowlands, there is a large option space to develop precautionary measures and reduce the combined influence of climate change and biological invasions.

Commonly used in the literature to refer to the "attractiveness", "appeal", or "beauty" of a species, charisma can be defined as a set of characteristics - and the perception thereof - that affect people's attitudes and behaviors toward a species. It is a highly relevant concept for invasion science, with implications across all stages of the invasion process. However, the concept of invasive alien species (IAS) charisma has not yet been systematically investigated. We discuss this concept in detail, provide a set of recommendations for further research, and highlight management implications. We review how charisma affects the processes associated with biological invasions andIASmanagement, including species introductions and spread, media portrayals, public perceptions of species management, research attention, and active public involvement in research and management. Explicit consideration ofIAScharisma is critical for understanding the factors that shape people's attitudes toward particular species, planning management measures and strategies, and implementing a combination of education programs, awareness raising, and public involvement campaigns.

Perspectives in conservation are based on a variety of value systems. Such differences in how people value nature and its components lead to different evaluations of the morality of conservation goals and approaches, and often underlie disagreements in the formulation and implementation of environmental management policies. Specifically, whether a conservation action (e.g. killing feral cats to reduce predation on bird species threatened with extinction) is viewed as appropriate or not can vary among people with different value systems. Here, we present a conceptual, mathematical framework intended as a tool to systematically explore and clarify core value statements in conservation approaches. Its purpose is to highlight how fundamental differences between these value systems can lead to different prioritizations of available management options and offer a common ground for discourse. The proposed equations decompose the question underlying many controversies around management decisions in conservation: what or who is valued, how, and to what extent? We compare how management decisions would likely be viewed under three different idealised value systems: ecocentric conservation, which aims to preserve biodiversity; new conservation, which considers that biodiversity can only be preserved if it benefits humans; and sentientist conservation, which aims at minimising suffering for sentient beings. We illustrate the utility of the framework by applying it to case studies involving invasive alien species, rewilding, and trophy hunting. By making value systems and their consequences in practice explicit, the framework facilitates debates on contested conservation issues, and complements philosophical discursive approaches about moral reasoning. We believe dissecting the core value statements on which conservation decisions are based will provide an additional tool to understand and address conservation conflicts.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity., Distribution of uncertainty if 15 major drivers of biological invasions will exhibit major impacts on the environment by 2050 under a best‐ and worst‐case scenario.

The year 2020 and the next few years are critical for the development of the global biodiversity policy agenda until the mid-21st century, with countries agreeing to a Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Reducing the substantial and still rising impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) on biodiversity will be essential if we are to meet the 2050 Vision where biodiversity is valued, conserved, and restored. A tentative target has been developed by the IUCN Invasive Species Specialist Group (ISSG), and formally submitted to the CBD for consideration in the discussion on the Post-2020 targets. Here, we present properties of this proposal that we regard as essential for an effective Post-2020 Framework. The target should explicitly consider the three main components of biological invasions, i.e. (i) pathways, (ii) species, and (iii) sites; the target should also be (iv) quantitative, (v) supplemented by a set of indicators that can be applied to track progress, and (vi) evaluated at medium- (2030) and long-term (2050) time horizons. We also present a proposed set of indicators to track progress. These properties and indicators are based on the increasing scientific understanding of biological invasions and effectiveness of responses. Achieving an ambitious action-oriented target so that the 2050 Vision can be achieved will require substantial effort and resources, and the cooperation of a wide range of stakeholders.